The new generation of Cuban talent is about to hit the MLB. The easiest way to tell that it is indeed a generation of young players is the obvious omission of the previously cool Soviet Y in their names. One of the players about to sign is a 22-year old Aledmis Diaz Serrano, a shortstop on a Cuban national team and in Villa Clara of the Cuban Serie Nacional. There have actually been conflicting reports about his age and up to this point I believed he was actually a year younger than he obviously is. This is a strange case where being older actually benefits the player, as under the new CBA Cuban defectors who have played at least three seasons in Serie Nacional and are at least 23 years of age do not count against the international signing limit. Diaz played in Cuban league since the 2007 season, so he has that part fulfilled. And, his birthday is officially January 8th (missed a great birthday by just a day) 1990. So, he will wait for about a month more and sign only after January 8th next year, in order to get a bigger payday.
What kind of a player is he?
I actually didn’t go to Haarlem this year, where he played his last game for Cuba. Reports that I got from my teammates, based on a limited observation sample, are basically: good range, strong arm, average glove, good pitch recognition, some but not too much power, mainly to pull, high ball hitter. Don’t put too much stake into it though, it’s from the guys I regularly beat at fantasy.
Have a look for yourself, though. I have posted some clips in the comment section, as I can’t seem to embed it here.
How about his stats?
Here are his last three years in Serie Nacional:
These numbers looking FKing great for a shortstop, don’t they? But they are in Serie Nacional, so let’s try to put them into some context. First, let’s not get carried away with a .900 OPS. Lastyear there were four shortstops (in a 17-team Serie Nacional) who OPS-ed .870 or more.
Second, here is the comparison to what Cespedes did at the same age in Granma:
What we see is somewhat inferior hit tool, somewhat better eye and a huge gap in power. So, offensively Diaz seems to be inferior to where Cespedes was at the same age, which should not come as a surprise, because most Cuban players ever are. And he is a shortstop, so positional hitting requirements are lower.
However, we are talking about A’s shortstop in 2013, not 2017, so comparing Cespedes and Diaz at the same age is a little misleading. Let’s compare their last three seasons in Cuba before coming over to the USA:
So, that’s more than 200 points of OPS difference. If we would apply same league-related decline to Diaz as Cespedes experienced and simply decrease his expected OPS by the same percentage, we would come to something in the .630-.680 range, which is, sadly, still significantly better than what Penny did last year. Such projection is by no means scientific and probably rather inaccurate, as there are factors speaking both for him beating that line and performing poorer.
Speaking for him:
- Age related physical development. He is only 22 and just started to develop power, the weakest link of his game. Players tend to develop more power at that age, and seeing how his ISO went from .080 to .140 to .180 he is still developing. Not quite on regressed Brandon Moss level, but hey – not everybody can have .300 ISO in a down year…
- Easier transition to US with Cespedes already on the team. I think this aspect is often overlooked
Speaking against him:
- His age and his position. In last ten years only four shortstop rookies age 23 or younger gave their teams 550 plate appearances or more. Hanley and Tulo were a success (and a great one at that), Alcides Escobar was somewhere between league average and replacement level, while Rony Cedeño was below replacement level. Everyone but Hanley had a 30-50 games at MLB level a year before.
- Lack of experience. Cespedes was not only older, but had much, much more international experience, having played in numerous tournaments, including WBC, Baseball World Cup and University games.
So, if he were to hit somewhere in the .650 range, would he be of any value? That highly depends on his defensive contributions. And here we don’t know much at all. He made somewhere around a dozen errors a year (60-70 games) in Cuba and simply doubling that to 120-140 games shortstops play over here, would make him second most error prone shortstop in the MLB in 2012. Also telling is the fact that he didn’t play shortstop exclusively for Villa Clara, but appeared on 3B and DH as well. This can be at least partially explained with Eduardo Paret being on Villa Clara roster, and him being the shortstop legend on Cuban national team, though.
I would like the A’s to sign Diaz and to put him in Midland to start the year. In case he shows great progress, perhaps you can give him a call-up late in the year and hope he can take over by 2014 at earliest. But any Plan A built around him seems extremely risky to me, especially considering the fact that there will probably not be many Plans B available in mid-January.
Some fine looking fielding snippets from this year:
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NICE B!!!!! I was just gonna look this kid up based on the emergent scuttlebutt in the Grill thread and here you are with the one-stop info shopping I need!!! Thanks for this, very informative.
Welcome!
And some hitting
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If you assume he’ll never develop Cespedes’ power level (good assumption) then his numbers aren’t terribly far off. Even with Russell in the minors, it would still make sense to pursue him with a stopgap minded plan A (preferably someone not already in our system) for this year.
Hit tool is inferior, too, but I agree he would be a good guy to go after. As for stopgap, that’s where Escobar’s contract with two option years would have come in handy.
I like learning.
Nicely done.
Thanks
Amazing that you are able to provide a scouting report that is only second hand. And of all the FKers, you might live the furthest away from Cuba…
Yes, but in terms of childhood government system, I’m the closest
You do know that most of us have been living under shariah socialism for the last four years, right?
I read that as “I’m in the closet.”
Dude it’s OK. You can come out.
Thanks, and go As.
elcroata: Closet Titoist
It all depends on the price and the years. Obviously, if he’s looking for Cespedes deal of 4/36, it probably does not make sense. But 6/36, plus a couple of team options? I’d do it. I’d also go after Nakajima (I wanted him last year!), but again it’s all in the price.
As an aside, how much did Cespedes play against Diaz? Will he be able to give the A’s some extra information?
The latter contract would tie him for the second most valuable contract given to a Cuban. You think he’s as good as Yasel Puig? I have a hard time seeing that. Of course, information on Diaz is vague at best, but he seems to be more comparable to Alexei Ramirez, who signed for 4 years 5 million and did not need minor league time, rather than the upper tier of Cuban talents like Cespedes and Puig.
Might be less about pure value and more about current market value.
Fair enough. I’m basing my estimates on the scouting reports I’ve seen: that he has speed and power that he’s a SS who might stick at his position.
I do think the Cuban market is only going up. Puig, Soler, Chapman, the Royals guy, and Cespedes have gotten multi-millions. Add in the new salary cap for Latin America and it only gets worse. Finally, that Diaz is a 23 yo SS and even though he’s not an elite talent, he’s in a prime position to get paid.
On the flip side, the posting fee for Nakajima last year was only like 2.5 million. I would have thought that would have been higher too.
So let’s say he signs for 6 years and 1 club option, what’s the money look like?
Nakajima’s miniscule posting fee is a pretty big warning flag to me as to how he’s regarded by teams.
Alexei Ramirez didn’t need any minors time, but he was also 27 when he signed and came of a season in Serie Nacional where he hit over .330 with 20 HRs.
One small correction, Ramirez was actually 26 when he played his first season in the big leagues. But in any case, I regard Ramirez at the time of his defection better than Diaz now.
Your feeling would be in the $3-5M/yr range?
As vignette said, the market is a lot more inflated now than it was back when the White Sox first signed Ramirez. So I expect him to get more than Ramirez did in 08, but not as much as Cespedes and Puig because he’s simply not at that level. I’m guessing total contract value would be around 12-13 million.
Very informative. Do you have any sense of the potential contract it will take to get him?
Thanks. I think it has to be at least 5 years, because teams will count on 1-2 years in minors. Perhaps something like 5yr/$15MM or 6yr/$18MM, but all depends how he performs in Mexico.
Interesting stuff – thanks for posting it!
Welcome
Great post! Have there been any rumblings of interest in Diaz or is it just being generated on FK?
Thanks. No specifics connecting the A’s and Diaz, but one is offering the services that the other is seeking…
I don’t know if there’s been any specifics connecting him with any team. He’s not technically a free agent yet.
Thanks, was just trying to gauge my nascent yearning for more caribbean players in white cleats.
TAGLINE!
Since his first name is an anagram for Misled A, I assume he’s actually 57 years old and can’t hit a curve ball.
excellent
But his last name is an anagram for Near SRO, so I can’t help but assume that signing him would lead to a huge spike in attendance.
or tenderloin style apartments popping up around hegenberger
Coliseum City, baby!
Olmed Saenz disarrai
winner