The #Reds decided a month ago that they will shop Brandon Phillips this winter w all intents to trade him
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 18, 2013
And then you have this
The #Reds intent to trade Brandon Phillips, by the way, has nothing to do w money. They will only trade if get fair value.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 18, 2013
So what is value?
According to Cotts the contract breakdown is
14:$11M, 15:$12M, 16:$13M, 17:$14M
The problem is that the A’s revenue is unlikely to rise with inflation that the game will rise at, so it would seem that the A’s biggest problem would be that the end of the contract is likely to take more resources as a proportion of the payroll than it is acceptable for the team to absorb, even if other teams were able too. Steamer projects Phillips as a 3 win player next year. I think there is upside on that bet. If you reduce that to 2.5 WAR in 2015, 2 WAR in 2016 and then 1.5 WAR in 2016 you are looking at trading 9 WAR for 50m or a little more than $5m per WAR.
Matt Klaassen agrees with the break down
The question is how much value a three-win player has given the four years and $50 million remaining on his contract. That all depends on what you make of the market for wins. If you believe that the recent infusion of cash from television contracts into the sport is going to drive even further inflation this winter, then former estimates of $5 million per win may be in fact too low, and Phillips deal could actually prove to be a bit of a bargain. However, given that Phillips’ value is heavily tied to his defensive value as he ages, and that teams have historically paid more for offense than defense, and it’s probably safer to say that this is something close to a fair contract, not that far from what guys like Shane Victorino or Angel Pagan signed as free agents last winter.
Essentially you are trading for a fairly priced market asset. Normally this isn’t a particularly good idea, because you are giving up something in trade for an asset that is unlikely to produce surplus value. I would suggest that that might not be the case here. The number of available 2b or SS that are going to be of quality that the A’s could sign to a mid range deal this year, while they are in contention is low. I would certainly prefer giving Phillips the money that he is owed over Kendrick getting 19m over two years. If we could get the Cuban Guerro for $30m I would go for that because A) I love Cubans and B) He would be in his prime.
Therefore, I propose trading Tommy Milone and Stephen Vogt for Brandon Phillips. The Reds need a catcher to platoon with Mesoraco since Hannigan. Steamer projects Vogt at .8 WAR in 47 games bump the playing time to 90 games you have a nice tidy 1.6 WAR platoon partner for Mesaraco who is just hitting the prime of his career. Tommy Milone would replace Arroyo who wants a three year deal, which considering his replacement level of performance, shouldn’t get one. Based on 20 Starts and 115 innings Steamer projects him for 1.5 WAR. If We give him 28 Starts and 161 IP, he would be a 2.1 WAR controllable player.
Lets say that neither player is worth going to arbitration for and Vogt is worth 3 WAR at league minimum and Milone is worth 2. Thats 5 WAR you are giving up for the right to pay Brandon Phillips to come to Oakland and take 50 million greenbacks. I say do it.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
I don’t particularly think it’s a good idea.
I don’t trust Phillips’ deteriorating skill set. He’s seen a decrease in ISO every single season since 2007, except one year when it basically remained stagnant. He also appears to have lost some value in terms of speed, which could be the cause behind his sagging BABIP.
If middle infield is the main upgrade the A’s are targeting, why not go after someone like Stephen Drew. He’ll likely see fewer years, less money, cost less in terms of controllable talent, and he’s two years younger. He’d also push Lowrie to 2B, where he’d be less of a defensive liability.
Drew will probably want three years and 30M, which isn’t that much of a difference especially when you consider:
Drew’s projected by Steamer to be worse next year. 2.4, 1.9, and 1.4 over three years is 5.7 WAR. At 30M you are looking at just more than $5 million for Drew.
Drew’s value is just as tied to his defense since his bat is projected to be negatie next year.
Drew’s bounce back season last year was fueled by a BABIP that was .015 pts higher than his career average and his second hightest ISO of his career, something that could very well be a Fenway affect.
Drew is constantly injured.
Drew does have a horrid injury history.
However, the value in terms of projected WAR/salary for each player is essentially the same. So with no real cost benefit the WAR lost in making a trade for Phillips pushes the advantage towards signing Drew.
This is true. That being said the window is next year before Russell is ready. Coco and Lowrie are free agents after that , it is unlikely the Colon will be any good and a bunch of players will hit arbitration so I want the guy that will help next year. Phillips is more likely to do that. Plus when Russell comes up he can play his natural position where as Drew doesn’t let you do that.
I get the Last Hurrah scenario… I’m just not sure adding Phillips and subtracting Milone, Voght, plus benching Sogard (1.3 WAR Steamer projection in 89 games) and Callaspo (1.1 WAR Steamer projection in 89 games) is the right play. I feel like dealing for Phillips is a push at best for 2014.
I’m desperately trying to convince myself that Beltran is a bad idea… but 2.5 WAR projection replacing Smith at .8 WAR is a clear advantage to the A’s… and that’s with Beltran featuring defense so bad a full time gig at DH would actually help his projected WAR. Dealing Smith would bring back a bullpen arm or a C+ prospect but the big help would be the salary offset for bring in Beltran. Hell, dealing Smith and Anderson (assuming Slusser’s pick-up-option-and-trade scenario plays out) would almost pay for Beltran at $13 million AAV.
So to sum up: Beltran spends most of his time at DH but can give the occassional day off to Crisp/Cespedes/Reddick. Jaso/Norris at C. Sogard/Callaspo at 2B. Moss at 1B but he’s the primary COF back-up if someone gets hurt for an extended period. The rotation is Colon/Parker/Gray/Griffin/Straily with Chavez available as a long man/spot starter and/or Milone doing the same or on standby in AAA.
I am down with Beltran for sure. The Yankees want him so I am assuming his price will go really high something like 2 24
He signed with St. Louis for 2/26. I don’t see him taking a paycut, especially after all the “clutch” postseason chatter.
Beltran scares the absolute hell out of me. His ISO, BB%, and K% all took pretty significant dips this year, and while cutting strikeouts is usually a good thing, I’m worried that his age is catching up to his hitting skills. He was able to make it work this year, but I think age 37 is too old to expect him to keep it up.
Beltran is certainly old enough that he could fall off the cliff at any time… there was also a noticeable difference in his 1st and 2nd half power numbers…
Was he healthy during the 2nd half? His BB% ticked up while his ISO dipped, at least suggesting that he wasn’t getting blown away as pitchers adjusted.
I want the A’s to add a good hitter, and I think for the money Beltran rates as a better hitter than Napoli. I’d prefer Victor Martinez but he’s under contract for another year…
Not sure if I like the idea of either one, but I do wonder how hard it would be to convince Detroit to clear the DH spot for Cabrera/Fielder. Their defense certainly didn’t help them at all in the playoffs.
Clearing 3B could allow them to maximize Nick Castellanos’ value as well. Scouting reports are vaguely pessimistic about his ability to handle 3B at this point, but he’s certainly be an upgrade to Cabrera on a GB%-heavy pitching staff.
Castellanos is going to play LF for them no? I mean its their biggest weakness and they just traded Avsil Garcia for Inglesias, so they really don’t have anything else in the pipeline.
As far as I know, Castellanos was moved to LF because Cabrera insisted on moving to 3B so they could sign Fielder.
If Martinez was traded, per grover’s idea, it would free up the DH spot for Cabrera and Fielder to share along with 1B duties. Castellanos could presumably move back to 3B. Dirks is passable in LF.
I’d imagine Detroit is less than eager to take that bat out of the lineup though. They lived with godawful defense all year long, and I doubt that attitude changes even though it hurt them several times in the playoffs.
Castellanos isn’t a complete butcher out there and would help add some offensive juice to a position that has been bereft for a while
I have no interest at Drew at 3/36 or even 4/48 while losing our draft pick.
Fenway’s relatively neutral to LH hitters, so I’m not sure it’s the sole reason for Drew’s offensive performance last year. He also improved as the year progressed, which is something we saw from him in Oakland last year. It’s possible that he was still feeling some residual effects from the injury and/or the time missed because of it.
IMO, Drew has quite a bit more upside than 5.7 WAR over the next three years, and 3/$30MM is about what I’d expect to pay. I also consider “constantly injured” a stretch. As far as I can find, he’s had two stints on the disabled list aside from the broken ankle.
Constantly injured might be a strech, but if you google Stephen Drew Disabled List you get 900k results.
He hasn’t played more than 124 games in the last three years and is on the wrong side of 30.
Two of those years were lost to the same injury, so it’s not like he’s been plagued by a ton of nagging injuries. Even acknowledging the fact that he’ll be 31 by opening day, he’s still two years younger than Phillips.
Its more that he got hurt this year too.
As long as it wasn’t related to his ankle injury (it wasn’t), I’m not ready to slap the injury-prone label on him.
I think Phillips is making way too much money relative to what he’s done the last couple years, but it’s not my money.
Milone and Vogt? Very hard to see other GMs perceiving that a good value. Throw in Reddick and a bunch of Wolffish’s cash and get me an OF/1B who can rake. Of the holes we should fill, middle IF just ain’t that high on my list.
Really? I’m not crazy about dfa’s trade proposal, but I totally agree with him that middle infield is the position of greatest need.
The middle IF is fine, Lowrie is good and Sogard is ok enough. Pitching (especially) and DH/someone who can hit are much bigger needs. I would do this trade though, but I think no way the Reds would.
I disagre with the assesment of the infield. I would be unsurprised if Sogard regresses and Lowrie has never before not been hurt. What happens if Lowrie gets hurt? are you ok with Callaspo and Sogard as your INF as you try for your third AL West Title?
Well, they’re in trouble in a lot of places in case someone gets injured. I don’t see Sogard doing much worse, probably his BA will maybe be a bit lower, but not very much because he doesn’t strike out. They should get someone not horrible to backup SS, but as far as obtaining good starting players, SP is a much bigger priority and can be done by getting free agents instead of trading from an already very thin system.
If you resign Colon and pick up Anderson’s option, you have 7 starters. Depth wise thats fine. I would like to see a BOR upgrade too but I think you can do that on a reasonable 1 year FA. Haren or Josh Johnson would be my prefered choices right now with no research.
Seven starters, but one of them finished the season with a bum elbow, one with a bum shoulder, one is 40 years old, one had a 6.04 ERA in 44.2 innings, and one is Tom Milone.
It doesn’t inspire much confidence in me at the moment.
So I am not concerned with parker of griffen.
Colon Collapse is terrifying
Anderson is unlikely to be healthy but is also unlikely to produce a 6.04 ERA when he is.
Milone is Milone.
I would also not be surprised if Gray is great and Strailey makes a big step forward.
Anderson needs to be traded while people still think he’s good.
Thanks, and go As.
So like two years ago?
WE COULD HAVE HAD WIL MYERS. AAARRRRRRGGHHHH
Thanks, and go As.
you and me both bro
For dome reason the mobile fk isn’t letting me reply to the first comment as it doesn’t show me the avatar. (Chrome on Android).
@FSU that’s the main problem is that Phillips is an overvalued asset and what I am proposing trading are under valued ones. Politically it might not be a possible trade. I don’t want to give more.
I think this is right (BP is overvalued and a fantasy-stud, our guys are neither). The real question I think we should start with is whether we have overvalued guys. Reddick? Yo? Pitchers? If so, where would they slot and what could we expect back.
Yoenis has some trade rumors swirling including to the Rockies for Rutelage plus
Him hitting there would be absolutely unfair. How much plus?
Thats the article that I refer to
If it’s a real SP type, I’m probably ok with that.
Trading Cespedes now is selling low. I don’t think 2012 Cespedes is that much less likely than 2013, and they don’t really have anyone to replace him. Very unlikely Choice is good as a full time player next year.
To be honest Im not really that excited about Rutelage.
Not super young. Not super good. And there isn’t anything that would be particularly enticing in the high minors.
Trading Cespedes would be counter to a Last Hurrah plan, and I’ve got no idea why the Rockies beat reporter thinks Rutledge is a prime trade chip.
Im fine trading Cespedes for someone good, but Im not unless I got something of value, of which Rutelage is definitely not.
I’m fine with trading anyone if it makes the A’s better.
I agree
Hug it out?
I’m not big on Rutledge either, but Dahl, Butler, Herrera, and Anderson could all be of interest to Oakland.
Dahl missed all year and is too far away.
Anderson sounds like the exact thing that we have way to many of Back of the Rotation starters.
Butler and Herrera are far away no?
Herrera is definitely pretty far away, but you could make the argument that he represents a ceiling higher than any A’s prospect not named Russell. Ditto for Dahl.
Butler had a 27-inning trial in Double-A, and with some refinement could get into the majors next season.
I should have clarified that I’m not really a huge fan of Cespedes. I hate his swing-extremely-hard-at-everything approach and I don’t think it’s going to get better. If the A’s can get a couple significant prospects, clear $21MM over the next two years, and use it to sign somebody like Drew, Granderson, Beltran, Napoli, etc., then I’m probably for it.
I doubt it will happen.
Cespedes is still projected to be a 3 WAR player, so he would have surplus value.
Herrera is also going to be Rule 5 Eligible which means that hes going to only have three years to stick in the majors, which isn’t great.
Hes fine as a prospect, I just don’t see the need to gut contetion for him. I think if we are trading Cespedes, we can do better.
The prize would be Butler methinks.
Youre still looking at a B/B+ spec that won’t help you next year and a bunch of meh for a key part of your contending team
Like I said, I’m not a huge fan of Cespedes. I don’t really care if the return is or isn’t MLB-ready because I think his production is immediately replaceable.
Let’s say Beane did seek a trade of some sorts. Last year Cespedes and Young produced 2.8 fWAR over the course of 949 plate appearances. Next year, they’d cost the A’s $21.5MM. I believe Smith and Choice could reproduce that production at something short of 1/3 of the cost. The other $15MM goes towards Drew and Johnson (may not get them all the way there, but it should get them close). With the new improvements to the farm system, they can afford to part with the relatively decent prospect required to acquire a bullpen arm like Parnell or Henderson.
In the end, the A’s manage to upgrade the farm system with some high-upside talent, plug a high-upside arm into the rotation, upgrade the middle infield significantly, and reinforce the bullpen. All this will cost the the A’s something like $5-10MM in additional payroll?
The only way Smith+Choice achieve 2.8 fWAR is if Choice puts up 2+ fWAR as a rookie.
DFA’s point is that Cespedes is still projected to have upside: 3.2 fWAR per Steamer. And at $10.5 million that’s surplus value for Oakland. Chris Young might come back but it won’t be due to the A’s picking up his $11 million option.
So your $21.5 million number doesn’t really come in play.
What I think does need to be factored is the PR hit that would come from trading an affordable and fairly popular player from a roster that is currently expected to compete for its 3rd consecutive AL West crown.
Fact is, the A’s could decline Anderson’s option (or opt it and trade him) and use the savings to go after (I’m assuming you’re referring to) Josh Johnson or my preference Dan Haren and NOT have to move Cespedes for salary relief.
Ah, yeah that $21.5MM doesn’t make sense. I was try it to convey that those two roster spots could be taken over by Smith and Choice without much, if any, downgrade.
If you have 950 PA to divvy up equally between Smith and Choice, I don’t think it’s a stretch to find 2.8 WAR.
Smith has averaged 1.2 WAR in 470 PA over the last four years, so the A’s would basically need Choice to be a slightly below average hitter with good COF defense over the course of 480 PA. That’s 2013 Andy Dirks (.256/.323/.363 with 9 HR in 484 PA).
I sure hope he’s capable of being Andy Dirks anyway.
I get that Cespedes has upside. I just don’t have confidence in him reaching that upside. I think if the right offer came along, the farm system improvements plus the leeway to aggressively pursue positional upgrades would far outweigh any PR hit.
You don’t have confidence that Cespedes will improve; I think we’ve seen the best Smith is going to produce. I can’t tell you how Steamer comes up with its projections but its bumping Smith’s PAs to 500+ and cutting his production by a third. Even if the projection is wrong and Smith maintains his 4-year average of 1.2 fWAR that leaves more than half of the runs needed to break even on the shoulders of a rookie who’ll be swinging from the wrong side of the platoon.
I’d rather Choice play full time in AAA than be a platoon bat in Oakland (he probably feels differently) but there’s nothing stopping him from taking that job with Cespedes still on the roster. In fact, if Choice is the 4th OFer he’d be available to still some at bats away from Reddick or Crisp when facing LH pitching. He could also DH. And if he can play good COF defense (and maybe passable CF defense) than he’d work in an outfield rotation better than Smith currently does.
I think Renck is talking out of his ass. Rutledge is NOT a significant trade chip. Butler is shiny but everyone else Colorado has is too far away.
I’m greedy. The A’s finished 9 wins short this year. I want those 9 wins.
But I agree with the “right offer” principle.
This this this.
Why are we relegating Choice to platoon hitter at best? He has an .861 OPS against LHP and an .843 OPS against RHP over the last three years. If there are 950 vacant plate appearances, I’d be totally fine with splitting them up between the two of them equally.
Give Choice all 950!
Thanks, and go As.
Why do you think Smith will improve?
Does he need to improve to provide 1.2 WAR over 470 PA, like he’s done for the past four years? The guy has a 120 wRC+ against RHP for his career. He’s still a pretty useful player.
I’m pulling this out of my ass, but if he & Cespedes combine for 4.2 WAR, then him replacing Cespedes (with the inclusion of someone else) need to at least match that 4.2 WAR. So either he needs to improve or someone else picks up that difference, no?
In this trade scenario, the A’s aren’t replacing Cespedes and Smith. They’re replacing Cespedes and Young, who combined for 2.8 WAR last year.
My argument is only that if two roster spots combining for 2.8 WAR was an integral part of a first place team, then reproducing that with Smith and Choice is far from impossible.
If it allows the A’s to do all the other things I mentioned (upgrade the farm system, upgrade the bullpen, sign Johnson or Haren or Hudson, and upgrade the middle infield), then IMO it’s absolutely worth the risk.
But you’re suggesting that the A’s wouldn’t be able to make the major league upgrades without first trading Cespedes, which isn’t so. MLBTR hasn’t covered the A’s off-season yet so I’m guessing at the arby numbers; but factoring buy-outs for Anderson, Young and Zooks plus a $5.5 million base salary for resigning Colon and the A’s will have a full roster (including Cespedes AND Smith) costing ~ $56 million. Room enough to splurge on a FA bullpen arm and/or MI upgrades.
Admittedly the A’s couldn’t re-sign Colon and sign one of Johnson/Haren/Hudson but with the rest of the rotation I don’t feel like adding 2 FA SP would be a wise use of resources anyways.
That’s a good point. Are you expecting the A’s to increase payroll next year? That’s only about a $5MM difference from 2013, which isn’t as much wiggle room to splurge as I’d like.
I suppose in this case I’m valuing the addition of a top prospect (or two) to the farm system more than you or DFA.
I always figure a hard cap of $65 million when it comes to payroll. But I’m very much pushing the Smith-to-elsewhere agenda, freeing up another $4 million to spend on upgrades.
I get the top prospect angle… just haven’t heard anything that makes me willing to risk a step back.
I am perusing Colorado’s system though, to see if I can find such a proposal.
@grover You think they will take the buyout on Anderson? I think he is still worth taking a shot on at $8M (especially since the buyout would cost $1.5M). If the A’s need to reduce payroll, I suspect that they could find a team willing to take on his full salary and still provide something not totally worthless in return.
I agree with colin wrt Andersons extension
Reports have been that they’re all but certain to pick it up. With rumors that they’d do that and trade him.
I think the A’s pick up Anderson’s option and (probably) try to deal him since the rumor mill suggests a market.
My goal on the previous post was to show how the A’s could have sufficient payroll flexibility using a simplified Anderson-gone scenario.
Because at 4 AM a discussion about the aggregate production of Smith and Choice the term “platoon” made sense. What I meant to say was in a line-up featuring either Smith OR Choice the LH bat would likely get more PA’s.
However, there’s no reason to assume that both players couldn’t be in the line-up at the same time. Semantically, I wouldn’t consider Choice a “full time” starter if he only got 475 PA but attaining that level would certainly raise his status above that of a traditional RH platoon bat.
Some of those names could be of interest, but then I wouldn’t be able to mock a paid writer’s sense of fair trade value.
Biggest issue with the names you mentioned… only Butler played above High-A ball last year. Although I’m looking to see if I can find a scouting report on Winkler.
Yeah I don’t see CO being a match for Cespedes
Reds, Yankees, Rays come to mind as more appropriate suitors for him, but I’ve only seen Cespedes linked with Colorado, which makes me question the validity of Olney’s statements. I wonder if he wasn’t just spitballing.
I mean thats always a possibility. It would be interesting to see a Friedman Beane deal, but I think its too much risk for Tampa at his salary.
How’s this for spitballing…
Cespedes to Colorado.
David Price to Oakland.
Prospects + Oakland SP (TBD) to Tampa.
I think that they could get someone more impactful for Price. The might do it for Norris instead of SPTBD.
I would be over the moon for that deal.
Texas could pull off a better deal. The Cubs could, but why now? The Twins are the same way. Boston would kick the tires but if they don’t include Bogaerts I think the A’s could compete with their offer. St. Louis would have to include Taveras.
Who do you think could offer a “more impactful” package?
Profar + is better
Arizona would be able to do better with Bradley
Baltimore would be able to put Bundy in a deal
ATL with Bentacourt plus a starter
Nationals could put Rendon on the table and include arms like Cole Solis or Purke
AKA a lot of folks.
Can we give them Anderson for Rendon please.
Thanks.
Thanks, and go As.
I wouldn’t if I was Rizzo.
I know, that was wishful thinking. It’s too bad Anderson couldn’t have gotten healthy and thrown a few good starts to “prove” it before the season was over.
God I’m so fucking tired of that guy.
Thanks, and go As.
We’d be playing in the ALCS if he had.
Would we? We won Straily’s start
I was thinking maybe in terms of him coming in relief of the game that Straily started that we LOST.
Would you rather have a good Anderson start that game than Straily? I’d think a good Anderson doesn’t give up the runs Straily did and goes deeper into the game.
I conceded Texas at the start. Bundy is coming off TJ and Baltimore’s system is thin behind him. The Nationals could make a move, good call. I could beat Atlanta’s Bethancourt offer. Arizona would have to include Bradley but (gut feeling) I don’t see them moving him; besides, they’re looking for offense.
Bundy even coming of the TJ is elite. The could go with Gaussman if they want to avoid the risk.
I would take Jose Peraza Bethancourt and Wood over pretty much any package the A’s would be willing to make or what the A’s could get from CO for Cespedes.
Bundy and whom? Gaussman and whom? Baltimore isn’t going to want to part with both.
Tampa isn’t going to be interested in your Atlanta offer unless they’re conceding a play-off run in 2014. Which I don’t think they’ll do.
Schoop and Kline or Eduardo Rodriguez
Love me some Schoop.
We are signing Price to a huge extension in this scenario?
Thanks, and go As.
Not sure. Why?
Sexy Pants and Price both have 2 years remaining before FA so its a push.
I misread Cots contracts, I thought we were dealing 2 years of Yo + something else for Price’s contract year.
Thanks, and go As.
Actually Price is more likely to be worth the 14m qualifying offer so FA would be in Price’s favor
I’m confused.
Why are we worrying about qualifying offers two seasons away?
Mike… any signing Price long term can be discussed later. Pinky swear.
I know that. Like I said, I misread the Cot’s page. I would be somewhat hesitant to deal two years of Yo plus prospects or a SP or whatever else we’d have to deal.
Cause if I’m reading right, we’re essentially dealing Yo to Colorado for prospects, then a SP and prospect to Tampa for Price?
Thanks, and go As.
Not quite.
Part of the Colorado return would stay in Oakland. The rest + not Russell or Choice would go to Tampa for Price.
I guess it would depend on what the specifics came down to, then. The trade itself probably works out fine, but there’s the matter of fielding an offense still.
Thanks, and go As.
What if we were to ask Smith to change his name to Cespedes and pull a bait & switch as part of this deal?
SOLD.
Thanks, and go As.
and we have a winner
Its a part of the value that you trade for. Price is going to get you a pick
Not necessarily. You don’t know what’s going to happen in 2 years. And does Cespedes’ contract include a No-Qualifying Offer clause?
I thought that his final years of team control were forfeited after his 4th year as part of his deal so he could go after a FA megadeal
Thanks, and go As.
He gets to be a FA after 4 years. I’m not sure if his contract forbids the A’s from making him a Qualifying Offer.
I dunno, but didn’t he sign his contract before all that qualifying offer nonsense started?
I mean, just thinking through it, I don’t see why they couldn’t. A QA is basically a 1 year FA deal, which he’d then be free to turn down to look for a 10/200 contract from the Dodgers or whatever.
Thanks, and go As.
Before Qualifying Offers teams could still offer their pending FAs arbitration. That’s how they got draft picks for departing players.
Remember Type A/Type B free agents?
my original statement
My original statement:
I don’t but it isn’t responsible to not include the probability of action.
Two years away… it’s like getting a bill for $7.95 and rounding up to $8. It’s inconsequential at best… a lousy tip at worst.
Its value is a million bucks, but sure, ignore it.
That is less than they paid Chris Resop.
Thanks, and go As.
i read the chart wrong picks 16 – 31 average 7.4m in value
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks
I’ll take that lousy tip, kthxbye!
DFA
You don’t know if Price will get a qualifying offer in 2 years. Nor do you know if Cespedes won’t get a qualifying offer in 2 years.
Plus, if a team with a protected 1st round pick signs a Qualified FA they only surrender a 2nd round pick. Or a 3rd rounder if they sign 2 Qualified FAs.
With so many unknowns, worry about it later. Focus on getting the best talent available today and let 2 years take care of itself in 12-18 months.
Then why would you ever trade for a prospect that is more than 12 to 18 months away?
Cespedes is not currently playing at a 3 WAR or greater level which is basically where you would want to have your player when you make a qualifying offer.
Price has a been one of the most dominant pitchers in the last 5 years. Im fine with the idea that Ill give him a qualifying offer.
Diversification.
When the A’s traded Bailey and Sweeney to Boston they got Reddick, whom they expected to contribute immediately, and two younger players they considered to have more upside than any of the other available Boston prospects who could have been expected to be big league ready within 12 months. They had to expect Head would need a minimum of 12-18 months of development and Alcantara was going to take even longer.
Are you saying you wouldn’t expect Cespedes’ numbers to improve if he went from Oakland to Colorado? I think there’d be a very good chance of that happening and it would earn him a Qualifying Offer when he hit FA.
And while I agree Price should earn a QO as well, if he gets hurt that might not happen.
Point being, the potential is there with both players to make the call whether or not to offer a QO after 2015 more than a little premature.
Josh Johnson has been less durable for his entire career than Price has, and he is still likely to get a QO even with his disaster of a season.
Sure. Toronto is going to make a decision on whether or not to make a QO on Johnson and they’re going to base that decision in large part on his performance this last season, the market and their expectations of his health and performance next season. That’s the right way to make this decision.
And that is a lot of information that doesn’t currently exist for determining if Price is going to get a QO after the 2015 season. You’re guessing.
The proper way of ascribing this is taking the probability that Price gets a QO and multiplying it by the expected value of a qualifying offer. You can also discount the production value because it is future years by the inflation rate plus a real interest rate.
The probability of Price getting a QO in 2 years is going to be a made up number that would most likely be rendered moot if he blows out his shoulder in September, 2015.
Whats the probability that Price blows out his shoulder or needs TJS g? 25%?
You should still multiply 7 million of value by 75% discount it by 10% and add that to the price of Price.
Except there’s also a 35% baseline chance that a QO’d Price gets signed by a team with a protected 1st round pick, knocking $7 million to $3 million.
Are you going to tax Price’s new team for the possibility they might trade him in July, 2015; thus voiding all chance of a QO?
No because you would only trade him in July of 15 if you were getting a better deal than the QO pick.
So shouldn’t Tampa also factor a possible trade in 2015 when they’re asking for prospects in return?
You want to find a price tag that includes a QO probability, it would be irresponsible to not factor in a 2nd trade. Or a possible extension! Even if Price’s new team isn’t asking for a window to sign the star SP to an extension prior to the deal, might as well factor in the chance that his new team gets him for 6 years and not just 2.
Your plan goes absurd real quick. The deciding factor will ultimately come down to Tampa’s trading partner deciding that Price’s performance will be worth 8 WAR or 9 WAR over the next two seasons and whether or not Tampa finds a trade package they like.
You don’t think that teams factor in a higher likelihood of an extension into the price/demand for a trade?
The idea that Price is likely to be able to be traded after 2014 definitely improves his marketablility.
I think at $5 million a Win Tampa wants to market Price as a 9 Win SP over the next two seasons.
Steamer predicts him to be a 4 Win player next year. Using the standard depreciation of .5 Wins Tampa’s trading partner could argue they’re trying to acquire a projected 7.5 Win player and will deal accordingly.
The difference in surplus values between those two figures is the key point in a trade scenario. How many teams are actually going to pursue Price at the 9 Win value? Competition between those teams will be what benefits Tampa… not them trying to jack up the price to making Price the equivlant of a 10 Win player.
Now if Tampa can get a couple teams to bid as if Price is worth 10 Wins…
You don’t think hey you can Cliff Lee it if you shit the bed or he won’t sign long term with you helps them get teams to bid at the 10 WAR level?
No.
Over the past 3 years Price has averaged 4.5 fWAR and 4.2 bWAR. He’s never had 2 seasons by either measure that have combined to equal 10 WAR in value.
I think two teams getting into a bidding war over Price is what would drive the level to a 10 WAR equivlant. I think Tampa screws itself if they try to sell Price as a 10 WAR player.
Put it another way… if you’re Oakland’s GM bidding on Price, do you walk away if Tampa asks for more than 9 fWAR equivlant value? Wouldn’t you try to buy at something closer to the 7.5 fWAR value? You figure you haven’t got a prayer of keeping him if he pitches vintage Price… is the promise of a draft pick 3 Junes from now going to be salve enough for paying a 10 fWAR price tag in prospects today?
If Im Oakland Im far more willing to get involved in the bidding at 9 WAR if I know that if my team shits the bed next year I can trade Price and recoup significant parts of my investment. The draft pick is a part of that hedge. Look if you don’t make the playoffs and you cant sign him to a extension, you get a draft pick so you didn’t piss away all of your allowance. Its important ot get risk adverse teams involved
So you’d buy at 10 Wins and hope to get lucky? I don’t understand how you can trust the Steamer projection to be for a Phillips trade but you’ll reject the same projection system to justify over-bidding on Price.
How close do the A’s have to be to 1st place at the end of July (during either season) to avoid you pulling the eject lever? What if they DON’T shit the bed and still miss the playoffs?
If you trade for a 10 Win player and ride him to 8 Wins and a draft pick it won’t be long before that strategy ruins your franchise. You’re creating a situation where the only two ways you can come out ahead when trading for Price are if he either improves on his established performance level OR your team plays so poorly you trade him away.
That’s not a strategy for winning; it’s asking to fail.
Then you gon fucked up.
I would’nt hope to get lucky I would buy knowing that my team projects this year to be about a 90 Win Team and that there is weakness in the division right now. I would buy knowing that it would help me backfill some of my talent loss with a pick or a trade if things don’t go as planned.
Also if I trade for a 10 win player and get 8 Wins and a draft pick valued at 2.4 WAR on average, then in fact I have done quite well for myself and profited .4 WAR out of the gambit.
PS Im glad you are around more these days as I do so enjoy these debates.
Where are you getting a 2.4 WAR average draft pick? Earlier you said the 1st round pick was potentially worth $7.4 million… now it’s $12 million?
You’re going to have to explain the math on this one; I’m not following.
sorry its 2.7 WAR from the chart above. When you take into acount the signing bonus and the marginal costs it comes out to 7.4m
DFA
Maybe I’m completely reading the chart wrong but… isn’t that supposed to be 2.7 WAR over 6 years combined? Because if that’s supposed to be 2.7 WAR yearly than the #1 overall pick would be worth (on average) 11.83 WAR yearly.
So figuring a 2.5-3 year development period for the draftee to pan out you’d consider it a win to be up .4 WAR… 11 years after you made the initial trade.
You’re also continuing to assume you’d actually get a 1st round pick and that Price wouldn’t sign with a team that happened to own a Top 10 pick.
You profit at the buy-in, not at the sale.
You’re forgetting something…
Link
You need to be using the Tier 6 numbers.
Ok we both screwed up here.
1 You are right, I was using the old pick 15 to 31 formula I should have been using pick 31 to 40
2 You are wrong that if a team that has a protectd pick signs him then you don’t get a compensatory pick in the same place. You get the pick regardless of who signs him
Sounds right.
Damned change in the CBA…
Fuck that. I want Stanton.
Thanks, and go As.
He can’t play 3B…
he hits the ball like he’s mad at it.
Thanks, and go As.
Which I much prefer to Balfour’s approach of throwing the ball like he’s mad at it.
For Gray Russell and Choice?
Sure! (You do mean the color Gray, Kurt Russell, and Pro-Choice, right?)
No. I want a Fuckin A deal, and frankly there should be absolutely no way Sonny Gray is traded.
Gray and Russell should probably be the only two untouchable players in the system, though.
Yes, I know it would take one/both plus more to get Stanton.
Thanks, and go As.
You can have two of three: Cheap, Available, and Good
No.
Thanks, and go As.
Or you can get lucky and sign Francisco Liriano
People could probably say the same thing about Colon.
Thanks, and go As.
Or you can get lucky and sign Bartolo Colon
Indeed!
Thanks, and go As.
I want him too, but in this world I’d content myself with someone like Encarnacion/Cuddyer/Napoli
E5 is signed through 2015 with a club option for 2016. Napoli is going to want a payday but probably similar in AAV to what I’m thinking Beltran asks for. Cuddyer has 1/10.5 left on his deal with Colorado.
Right. E5 should be acquirable since I don’t see TOR standing pat with all their huge contracts. Cuddyer seems like solid trade bait, but I’m less clued in on NL team strategies.
I generally think we’re more likely to get impact players via trade than FA, but maybe that’s less true now.
There’s a rumor they’d trade Jose Reyes…
E5 would fit in budget, but 30+ HR guys who walked more than they struck out are going to cost a ton in trade.
I honestly have no idea. He’s not young, expensive, and a long-term problem if a team is going to rebuild.
Early word is Toronto plans on contending in 2014, not tearing down. The Reyes rumor is based on the fact that he’s about to get really, really expensive.
Then you’re right that he’s off the table.
This whole discussion just makes me sad, on account of how there are basically no available good middle infielders. I vote for Addison Russell just showing up and being awesome.
Yeah, well we could get a long term 2bman and have him take over for Lowrie after next year. I vote for Cano :-P
Just sign Haren and Hudson already. I do not want Colon for something like 12 M for another year.
is that what he is going to be asking for? If so I am definitely down for this plan
I doubt he asks for that. I also doubt anyone pays him anywhere near that. He’s going to be 41 years old next season. Anyone who signs him has to be doing it knowing that he’s pitching on borrowed time.
and that hes going to only be able to throw 100 pitches and probably need some DL resting time
I haven’t heard any exact figures, but the assumption seems to be that it will be nearing 8 figures. I just don’t trust him at all. If it takes 5 million or less, I suppose I’m still interested.
What about 6-7. Thats kinda where I see him
I’d imagine he’d come back for what we paid him last year. Not sure why I believe that, but I kind of think he would.
No way. He got an all-star nod this year and finished second in the AL by ERA. He won’t get paid like a top pitcher because of his age and time on the DL, but someone will offer a lot more than he’s getting this year.
I could imagine DFA’s $6-7, but only if that is base salary with incentives on top.
I just think he likes the team and wouldn’t mind staying just because. No idea why I think that or why he’d be different than the average player, but I’m left with the impression that he doesn’t care about the money. I’m totally wrong, but I do think that.
Total speculation on my part but Colon made over $2 million in bonuses with a $3 million base salary. I’d guess he’d ask for a $5.5 million base with another $2 million in bonuses available.
Sold! (It ain’t my money).
If that’s what he wants, then the A’s should give it to him. I’m worried that he’ll get more.
I would sign him for 1/10 in a split second, 2/15 in a few seconds, and it probably won’t take that much. I think signing himsuld be the #1 priority. I would like Haren/Hudson too but those guys are also gambles, will probably be more expensive, and are currently worse than Colon.
Well there goes my prefered plan
Rumor is they may buy out Mark Ellis.
Thanks, and go As.
Is Ellis better than a Sogard Callaspo platoon?
That depends. Does he bring his Unicorn power with him? Or did LA deplete them.
I don’t think so, no.
Thanks, and go As.
You might be able to maximize his value by platooning him with Sogard. Ellis (110 wRC+) has been as equally productive against LHP as Callaspo (109 wRC+) over his career, but offers a significant upgrade with defense.
Apparently buying Cubans is no longer an undervalued commodity.
Brett Anderson for Howie Kendrick, who says no?
Thanks, and go As.
I do
Wait, do you say no because you think it’s a bad deal for the A’s?? Or do you say no because you think it would never happen because the it’s too lopsided in favor of the A’s?
I don’t think its a good match and I don’t really like Kendrick.
Angels say hell no.
Anderson has team options for the next two years, $20M total. Kendrick is signed for the next two years at $18.85M total.
Anderson WAR over the last three years = 1.0 (2011), 0.9, 0.3. Kendrick = 5.7, 3.0, 2.7
So they have fairly equivalent contracts, maybe have similar ceilings (though you would have to be pretty sweet on Anderson to think so), but Anderson is broken and Kendrick isn’t.
And the moment we trade him to the Angels he’d become a healthy god.
I’m pretty much resigned to that happening no matter where he goes.
Still want him gone.
Thanks, and go As.
Oh me too on both counts. That’s why I don’t want him going to a division opponent. Preferably he’d go to the NL.
How about the Nationals? They’re kind of our NL Bros. and the Dbacks.
Thanks, and go As.
Send him the to D-Backs for McCarthy and some good shit?
And a pool (not of sewage).
Why would you want to pay McCarthy $9m next year?
So we can have the good shit that comes with him?
Toronto?
Thanks, and go As.
I don’t really know who they have left in their system. Daniel Norris Ive always liked but is far away.
How about an MLBer for a kind of sort of sometimes MLBer?
Stroman and Nolin are both interesting. Everything is either mediocre, very far away, or both.
Anderson for E5!
I just saw this in the Brett Anderson entry on Cot’s:
So has this happened yet?
End of the season is after the WS.
Ah, thanks.
I think they have to exercise it. Where else are they going to get a potential #1 for that kind of money?
Dan Haren is expecting to settle for a 1 year make-good deal and he’d prefer to be on the West Coast.
How about a “You Must Be CrAZy” incentive laden deal where the base is small but the bonuses for good play are insane?
I don’t see Haren signing for that little. FWIW Carson Cistulli reckons it’ll take 2/$20M to sign him.
Those fangraphs poll results think Bartolo is going to sign for 1/$8.3. If the A’s can get him for that, they should jump at it.
Ya it seems like someone will give him at least 2 years
Or else something like 1/$12.
I expect the Angels to be in on Colon, and probably any other pitchers that the A’s are considering as well.
Even with Hamilton’s flop they had a 110 OPS+ (same as Oakland) but an 89 ERA+, and with a lot of payroll money already committed, they’re probably looking bargains.
In that case a QO might not be a bad idea. Getting Colon for 1/$14M isn’t a tragedy and they could snag a comp pick.
You want to trade a 3 WAR catcher and a 2 WAR starter making the minimum for a 3 WAR 2B making $10M/year? Why? Other than the reduction in overall value for more money, the A’s need starting pitchers with Colon leaving and Parker and Anderson’s health uncertain. Phillips also isn’t the type of player who would be used to his full benefit with Oakland — with their fly ball pitching staff and BABIP suppressing park. Sogard/Callaspo weren’t good, but I’d tolerate them before I’d tolerate having Jesse Chavez or Bruce Billings in the rotation.
I really don’t think Vogt is a 3 WAR catcher. I think over a full season his defense is exposed and he would have to hit LHP.
Also with Jaso coming back and resiging Colon I don’t see a lot of either playing.
FWIW I don’t see Milone being that much better than Chavez.
Wait, I took those numbers from your intro. If you believe Vogt and Milone are really 1 WAR players then the trade might make sense.
Thats for their career now to arbitration
Ah, sorry about that.
No worries. Do you want to do it now?
Brown chicken, brown cow!
Sure, Vogt and Milone seem like Melhuse and Eveland
Timmeh signed a 2 year deal to stay with the assholes on the other side of the bay.
Thanks, and go As.
And may they live to regret it. Like Zito.
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Thanks, and go As.
Darn. That’s going to drive up the price on the FA SPs the A’s should look at like Santana, Kazmir, Ubaldo, Colon. Stupid Giants always bidding against themselves.
Sabean has won two titles with his pay $18M/year for a replacement level pitcher strategy, so he’s sticking with it.
It completely fucking boggles my mind that someone can keep having such a shitty process and win.
Thanks, and go As.
Luck conquers all.
CODY ROSS BEST GIANT EVER
This. Ditto with Coletti
Well they drafted Lincecum, Posey, Cain, Bumgarner and got Sandoval. That’s a pretty good core right there. They’re able to construct bullpens on the cheap. Their veteran fill-ins have been good — Vogelsong, Scutaro, Pence, Pagan. I don’t see what you mean by shitty process. Their one boondoggle was signing Zito, but even he won Game 5 of the NLCS and beat Justin Verlander in the World Series.
(cough, cough) Aaron Rowan (cough, cough).
Also, I’m pretty sure they are grossly overpaying for Scutaro, Pence, and Pagan.
not signing vlad, some other smaller busts like sanders? Renteria? I don’t remember, re upping huff, things like that.
Losing a season of pre-arbitration Posey by calling him up a week too soon.
Michael Fucking Tucker
so, if the rumors were true that he turned down a 5 year $100M contract before 2012, then he needs to have one more year of $21M to break even from that rumored deal. Not a terrible gamble on his part.
Wow. I honestly don’t get it.
Wow, they’re really paying for that no hitter.
I don’t think it’s a bad deal for Lincecum. He’s durable and has swing and miss stuff. His walks have spiked up the last oouple of years but I can see why they believe in him. I’d rather have him than some guy like Scott Feldman or Matt Garza in the middle of my rotation.
I see little point in trading Cespedes and/or Anderson now. Their values are quite low if some writer could actually suggest Josh Rutledge headlining a trade for one of them. And on a roster with few areas of potential impact talent, those two are still capable of providing it.
In terms of a sell high guy that could actually bring something back, the A’s should think about trading Jarrod Parker. That could get you into the Encarnacion/Bautista discussion.
You aren’t just trading Vogt/Milone for Phillips, you’re trading away a large chunk of your budget. I’d rather use that money for Ubaldo or Kazmir + Colon.
Let’s not assume that Troy Renck has any idea how Colorado’s front office actually values Cespedes.
Re: the Rutledge/Cespedes rumor…
You could be right that it suggests Cespedes has a low value. Or it could be Renck has an inflated value on Rutledge. Or that he’s talking out his ass.
I vote a combination of options 2 & 3.
I would be fine trading Parker for Bautista. Don’t think the Jays would be in on it though.
Oh man, could that be an exciting trade. Bautista for Parker, Choice, and Nunez? I would love that but is it still not enough for TOR?
What about throwing Milone in there?
Man, it might just be me, but I don’t really want any part of a 33 year old power hitter’s potential decline years.
Thanks, and go As.
You know, I may agree with you. I’m still in love with his hitting from a couple of years ago. Bautista’s signed for his 33/34/35 years, and he’s only coming off a couple of 135 wRC+ seasons, not 170. And he has been injured each of the last two seasons.
Then again, I think Parker is just league average, with little more room for break out and I have no faith in Choice. I guess I still make the deal since we only have 2 more years of Cespedes and Lowrie, but it’s not a slam dunk. Bautista is worrying.
It’s probably enough. 4 years of a cost controlled league average pitcher with upside, a B prospect, and a C+ lottery ticket with the A’s, I’m assuming, taking on the entire contract. I’d do it but only because I think Parker is on the verge of TJS. I doubt the real A’s would though. If they trade Parker, it’d be for a younger Parker and other prospects.
LA LA LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU
Thanks, and go As.
Remember when we claimeed E5 for free and didn’t keep him. That was awesome.
Thanks, and go As.
Why do you hate Jake fox so much?
Because he sucks?
Thanks, and go As.
Hey. Fuck off. He’s awesome.
0-fer Fox sake.
this is very much a win
Because he says hatee-hatee-hatee-ho?
Wasn’t the internet consensus at the time that he basically sucked and wasn’t worth the money he would have cost if they tendered him a contract?
You can’t believe everything you read on the internet.
Wasn’t worth playing at 3B because defense..
He’s gone nuts the past 2 years though. Probably PEDs but whatever. Still a .900 OPS.
Rumor has it KC is listening to offers on Billy Butler though. That’s a decent bat that can’t play defense, like at all.
Thanks, and go As.
Nothing against the spectacularly nicknamed Country Breakfast, but he strikes me as Matt Stairs without the power.
He’s only 28, so there’s still some hope. Most hitters have peak ISO around 23-26, though, and there’s no projection whatsoever in his body.
I’d look into it though.
Whoops, 27 going on 28 next April.
Id to trade for Butler.
Oops.
Yes. For a team that can’t make the playoffs, TOR has certainly had some amazing luck creating hitters
It’s the sushi.
Since their second world series win they have only finished above third place once, and they haven’t been higher than fourth since 2007. It’s a pretty impressive run of lousiness for a team with some talent and resources.
Still they’re well behind the Cubs
I said on AN that we should keep him
As I recall, he was seen as about as valuable as Kouzmanoff, but with his calling card his bat. So basically, we chose Kouz over him.
yup
Reposting this not because I really care about Lincecum, but because I hadn’t heard that fact, and it could have a big effect on both Oakland’s payroll next year and on what we’re bidding against.
I’ve seen the TV dollars set at $26 million, but yeah, expect price tags to kick up a notch.
Not sure about arbitration salaries though.
That translated to about 11.5M for the payroll.
“Slight overpay” is basically meaningless. If it’s not a gross overpay or screaming bargain, it’s not worth worrying about. The object is to maximize franchise value, not to make sure all your transactions are under some average number.
I don’t understand this position. Clearly you can get away with paying above market for some players without it causing serious problems, but if you are consistently paying players above their market value, and you don’t have either limitless resources or an incredible farm system, you are going to be in trouble at some point. The Giants have made a habit of overpaying players by amounts ranging from a little to a lot over the last few years. They have gotten away with it because their farm system produced a few of major stars and they lucked into some outlier productive months from vets on their last legs, but with the current state of their farm system and the current state of the Dodgers’ finances, they are in for a tough ride baseballwise for the next few years unless they start figuring out how to maximize the value they get for their dollars.
Now, I don’t think Lincecum is entirely, or maybe even mostly, a baseball decision. The Giants seem to have put a premium for the last few years on keeping their World Series heroes around at inflated salary numbers even when they are clearly on the decline, probably because they think it is necessary from a marketing standpoint. That’s not nothing, from a “maximizing franchise value” point of view, but I wonder if it is an approach that can compete with L.A. on the field.
The issue is that as fans with limited information, we can’t really define “above” or “below” market for specific teams. For the league in general, sure $/WAR is a basic estimate of market value (heavy emphasis on basic). With the new TV contracts, along with the seemingly exponential rise of franchise values in general, we are rapidly losing whatever minute ability we had of estimating a team’s budget.
Take the Angels for example. Everyone gloated when they took on Wells’s contract with the belief that it’d cripple their finances for years. Then everyone gloated when they took on Pujols and Wilson. Then everyone gloated when they took on Hamilton. And everyone’s gloating now with no self awareness whatsoever.
Of course, I’m not making the argument that this applies to the Giants in this specific instance. More that we, as fans, should probably hesitate when we pretend we know anything about a team’s budget and what constitutes an “overpay”/”underpay” (yes, certainly I count myself as also being prone to this).
That’s fair. Certain teams have such outrageous revenue streams at this point that they are basically operating without a budget. (Although the luxury tax seems to provide some bite, judging by the Yankees’ actions over the last year.) I just don’t think the Giants are one of those teams at this point, in part because of the existence of the A’s. Their budget isn’t as low as the A’s, so they can afford more “mistakes,” but the cumulative effect of their decisions to pay big money to average players will be felt.
I gloated about the Angels because they gave out two huge contracts to hitters when their biggest need was pitching.
Thanks, and go As.
I also gloated over the Wells contract because they gave up Napoli to get it.
I gloated because Im an asshole who likes gloating and it seemed like as good a reason as any.
Tagline?
Yes.
I hoped it would be
judging from fan reaction I have heard (personal anecdotal, meaning people I interact with) they are super happy about re upping Lincecum.
I’m saying that “overpay” isn’t that precise a term. Some neophytes define this as looking at Fangraphs and dividing Salary either by Projected WAR or Actual WAR and computing an average. For the sake of discussion let’s say this average is $5M/WAR. Then these people trumpet any opposing team signing an FA for more then $5M/WAR as they think that WAR will be. None of these numbers is very precise. Not the $5M/WAR, which could really be anywhere from $4M to $6M, and for certain teams a lot more, depending on how close they are to 92 Wins or whatever will win their division, how close to their rivals, and how big their market. So really the $5M/WAR that I’ve seen people naively apply could really be anywhere from $4M to $8M or something. Yes I can see your point that if you make a habit of paying every player $20M/WAR and your’re really aggressive on your WAR estimates (e.g. estimating all 3-4 WAR players at 4.5 WAR) then you’ll run into budget problems. But we have no idea what WAR the Giants attach to Lincecum…it could be anywhere from 2 to 5, nor do we know how close they think they are to the Dodgers in the projected standings, nor do we know what the multiplier is for annual income to franchise value for them.
Or, it could just be that Sabean gave a guy more money than he should have, just like he’s done before.
Lincecum didn’t even bother testing free agency. That alone tells me that he got at least as much money as he thought he’d get on the open market (or he’s got a bad agent)
Thanks, and go As.
at the end of the day you don’t get money for winning though. You get money for putting a product people want to see on the field and having them buy tickets and in that case Timmey is more valuable for the Giants than every other team because of his built in market in SF. They should be willing to pay him more than other teams because of it
This subthread has been great, thank you all.
And I think Lincecum is going to deliver and the Giants will be happy with this deal.
Fwiw
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131021&content_id=63215074&vkey=news_t542&c_id=t542
F
MLBTR just did their free agent profile on Corey Hart, suggesting he could sign for 1/$8MM with a few million in performance incentives.
Any takers?
I think he’d be an upgrade over Freiman.
Not worth it if he’s just replacing Freiman. He’d probably have to get time at DH against RHP too to be worth anywhere near $8MM.
Im leaning on him being my FA preference for the year. Makes less than cy
Probably relegated to 1B/DH after the knee surgery. You think he’s worth the money over Choice/Smith/Jaso/Moss/Freiman or whoever else will play 1B/DH this year. There’s no way he’s worth $8MM if he just takes over Freiman’s platoon role.
The real question is:
What is the budget?
Are the A’s still spending in the $60 million range or does the new TV money bump them to $80 million?
Supposedly the upper limit is half the total revenue. Whether they actually get there or not may depend on who’s available and for what. I’d say somewhere in the mid-60 to low 70s would be an accurate max though.
They were at 70 at the end of the year supposedly
I suspect they could easily push 80 and still profit handsomely. There are good reasons they don’t (along with the typical conspiracy theory ones and some overlap between the two). I’d guess it doesn’t go too far over 70 primarily because every since dropping some of the uglier contracts, they’ve avoided putting themselves in a hole where they have no choice but to have a max budget for several years with zero roster flexibility to add on, etc. If you start around 70, that still allows you to add on a temporary piece mid-season and/or have the flexibility to make unforeseen/unpredictable decisions later.
There are some good baseball reasons, but at the end of the day I bet 100% that the overriding factor is that if you do it once people will expect it. Imagine the whining if you went from 80 in 14 to 60 in 15. “Wolf sucks he doesn’t want a winner in Oakland. He cut payroll”
And there’s your conspiracy theory one…
how is that a conspiracy theory?
I really don’t think give a shit about any fan whining for one thing. For another, they already whine that they don’t spend enough.
Right but they would whine more.
And they’d care about the whining just as much as they do now.
Where did you see/hear this? I’ve never found a source that shows a team’s total actual expenditures on salary. Every place I’ve looked shows the final collective salaries, not what the teams actually spent. B-R, for example, shows the A’s 2013 salary commitment as $68.45 million. But they’re counting Kurt Suzuki’s full $6.45 million salary as part of that final total.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=9109410
Say that they were at 68 before the start of the year + Callaspo + Suzuki
I saw it somewhere else with a beane quote at the end of the year/playoff time but my work Google fu is lacking
I don’t think ESPN knows what its talking about.
I took the Opening Day roster and added up the salary for the starting 25, plus Colon, Nakajima, Rosie, Rodriguez, Parrino and Barton. (Blackley got trade early April, so I didn’t include his salary.)
I get 62.257 million for the Opening Day payroll.
Colon most likely got $2+ million in bonuses. Callaspo maybe $1.25 million. Zooks $675,000.
That’s about $67 million by the end of the season, not counting any other bonuses. Kentucky windage to $70 million…
This is why I’d like to find a reliable final number!
Thanks, and go As.