Do you all think this means Sizemore might get ABs at 1B, that they will move him there to share it with Moss and he’ll also share 2B with Lowrie? Sizemore picked up 3B pretty fast so I don’t doubt they’d give him a look at 1B, which is easier.
So Lowrie is currently signed to 1/2.4 and his total service time is 4.111 years (both values according to Cot’s). Does that mean that this is his last year of club control, or will he still be arby-eligible after 2013?
One reason to like this trade is that Carter was basically insurance in case Moss flops whereas Lowrie is insurance in case Donaldson, Hiro, Sizemore, Weeks, and/or Green suck. Also, trading a starting DH for a starting SS is always a good deal. If you’re high on Peacock and Stassi (I’m not) then you might dislike the trade for that reason.
It was posted over at ** but Lowrie’s injury history isn’t as bad as you may think. He missed most of one season with Mono and then last year’s injury was due to someone sliding into him. Give him the Zobrist treatment (minus the OF) and give him regular rest and he could play in 120+ games.
Seems I’m in the minority — I think this is a brilliant trade.
Value-wise, meh, it’s probably fairly even.
But roster-construction-wise, I think this is a really shrewd move. First of all, Beane was burned by injuries 2007-2011, and the line was always more or less that they had the players, they just needed them to stay on the field… now they have the players and they have the players for when the players can’t stay on the field…
Nakajima starts at SS, and if he sucks, Lowrie will very quickly take over as the starting shortstop. If he doesn’t suck, Lowrie acts as the super-utility of the infield until someone gets injured, plus giving people much needed days off to keep them from getting injured. Either way, Lowrie plays a fair amount at the beginning, and then likely becomes a starter at some point into the season. Not only does this system (just as in the outfield) provide security in case of injury, but helps reduce the chance of injury.
The one thing it does signify is belief that Moss will continue to be good, but as a believer in Moss, I’m fine with that. And Carter really was still a wild card, despite his flashes of awesomeness. My guess is that the A’s were worried by the fact that Carter had a massive slump at the end of 2012. In the minors, he always took a while to adjust to the next level, and then destroyed it. Perhaps him showing that he had sucked in the majors, figured it out, but then sucked again, made the A’s worry that that pattern was… falling apart.
Personally I think this makes the 2013 A’s vastly better, and really just not that likely to not be good… a lot of things have to go wrong at this point for that to happen.
My initial reaction? I do not understand this trade. Yes, Chris Carter is pretty one-dimensional but he came around last year. I guess Jed Lowrie will fill in somehow as a backup infielder for the A’s but I see they gave up on Brad Peacock already too.
More on the remarkable ascent of Macklemore’s “Thrift Shop” to #1. Only the second song from an independent label ever to ascend to #1 on Billboard’s charts (and the only other one was because the unknown signer knew a famous actor who put it in his movie). This commentator says it’s the tip of the iceberg, as the privileged sanctum of music bigshots is about to collapse in the face of more accessible self-promotion opportunities.
1) There’s already 3 lefties projected to be in the pen (Blackley, Doolittle, Blevins). I think Norberto and Figueroa go to AAA to stretch out as starters given the lack of depth there.
2) To beat a dead horse, a lot of the problems solved by these recent trades could’ve been solved by signing Youkilis or Napoli and/or trading for Yunel.
3) The stuff about Nakajima still being the starting shortstop is probably just initial PR for Nakajima’s camp. Healthy Lowrie is just unquestionably better than Nakajima. I’m going to guess that on opening day, Lowrie will starting at short “so we can put guys in the best position to succeed”.
I’m surprised. This one could come back to bite the A’s, if Carter is for real and in the division. (I’m skeptical, but he’s a hard guy to figure out, and certainly had flashes of brilliance.) Adding the extra pieces adds to the risk.
But I was tired of not having a real shortstop. And he will be the starting shortstop if healthy.
Finding a first baseman, if Moss flops, is easier than finding a shortstop. Years of SS mediocrity have taught us that.
I don’t love this trade. I get it, but I don’t love it. When Carter is on, damn is he good. And I think Peacock, while he’s never going to be a star, is valuable and the A’s should have been able to get more for him. Stassi? Meh.
Lowrie doesn’t excite me, but he’s solid good when he’s on the field, but I feel like he’s just a cog in the A’s injury machine.
One thing I haven’t seen on here is this: due to new league construction, and the perpetual interleague series, it will be nigh impossible to “stack” your roster for your interleague roadtrip. So, that said, its strategically malfeasant to have a roster spot that is dead weight 80% of the time. Given current construction, the 13 guys who are not pitchers will be rotating in and out of positions for rest/platoon maximization, and will allow Bob to do the ol’ double switch more often and not lose a step in interleague.
ALSO, the addition of the pitcher means we have another arm, not for our bullpen (guys stats were horrendous)but, when he gets up to snuff, another arm to do the sac/oak shuttle when we need fresh arms. Hi-ho option year!
ALSO if any of you like crab, seek me out. Hosting a crab feed in March.
Those three positions were either the three worst positions on the A’s or 3 of the 4 worst (A’s 3b hit .227/.280/.391/.671) in terms of offensive production last year. At the very least, the A’s should get better production at the plate from those three positions.
Three main acquisitions this year are Young, Jaso and Lowrie.
Their observed platoon splits are 0.060 wOBA, 0.093 wOBA and 0.062 wOBA. Even after regressing, they are significantly above league averages of 0.023, 0.035 and 0.040. The A’s were second most frequent creators of platoon plate appearances last year. I expect them to easily be number one by the end of 2013
- Starters versus starters is where you accrue the biggest part of your PlatoonPA
- Starters versus starters account for about a half of all PA
- Last year, the A’s had 64% of those PA versus RHP
- Per position, there are about 700 PA per year, meaning that the A’s will roughly have 240 PA versus RHP and 120 versus LHP (only starter versus starter) per position
Imagine a team with a starting catcher and a backup catcher. They alternate randomly, with starter getting two thirds of the starts. So The Starter would have 160 PA versus right and 80 versus left, and The Backup 80 and 40. Now imagine we are talking about Jaso and Norris and going to extremes, where Jaso gets all 240 PA versus right and Norris all 120 starts versus left.
What that does is creates 80 PlatoonPA (the ones where he switched the matchup from less favorable one to a more favorable one) for Jaso and another 80 for Norris.
Keep going on in this extreme scenario, there are 1080 PA for the 2B/SS/3B. Instead of evenly spread 270 PA for Sizemore, Donaldson, Nakajima and Lowrie (180 vs R, 90 vs L), imagine Lowrie gets 270 versus left, leaving the other three with 240/30 split each.
That’s 180 PlatoonPA for Lowrie, 60 for each one of the other three.
Similar for outfield, with Seth and Coco taking the role of Lowrie. So instead of five players going 144/72, you have Coco and Smith with 216/0 and Cespedes, Reddick and Young going 96/120.
That’s 72 PlatoonPa for Coco and Theth, 38 for each of the other three.
Even using league average splits and even without accounting for additional 1B/DH PA, that is two wins added
I met Lowrie’s mother-in-law back in 2008, at a bed and breakfast in Boston (or maybe Brookline?). They weren’t married back then, but he and his girlfriend had been together since back at Stanford. I got into a conversation with the mother at breakfast because of the Stanford connection and she was telling me about her daughter, who was a pole vaulter and at the time was getting a masters in international relations from the Woodrow Wilson school at Princeton. Then she mentioned that the reason they were in town was because her daughter’s boyfriend played for the Red Sox (except Lowrie was already injured at that point). Jed and his girlfriend were going to come by the B&B to pick her up later, but I had to run so I didn’t hang around to spy.
Having slept on it, I really think that the evaluation of this trade depends on what you think of Chris Carter, more so than any of the other four players.
If you think that Carter is the player he was last year, this is probably not a good trade. But here’s the thing – the odds of Carter repeating last season are really, really low. And by that I don’t mean what he did in the terms of a final result, more as a how he got there.
Last year Carter had wOBA of over .360 and K% of over 31%. Do you know how many players had a qualifying season like that in last 50 years? Four. So, I guess the question is, which one do you think represents his skill more, K-rate or wOBA. And if I had to guess, I’d say K-rate. First because it stabilizes much faster than wOBA, and second, because his high wOBA was fueled by ISO of .275, better than anuything he’s done in Minors, save for 2008.
1) The Astros also have Brett Wallace, and signed Carlos Pena (at $2.9 Million, their second-highest-paid player). That’s a lot of 1B/DH. (All former A’s prospects too). Carter could still find himself on the short end of a platoon. Or do they move Carter back to OF? Or Wallace to 3B?
2) On our end, does Miles Head move back to 1B? Not much else in the system there, beyond the aforementioned Shane Peterson. Sickels says Matt Olson is a B-, but he’s 18 and in low-A, so a few years away.