I figure this will not only pile up quite a few comments but also extend at least through late Wednesday, so we might as well have a dedicated November 3-4, 2020 thread. I’m approaching it like I approach the A’s postseason, hoping for the best but deep in my heart knowing crushing defeat is close at hand.
343 thoughts on “The most important election, until the next one”
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I went to Ledgers and treated myself to a bottle of Michter’s American Whiskey. I’m prepared to drink as much as needed to celebrate/anesthetize.
I have a bottle of good vinho do porto that I’ve been waiting for an excuse to open. Tonight may be the night.
Well, it’s five PM in Portugal.
I’ll probably head out to get some more alcohol in case I really need it, but man I hate to waste tomorrow.
Tomorrow: 64°F
Thursday: 66°F
Friday: 43°F
Saturday: 34°F
Sunday: 31°F
Steady progress towards hell freezing over – is that a good sign?
Given the importance of *also* showing a huge advantage in the popular vote, California being on track to smash its turnout record is promising.
hopefully good news for 15 and bad for 22
I haven’t seen any polls on these at all, but I am optimistic (of No vote) on 22 but pessimistic on 15 based on general sense of how props tend to go.
Wrong on both, at least based on early returns.
22 seems really strong with with 15% reporting.
Not that surprised at the rest. Although I don’t get the objection to 17 ear olds voting in a primary
As a government worker I can identify with the Post Office telling a federal judge nah, we’re not going to obey your court order, it doesn’t fit our employee schedules.
(for the record I am not at work today)
Having scheduled the sweeps to be too late for many states seems a bit obvious too.
I am told just now Biden campaign feeling “great” about midwest and AZ. Happy with today’s turnout in NC and GA. FL somewhat less so on both counts….
Saw posters in my neighborhood for a missing cat named Che.
Contact email address was jarreguin.
He does live on Henry St nearby. Maybe Che got liberated by Jesse’s animal rights opponents.
That is indeed the mayor’s missing cat.
Apparently Che has returned.
tu querida presencia, comandante.
moments like these i miss bed because he’d want to talk about the least important election.
i went googlin’ for validation that it was ’96 but i found this instead and now i think bed would want to talk about how many times this guy had to eat his hat.
Watching CNN you’d think we were electing the President of Florida.
I haven’t turned the TV on yet but per past experience PBS is the only one of those I can tolerate.
CNN is kind of hilarious, they know that micro-reading FLA early results is the path of foolishness but they can’t help themselves.
That said I am buoyed by their comments about relative county margins 2016 vs tonight thus far.
I don’t think I will be able to stand any TV, but still want the data pumped into my veins.
Who has the good stuff? 538 blog?
For Nevada only, and we are a “battleground” though I think with a heavy Biden lean, Jon Ralston remains the authority.
Twitter. Trust Nate C., not too many others.
nate s is very cute with everything. nice overview, but not good for today I think
That’s where I’m at most of the time. Plus ABC live
538 seems to think ABC credible enough to be the mainstream source for calls which they make note of.
Fl looking very bad….
fla was gravy
k, i’m outta here.
lol. not for me.
i put a 24hr app blocker on all social media. am looking here for anything not about the race (not getting lucky). at about 6 when i send my last work email i’m unplugging the wifi and diving into a pile of VHS.
Respect, I wish I could pull that off
it went off kilter but only a little.
worked till 8. watched 1 netflix. back on track with altman’s nashville. and mazzy star to go to sleep.
i still don’t know. #lasonestanding
FK FL
In Nevada at least election day voters were expected to be and apparently are heavily R. Mail-in votes were D. It’s a sociology thing. I’d be real careful about extrapolating from the earliest results because it depends on which of those are being counted first, in addition to the usual urban vs. rural county reporting divide.
Echos of the Coliseum
MSNBC touch screen returns guy is excited about early Ohio suburb #s. Also he’s much better than CNN guy.
Feel like we should try just ignoring Florida for a while. The attention just encourages it.
Of the menu of expanded supreme court, burn the EC and adding states, I know the least consequential would be eliminating the EC, but man it would feel much better
Wouldn’t that one take a constitutional amendment though? No realistic chance of it happening. (There is also the NPV plan of getting it passed by individual states, which might be theoretically easier, but is still not going to happen.)
Not happening without the Senate of course, but I’d like to see a massive expansion of the size of the House. That would at least go so some way to reducing the bias against big states in the electoral college.
Booo. Also, now??
MLB loves It’s sport so much it puts on award shows at the best possible times
I sometimes wonder what they would do differently if they were trying to drive down interest.
Too many of these commentators on PBS needed the walker with the tennis balls on the front legs to get to their positions in front of their cameras. I’m afraid later on tonight they’re going to cut to one of these geezers and their head will be tilted over as they’re sawing logs.
I tried MSNBC for 10 minutes or so but there’s too much waving of the blue pom-poms over there. Back to the geezers.
On PBS they’re waving the blue hair instead.
Judy Woodruff isn’t going to make it much past midnight Eastern.
Amna Nawaz is clearly their rising star and maybe needs to take this thing over even before the night ends.
Do they really call Connecticut “the land of steady habits?”
maybe the flying nun came from CT?
ASVD
Aside from realizing that the Democrats still haven’t figured their shit out in Florida I don’t have a FKing clue at this point.
My early takeaways:
1) FK Florida
2) Dem gains in NC, OH, TX, even if not enough to win those states are at least enough to suggest that PA, MI, and WI will come through as predicted; but
3) The fact that both the electoral college and the senate are still in question at all at this point is kind of depressing and says bad things about our democracy.
yes
If #2 is correct it will be enough to allay my despair about #3 for at least a few months.
Even my confidence in that is not where I would like it to be.
You fkers told me this thing was in the bag.
It shore looks like a lot closer than those polls don’t it.
Maybe, too soon to say, FL GA NC were all basically tossups going in. If PA WI MI are in similar line with polls it’s a Biden win. None of which is keeping the cork in the whiskey bottle hereabouts.
The Tar Heels may win this thing for us yet.
So far Milwaukee and Philadelphia have said they aren’t announcing all the votes until very early tomorrow morning, Like 5am Local. Those things are going both kill me and give me hope
Well, at least we are used to this
AZ possibly joining CA, OR, WA, NV and HI in the new nation of West America.
new mexico too
Eventually Texas will come over as well so we’ll have that connection to the Gulf of Mexico.
Awful lot of straight lines and right angles on the map of counties in Iowa.
Someone told me a joke when I first moved there:
Q: What happens if we slice off the bottom tier of counties and give them to Missouri, and the top tier to Minnesota?
A: The IQ of all three states goes up.
Gut feeling is that Biden is going to pull this out narrowly but, at best, Kamala will have to cast some deciding votes.
AZ holding for Biden, means I can sleep tonight.
SF is really on its game today. 851 and 0% reporting
Jesus Christ, it’s a bloodbath for progressives in California on ballot measures. What the fuck?
I am shocked that 22 is doing so well. Basically nothing I voted for is winning on the props
Yeah, the props are hugely disappointing (looks like I voted with the majority on 5 out of 12, but those were mostly the ones I didn’t think were terribly important), and kind of confusing (like the “consumer privacy” one that no one could explain at all passing easily).
heard something on your call with rose aguilar. A WaPo writer. She said Californian and american “liberals” in general vote for progressive things up to the point it starts costing them money. Like cash out of hand
So thinking your next urbr ride will cost $3 more, or the barber may have to up a price from $20 to $22 dollars because of a new business property tax structure is a bridge too far.
In that lens, the Biden/ yes 22 no 16/15 makes sense.
liberals who can comfortably afford that $3.
Man, I’d be insulted if I were the #5 Fulton bus
Well, SF as a whole was the county most opposed, and most of the others were also in the Bay Area.
Of course, that’s still a big gap between the 85% who voted for Biden there and the 60% who voted against 22. A lot of that is clearly people voting in their own interest (not just “tech bros” but also finance guys, lawyers, etc.), but another lot is also the obscene amounts of money that the companies dumped into their campaign. Advertising works, in the aggregate.
On 15, while I don’t doubt that many people believed it, the argument that business property taxes will somehow get passed down to consumers is mostly bullshit anyway. For the same reason that high ticket prices result in baseball players making a lot of money, and not the other way around.
Watch out about those early returns. Nevertheless, the night looks like a big win for the Trumpists even though Trump himself might lose. I don’t think much of my fellow Baby Boomers right now.
NYT’s “needle” just switched Georgia to tilt toward Biden for first time!
I literally have no fking idea what’s going on with Nate Cohn’s model.
Yeah. Very sudden change, so not clear what happened there. Maybe more uncounted ballots around Atlanta than they had estimated.
His note is that earlier the model was more dependent on extrapolation from FL and NC trends, whereas now its based on the actual Atlanta results.
Trump lead now under 50,000 votes. I’m starting to believe in the needle here.
Trump now suing to stop the counting there really makes me believe in the needle.
Fuck, I don’t want to be let down, but
No results from my own county yet, but Nevada is looking much more blue than purple based on returns from Washoe County (Reno/Sparks) which is considered a tossup.
And clark only about 60% reported
The state Question about the gay marriage amendment to the Constitution also has about 10 points more statewide than Biden has. Check back with me in 2022, but yes, we are thoroughly Blue in 2020.
Actually I should have said “check back with me tomorrow morning”. It’s an unpleasant surprise that it’s that close. Any ballots mailed yesterday and some mailed Monday are yet to be received, so one hopes those favor Biden.
It looks like about 80% of Douglas County’s vote has been counted.
Results (Soaker’s prediction):
Trump 63.47 (57.5). (63.47% is higher than either Romney 2012 or Trump 2016)
Biden 34.32 (32.5)
Third parties 1.16 (4)
NOTA 1.05 (6)
Man, I knew I shouldn’t have gone to bed and left you alone with the election
Someone give me a real brief summary of what I missed so far? Are we still going to win?
Biden is still probably going to win. It is not the decisive victory we were hoping for (e.g. winning FL or NC) but winning AZ is big, and overall about where people expected it to be tonight.
The worse news is the Senate. It looks like the Republicans are going to hold it, which is unexpected, and a big problem for Biden being to able to actually do anything.
Agree with andeux. My opinion only: It’s certainly closer than the polls said (and the polls are clearly liberal-biased bullshit), but I think Biden will win narrowly in the upper Midwest. This will take another 36 hours though, which shouldn’t be surprising. The Senate seems likely to remain in Mitch McConnell’s control.
Thank you both, and FK!!! Sure I can’t stand the thought of Trump winning, but without the Senate this is not worth that much
Yes and no.
It means no fixing the judiciary, no statehood for PR and DC, tough to expand voting
rights in general, pass meaningful legislation on climate change or health care, etc.
OTOH, just having control of the executive branch matters a lot for foreign policy, and for deciding which laws are enforced and how.
Plus just having Trump in charge, having a pulpit to spread disinformation and stupidity is both dangerous and emotionally draining. Being free of that is simply good for the country (and the world). Although if GM is right about 2024, Trump may not be going the fuck away as much as I had hoped, and will still be in the news constantly.
I am getting quite concerned that Susan Collins has not learned her lesson
Biden “probably going to win” is my best hope right now, a far fall from the Blue Tide I was hopeful could happen. And both WI and PA look so close that it plays to the Trump lawsuit strategy.
And if he calls his thugs into the streets in this speech in a moment I am really worried.
wishcast is that the lawsuits will be facially frivolous and will take out a lot of his working time in Nov/Dec so he won’t be able to damage as much
His speech right now is playing up that he has PA clinched unless it’s somehow stolen from him.
“This is a fraud on the American public. This is an embarrassment to our country….To me this is a very sad moment.” EC was right, this won’t end well.
He didn’t send the Proud Boys to the registrars office with flamethrowers, exceeding my expectations.
I’m still believe in rule of law enough to be sure all votes in hand now will be tallied. If those produce margins of >0.5% we should be fine.
Even dear old Judy Woodruff has smoke pouring out of her ears right now.
OK, why does Fox News (who called arizona for Biden as the first ones) have Michigan and Wisconsin going for Trump
I think Fox News is doing the NOTICE ME!! thing. They turned out to be right on Arizona but they were way way ahead of anybody else in calling that. There doesn’t seem to be any reasonable basis for doing it with MI and WI.
OK, they now have Wisconsin for Biden
And Michigan
yeah, that’s good. Makes the inevitable Pennsylvania switch less important.
Still though…
I read somewhere yesterday that Fox uses a different data source and a unique model for its election calls. Most mainstream sources use data from Edison Research, then apply their own standards of certainty. The Associated Press uses its own data. Fox uses AP’s data then filters it through its own model. Hence Fox’s calls a bit out of step with everyone else’s, supposedly not due to bias.
I read some things recently that said the guy who runs the Fox decision desk, and has for a long time, is well respected in the industry, a Democrat(!), and fiercely independent from the editorial side.
Is it the same guy whose call of Ohio (?) in 2012 led to Karl Rove melting down on air?
that was a good time. I could do without the megyn kelly walk though
Yes. Arnon Mishkin.
Trump campaign now putting out press releases attacking this guy, presumably trying to get Fox to hold off on crowning Biden once Nevada is called.
Yessssss
Especially since
m thinking no state wants to put biden over the top for fear of being nuked
My county counted 5,103 more votes today. We have a report on all the races that were entirely in-county, but as to President, Congress, state Questions, etc., anything that affects beyond the county borders, it looks like the Secretary of State is sticking to plan and will hold the report until tomorrow morning. 5,103 from us should reduce Biden’s lead by about 1,600 (~Trump 3,300, Biden 1,700, rest 100) but that pretty much does it for us. There are about 3 similar-sized counties that make any dent at all*, and after that it’s all up to Clark County.
*Washoe County is much larger but is about 50/50 so no real impact there.
getting nervous about az
Regardless, it looks like Nevada will join Florida as the swing states where Trump did a little better in 2020 than in 2016.
Like, some people weren’t sure four years ago, but now they’re saying “yeah, I want some more of this.”
Nevada has now equaled (and will probably surpass) 2016’s 2.4% margin.
Florida still gonna Florida.
Florida is the kind of state Donald Trump moves to. It’s a lost cause.
In NV, I expected some independents who decided to take a chance on Trump in 2016 because Hillary/Benghazi/E-mails etc. would come back to Biden this time. That did not happen; Trump retained all his 2016 support and even added a percentage point or so. Biden also did a little better than Clinton, with Others and NOTA being the losers. I’m sure Catherine Cortez Masto will be a top GOP target in 2022.
CCM is definitely in for a barrage, especially because there aren’t that many other targets for the Republicans to spend on. They are going to go all in to beat her and Kelly in Arizona.
Stray thoughts after “sleeping”:
1. Horrible as that night was, we’re almost there.
2. The polls were even worse than four years ago. They nailed a couple of states (Georgia and Arizona most notably) but were off by at least five points nationally. Trump may really have broken them.
3. Trump is the prohibitive favorite for the 2024 Republican nomination unless he is dead or in prison by then.
4. McConnell is going to be a huge dick. I really hope that at least Susan Collins ends up losing when it’s all counted.
5. Arizona left of Nevada and Georgia left of Florida is something.
6. To quote a great (the greatest?) Berkeley band, “Omaha, somewhere in Middle America…oh yeah.” Nice to catch a break for once from this ridiculous system.
And once again winning the popular vote by ~3M counts for nothing.
Probably more like 4M.
Already passed this and headed for 5M.
Revising and extending after the caffeine kicked in:
2. The national polls actually came pretty close to hitting Biden’s number, just like they did last time with Hillary. It’s just that “undecided” actually meant “Trump” again.
6. Fine. Green Day. Whatever. I said what I said.
You love lookout! you looooooooovvvvvvvvvvveeeeee lookout!
I was going chime in on behalf of Op Ivy
I would add the latino vote in south texas is concerning. I don’t care about fla
not to say that white men aren’t the problem. I would say white men #1 and men in general are 2
Since I’m sure Republicans are going to be out crowing about their gains with Latino voters, how about Puerto Rico statehood now, Mitch? The island appears to have voted for it yesterday.
Yeah the thing about that is that Puerto Rico wouldn’t be a guaranteed Democratic state AT ALL–unless it is only granted statehood by Democrats over the objections of Republicans. It is so very much in their interest to help give it statehood.
Theory: It’s just a manifestation of the national urban+suburban vs. exurban+rural divide that Trump has made more extreme. Not all that surprising that small town Latinos would be trending away from Democrats just like white people in similarly undense places (though from a more Democratic starting point).
4. Collins won. FK.
1. So it seems to be down to Michigan plus Nevada to clinch. Nevada has counted all the in-person votes so what’s left is the mail-in which should tilt to Biden. However, I think “mail-in” includes ballots which were mailed out and then returned by hand to polling places, which might go back toward Trump a little bit. Anyway, Clark County has a lot of mailed ballots yet to count which looks like a double advantage for Biden.
Here’s what 538 just said in its Nevada update:
Biden leads here by only 7,647 votes, and an estimated 14 percent of the vote is still uncounted. However, those votes will all be either late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots, which should lean Democratic. We won’t be getting another update here until noon Eastern on Thursday.
Washoe County had indicated they were going to update later today (unclear whether that’s still the plan though). They are pretty close to 50/50 D/R. Biden led by 9774 votes there at last report. If he increases that, it strongly suggests that the remaining votes will go his way, especially if Clark County has a proportionate share of the uncounted ballots.
A race now between Nevada and Pennsylvania to put Biden over the top.
Well he’d better win one of those or we’re calling to the bullpen for Blake Treinen to get the save.
This was the last update before Michigan was called.
Apparently nothing more coming from Nevada today.
That is no big deal, time is meaningless in Nevada. One trip to Las Vegas, I bought the same paper twice in one day*
*My roommate at the time told me this joke around 4 AM on fremont street in the mid 90s. I laughed and knew it was a joke from some old record we used to listen to, but I can’t for the life of me remember the origin. Might be Sal Butera or Louis Prima even
sam butera.
Nice of you to remember a .227/.302/.295 journeyman backup catcher though.
That the joke was told on Fremont Street is perfect.
They’re counting yesterday’s drop-offs and yesterday’s and today’s ballots received in the mail, and then provisionals. I don’t quite get why we don’t give an update tonight. Why do we want the rest of the country glaring at us and impatiently tapping their feet? If you want to go conspiracy, the Secretary of State is the only statewide elected official from the GOP; maybe Trump’s people asked her to run a Four Corners while they prepare their legal chicanery?
Here is her explanation of what’s going on, which includes:
or…”it’s show biz and Pennsylvania already said we have till friday to scoop them.”
Hopefully Georgia will moot them out
We have new COVID-19 restrictions here in and around Stuttgart. Since Monday, most sports activities indoors were banned. Tennis got a pass, but only with two people on the court (I can’t coach two kids who are siblings, for example). Today, they changed that to two people per tennis hall (ours has four courts). Meanwhile Stiftskirche (downtown church in Stuttgart), with area of about two tennis courts can hold masses for upto 140 people, singing included. If I ever here another fucking word about religious discrimination…
wait till you come back to SF and see all the cars parked all over the street on sunday
FSU, Davila losing is good, right?
Yes, unless you think that Palestinian rights are the most important issue in Berkeley. Or I supposed unless you’re a fan of the comedic value of watching someone attend Council meetings with zero preparation, and seemingly stoned.
Taplin is comparably progressive but to all appearances is not clueless. His lawn sign is the first I have ever put in my yard in Berkeley.
What I look for in local candidates is nuanced views on Armenia and Palestine
Um, does her response remind you of anyone else?
“It appears, cheating, corruption and collusion, dark money, lies, sabotage, and stealing are acceptable in the COB races, SADLY. Progressive FACADE wins.. DOMINATION and control succeeds… It ain’t over til it’s over.”
no. there is a concession in there that it may be over
Well, congrats on your city council rep upgrade, upgrade.
They are Brooks Brothers Rioting again, of course.
Stopping counts of ballots received before or on election day (and that the R’s themselves prevented from being counted early) has to be too much even for the hackiest partisan judges.
I think that’s right, though I no longer trust my instincts very much about the limits republicans will go to for power. It also helps that in Michigan, where they are currently banging on the doors, Biden is already ahead (and has just been called the winner by the AP).
But, of course, it’s so much more shabby and downscale this time. In 2000 it was well-dressed herbs in button-down shirts, shouting oddly specific slogans about the minutiae of ballot tabulation. In 2020 it’s an unhinged wacko in a BBQ BEER FREEDOM t-shirt who starts out by screaming about the Biden Crime Family stealing the election and the media is covering it up and can’t hold himself together so he ends up screaming that Joe Biden is covering up the election before wandering off after no jackbooted thugs appeared to take him away.
Why doesn’t he stop?
He and trump are peas in a pod, absolutely no situational awareness
But the voters love it, maybe the key to progressives winning is outright racism comically convoluted fraud and incompetence.
It’s morbidly funny that they are “declaring victory” in the state while also acknowledging that only 3/4 of the vote has been counted.
I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Trumpism over the last 5 years, as we all have.
One common thought from people like us is that, wow, if Trump can get that many votes, just think what someone with the same policies but not as obviously stupid, crazy, mendacious and personally corrupt could do.
After yesterday, I’m finally coming around to the point of view that the crazy aspects attract about as many people as they repel. And while that’s depressing in and of itself, at least it means that President Tom Cotton is not inevitable.
It’s really hard to disaggregate, but there is clearly a substantial segment of his voters for whom the worst parts of his personality are features not bugs because they (a) drive people they don’t like (us) crazy, (b) signal that he isn’t like “politicians”, (c) allow them to pick and choose the things he says that they like and ignore the things he doesn’t like as just “Trump being Trump,” and (d) keep them from getting bored. All that plus the “TV business guy” brand he still coasts on will be hard to replicate, fortunately.
Yeah, this is really important to remember. They like him because he is as stupid as they are. He is the kind of person who heard “Why don’t they make the whole plane out of the black box” and thought, “YEAH, WHY DON’T THEY DO THAT” and so are they.
Soccer-knowers: Should I be excited? I’d like to be excited.
I think so. It’s an unusually talented group of players for us, a lot of them now playing for very big teams in Europe (Barcelona, Bayern, Juventus, Chelsea, Dortmund, Manchester City etc.). They are very young, though, and the best of them (Christian Pulisic) is always injured.
Sounds like he’s a True Athletic.
They are currently dominating a pretty bad Wales side. Unfortunately they literally do not have a center forward.
They showed some real flashes of brilliance today in kicking the crap out of a bad Panama side. A little sketchy at the back but soooo much young midfield and attacking talent.
Great to hear and thanks for the updates. Hopefully we qualify this time
CNN just projected Biden to win Michigan. Go Blue!
While generally I’m of the belief that we should not lower ourselves to their level, Biden should have just preemptively declared victory last night before Trump did.
I don’t agree, since Trump’s playbook is to accuse Dems of offenses that he himself is guilty of (voter fraud, lying, corruption, senility, etc.). I have seen that strategy variously attributed to Lenin or Goebbels. In any case, no need to fuel the GOP’s self-righteous overmuch protesteth-ing (Shakespeare!)
Why not both?
This is hilarious. I assumed also not true (song only mentions CA AZ WA PA and GA), but for a Democrat it checks out at least back to 1948!
1936, 1940, 1944: FDR
(Presidential Elections for $200, please, Alex: Of those five states, this one voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932.). (Question here)
Also 1972 Nixon and 1984 Reagan.
hold the phone
Federal law enforcement vote counters. Totally normal stuff
Fox hasn’t taken back their Arizona call yet, but it sure is looking tighter all the time.
My collar sure feels tighter. From the chatter I’d still bet Biden over Trump to take AZ, but 4-5 states with razor thin margins and various challenges is close to my worst fear. I’m a lot less excited by all the ways to reach 270 if an 0-fer closes them all.
That said I’m also buoyed by those who think PA will end up Biden relatively comfortably.
CNN was on in the produce market corner store I went to a minute ago, and the gentleman explaining how math works to people seemed pretty convinced by the 80% of the outstanding county was breaking biden
These are coming from the blog on Adelson News.
Maybe make backup plans if you Old Blues were thinking about Tightwad Hill Saturday.
That plus this.
Have you noticed that Trump crowd is only capable of “one-two-three” chants?
don’t confuse them with your counting
“one-two-many”
An oral history of the greatest Simpsons episode ever. There are other fantastic episodes of course…Last Exit to Springfield, Brother from the Same Planet, Homer the Great…but Marge versus the Monorail is just perfect.
i waste so much time on any oral histry.
This needed to be done while we still had Leonard Nimoy!
Probably my fave episode too…tied with Cape Feare maybe.
i’ve been thinking about that one.
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/02/930409468/saved-by-the-whale-dutch-train-runs-off-elevated-tracks-is-caught-by-statues-tai
There is an amazingly deep field in the Breeders Cup Classic Saturday. Free DRF past performances here. Burying my nose in a racing form might be just the distraction I need.
A horse just won the turf mile at 75-1. Trophy inexplicably presented by Walker Bueller.
Lexington native.
I hadn’t heard about the recent controversy around Bob Baffert. The announcers are quite the bunch of apologists.
It’s not even that recent, several months old, not exactly a business that holds its own accountable.
I appear to have picked the wrong Baffert horse again.
$3 exacta 8,10/4,8,10. And I’m alive with a pick-3 if Max Security gets it done. Getting 5-1 on a horse with 10/13 career wins is nice.
Just cancel the damn season already.
The Reno Golden Bears?
Student? athlete?
I’m not a fan of the Berkeley Health Officer, but come on, in a city of 125K an outbreak at Cal could push the city to the next tier and shut down a bunch of fragile reopening local businesses and jobs.
The Berkeley Health Officer has her ban hammer out, shut down Golden Gate Fields right before first post today.
If we’re going to forge ahead with Pac-12 football I’m thinking Cal will set up shop at UC Davis, or possibly Sacramento State if better facilities outweigh UC vs. CSU. Those schools wouldn’t have Pac-12 quality facilities but they do have football facilities and the Big Sky Conference isn’t playing football this fall, holding off until a planned abbreviated schedule in February-April.
Yikes.
This is almost as fun as watching updated election returns. FBS-level football now up to 10 postponements/cancellations out of 59 scheduled games this weekend (17%), including 2/6 of the Pac-12 games (also Arizona-Utah due to multiple positive tests on the Utes), with much of Friday still to go.
BREAKING:
The Sonny Gray trade could start to pay off c. 2025.
Apparently it’s this guy. When I followed links from MLB Trade Rumors to Fangraphs I ended up on some guy who was in the Reds’ system in 2006.
Jesus Christ, Alabama, at least give us someone with a brain like Saban if we have to have Senator Ball Coach.
Chronic head trauma isn’t just for players.
I’m so proud that he used to coach for University of Cincinnati
War Eagle
He also thinks the 3 branches of government are the President, the House, and the Senate.
I agree that socialism has to go.
Privatize the NCAA
It looks like GA might end up being within about 1000 votes.
AZ has a lot more left, so harder to be sure, but also looking pretty close to a dead tie.
It still looks like Biden will finish with a sizeable lead in PA, but that one is also not close to being finished, and he is still behind officially.
Surprised AP hasn’t retracted their AZ call yet. Looks like a sure recount at least, same obviously with Georgia. Nevada seems solid for Joe. Come on, PA. Enough credible folk seem sure it’ll come around, so I believe it, but I sure will feel better when the count says so too.
Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett are sharing a bottle of champagne tonight.
He’s doing keg stands; she’s self-flagellating.
This is getting so stupid.
Philly police investigating a plot to attack the Convention Center.
How do we set up a pool on how far it goes before the rest of the Republican leadership disavows him? Christie (almost) broke with today’s farcical speech.
Literally the last thing I would bet on is that the GOP will discover a moral foundation.
Just as Biden overtook Trump there, Stuttgart radio station played Georgia on my mind.
Never in doubt
Biden, who won the country by more than 3 points, wins the same number of electoral votes as 2016 Trump, who lost the country by almost 3 points.
Nice time to dump embarrassing news I guess.
OMG
Has Trump ever conceded defeat or even apologized for anything? His whole approach to business has been to litigate debts rather than paying them. And he can’t even grasp the concept of doing something in service of a greater good than his own interests. Ratcheting up the divisiveness rather than healing and moving forward is the Trump brand, and I don’t expect that to change ever, even a few years from now when his assets are liquidated to pay creditors, probably at ten cents on the dollar after more threats bluster and lawsuits.
Yeah – it could get really ugly between now and January.
But it’s more than his own interest. It is in his interest to not carry so much debt he has to be bankrupted. it’s in his interest not to litigate bad decisions.
It’s some pathological need to to be fighting.
Yeah. Also relevant to remember that immediately after winning last time, he claimed to have actually won the popular vote, the state of New Hampshire, etc. He needs to always be litigating something for reasons that pass understanding without a psychology degree.
There’s definitely a pathology at play, but there are plenty of people in business who take the never surrender approach. Every loss can be negotiated down, every debt can be restructured, be an unrelenting litigious asshole and many others will just give up because it’s too exhausting. I suspect Deutsche Bank will similarly cave in the end, just to be rid of this parasite.
I am glad the the PA margin is being made before any of the postmarked-but-late ballots are tabulated. That should be enough to avoid the worst SCOTUS scenarios.
This is why the Pennsylvania Secretary of State made the decision to segregate the late-arriving ballots. It definitively moots the bullshit claims.
OK, now that the election is over, it’s time to get Madam Vice President-Elect on the record: A’s or Giants?
didn’t she call the giants when she was caught in a dodgers hat during a debate prep?
I was thinking on my way to work this morning that from 1972 to 1992 an incumbent was always running.
I’m missing something here. An incumbent was also running in 1996, and if we’re counting 1988 then we also have to count 1968.
yes 1995, and damn 1988 is correct, I kinda missed that. If we count 68, we count 64 too
60 and 56 too. And 2000 and 2004.
So, every year there were Olympics?
This was the first US presidential election year without an Olympics since 1944.
this is less of a fun fact, but I’ll stand by 72-84
The US has still never had four straight two-term Presidents.
Blue bullets matter
Pairs well with all the predictable centrist takes I am seeing about how Biden needs to reach out to Trump voters.
And the beat goes on
How realistic is the scenario of dueling electors, or faithless ones? I think it’s a fair guess that Trump will not concede, right?
Not realistic. He’ll never concede but it doesn’t matter.
Good. DeSantis likes the idea, though
It could really only happen in a situation that Florida 2000: a single state that could flip the electoral college, with a margin small enough to come down to things you could really dispute (postmarks, signatures, spoiled ballots).
It looks like Biden will have a three state cushion, and of those Georgia might be the only one that close.
Plus, most of the Republican establishment has always seen Trump as a useful idiot at best, and the useful part of that seems to have reached its end. Someone like McConnell would probably prefer to be the leader in thwarting Biden’s agenda rather than put up with four more years of Trumps bullshit.
Many states have prohibitions on faithless electors. so it may not even apply in enough states to mean anything.
There has been a lot of talk of that every cycle. No more than a couple have happened since I was paying attention in 2000
My current read is that almost none of the Republican establishment actually wants Trump to remain president under these conditions (losing), but that some of them have career reasons to want to act like they are willing to burn it all down for him.
They have noticed how well Trump’s response to the George Floyd killing and the BLM protests played. Quite a few Republicans who may have been wavering on Trump based on COVID-19 came back based on the notion that if liberals take over the country we’ll have insane asylums like Portland all over the place. “Stand back and stand by”, that’s about the bravest statement a President could make, in that mindset. Keep supporting him now, and then remind your base in 2022 and 2024 that you did.
lol
To be fair, so should votes for donald duck
And poop emojis
128,000+ new COVID cases today in the US.
75 days until the inauguration.
I love the “trumo said SS has to take him out kicking and screaming”
1) he is already doing that
2) he will be nowhere near washington Jan 20
3) he is such a fucking coward there is no way he steps up to anyone
Vanity Fair has been writing anti-Trump fan fic for four years now. I don’t doubt that he has been saying some crazy shit, but not buying this one at all.
He’s going to live on a farm in upstate Yakutsk.
I am going to attack Yakutsk from Japan with 5.
Seems risky.
Dammit. Kamchatka was what I was trying to remember
I just wanted to write that I had actually been to Yakutsk, but I had it confused with Omsk and Irkutsk, which cannot be seen from Sarah Palin’s window.
Give it up, Sam.
Issued an order? Is there a question pending?
I can’t countenance social media manipulations of important election news, except when it’s hilarious.
Welcome to the Willard Hotel, the block and a half away white house from January 20, 2021 to May 1, 2021
oops, embed the tweet, ed
They Friday night dumped the chief of staff being infected while president-elect was speaking. It never stops with these people.
Guy made a smirking point of NOT wearing his mask when near the press corps, asshole.
Called while he’s on the golf course. Perfect.
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It’s kind of weird that it’s considered “official” when one of a handful of private news outlets decides to say it is.
I have been thinking about that. It’s not like the Sec o state of each state puts out a press release. It’s not “official” until its certified.
We have all know Penn is trending this way for a while now.
It’s so strange and meta, the outcomes were decided on Tuesday when polls closed, everything after is just accounting. There’s no finish line to cheer about.
Most Americans are sufficiently bad at math and civics that we really do need the networks to tell us when it’s over or people would be confused right up to the inauguration.
if it’s not reality television it’s not reality.
This ain’t really your life
Ain’t really your life
Ain’t really ain’t nothing but a reality show
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That would be cool, but it does not align with my expectations for his politics
Arizona is changing fast. Maybe Shooty talked some sense into him.
This feels so FKing good.
Chillwell’s hair is making me uncomfortable
The Cubs end their drought and win the World Series and Trump is elected.
Liverpool end their drought and win the Premier League and Biden is elected.
Just sayin’.
They must be crushing it today
it was funnier in the first half
Biden needs to bring executive orders to the swearing in and sign them all before his speech
This is true, also add bring some blank order templates with lines to fill in all the more outrageous shit Trump will do before 1/20/21.
Have harris call out each one like a good hype person
This just might be the high-point of the whole slapstick
Special on fertilizer today.
lawn order is clever.
ASVD
i can’t take credit! it was in the comments.
their merch on the website has “Make America Rake Again” and “lawn and order” above and below their logo on sticker.
Their online reviews have gone berserk.
How the Rudi have fallen.
The final sparkle on the whole turd was that this was their crack legal team.
Heading to Election Day I feared armed partisans at polls, contrived police/Nat Guard actions, GRU troll farms, hidden election software malware… If I’d known Rudy Giuliani was the master evil schemer I would have slept a LOT better.
this one’s for the nerds.
Captain Pike!!!!
Hilarious local-angle reporting from the Queens Daily Eagle … “first major-party candidate from Queens to twice lose the popular vote.”
While it never closed, the safeway on potrero and 16th (former home of seals stadium) was boarded up today when I went there.
What is this impulse?
I like AOC a lot, and I think the Democratic Party needs people like her in prominent roles, but doing a big look-at-me media tour about how sad it was to be treated like a freshman member of congress and basically threatening to quit politics unless she gets more respect while people are celebrating deposing Trump is just tone deaf.
Yep, stupid in that particular way strident young folks can be. For the Democratic left this is the time for strategy. Use that political capital to achieve actual policy wins, not heart clicks.
Especially with two senate seats still (nominally) in play.
Though to be fair, she didn’t start it, and the centrists need the left as much as vice versa.
I am fine with Nancy saying shut up. I am fine with ocasio cortez talking. the republicans are always going to say NANCY!!! AOC!!!!!!!!!!!!! HILLARY!!!!!!!!!! CARTER!!!!!!!!!!!!
I like the AOC message out.
I’m fine with her talking, but she picked a terrible weekend to do it. I’m also just not all that interested in her already feeling burnt out on politics because she isn’t running the caucus yet. I’d rather focus on people from her class like Katie Porter and Lauren Underwood and Ayanna Pressley who are more focused on doing the work.
yes, those three are more impressive. i hope underwood holds on.
Yeah, this Abby Spanberger person can also feel free to shut up.
Yeah, some left-center sniping is inevitable, but I don’t understand why she would expect to cruise to victory in a tough seat in her first re-elect. I think it was mostly just frayed nerves the day after a scary election night.
:(
Living life as Alex Trebek seemed just about perfect, being a nice guy and doing exactly what you want every day.
I had my audition last week, and the producers said he was doing great. Apparently he taped episodes as recently as October 29. So the end must have come quickly, which I imagine was something of a mercy.
2020 still had some kicks in the balls left.
RIP Alex Trebek.
The universe is healing
Bills!
I thought this Russell Wilson guy was supposed to be good.
7:2 with +9 points differential. Clutch!
Hey Siri: Show me a superspreader event
I guess Biden is going to have to sue this woman to get the keys to the transition offices.
Nice long appreciation for the work of Maggie Haberman over the last four years.
ugh. mags. we were hot at the beginning but her sources-saving equivocation got to me. i had to end it.
so i went poly and started seeing emily, sam, and ashley.
Drew Magary, also not a fan.
yep. that’s it right there.
—
different line of inquiry this article reminded me of, the mistake the 1619 project made was comparing 1619 to 1776. what it should have done is compare 1619 to 1620, the year the mayflower landed.
wait. if nice long appreciation wasn’t figurative, sorry! mah bad.
Rham Emanuel being anywhere close to a policy influencing position is a failure.