He needs to replace Glen. He’s perfect for TV where it’s more about personality and less about description. Okay, not perfect. But if he’s going to do a job of pxp, it needs to be TV.
I don’t know anything about him. From the stats, looks like he has decent power, but didn’t start hitting much until he was 26 at AAA. Still has options left, which could be useful.
Still haven’t heard any rumors about specific teams with interest in Reddick (or Hill, which is less surprising given his blister). I don’t know how likely it is they’ll just hold on to him and get the draft pick from making a qualifying offer. Seems like someone should offer more than that. Sadly, a long-term extension does not seem to be in the cards.
The actual deadline is 4 p.m. Eastern on Monday, which is 3 hours before the earliest first pitch that day. If the deadline were during the day Sunday you’d have guys getting Canseco’d out of on-deck circles all over the league.
Abysmal command. The velocity is there for the most part, but it seems like he’s either grooving it down the middle or throwing it to the backstop. I just realized he literally has the worst ERA among qualified starters.
I wouldn’t be opposed to him going to the minors to figure stuff out, cause there’s probably a lot of things wrong with him mechanically (and probably mentally), if it wasn’t for our dumpster fire of starting pitching depth.
Agreed with this even with the dumpster fire. Im 100% in favor of bringing back and sort of retread we need to let Sonny go someplace quite and just work on Sonny.
The only reason I can think they wouldnt is Sonny has some sort of issue against it. I wouldnt really blame him for that, but at the same time I would hope he wants to get better and can be honest that his shit just isnt working right now.
I think she passed on Tue or Wed. Which must be why he had been out before.
I dont have the links, but they had said if anyone is so inclined they can make donations on her behalf to the Visalia Rescue Mission. I guess she was a long time volunteer/worker there.
Coming from the team that gave Billy Butler 30 million dollars and is refusing to give Josh Reddick a fair contract, something that fucking dumb wouldn’t really surprise me.
And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here
-slusser.
Sickels (midseason updates, grades are pre-season):
5) Frankie Montas, RHP, Grade B/B+: On DL to open season due to rib surgery; came back in May and pitched well (22/3 K/BB in 16 innings in high minors, 2.25 ERA) before returning to disabled list with more rib problems. A matter of health at this point; he looked excellent in his brief time on the mound this spring.
8) Grant Holmes, RHP, Grade B: Performing very well in High-A, 3.39 ERA in 90 innings, 89/36 K/BB; still could use some command tightening but on course overall at age 20; curveball seems more reliable this year.
11) Jharel Cotton, RHP, Grade B-: 4.85 ERA in 85 innings in Triple-A but with 106/31 K/BB, 67 hits; ERA is misleading; K/IP and low hit rate more representative of his ability though he needs to get the walks down. Should be ready for a trial down the stretch.
This. Good haul or not, Reddick is really one of the few people that I feel like adds more than just his #’s. (Though I wouldn’t have said that during that god awful 2013.
I also am guessing that this ends the pies, which is really heart breaking.
Don’t you have to win games for pie? (and, if I recall the hazy distant past, there’s some sort of other special thing besides winning a baseball game)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
The main issue is that Montas is currently injured (aggravated a broken rib injury), and that he and Cotton may be destined for the bullpen. Holmes is a likely starter but he’s a 20 year old in A ball so it’s just too early to tell. Considering Hill’s current issues though, I think this is the best they could’ve hoped for.
All three have great stuff though. Montas is absolutely filthy.
i realized later, the searchable terms only make it seem like our investigation into his WTF’ness is pointed. but really you can put random words in there or just read chronologically, and it’s all fairly WTF.
*i’m* AV. alex vause. put this loon in psych before she hurts someone.
Meh. The A’s aren’t competing in the next 3 – 4 years. Reddick wants to compete. Ergo, not on the same page. (I know, I know, not quite actually true, but still true).
I just don’t really see the point (except as clickbait) of converting a polls-only model (which reacts to polling noise, as well as predictable short-term effects like “convention bounce”) into a probability. No one in their right mind would have bet on Trump winning at anything close to even odds two days ago. What’s the value of a model that makes predictions that everyone knows are wrong?
The point is that you get more stability by including some prior in the model(as in the “fundamentals” in Silver’s “polls-plus” model, or by noting Trump’s historically-unprecedented unfavorability ratings) or by using longer-term polling averages (as in Wang’s polls-only model). If you don’t do either of these things, you end up with a “model” that is based on little more than short-term polling averages combined with how far away the election is. That’s fine in the sense that “it is what it is,” but when you go on to convert it to a probability, as DeLong says
it is just a number, rather than a “probability” of anything–other than that this stochastic process (which does not describe anything in the real world) starting at this point with this uncertainty with these parameters evolves in this way.
Which is all a long-winded way of saying, I don’t think much really changed in the last few days, except maybe that a handful of people who had started to forget just how bad Trump is were reminded of it, which was bound to happen some time between now and November.
It’s been clear for a while that Trump has been basically disqualified in the eyes of between 50 and 55 percent of the electorate. Real hard to win under those conditions.
I’ve always thought it was a matter of when, not if, enough Bernie-left and moderate stragglers would come around to Hillary, however grudgingly, to push her to an insurmountable lead. He (and the DNC) may have just made it happen a little more quickly than it otherwise might have.
The idea of a “probability” for an election that will never be replicated is a bit problematic period. I think I can understand it in a Bayesian sense, but it’s pretty hard to understand with classical statistics.
Yeah. There is the lesser problem that we have n~50 for presidential elections in total and the greater problem that it’s not clear that elections from say the 1800’s can tell us anything about today.
On that note, it seems a little misleading to me that the Times model is describing the probability of Clinton losing as the same as the probability of a major league hitter striking out. (They upgraded that yesterday from “an NBA player missing a free throw.”)
Missouri has gone hard right over the last 20 years. It’s just too white for a Democrat to win at the presidential level with the way the coalitions currently shake out.
The southeastern states combine large black populations, emerging Latino populations, and lots of college educated whites who are abandoning the Trump GOP at the moment.
Yeah, with Trump on the ballot I’d put somewhere like Mississippi and maybe even Texas ahead of Missouri/Indiana just based on pure demographics. Trump kills in places with just enough minorities to radicalize white voters, but not enough to tip an election. That’s Indiana and Missouri.
Things are so screwed up that I would expect (or at least hope) that not being supported by GOP candidate for President would be an advantage in a GOP primary.
It’s a much bigger problem for McCain in Arizona, since Trump is huge with the Jan Brewers of the world. McCain has been trying to white-knuckle his way through August and then probably try to drop Trump once he has gotten through his primary against a right-wing nut. Trump isn’t going to make that strategy easy.
Best part is Trump saying he’s “not quite there yet” with Ryan, which is the exact same formulation Ryan used when he was hemming and hawing on endorsing Trump.
Because Trump is a “dishonest demagogue” who could lead the country on a “very dangerous journey” to the end of democracy and has already “undermined the character of the country.”
I prefer it when they have a lefty hitting because I don’t have to see Wahoo.
Whoa, Cleveland has the best record in the AL!
Bruce Jenkins…ugh.
what an ass
This is also pretty ignorant.
That trade sucked, but they absolutely needed Lester.
that is not the trade that sucked, but yeah, they needed a pitcher
That trade sucked.
i was not as flummoxed by that trade.
it doesn’t hurt that a guy I have daily contact with and consider an imbecile thinks its the worst thing that ever happened in the world
vince took about 3 minutes to tell me that the throw behind bauer resulted in a runner on base.
I truly think he sometimes forgets that the people he is speaking to can’t see the game.
It’s such a stark contrast with Korach, who always lets you know exactly what’s happening.
He needs to replace Glen. He’s perfect for TV where it’s more about personality and less about description. Okay, not perfect. But if he’s going to do a job of pxp, it needs to be TV.
yes. agree. and he is better than glenn
Butler stays hot. Forst’s phone must be ringing off the hook with offers for such a clutch hitter.
And look at him hustle on that foul ball! Guy’s a gamer.
They can’t get him out!
send him, bob
So Graveman’s good now. Building block for the future good?
SCHLONG + KHRUSH
oh my
I like this kind of party.
If I could pick any super power, it would be to have the strength of Khris Davis.
Davis wears Mike Stanton jammies to bed though.
Thanks, and go As.
Power Hour Leaves Bauer Dour
Otero in for Bauer.
You know, the A’s could help exorcise some Team Dynamite ghosts here.
nope
davis….
rajai…. ( i should say)
Rajai still with limited awareness on the paths.
fuck this inning
you know if otero comes in the game with runners on and an A’s lead, the lead will disappear
Dull Not Sharp
TeAseage
Mmmmmm that’s good teAse.
Huh. Pretty soon everyone is going to be wearing those giant wristbands college quarterbacks have.
And just like that, the Billy Burns era is over.
Great trade. And not just because I would’ve traded Burns for a bag of balls. Eibner could actually be something.
I don’t know anything about him. From the stats, looks like he has decent power, but didn’t start hitting much until he was 26 at AAA. Still has options left, which could be useful.
BUT HE CAN CHANGE A GAME WITH HIS LEGS!
SPEED NEVER SLUMPS!
I would say that he will fit in well with the Royals (speedy slap hitter), but Burns never really struck me as an asshole.
heh
Dear Chris Gimenez: Please start more shit with Billy Butler.
Country. Breakfast.
i just got home, looked at the giminez and butler jawing first and then the hr.
that was neat.
but why were glen and ray so confused? why was the cleveland infield so confused?
It’s very confusing when Billy Butler is able to hit a ball that far.
let’s just not have overton take up any inning, okay?
nice. last double by reddick as an A
Still haven’t heard any rumors about specific teams with interest in Reddick (or Hill, which is less surprising given his blister). I don’t know how likely it is they’ll just hold on to him and get the draft pick from making a qualifying offer. Seems like someone should offer more than that. Sadly, a long-term extension does not seem to be in the cards.
LTE for Hill, or Reddick?
Signing Hill long term would scare the piss out of me.
If Reddick really only wants 3/45 or 4/60 or whatever it is for 15M per, that’s a no brainer.
Thanks, and go As.
It is, but it was a no brainer last year, and in spring training as well. The fact that there is 0 movement on it was a huge issue.
Can someone explain to me why the deadline in 8/1 and not 7/31 like always?
Maybe because 7/31 is a Sunday. Though that’s kind of begging the question, since it’s not clear why that would matter.
no mail delivery?
The actual deadline is 4 p.m. Eastern on Monday, which is 3 hours before the earliest first pitch that day. If the deadline were during the day Sunday you’d have guys getting Canseco’d out of on-deck circles all over the league.
Lucroy vetoes trade. This is a good opportunity for the A’s to reach out to see if the Indians would be interested in Vogt.
That scouting report on Hill must be pretty thin.
Boy, that weather looks just brutal. Impossible to play in those conditions.
those puffy white clouds in the distance sure do look…something
puffy?
good job sonny. can you please wait to break my heart when I am wondering around treasure island?
Wondering why he can’t get the bottom of the order out?
They just showed a graphic of avg against Sonny by lineup position
#8: .465
#9: .450
He got no outs against the 7-9 hitters today.
Getting really tired of this bs.
What do you think? Is he broken?
Abysmal command. The velocity is there for the most part, but it seems like he’s either grooving it down the middle or throwing it to the backstop. I just realized he literally has the worst ERA among qualified starters.
I wouldn’t be opposed to him going to the minors to figure stuff out, cause there’s probably a lot of things wrong with him mechanically (and probably mentally), if it wasn’t for our dumpster fire of starting pitching depth.
Getting Sonny back to being Sonny is pretty much the only goal for the rest of this season that means anything. Whatever it takes.
Agreed with this even with the dumpster fire. Im 100% in favor of bringing back and sort of retread we need to let Sonny go someplace quite and just work on Sonny.
The only reason I can think they wouldnt is Sonny has some sort of issue against it. I wouldnt really blame him for that, but at the same time I would hope he wants to get better and can be honest that his shit just isnt working right now.
wandering
and no, just off the bridge and parking.
Run on Reddick? Don’t.
C’mon Cleveland, you know you want IBISV.
Slusser said his mom just died?
I think she passed on Tue or Wed. Which must be why he had been out before.
I dont have the links, but they had said if anyone is so inclined they can make donations on her behalf to the Visalia Rescue Mission. I guess she was a long time volunteer/worker there.
Hmmm…smells like bluffing.
Coming from the team that gave Billy Butler 30 million dollars and is refusing to give Josh Reddick a fair contract, something that fucking dumb wouldn’t really surprise me.
Thanks, and go As.
At what point does “giving a 3 year contract to Madson” get on to that list?
The day it was signed.
Thanks, and go As.
The Rich Hill saga is why Brett Anderson will still be around several years from now. (Looks up Anderson’s age…holy crap he’s only 28.)
it’ll be like getting an ace in may 2022!
lol
That is awesome.
Well, at least this piece doesn’t suck
God dammit.
Thanks, and go As.
Thanks, and go As.
Sickels (midseason updates, grades are pre-season):
Sounds like a pretty good haul for two months of Reddick plus who knows how many Hill starts. I’m really going to miss Reddick though.
This. Good haul or not, Reddick is really one of the few people that I feel like adds more than just his #’s. (Though I wouldn’t have said that during that god awful 2013.
I also am guessing that this ends the pies, which is really heart breaking.
Don’t you have to win games for pie? (and, if I recall the hazy distant past, there’s some sort of other special thing besides winning a baseball game)
The main issue is that Montas is currently injured (aggravated a broken rib injury), and that he and Cotton may be destined for the bullpen. Holmes is a likely starter but he’s a 20 year old in A ball so it’s just too early to tell. Considering Hill’s current issues though, I think this is the best they could’ve hoped for.
All three have great stuff though. Montas is absolutely filthy.
pretty
Fangraphs
The Brewers just got Bickford and Susac from the Giants for Will Smith. Can we please dump Madson?
Gotta eat the contract, probably.
that seems…dumb
So the Dodgers have McCarthy, Anderson, Kazmir, and Hill. They should sign Rich Harden to round out that rotation.
SO CLOSE.
Thanks, and go As.
ha!
Meanwhile the Red Sox have Pomeranz, Zeigler and Abad … surely Madson can’t be far behind.
Why did no one want any of our shitty, overpaid relievers? This whole thing is rigged. Sad!
maybe lay off the trump tweets for a day or two? you’re starting to pick up his cadence…
WE HAVE A LOT OF RELIEF PITCHERS. SOME OF THE VERY BEST RELIEF PITCHERS.
Thanks, and go As.
believe me.
Our prospects are going to be yuge. We got prospect. The best prospects.
#crookedAV
Can you post this way until November? Please?
A lot of people are saying GM doesn’t even write his own comments, Okay?
Lying Future Ed of the failing Free Kraut (low traffic) said some really, really nasty things about me. Totally biased. Don’t read!
i’m gonna burry this here, so nobody clicks on it unless they really need to.
http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/#/
and… searchable.
This makes sense.
Obsessed much?
Obsessed. Much.
wut
etc
i realized later, the searchable terms only make it seem like our investigation into his WTF’ness is pointed. but really you can put random words in there or just read chronologically, and it’s all fairly WTF.
I think I like the holiday ones the best.
So I guess we still get to watch Lowrie, Madson, Axford, Rzep, Valencia, Coco, and Butler for the rest of the year. Fun.
What the FK?
Well everyone else was trading and we wanted to trade too. Problem is no one wants any of our players…
We have closure. Per Slusser, a hot dog is not a sandwich.
Thanks, and go As.
She’s right. But if she tries to tell me I can’t put ketchup on it we are going to have a problem.
She’s a vegetarian. All her hot-dog-related opinions are automatically suspect.
She told me that. I countered by saying that they make veggie dogs.
Thanks, and go As.
TWHS
Yep, fuck this team.
Thanks, and go As.
Cheap as all get out.
I’m waiting for them to bench Coco at 129 games next.
Maybe just maybe, David, you guys aren’t on the same page cause you’re valuing him about the same as Billy FKing Butler.
Meh. The A’s aren’t competing in the next 3 – 4 years. Reddick wants to compete. Ergo, not on the same page. (I know, I know, not quite actually true, but still true).
Holy shit. Actions have consequences. Look at that bump!
New CNN poll has him in fourth place among non-whites, at 7%.
Their odds change way too quickly.
You think? It’s a GOP bounce ending, a dem bounce, and a somewhat close election.
Polls plus has been relatively stable.
I just don’t really see the point (except as clickbait) of converting a polls-only model (which reacts to polling noise, as well as predictable short-term effects like “convention bounce”) into a probability. No one in their right mind would have bet on Trump winning at anything close to even odds two days ago. What’s the value of a model that makes predictions that everyone knows are wrong?
I think its a reaction to Trump. He doesn’t completely trust the polls-plus.
See also DeLong (responding to Yglesias tweets very similar to what I said above), and Sam Wang on why his own polls-only forecasts are so stable.
The point is that you get more stability by including some prior in the model(as in the “fundamentals” in Silver’s “polls-plus” model, or by noting Trump’s historically-unprecedented unfavorability ratings) or by using longer-term polling averages (as in Wang’s polls-only model). If you don’t do either of these things, you end up with a “model” that is based on little more than short-term polling averages combined with how far away the election is. That’s fine in the sense that “it is what it is,” but when you go on to convert it to a probability, as DeLong says
Which is all a long-winded way of saying, I don’t think much really changed in the last few days, except maybe that a handful of people who had started to forget just how bad Trump is were reminded of it, which was bound to happen some time between now and November.
It’s been clear for a while that Trump has been basically disqualified in the eyes of between 50 and 55 percent of the electorate. Real hard to win under those conditions.
I’ve always thought it was a matter of when, not if, enough Bernie-left and moderate stragglers would come around to Hillary, however grudgingly, to push her to an insurmountable lead. He (and the DNC) may have just made it happen a little more quickly than it otherwise might have.
The idea of a “probability” for an election that will never be replicated is a bit problematic period. I think I can understand it in a Bayesian sense, but it’s pretty hard to understand with classical statistics.
Do you mean in terms of the unrepeatability of a Trump candidacy? And if so, is this a terrestrial version of cosmic variance?
Yeah. There is the lesser problem that we have n~50 for presidential elections in total and the greater problem that it’s not clear that elections from say the 1800’s can tell us anything about today.
On that note, it seems a little misleading to me that the Times model is describing the probability of Clinton losing as the same as the probability of a major league hitter striking out. (They upgraded that yesterday from “an NBA player missing a free throw.”)
With Hillary up to 84% in the Times model, a loss would now be considerably less likely than a strikeout. They need a new analogy.
wilt chamberlin striking out?
Now it’s “about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a field goal.”
Now-cast currently showing a blue Georgia, Arizona, and South Carolina.
and yet, Missouri still red
Missouri has gone hard right over the last 20 years. It’s just too white for a Democrat to win at the presidential level with the way the coalitions currently shake out.
The southeastern states combine large black populations, emerging Latino populations, and lots of college educated whites who are abandoning the Trump GOP at the moment.
And Indiana. Same deal, I guess.
Yeah, with Trump on the ballot I’d put somewhere like Mississippi and maybe even Texas ahead of Missouri/Indiana just based on pure demographics. Trump kills in places with just enough minorities to radicalize white voters, but not enough to tip an election. That’s Indiana and Missouri.
True Athletic
This is
phenomenaltremendous (duh)Thanks, and go As.
This is truly hilarious. Ryan’s primary is next week.
Just how much shit are you prepared to eat, Paul?
Things are so screwed up that I would expect (or at least hope) that not being supported by GOP candidate for President would be an advantage in a GOP primary.
Possibly in Wisconsin, where Trump lost.
It’s a much bigger problem for McCain in Arizona, since Trump is huge with the Jan Brewers of the world. McCain has been trying to white-knuckle his way through August and then probably try to drop Trump once he has gotten through his primary against a right-wing nut. Trump isn’t going to make that strategy easy.
Best part is Trump saying he’s “not quite there yet” with Ryan, which is the exact same formulation Ryan used when he was hemming and hawing on endorsing Trump.
So Reddick (and Hill) are stepping into this. Good luck guys.
guess i chose the wrong time to take on a shitty trial
Brett Eibner had a HR and 4 walks in his first game with Nashville.
Billy Burns had 0 HR and 12 walks (combined MLB and AAA) this year.
I’ve been off the grid for a few days, now holy crap! We traded Billy Burns?
:(
Did Josh give 30 days notice on June 30? And I wonder exactly when the emptying occurred.
Extension talks were complicated by Forst being unable to hear Reddick over the sound of packing tape being unspooled.
I doubt Healy had been living there more than a couple of weeks. Simplifies that timing.
how is it emptied out?
did josh arrive home sunday, rent a u haul and pack it up, then leave monday and rent a place over the phone?
Still three months to the election!!!
what did they expect?
Bob Davidson just tossed a fan sitting 15 rows behind the visiting dugout in Philly.
he didn’t come sit?
*slide whistle*
does the article say what her angle is? why?
Because Trump is a “dishonest demagogue” who could lead the country on a “very dangerous journey” to the end of democracy and has already “undermined the character of the country.”
Oh, and she compared him to Hitler.
FWIW
sounds like, although the A’s prospects aren’t super, they did as well as can be expected with the chits that they had