#Athletics director of player personnel Billy Owens is at Chicago today, with Jake Peavy going for the #WhiteSox.
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) July 25, 2013
I’m going to guess that Peavy isn’t going to be making his next start in a White Sox uniform.
The A’s are a longshot for Peavy especially as it looks like the Red Sox and Cardinals will be involved but it doesn’t hurt to dream.
I don’t consider anyone in Oakland’s system other than Russell and Gray as untouchable in a package for Peavy.
Other deadline related links:
Sorry pro Utley folks: CSN Philly’s Insider says that signs point to an extension for Utley rather than a trade.
Rangers are interested in everyone.
In that last Rosenthal link, he mentions the A’s being interested in Ervin Santana as well as Peavy.
Not sure why. I doubt we’d necessarily be ditching anyone on our current roster for anything but Utley.
I guess it could be contingency planning in case talks with Utley collapse. They also could be looking to buy, in which case they are there to watch our opponents. I, however, will just go ahead and assume we’re getting Cliff Lee.
Ha. That was my hopeful moment too. Never going to happen, but hey, I’m all for a little dreaming for Lee.
Beats nightmaring for Papelbon.
Yuck. No FKING THANKS.
Jesse Chavez for Carlos Ruiz!
They want a CFer, and while it looks like Dickerson is going to them, Id love to sell them young
#shame
I too would like to miss
readHeyman’s “insights”OH YAY maybe we can get something for Young that we can use to trade for someone else.
Young/Rosie for Lee/Utley? Seems fair, if the Phillies throw in some cash.
And a shrubbery
Stanton pls kthx.
With no Utley available, 2B looks pretty barren. Acquire SS, move Lowrie to 2B full time?
That said, Miss Slusser also said that Philly was scouting our last few series…
Thanks, and go As.
The problem is that there’s no good shortstops available either. The time to solve shortstop was last deadline (don’t look at Hanley’s stats, don’t look at Hanley’s stats) or last offseason (Yunel, sigh).
Thanks, and go As.
You sir win todays FK
Have we discussed Ian Desmond? Rizzo has to be thinking about a strategic retreat from this season with the team 9 games out, and he and Billy do seem to have a rapport.
Presumably he would be expensive, with two more years of team control.
But that would also work out well for the A’s, since that’s right around when Russell is expected to be ready.
Not available, too good and too many years of control left and the Nationals intend to compete the next few years.
Other than that though…
Yeah, I think the package needed for Desmond would be more than the A’s could/are willing to give
there was the espinosa argument here a few weeks back
That’s what I want. Upside/cheap, may utterly fail but can’t be worse than Green/Rosales
His AAA numbers are worse than Rosales’s major league numbers.
This season.
Which is the season he broke his wrist
He sure can and probably would be.
And if you want to put weight on his recent hot 10-game streak in AAA, then we should also mention that in 8 games since then, he is batting .161 / .235 / .161
This. Beyond my usual objection to the “can’t be worse” hyperbole, it seems especially wrong here.
Espinosa might be an interesting reclamation project for a non-contending team, or for the off-season, but doesn’t make sense for a team in the middle of a pennant race.
If he plays above average ss that would be a 1 WAR upgrade for the the team so even if he hits like shit it would be better.
“hits like shit” and “plays above average ss” are rather vague terms, and that 1 WAR number you seem to have pulled out of your ass has no base in reality.
This year Espinosa has produced negative WAR (-0.6 fWAR and -0.8 bWAR). That number is even lower if you only consider his production after he broke his wrist, the time in which he posted a .153/.179/.246 line with 41 K and 2 BB. There are poor hitters, then there is fifty feet of crap and then there is Espinosa with a broken wrist.
There is no indication in his AAA performance that his wrist got significantly better, meaning that our best educated guess is that he would perform on a similar or a slightly better level.
Rosales on the other hand has been replacement level for his career and his 2013 is in line, meaning that we should expect 0 WAR from him going on (and that is being generous on the low side because his bWAR is much better than his fWAR). For Espinosa to hit like shit he has been this year and be a 1 WAR upgrade he would have to generate 16 runs value on fielding or equivalent of some 50 fielding runs over the season. The best season Ozzie Smith has ever mustered was worth 35 fielding runs.
So if Espinosa keeps hitting like shit he’s been since breaking his wrist, and plays above average shortstop, he could indeed be a 1 WAR upgrade, provided he fields 50% better than the best defensive season in the history of baseball, all with the same broken wrist and rotator cuff injury. It is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it.
In reality, smart money is that he would be closer to a 1 WAR downgrade than 1 WAR upgrade over Rosales for this year.
So far the A’s in total have a -3.4 UZR at 2b and a -9.8 UZR at SS.
So a league average short stop would save about 6 Runs at SS for the rest of the year if the rate continues. Using UZR/150 Lowrie will cost a little more than 5 runs for the rest of the year. Espinosa based on his UZR/150 is likely add 2 runs.
Lowrie is about average for his career at 2b (though with a really tiny sample) Sogard would be about 2 FRAA for the rest of the year based on his SSS UZR
However Sogard hits for -2 BRAA for the rest of the season if you ask ZIPs and Lowrie hits at +2
So you are looking at a swing of about 8 runs in defenses. Rounded thats a 1 WAR upgrade in the defense
So basically you can sit on a hill of fire ants and have them bite your taint
Judging on what you wrote above, I guess you were arguing that he would be 1 WAR upgrade on the defense, not overall. Judging on their career rates, that is a rather fair assumption if his injury had no effect on his fielding. Sorry for apparently misunderstanding what you were trying to say.
However, the bigger point stands. He has to play offense, too. And any upgrade or downgrade to the team has to take into account both offense and defense, as you well know. And you can not say that he can hit like shit and be better than Rosales, when he has been hitting like shit and has been notably worse than Rosales. Overall, our best educated guess is that Espinosa would be a worse player than Rosales for the rest of this season, his superior defense accounted for.
He has a long history of being better than Rosales, is not needed in Washington, will heal from his injury and can play a credible MLB SS which is not something that anyone we have can do, something we will need next year as well.
Now, that’s a whole different argument.
The argument on hand is if he will provide an upgrade for the rest of this season.
No it is not.
It is. You yourself have been arguing with the stats for the remainder of this season.
Nobody is arguing whether healthy Espinosa is better than Rosales. I mean 3 > 0 is the math most of us can do.
Apparently, the argument is what the argument is.
Actually this is what EC objected to:
That statement is why he should be acquired and is true.
Ah, the old proof by assertion. Two can play that game.
No it is not true. Not even close.
I showed my work elsewhere, it is hardly just an assertion.
Oh bullshit.
First the numbers do not support the “can’t be worse” statement. In fact, they could not even possibly support such a statement. This has already been covered by the “would you bet at 10:1” question.
Second, even putting aside the effect of his broken wrist on his fielding, I’m not sure why we should assume that someone who’s played all of 39 MLB games at SS would be above average there.
Third, you have completely butchered the math anyway. You’re trying to show above that Espinosa would be worth a win in defense alone. (At least I think that’s your claim.)
Somewhere along the way you include a four run offsensive difference between Sogard and Lowrie which makes no sense in two different ways:
1) We are supposed to be just looking at defense in this part. Or so I thought.
2) Lowrie is in the lineup every day either way. If you do want to do the full analysis including offense, the relevant offensive comparison is between Sogard (or some combination of Sogard and Rosales) and Espinosa.
And of course then there are the two more runs for “rounding.”
Oh, fuck, I haven’t even realized he only played fewer than 40 games as a shortstop. Dear lord…
You miss understand my point.
Espinosa -> SS
Lowrie -> 2b
Sogales -> Bench
Which means Espinosa’s defense – (Lowrie’s SS D + Rosales’ SS D) has to be > or = (Sogard’s defense + Lowrie’s platoon 2b defense) – Lowrie’s full time 2b defense
Thats where the moving from Lowrie to Sogard Cost runs defensively. But that is also butressed by the fact that Sogards/Rosales’ bat gets pulled (and I wasn’t even counting on the Rosales AB) which is why hes is about 1 WAR of value for the team that he can piss away by bing 10 runs worse than average over the next 50 games and still be the same as what we are currently getting from the position. Plus we would get a healthy Espinosa moving forward.
No I did not misunderstand your point. You did the math wrong.
Tagline?
Further Zips projects a 5 run difference for the rest of the year, which I am willing to bet that his wrist gets better enough that hes not a run every 10 games worse than his projections.
Zips doesn’t know he broke his wrist.
Do you even bother reading what I write?
I do. It’s about your willingness to bet on something, but I don’t really understand what it is. The part I did understand is that you were citing Zips, which is completely irrelevant for a hurt player.
OK, I think I understand it now. You are willing to bet that Espinosa’s value as a hitter will be at least “[ZIPS Projection for the rest of the season] – 5 runs”, right? Sorry, sometimes I find it hard to get what you are saying on first try.
So, in other words, you are projecting Espinosa to hit for wOBA of .265 or better (using MLB or MLE data), after hitting .197 so far. OK.
Am I supposed to accept or decline the bet now, or did you only mean it as a sign of your certainty that he will improve?
OK, I think I understand it now.
So you are not actually proposing a bet with over/under on .265 MLB/MLE wOBA for Espinosa for the rest of the year?
I mean if it is true that he can’t be worse than that, you would be well off proposing a tenfold return on anyone’s bet, because you can’t lose, right?
Dude what are you talking about. Why wouldn’t I be able to lose? Where did I say it was a sure thing? Reading what I have written is not too much to ask if you are going to argue with me.
Please show me where I said that Espinosa should have 10 to 1 odds that he will out perform -5 runs off is Zips.
1. If a statement that Espinosa can’t be worse than Rosales is true, than per definition you can’t lose any bet in which you bet that he won’t be worse.
2. Espinosa needs to bat to the tune of wOBA of .265 or better not to be worse than Rosales, assuming and accepting their career level of fielding.
3. If there is a bet that you can’t lose, you don’t care what odds you give, you want to give as attractive odds as possible to attract as many bettors as possible. For example I would give you 100000:1 odds if you wanted to bet me saying that Zagreb is not the capital of Croatia.
Ergo, you should accept any bets, regardless of odds, that Espinosa will bat .265 or better for the rest of the year.
Anyway, this whole thing is quickly turning into a patented debating for the sake of debate instead actual substance. There are some numbers down in the thread. If you want a discussion on that, fine, otherwise I’m out.
For the record, the “can’t be worse” was mine, not DFA’s.
I’d support a cheap acquisition both because I think it would be nice to have a credible defensive SS this season, and I think he’d be a big asset next season. Even if he’s just a late-inning defense guy this year that’s some benefit.
@nm
I don’t have any problem with the reasoning that he’d be a great asset next season if healthy. But if we assume he will be a 3 WAR shortstop under a cheap contract, then he won’t be cheap to obtain.
It is the the can’t be worse/would be better even if he hits like shit part, that I don’t agree with at all.
Understandable. Though I think he in fact can’t be worse than Grant Green. And defensive superiority at a premium position plus hitting upside at some point is a meaningful upgrade in a tight race with shitty defense in the MI
I have no idea what the real cost would be, but I get the sense he’s worn out his welcome in DC and they have plenty of system strength at his positions.
Dude you are just diminishing my faith in your reading comprehension at this point. I don’t know how many times I need to say this:
BET = COLLOQUIALISM FOR I WOULD MAKE A TRADE WITH THAT BELIEF
Look, I shouldn’t accept any odds that xyz will happen. Because this isn’t a one dimensional issue: Rosales could play better, Rosales could play worse, Espinosa could do the same. Dude could get hit by the bus from the Nats AAA club to his flight to OAK. Sogard might shit the bed with the bat or stop fielding well.
He has one year of just barely league average hitting and he has always had poor plate discipline issues that have really manifested themselves this year.
“Hitting upside” would refer to someone like Carlos Ruiz: someone who’s struggling this year but has put up wRC+ of 127 and 151 in two of the last 3 years.
I don’t think Ruiz is availible, but would be more than fine getting him.
Re upside, he’s had two full uninjured seasons and put up 103 and 94 wRC+ (each season good for >3 WAR because of his premium position and adequate defense).
That’s considerable hitting upside when his broken-wrist talent level (as EC correctly states) is in the 22-60 wRC+ range. If you use him sparingly as a defensive replacement you eke out a few defensive runs saved (but nothing like 1 WAR), and if his wrist actually heals in the meantime, you have a legitimately improved late-September/playoff roster. And a fix at our thinnest position for next year.
@nm
Using him as a defensive replacements and alowing him NOT to bat for a month or so is actually a good idea, as this might help with the wrist.
Only one caveat – his observed broken-wrist talent level is not in the 22-60 range, it is lower, more like 15-40 (I ran the numbers on other computer). His MLB numbers include pre-injury stats, and his AAA numbers are relative to AAA competition and drop quite a bit when ran through MLE calculator.
His walk rate is likely to move toward his career numbers not the 4% that it is.
@nm
1. My original comment addressed specifically your “hitting upside” comment. I continue to fail to see how barely average hitters who’ve completely fallen off a cliff recently have hitting upside. YMMV
2. You are basing his overall production on UZR numbers that are both a)small sample b)mostly at 2B, not the position we would want him for
3. And then you make assumptions that he can perform above average at a tougher position, which we have little usable data on.
Yes, if he does positive things then he will be a positive addition. But you and DFA are making far too many claims in this vein with poor/little data, which is what really sparked this entire argument.
Upside is that he could become an average hitter (and thus quite valuable as a player) again if his wrist heals. Upside need not be “he could become Mike Trout” to be important.
The claims I’m making are: 1. couldn’t be worse than what we have (which I now think is wrong as to Rosales and right as to GG), 2. should be low cost (which we haven’t really discussed, and can’t really know), and 3. has a lot of upside late this year and next year (which, if his wrist heals, remains true whether or not he ALSO allows Lowrie to play 2B).
This is just a hilariously terrible use of UZR/150.
Espinosa is also playing with a torn labrum which he and the Nationals have stubbornly refused to fix. Because of this delay in fixing a major injury, we have little reason not to believe that it’ll affect next year for him as well.
Where did you see the labrum? I thought he only fucked up his wrist?
I might be slightly mistaken, this article says torn rotator cuff. I dunno, torn something in the shoulder.
It is rotator cuff.
Non throwing shoulder
Sadly, Dave Cameron’s theory that the Rangers are saving Profar for a Stanton package this offseason sounds very plausible to me.
Oh yeah! Well we can offer them Weeks!!! AND BARTON!
By burning a year of service time and watching him put up middling stats in the majors?
Yeah, that’s weird. They can’t really afford to be without his potential production the way they are hitting this season, but then he’s not really hitting either.
makes sense. Corner outfielder and all
I saw something yesterday on MaEl. Being lazy, is he any sort of upgrade over the current black holes (other than friggin UNICORNS and stuff).
Not really.
Probably a smallish improvement as the short half of a platoon.
I’m wondering if Hudson going down influences Philly at all. That loss has to hurt the Braves quite a bit and means they have a slightly better chance of catching up.
Wow.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2377154/Eight-ton-orca-leaps-15ft-air-finally-capture-dolphin-hour-chase.html
The url alone is worth a wow.
Fuck the fucking fascist fucking Daily Mail.
That is all.
PSHA I saw that shit in Free Willy
GOD FUCKING DAMMIT FIFA
Thanks, and go As.
Hey, at least it fits nicely with the MLS calendar.
i’m hoping that’s as likely as artificial stadium clouds.
—
your ronaldinho was a sweetheart yesterday in the post-game interview. no dummy, and completely ego-less for someone who’s won at least one of each of: la liga, suprcopa, carioca, confederations, copa america, world cup, and now copa libertadores. (only missing club world cup, and he’s now eligible for that next year.)
but i really thought olimpia would continue their win libertadores once every 11 years streak. (ok, one time they did it in 12, but this would have gotten them back on track.)
if you didn’t watch the game, olimpia went into it up 2-0 on global, and mineiro scored both of theirs in the second half to tie it up and send to extra and penalties, where they won. but olimpia was so close. sooooo close. just one goal would have sealed it probably. like this one. or maybe this one. that first one, ok, he tried and it didn’t happen. but that second one… what is he doing?? i mean before the slip, he’s beaten everybody, a medium tap puts it in, WHY does he try to cut behind the player he’s already beat??
another great after the game moment, when the roaming interviewer was on field and he asked the booth if they wanted an interview with the winning goalie (who caught the first penalty by taking 3 steps forward before the kick) and from the booth, the color commentary guy said, “naaaah, i don’t want to talk to a cheater.” (but they did eventually talk to him and asked him about moving forward, which he answered with, well, the ref let me do it, so…)
oops, that first missed goal was mineiro’s. this is the one i meant.
wonder what happened to chucho exactly… but yeah, late july is exactly mid-cup.
the season has always been a thing. southern-hemi/winter cups always seem cheap or something (not the 78, of course). and you don’t have to go to quatar to have a summer one that’s too hot. wonder if they can just adjust the entire schedule from now on and make it a spring/fall event to benefit the entire globe, and make all the confederations align their tournaments to it with the promise that it won’t change again?
Peavy starts the 8th at already 115+ pitches, promptly gives up his third homer of the game. That’s the type of usage you’d expect when you don’t think the guy’s going to pitch for you much longer.
You’d think they’d pull him to retain his trade value.
The Rangers somehow lost to those Yankees. Kuroda’s that good I guess.
Is Kuroda trade-bait? I would rather have him than Peavy.
I guess they are only 3 games out of a wild-card spot, and seem to think they are buyers. But they should really be sellers.
They should be able to get more than the Garza package if they decided to move him. Maybe considerably more. I don’t know whether Cashman has the guts to make that move though.
I’m hoping they’ll by buyers, destroying their future for this season, and still end up missing the playoffs.
this.
Fucking people.
http://deadspin.com/woman-sobs-and-rants-after-not-getting-autographs-at-re-914962916
hopefully this will teach her to set some priorities in her life
Hold on a minute, these things have feet!!??!!
About Danny Espinosa (continuing here to have the width for the jpg).
These are his hitting statistics since he broke his wrist:
When he broke his wrist in mid April, Espinosa took five days off. When he came back, he played for another 6 weeks before being correctly diagnosed, upon which he took another 10 day break and started playing in AAA. Overall, he had just under 300 PA and the results were dismal, without much improvement. His power took a huge hit and he strikes out a ton, both effects that can be easily tied to a hurting wrist, as anyone who has ever swung a bat can imagine.
His career line means something only if he is healthy, and his batting results clearly show that he is not. I personally do not see much reason why he should improve in this season, barring a longer rest, as wrist injuries do not heal by swinging the bat.
His .197 wOBA (as ooposed to his career line of .306) would switch him from being a career 3 WAR/year player to being a -3 WAR/year player. Even only sticking with his AAA line, he would be a -2 WAR player. Although there are only 300 PA, some stats already have “stabilized” for the “broken wrist Espinosa” (I hate saying stabilize, but what is meant is the point where r=.7), such as K% and ISO. This performance is real.
Now if you are pinning your hopes that Espinosa’s wrist will suddenly heal while not getting any rest, fine. I wouldn’t, but we don’t know that. What we do know is that right now Espinosa is a significantly worse option than Rosales.
I will target Espinosa in next year’s fantasy draft, because if his wrist heals during off-season, he will be underestimated by projection systems. But I don’t want to have to do anything with him in 2013.
I think you are not regressing the walk rate enough to his career numbers.
I am not regressing anything. His career numbers don’t matter here, because he spent his career playing without a broken wrist.
Right which is silly. There should be some regression since you just spent a thread complaining about falsely assigning points away from the population norm to regress to arbitrarily, which by not regressing such a small sample size is essentially what you are doing.
Further, are you looking at the effect that platooning him would have? We love that shit here and both Rosales’ and Sogard’s numbers are boosted by it.
Espinosa is a switch hitter.
most switch hitters have a good side.
So? Doesn’t mean he isn’t better from one side (or that what you’re replacing isn’t different).
You have both missed the point so thoroughly that I regret even getting back into this conversation.
Yes, of course switch hitters can be better at one side (yes, I remember Bobby Kielty).
But the question is whether or not you actually know specifically how much Espinosa is better or worse at one side. Do you have a large enough sample of Espinosa’s splits to make that determination? Have you regressed the sample? Do you even have the smallest amount of certainty that the effect is significant enough over the current incumbents to matter?
Until you actually have reasonably certain answers to these questions (spoiler alert: you don’t), posing questions like “further, are you looking at the effect that platooning him would have?” as if there is a certain positive effect that only you have had the good sense to account for is utterly meaningless.
Plus, if he’s going to be part of a platoon, they have to pro-rate his (supposed) defensive gain over only the games he actually plays.
As it happens, Espinosa’s better side (observed, not necessarily true talent, as you point out) is as a right-handed hitter.
Looking at his numbers there is a pretty significant split and while I didn’t do regressions EC was projecting is bat at 22 wRC+ so I think it is fair to ask that question. I used Zips and suggested that 5 runs or so off that was reasonable since we don’t have a Zip(withbrokenwrist). I think thats just as fair as using his current numbers.
And why not “15 runs or so” or “2 runs or so”? Before I insult you, I am asking – what math led you to number 5?
Because its the exactly the same method you are using… guesstimating.
They are both guesses, true.
One involves going to the game logs, calculating what he did in MLB post-injury, then running his MilB numbers through MLE calculator, adding those up, getting a 300 PA base, citing studies that show that his most affected performance indicators have a meaningful significance after 60 PA or 180 AB, showing how he only took a 10-day break and how that didn’t help, indicating that injury will probably not be cured by playing every day, and THEN guessing that barring additional information we are not privy to, our best guess forward is that his rest of the season results — due to his obviously diminished skill — will be widely around the observed talent level.
The other involves napoing a number five.
My bad, exactly the same method.
Hey dumbass you don’t think ZIPs looks at his performance thus far? Huh wonder why they call it a Rest of the Season projection.
I think the following are uncontroversial:
1. He was a very good player pre-wrist (and non-throwing shoulder)
2. He is not currently a very good player
3. We don’t know whether he will become a very good player again
4. There may be ways to use him that would provide bits of incremental value now, while waiting to see whether he becomes a very good player again
Platooning is an attempt to think about applications of #4, and I don’t see why the fact he is a switch hitter is enough of a response to shut it off.
THIS
This is a fair summary. It is also totally different from the statement that started everything, namely that he can’t be any worse than Rosales, the one you might have made somewhat tongue in cheek, but the one and that was later fought (with faulty math) literally.
I’ve conceded that one. And to be fair, I was thinking about Rosales released and GG proving the future is shitty.
fair enough. cheers
Re switch hitting: I mentioned his switch hitting because the platoon advantage for switch hitters is generally less significant than that of strict right handed batters vs lefties (or vice versa), so it’s more difficult to ascertain if there is an advantage at all. Thus, the questions I posed above are even more important and hard to figure out.
To be even more precise, here are some facts that affect platooning splits for the hitters of designated handedness:
1. Hitting against same-handed pitcher is harder than hitting against opposite-handed pitcher
2. Hitting against left-handed pitcher is harder than hitting against right-handed pitcher
3. The hitting tool itself is not affected by pitcher’s handedness
These three facts allow us to use really large sample sizes to estimate the effects of #1 and #2, thus establishing our MLB prior to regress to.
When it comes to switch hitters, the parts of the puzzle are different:
#1 from above doesn’t apply
#2 applies
#3 doesn’t apply, as every batter has two different skill levels, one for hitting left-handed, and another for hitting right-handed
With the first group we know where to regress to, because we control for #3 and have reliable prior for #1 and #2. We know that it is harder to hit against the same-handed pitcher.
With the second group, we don’t, because it depends on their individual hitting skills. We don’t know if their hitting talent is better from the left side or from the right side. The only thing* we have is the observed level of talent, but this is a very dangerous way to chose a prior.
If we have a right-handed hitter who shows an observed platoon split of, say, 9.5%, then our best educated guess would be that his true talent level lies somewhere between 6.1% and 9.5%, depending on the sample size.
If we have a switch-hitter who shows an observed platoon split of that same 9.5% (favoring plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers), then we have a dilemma. Do we regress his numbers towards 6.8% better against left-handed, 6.8% better against right handed or 0? There is no easy answer, especially when the sample sizes are small. And to get to the point where r=0.7 on platooning we need roughly 2000 harmonic mean PA, or in most cases some 4000 PA overall.
Take Crisp for example. He has seven seasons where he hit better against right-handers and five where he hit better against left-handers. If we were to take any of those and regress in the direction of observed split, we would be actually moving further away from his true talent level (as we know now, because he doesn’t have an observed split for the career). Or Lowrie. First four years point in one direction, next two in another (perhaps also due to wrist injuries). With switch hitters, every player has different individual influences that make it hard to use a general prior.
* I did indeed try to find a pattern by controlling for the handedness of throwing, but the results were almost equally all over the board. The fact is that switch hitters do have platoon splits, but that it is much harder to know the direction in which to regress them to.
Aren’t there some guys with really different profiles (like a high-average slap hitter from one side and lower-average power hitter from the other), or am I just remembering season-to-season noise
Could very well be, but the core of the problem remains
That’s a very good point, as finding true talent level for platoon splits of switch-hitters is a nightmare
I would regress if there was a population of players playing with the broken wrist that I could use as a prior and if I was not clearly stating that this are his numbers after the wrist injury.
This is the same as saying I would regress to the population of Dana Evelands
No it is not. Are you really saying that players with injuries perform as players without injuries?
As I have explained yesterday, when searching for a prior you try to find people of equal skill group. Major leaguers, MLB shortstops, MLB right-handed shortstops…
What would be wrong would be for me to regress him towards players that have sub .200 wOBA, because that would be regressing based on observed talent.
But regressing Espinosa towards his own career norms or towards a general MLB population is not regressing him towards the skill group he belongs to.
I’m sure there is a population of players playing through injury out there.
Can you identify them to use their stats decline as a prior?
Btw. I am not trying to be dickish. I know you can’t. That is a challenge – while there very well might be a group of players who have played through similar wrist injuries, we don’t have such data available to use in a regression. I would love to have it, but we don’t. For me, the best guess going forward (until he gets sufficient rest to allow it to heal) is his observed talent level with pretty big error bars.
I certainly don’t have the time to work one up, but it isn’t an undoable task. There are lots of thoroughly-documented cases of players playing through injuries (e.g. Chavez for us). The issue would be either manually identifying them or doing some sort of clever automation.
It is not undoable in theory, but almost so in praxis if you want any reliable sample size.
That could well be right. Though it seems there are people with shocking amounts of time who use it for baseball research, and this might be an interesting question to answer.
You or I could never do it.
Did you just say there was something ec couldn’t do?!
OH SHIIIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiiiiiiii
new house and everything, he is probably just confused
I actually have a problem downloading the MLBAM data recently. It will download a game or two and the the connection will be shut down by the host. I am almost suspecting it is a regional thing, because Brian Cartwright uses some of the same scripts and it works fine for him.
Which is a shame, because every time I gather little motivation to dig into something, I lose it all on fucking around trying to get the data, and I have been repeatedly asked by BP to do a piece for them and the Annual is coming up and studes has asked more than once if I could contribute something. There will be a pretty cool line-up this year, btw.
You guys have any idea for a topic?
Efficacy of platoon advantages as a team-wide strategy (i.e. why the A’s remain awesome, so far)
I did that already.
Right.
The other issue would be accounting for the severity/impact of the injury. More I think about it, the more I think it is impossible to pull off.
Take a hamstring strain, for example. It has hardly an effect on how hard you hit the ball, yet it will affect the batting line, both on infield hits and stretching hits to doubles. It will not hamper the HR ability for example.
A wrist injury will affect the hitting ability and it will manifest in diminished power all over board, but not in the running part of the batting.
Then you run into “bruised wrist” versus “broken wrist” issues.
Then you run into “went on the DL for 20 days” versus “played through it”.
Healthy MLB players are an extremely tight bunch as far as the skills distribution is concerned. Injured ones are not. We do get some help in the selection by the fact that some are placed on DL and some are deemed fit to play, but even those who play will have much, much wider distribution of skill than the one that would be really helpfull to chose as a prior.
And also saying that me showing what Espinosa has done this year without regressing it is silly makes no sense. Whether you want to regress it some point or not, and as I said the choice of a prior is extremely difficult here, you can not call the presentation of facts silly when it clearly says what it is presenting.
You aren’t saying these are the facts you are saying this is symptomatic of his likely production going forward.
No, it only says as the title of the table “Post-wrist production”. I address separately why I don’t think he will improve.
and I think his walk rate will climb and therefore improve his overall batting line. Your point?
ZipS projects Espinosa to hit .294 wOBA for the rest of the season
For Espinosa to meet your projection of being at most 5 runs worse than that over ~1/3 of the season he has to hit at least ~.265
For Espinosa to meet those requirements by, as you suggest, improved walk rate, he would have to perform at the 225% of what he did when he was healthy, or in other words, turn into Joey Votto, who is the only player in the MLB who has the walk rate in that vicinity.
So, I guess that my point is that it is OK not to do any math when coming up with numbers, but that it is also OK to reflect upon realization that such numbers don’t make any sense.
I was pointing out one area of likely regression to his career statistics not saying that would make it up.
Closing the book on 2013 Danny Espinosa (barring an unexpected September call-up to the MLB, his season is over), let’s look at what he did after our big debate here and put it into some context:
The ROS projection is the line I calculated as our best guess going forward, based on the combination of his performance in MLB and AAA after the injury scaled to 140 PA. The red line below that is what he actually did. He failed to hit a home run (which might or might not have been some bad luck) but his BABIP was significantly higher (which might or might not have been been some good luck). But overall, that was a mighty fine projection if I may say so (and I will take the liberty to say so after being called a dumbass).
So, I guess the learning here is that one should never ever use ZiPS (or any other automated projection system) for the ROS projections of clearly injured players. Just like you would have not used ZiPS ROS for Hudson on July 27th.
Now, just how bad was Espinosa after hurting his wrist? He had 421 plate appearances in which he had the MLE wOBA of .199, good for MLE wRC+ of 18 (meaning that his numbers, had he stayed with the Nationals, would have been wOBA .199, wRC+ 18).
Forget Rosales, forget Grant Green,had Espinosa not been sent down (or had he been picked up by another club), he would have collected his numbers on the MLB level and turned in the worst batting performance in the history of Major League Baseball (lowest wRC+ in a single season, min 400 PA). So, I guess the learning here is to be careful with your “can’t be worse than XY” stuff.
For those of you who prefer WAR, Broken Espinosa (over a full season, assuming that neither the shoulder nor the wrist injury affected his fielding and he was the same defender as for his career) was a -4 WAR player in 2013, which would have tied him with 1933 Jim Levey for the worst season in baseball history.
Smartass.
Which doesn’t mean that your method of projecting is right either.
No, that doesn’t mean that my method is right. That means that yours was horribly wrong.
And I have explained enough why the method I used was the best available method.
S = 1
sure…. really showed me that One tim. LOL
You made a fool of yourself back then. Perhaps that is enough and it is better not to reinforce that sentiment by blindly and stubbornly sticking to your debate team rhetoric without any meaningful substance.
your method of no regression is bad. not regressing players to their projections will do make you look foolish too.
Regression doesn’t work for injured players. If Usain Bolt breaks his leg and runs 100 m with his leg in a cast in 20 seconds, I will not regress that using the times when he was healthy and assume that his next 100 m with a broken leg will be in 11 seconds.
Seriously DFA, just let it go…
I think you are forgetting who had the quickest and most succinct argument about the possibility of getting Espinosa.
You, sir, win this argument.
and as a medical doctor who has evaluated the player, Im sure you will know that the player will not recover.
Sigh. The only thing that is sillier then the silly person sticking to his argument no matter what is the one arguing with him. I’m out.
Does this seem excessive to anyone?
As much as I dislike A-Rod, it does seem that the Yankees brass are bigger douchebags here. This from CBA:
Unless this is about who will pick up the check, they don’t seem to have grounds to punish him.
The relevant part of section D:
yeah, I don’t get it.
Yeah. This is purely about the Yankees not wanting to pay him.
If I were A-Rod, I’d just say “fine, I guess I’m hurt” and collect paychecks for the next umpteen years.
Exactly
can he get bobby bonilla’s number?
He’d need much higher payments…
Utley’s availability might depend on the noises in Domonic Brown’s head:
YOUNG FOR UTLEY!!!
get behind me in the line.
I don’t understand what Amaro means. (Granted, he probably doesn’t even understand what he means.) Does Brown being concussed make them more likely to buy (to replace his production) or to sell (because they will be even more hopeless without him)?
Angels acquire two organizational type guys from the Mets, but give up their #2 slot on the IFA market in return. That makes me happy.
By the way the Cubs have been really active on that front (and to a lesser extent, the Mets and the Dodgers), trading their way towards $1MM increase.
This is what the pools look like today:
And speaking of international signings, I don’t know if someone mentioned it when it happened, but while I was in Croatia Josh Chetwynd negotiated the highest signing bonus for a European player ever, $1.3MM that Royals gave to Marten Gasparini, beating out a previous high of $800k Twins gave to Max Kepler.
Gasparini is playing in the European U18 championship right now, where he is posting .310/.420/.540 line, despite only turning 16 few months ago. He is still raw at shortstop, with 6 errors in 6 games.
Saw that on MLBTR. It made me happy too.
The Cubs look destined for maximum penalties as well
Interesting experiment:
These are our future Wall Street experts, people
heh
Corey Black is a 21-yr old fireballer in High-A, who can touch 100 on the gun (B-/#12 NYY preseason). Tommy Kahnle is two years older, in AA, high strikeout, high-walk guy (HM Sickels pre-seson)
Little surprised that the financials are constructed in a way that Yankees pay more in 2014.
It’s a small world after all.
Also, LOLCubbies
Somebody started following me on twitter (good luck on that, I guess I realized I am too old for that, after all) and it said it was an ** writer and baseball enthusiast and so on. So I went over and found a recent article. It seems to be a kid who is into advanced statistics and as far as I could tell, the house-in sabermetrician now. He wrote an article summarizing pitch framing and it was a good effort. However, there was this comment in the thread ( no need to say from whom, I suppose):
Oh, those perfect eyes
Let’s not even talk about how the umpire being behind the pitcher might affect the batter’s focus. I don’t think it’s as big an issue for umpires who are lined up to one side while covering second base…but their angle is worse than a TV angle.
All the TV angle proves is that we have the benefit of an angle and proximity you can’t duplicate for an umpire in the real world.
I’m also not a big fan of the higher, straight-from-CF view mainly because it’s still not the prevalent one. It’s great for seeing corners but I’m terrible at judging the elevation of the pitch compared to the lower, to-one-side-of-CF traditional angle.
If all ballparks had the straight-from-CF view, I’d probably get used to it faster.
Yeah, but that plus a side-angle shot pretty much boxes things in perfectly.
Oh, absolutely.
I have absolutely no doubts that he marks down his interpretation of every single pitch and what the ump actually called, then goes and looks up the PitchF/X results and scores himself.
Anything less would be below a person who has had literally hundreds of interviews and conversations with experts, and has developed some unusual expertise
99th percentile eyes
unbelievable. No wait, believable.
Conveniently, today’s run will go right by today’s event at Waterfront Park. I’m gonna do whatever I can to get this thing passed.
For a number of years there I drove up to Portland for that last-weekend-in-July riverside event every year. About 4 or 5 years ago it just got too damned big and popular though.
It (Brewfest) completely snarled up traffic yesterday – took me nearly an hour and a half to get home from picking up Spawn2 in SW Portland – usually it’s about half of that. It ruined our “breakfast for dinner” plans.
There are a couple of smaller beerfests that are much less annoying. Well, the Holiday Brewfest is annoying, but it’s outside my office, so it’s not a big deal.
Even the last time I went, probably 2008 or so, Thursday night was still tolerable. I first attended that around 1998, and at that point only Saturday night got really crowded, and it stayed that way for a number of years. When they added Thursday that still gave me two good nights. Then Friday night got intolerable too and that’s when I gave up. No doubt, by now even Thursday is a zoo.
They get started on Wednesday now.
Fortunately, I am only responsible for getting myself home today and can get around the traffic.
We got in on that $5/ticket offer after the HR Derby, but can’t use ’em. They are in 201/8, and they are free in return for a nebulous directional promise regarding an adult bev at a future gathering of FKrs.
I can fwd you the email containing the print-at-home tix, although I already did that once and it seems to be balking at reconnecting me to them via the link. I can also create a .pdf of the printed tix, I spoze, in case that works.
Lemme know: tfcmail@gmail.com .
Related; anyone going tonight. If I can finish this nightmarish day, the Ace children and I will be heading up tonight.
Godspeed, Soldier!
Sorry you had a rough day. My car broke down on I-80 near Vallejo today. Transmission is shot. If ever there were a time to have a week-long, $5000 car repair thrust on me, now would be that time (having just received my bonus and right before going out of town for a week).
Yikes. Thank god for timing, but nothing worse than broken down on the side of the road and knowing it isnt a “AAA fix my flat” call.
It costs 5k to replace a transmission?
Why do you think AAMCO advertises so much? :)
Hey now. They say that half the transmissions they see don’t need to be replaced. Sounds awfully high to me, but what do I know?
I will be doing the unthinkable and going to the Giants game (though I prefer to think of it as the Cubs game). Some very good tickets were offered to me sans cost, and I haven’t been to that park in about 10 years. I figure now’s a good opportunity, on the theory that it may be more tolerable while the Giants suck (though, the Cubs suck worse).
But I clearly feel kind of guilty about it, since I’m writing out various justifications.
Make an A sign with your fingers, recite Our Rickey ten times, Holy Toledo ten times, and Glory Be to Billy ten times, and sign an A again.
All is forgiven.
I don’t know, the Cubs are half a game worse than the Giants in W-L record, but their run differential is 39 runs better.
Sadly, it looks like you get to see Edwin Jackson who is another (like the unfortunately no longer starting for the Angels Joe Blanton) pitcher with decent looking peripherals but mostly cover-your-eyes awful results.
I didn’t realize it was that close (or that the Cubs are better by a rational measure); I was just going based on the Cubs’ all-out sell-mode mentality. Interesting contrast in organizational approaches (by which I kind of mean LolGiants, though they can also probably be forgiven for sticking with it given their recent success).
Anyway, I pretty much plan to take in the whole experience, which, from what I understand, involves a lot of non-baseball-watching activity!
!!!!!!!
FKrs sure like they adult bevs…
Sickels revisits his preseason A’s top 20.
I didn’t realize how well Ian Krol has been pitching for the Nationals. More ammunition for DFA’s anti-Jaso campaign.
Bostick is definitely a guy to watch.
Is he 2B only, or can he play short?
2B only
Its not an anti Jaso campaign. Its a we gave up too much argument.
I prefer my more inflammatory phrasing.
I do enough of that on my own I really don’t need help thanks.
Krol is succeeding, but as a middle reliever. My regret is still about Cole, though we have to wait and see how that turns out.
Fun with smallish sample sizes fkwiz: name the four best-hitting A’s for the month of July.
Crisp
Norris
Sogard
Donaldson
Norris, Sogard, CY25, Green
More seriously, Donaldson instead of Green
Answers:
Norris .308/.455/.654
Jaso .242/.432/.394
Sogard .256/.273/.535
Young .227/.306/.477
Rare heckling opportunity presents itself:
Rare? Surely you jest.
Moscoso -> Giants (from Cubs AAA team)
I read that as from Cubs to AAA team
No one tell them he’s terrible. I want them to be surprised.
In the bathroom at ATT wednesday when I was there, Dave lemming said “Gaudin walked five, which is very un Gaudin like.”
I can’t wait to hear what they have to say about Moose Costco.
I am a few beers deep from a 7 year old b-day party. that is to say, I was at the giants game on wed. free tickets. they pipe in the radio feed to the bathroom. the announcer, dave flemming said that, and I heard it, in the bathroom.
So. Thoughts on trying to steal Cuddyer from the Rockies?
I’m down.
I’m thinking some chloroform, a plastic surgeon, and a fake identity ought to do the trick.
With Amaro, you just don’t know what that means. Gonzalez is considered to be mid-rotation guy, who could step up after a few weeks in the minors.
Remember Aledmis? Back in December I wrote this on him:
It turns out he really was younger and MLB has punished him, pushing his earliest possible signing date to Feb 19, 2014.
Baseball America, I beat you by a month.
Still want him.
So do I
I believe we have unanimous consent.
good work.
More fun with small sample sizes!
Michael Choice is hitting .341/.438/.561 over the last ten games. He’s up to .298/.389/.446 for the season. If he keeps it up, maybe he can take CY25’s job a couple of months earlier than planned.
Indeed, I last checked Choice’s stats about a week ago when he was barely outslugging Daric Barton. Like Ynoa, he picked a good time to play well.
yeah, I mean hes hitting less than Grant Green
Green has hit well! He’s also two years older than Choice.
(And in his 3rd year at AAA)
Second full season. You can’t really count 2011 when he only appeared in a few playoff games for them.
A homer and a double so far tonight!
Bring it, send down CY, Smith, or Yoenis.
Yoenis may actually really benefit from AAA, it’ll never happen, but I think it would do him some good.
My semi-realistic scenario is that he finishes the AAA season strong, kills it during a September call up, and then bumps CY25 from the playoff roster. He got another hit since I typed my earlier comment BTW…
That is glorious.
That last update said they’re sending the books out in August so that meet-up with Ken is quite possibly during the next homestand.
That would be just my luck, since I’ll be out of the country.
the design work is the best!
orange seats. nice touch
Yeah, I love the artwork and the text looks great too. What’s the professional opinion from AV?
Artist, in case it wasn’t already known:
http://www.markulriksen.com/
The style looked super familiar, which makes sense on account of all the New Yorker covers he has done.
looks awesome. i couldn’t change a thing on ulriksen. (and i won’t.)
Awesome. I hope this really gets legs, could be the last best chance to get Bill King into the Hall of Fame.
here’s the rub. i can’t detail or opine more, but word of mouth / grassroots is going to be key for this book.
This is a cool idea. Hope it works.
The funny thing is that that same church invested their capital in Wonga
Addressed in the article. Sounds like a small investment that is being filed under “shit happens”, whether that’s true or not.
Yeah, it was an indirect investment, but still funny, because it came to light only after repeated criticism of Wonga by church leaders.
DFA, is this your case?
Also: DFWAS
The Rage looked great on national TV.
Apparently rape is not rape if the woman doesn’t have an orgasm:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/22/usc-rape-investigation_n_3607954.html
(meant if there’s no orgasm)
deserving of investigation, yes.
But My bullshit meter is spiking. When there are those levels of hearsay about “what officials told [another woman]” I have to call time out. Wht “official? what was said? what was the “admission”?
Is this the same one that wasn’t rape because the man didn’t ejaculate from a few days ago?
Sorry can’t follow the link, I’m in a ‘good’ mood right now.
Guessing it’d be the same. Had another one or two cases mentioned as well.
Speaking of the R word, I made the mistake of listening to Damon Bruce’s national radio program this morning in the car, and in the course of a (stupid) argument with some jerk about why Pete Rose is banned for life while steroid users aren’t, Bruce said, “To me, Pete Rose committed the baseball equivalent of rape.” At that moment I decided to ban him for life from my radio dial.
good plan
Winterosterbating: Huddy on an incentive-laden deal?
Sold. He takes Colons spot, although those are mighty big pants to fill.
Take them both if Colon re-ups the same deal.
I’d take him right now. Sentimental grounds are enough, but on top ZiPS projects him for 3.56 ERA over his remaining 10 starts of the season. We could use that.
Did you see the url that Kay linked? Huddy had a brutal ankle fracture and won’t be able to resume baseball activities for four months (i.e. late November). I would say that his ZiPS RoS projection is even less reliable than Espinosa.
ZiPS h8r
Heh
I guess if you think that Espinosa will be below replacement level, then Hudson’s guaranteed 0 WAR for the rest of the season would be a better pick.
I think you are not regressing Hudson’s number of ankles enough
Our “insiders” would be useful if they could occasionally break stuff like this…
Speaking of “insiders,” I’m not sure what Paul Gutierrez is good for, if anything.
Seriously. Has there been ANYTHING from him? Ihavent even seen a “A’s may be actice” type garbage…
Well that’s a sticky one, would you prefer Heyman’s yarns and brocades, or radio silence, since there is really nothing to report?
Youre right, and if Im being honest I would be the first to complain if he shoveled out garbage.
I just want 2-3 Fkin A trades, is that so wrong?
You’re not alone, c’mon Billy!
I rikey.
I’ll hold judgement for IF it happens and for what.
As long as Russell and Gray stay unavailable, I think I’m okay w/ most scenarios as long as its not 2 current SP.
I think Choice is a sell high candidate for me.
does the bag include white shoes?
No, but lots of donuts for Bartolo
Eeesh
I’d be happy if he was the lefyt dh and smith was replaced by [insert catcher here]
lefty dh?
legit dh?
hefty dh?
Aw shitfuck.
So that’s why Vogt’s up…
Damn.
They have a 7 day DL now for concussions, which was a good idea for baseball to introduce. But Jaso sounds pretty bad now, so he might be out for longer than that.
Yeah, repeated concussions are no fun
I quit skateboarding after my third.
Ouch. No helmet?
Yep, street skater, 1985-2006, young and dumb.
You’d think that over 21 years at least one of those qualities would diminish
I did wear gear if I was on ramp or in a bowl, but it was extremely uncool to wear a helmet doing street in my day, absolutely no one did in the 80’s,90’s,00’s, still don’t for the most part unless it’s extreme daredevil stuff.
I wear a helmet religiously as a cyclist fwiw.
I know that from skiing. I wore the helmet for recreational skiing first time last year, because that was the only way to force my wife to wear one.
I watched the next door neighbors kid go into convulsions after falling and hitting his head on the street last week. Scary shit to watch, but he is fortunately OK.
Addison Russell played his first game last night back from injury
Wasn’t he injured at the start of the season? When did he get injured again?
About ten days ago. Hit by pitch = bruised thumb
Good to know that it’s not something we should worry about.
Korea strikes back
why are tv people dum?
They need to hire Felix Millan’s sharp-eyed son, Yaputin.
asvd
Fake.
Ok then.
Looks like it
This all sounds like a bunch of posturing. The White Sox “building around Peavy” is just a rather sad bluff.
Let’s check back on Wednesday.
Yeah, I wouldn’t count a trade out yet, but if the White Sox are really asking that much for Peavy, I hope the A’s decline.
Chris Sale says hi.
“Bullpen” mostly because Blevins is dining out of the Alpo bowl.
wilson
STOP!
Hahaha
Phish is playing down the street the next two nights.
Well played, sir.
Phish playing here on Tuesday and Wednesday nights is fantastic; it brings a ton of money into town on weeknights when we have the extra capacity to handle it.
That’s a really good attitude to have.
Wally Backman gonna Wally Backman.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/baseball/51s/las-vegas-51s-8-10-sacramento-river-cats-3-4
Didn’t Valdespin do the exact same thing in majors, leading the rest of the Mets to basically tell him they didn’t have his back?
I don’t recall.
Here’s more on what he did:
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/jordany-valdespin-wally-backman-ejected-in-triple-a-game/
Apparently Backman wasn’t happy with what Valdespin did, so at least there’s that.
Here. His own manager basically said he should get thrown at.
And some followup