That May thread was clearly cursed. Let’s try a new one. Six civil rights and democracy runs please.
June Thread Mojo 243
243 thoughts on “June Thread Mojo”
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That May thread was clearly cursed. Let’s try a new one. Six civil rights and democracy runs please.
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I am concerned about trusting our closer with the civil rights and democracy lead.
My closer:
O Closer! my Closer! our fearful ninth is done,
The team has weather’d every hit, the prize we sought is won,
The locker is near, the drums I hear, the people all exulting,
While follow eyes the steady field, the catcher grim and daring;
But O heart! heart! heart!
O the drops of green and gold,
Where on the mound my Closer lies,
Fallen dead and cold.
I teared up a little..not gonna lie.
So what’s the deal on bringing military forces into DC given that it isn’t a state?
Not sure what the legal answer is here, but the regime appears to be treating the District like occupied territory.
Aaaand lets throw the DEA into the mix.
Now to season with some prison guards from Texas….
Oh
You guys want to meet my newest client?
“Dear sir,
Thank you for representing me in my case. I have heard good things about you from your peers and I appreciate your needed help in this possibly life threatening matter.”
He has a lot to say.
He sure does. If we ever have a tailgate, you will hear his defense to a DUI
Trying to decide which corporate BLM statement is funnier, the 23andMe one saying the company is “based on the foundation…that we are genetically 99.5% the same” but also that “I am ashamed to say I do not have a single black employee who is at Director level or above” or the Grindr one slipping in that “we have decided to remove the ethnicity filter from our next release.”
Probably still the NextDoor one, actually….
Next door for sure
Yeah….
This is pretty funny too.
LoL
yeah, she had the bible in that white handbag.
They looted the bible from the church.
makes sense, he would walk 10,000 miles to chase that tail
Sounds like Operation Photo went over really well and they are all really proud of their actions.
guy can’t make up his mind.
now he’s *comparing* himself to an antifa.
Well so far today he’s lost Esper, Ben Sasse, and Pat Robertson.
Can you imagine three people walkin’ in, singin’ a bar of “Posse Comitatus” and walkin’ out? They may think it’s an Organization!
I call B.S. There is no way Pat Robertson is still alive.
But James Mattis is!
Um….
Ooooh … there’s a trick question in Trump’s Amerikkka: “Are you for or against fascism?”
Tom Cotton knows his answer, and the New York Times is happy to broadcast it for him.
The reasonable Republicans of Arkansas like Bed need to speak out against this.
Rs like this guy are why:
1. I feel completely disenfranchised – I rarely find any candidate from any party that I can stand or even put up with.
2. The party of Lincoln is on its way out.
Wow
How embarrassing can this episode get?
In the video clip the reporter says “Historically there has been a disconnect between what investors focus on and what happens across the rest of the country” and those numbers are used to illustrate the point. The reporter emphasizes the word “disconnect” and while the graphic looks terrible out of the context of the audio, the suggestion that it implies that these events are good for stock investors is pretty misleading.
The graphic doesn’t imply causality at all. It’s just horribly insensitive to the moment.
And/or deliberately sensitive.
you know who else matches up with big gains in the market?
MLB Owners Say They Could Lose $4 Billion Even If Games Are Played. Does That Math Add Up?
Money graf:
Sounds about right.
Did I miss an announcement, or is Fisher the only owner who is stiffing his minor leaguers?
Fisher, after realizing that no one followed him out into this manure pasture….”HEY, WHA’ HAPPENED?”
did you see space force?
Fed willard is in it
Oh, poor Lisa Murkowski and her struggles. Fucking enabler.
Is this the royal we, or what exactly is happening in her brain here?
Hey, don’t be mean to her, she’s thinking about pondering whether to deeply consider maybe not supporting Trump, and any criticism might push her the other way.
Well, Trump just went nuclear on her on Twitter, so, we’ll see whether you are right.
Isn’t she basically admitting that they’ve been dishonest and cowardly up to this point?
No one can be this stupid. This has to be a Fred Willard bit from beyond the grave.
Ed’s new client observes that underneath that tweet referencing John Lennon, the top suggested person to follow is Stephen King.
on the phone with him now!
He hasn’t seen this
Can’t pay your employees, can’t pay your rent. Sell the team, asswipe.
At this point, sure, why not.
Just when you think he can’t get any dumber, crueler, more self-absorbed … “This is a great day” for George Floyd.
The inevitable layoffs/pay cuts at The Athletic.
So they won’t be driving all local newspapers out of business, then?
short for… lady gag order?
Damn, there’s a gay internet? I bet it’s way better than this one.
And how much does Lindsey Graham pay to have it explode over him?
The Lindsey is gay rumors have been rampant for years, largely because it “feels” believable. But in all this time no scorned lover or rival has ever dropped dime on him. No blackmail attempts? No vengeful politician, no enraged partisan? Out of the many many times Graham has said outrageous things which might have been the last straw
Also, how strange is South Carolina to have both a black and a gay conservative Republican senator?
you didn’t mention extortion.
i mean, i always thought it was weird how he went 100% toward trump after that golf game.
Fisher, Goodell….any other sports oligarchs want to call for a do-over on an embarrassing position this afternoon?
Would be nice if MLB owners would do a my bad on this and start moving towards a workable proposal.
As bad as the imperious oligarchs who comprise baseball ownership are, no sports league anywhere holds a candle to the NFL in shamelessly sucking up to power. They’ve just never had to treat their employees as powerful before.
via monkeyball on twitter:
Did he claim Mar-A-Lago as his address?
This guy botches like 95% of the appearances that even a W-level president could sleep walk through. It’s uncanny.
All part of the reign of terroir
Game 6 of the 1993 series is re-running. I’m reminded that Toronto had a LOT of Black and Latino stars, Rickey and Joe Carter and Stew and Alfredo G. and Tony Fernandez and R. Alomar. The Phillies look like…well, like the guys who beat the NPR reporter with bats in Philly this week.
Without looking up the roster, Dykstra, Kruk, Mitch Williams…yeah that checks out.
ha! fisher made it onto le show’s apologies of the week.
OK Mitt. You win. I love you.
Good for him
Luckily this only resulted in an arrest for “resisting the police” (and a potential civil rights lawsuit against Alameda) and not another senseless death by cop.
Reminds me of the emo phillips joke “there was a black out in alameda. they police made him go away”
we’ve all heard those stories about in the ole days and raising the bridges at night, right?
Is that Cleveland game the Rosales non-homer??
The eavesdropping thing sounds pretty weak. They interviewed Angel and then he didn’t hang up before they interviewed his crewmate. They should have a had a separate dial in for the other ump or a way to check that Angel had disconnected if they wanted the conversations to remain confidential.
Honestly in the last decade of A’s baseball, for me nothing came close to be as rage inducing than the missed call/blown instant replay review of the Rosales non homer. And there have been a lot of rage inducing moments.
Co-signed.
That blurb from Torre on how Hernandez still insists he was right about the call just confirms to me that the guy is an unredeemable, arrogant POS.
Double-ditto
Angel during his interview:
Yes. It looks like the quote continues
which was pretty much the excuse given at the time
RIP to a local great.
I got to go to the Gaylord Perry game because the neighbors had an extra ticket on an unbelievably shitty rainy day in July. That has to be on the list of the top 10 regular season games ever at the Coliseum. I’d have to think a long time about the full list but “Jason Giambi is THE MAN” and “Hamilton DROPS THE BALL. HE DROPPED THE BASE BALL.” would be a couple of the others.
44.582 on a Monday night in July and Finley still couldn’t wait to sell his players off.
Gaylord’s streak was a big factor in the attendance but it was mostly that it was one of Charlie’s half-price Monday night Family Nights, far and away his most successful promotion ever. Click over to the Tuesday game in that series and notice that a Catfish Hunter start drew 6,655.
Charlie was a great pure baseball man but financially the only way he could make it was in that brief period when we had both a draft and no free agency. The minute Marvin Miller forced free agency on the owners, he was toast.
And he saw it coming too, whatever his other flaws, Finley knew when to cut and run on an investment. I hear a career in the insurance biz can do that for a fella.
Umm, as I recall the sales price when Walter Haas bought the franchise in 1980 was $8 million. The return on that investment over the subsequent 40 years is a lot better than you and I have done in our retirement accounts.
Charlie was one of the last small-time (financially) owners, along with Calvin Griffith in Minnesota. Mrs. Finley was smarter, she spent money to hire a better divorce lawyer than he did, and she cleaned him out. He didn’t have much chance anyway with the advent of free agency, but the divorce was The. End.
Speaking of ol’ Calvin…
There is a current effort (not the first) to get University of Cincinnati to rename Marge Schott Stadium
there was a question in trivia last night about her saying in an interview that hitler was good at first, but I just remembered she called eric davis and someone else her million dollar n words
yeeepppp
Board of Trustees voted to rename the UC baseball stadium
I’ve gotta laugh at a 10-inning game lasting only 2:34.
Both pitchers going the distance and a different pitcher scoring the winning run is fun too.
I also want to note Joe Brinkman on the umpiring crew. That guy must have been around forever.
Yeah – 35 years. I had forgotten he was the guy who had to hold back George Brett in the Pine Tar game.
Those same four umpires had worked 10-Cent Beer Night in Cleveland a few weeks earlier.
Ed Crosby and Tom Grieve both played that night. Also, gotta love this quote from Tim Russert.
Berkeley High grad!
Cease and desist from making me LOL this hard.
To be fair, the poll results would have been more favorable if it had excluded respondents living in states with active GOP voter suppression efforts.
That’s the art of polling, yeah? Modeling who’s vote will be suppressed?
this is tidy.
They do this shit on purpose though. The point is not, as CNN’s response says, “to muzzle speech it does not want voters to read or hear”; it is to provoke such a response, and then have more ammo to support their claim that CNN is biased against them.
Maybe, but I also think (a) they are genuinely panicking that if they look dead in the water poll-wise, some of their campaign donations will dry up, which will leave less money to steal and (b) Trump is a big baby who likes having people lash out for him when he feels hurt. Unfortunately for them, the Streisand Effect is real.
CNN’s General Counsel is called Vigilante?!
I hate to think what the name of the fellow/lady for Fox News must be.
I get a bit of amusement out of going to CNN.com and then immediately thereafter going to FoxNews.com. They are representing themselves as objective presenters of the news but it’s like they’re reporting from two different planets.
Ratto is absolutely right.
A’s Ken Phelps. Very nice.
Brian Holman being the answer if that’s a clue to a question. I was thinking about that the other day when BANG re-ran their game story from the Shannon Stewart/Curt Schilling game.
Boning up on that subject:
Armando Gallaraga: Jason Donald
Yusmeiro Petit: (I think you knew this but) Eric Chavez
I don’t remember Chavy as a DBack at all.
Neither do I. And I’m in for the QuadA quiz again.
have we thought of a better name yet?
the swingin’ shelter-in-pl-A’s
I like it
Trump’s first CoronaRally will be on Juneteenth, in Tulsa of all places. He may not understand what an inflammatory choice that is, but someone on his team is absolutely trying to send an ugly message.
No points for predicting that he will bring this guy on stage.
We, meaning you and the owners?
At this point I do not believe they can put together a 2020 season that I can take seriously.
Some half-assed “regular season” that sets up seeding for a hideously bloated postseason to grab the television money, that’s about how it’s going to end up.
My attention will be scant. It has now been 3 months since my last Cactus League game; I figure it’s only about 8 more months until pitchers and catchers report in 2021, barring some really really bad news. I think I’ll mostly erase 2020 from my memory and start with a fresh, positive attitude next February.
Is always talking on the phone with an “aunt” you have never actually met in person. Aunt TIFA????
“Transition to Greatness” may be the worst political slogan I have ever encountered.
Sounds like something Mark Davis must have submitted in an online contest.
Wait, they found a worse one.
i have faith.
there’s still time for them to find “eat cake.”
Unemployment was cake?
they cut some jobs and we found out.
while i have you: orange county!
If they kill my parents, I am knocking down their house and building an 8 story low income housing apartment
Yay!
…oh
Seems like by the time the owners get to a proposal the players would accept, there will be big enough case spikes in enough places that they won’t be able to start things up anyway.
Yeah reading about this newly leaked CDC data left little doubt about badly the US has screwed this up.
Through June 12:
Douglas County:
Population: 48,905 (7/1/2019 estimate)
Total cases: 39 (0.08%) — 7 active (0 hospitalized), 32 have recovered, 0 deaths
For the four counties covered by CCHHS:
Population: 166,454
Total cases: 246 (0.14%) — 61 active (8 hospitalized), 178 have recovered, 7 deaths
It’s a big deal somewhere, apparently, but we’re still waiting.
Build a wall to keep out those pesky CA tourists and you’ll be just fine.
Believe me, some of our right-wingers think a wall on the CA/NV border would be a lot more useful than Trump’s wall on the US/Mexico border.
Pesky CA tourists you say. (El Dorado County is CA but the virus doesn’t care about a line on a map.)
I have an appointment in about an hour at the community college to have some possibly trained kid ram a cotton swab up my nose, through my eyeball and into my brain, or something like that. I don’t think there’s any chance I actually have the virus, but it’s a free test, next scheduled trip to Hawaii is just after Thanksgiving and I’ll probably have to show a clean test result upon landing over there, so I want an idea of what to expect from the test and the time frame for the results.
Yeah the whole re-surge is all about three day holiday weekends and partiers in close quarters. And then their family members. The entire Southeast US is so infected now that contact tracing is pointless. Fucking SEC.
We cancelled August Hawaii trip at the 60 day VRBO refund deadline. Too much risk it could fall apart. Ironically, now looking for Tahoe campsite cancellations.
Coming to you live from the Carson City High School Athletic Complex, it’s the entire Major League Baseball season!
he does the weather but not the hair, because for him the forecast is always great hair day.
Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own
So basically what they do in Florida is they count each person tested positive as one person, no matter how often they were tested positive (as well they should). However, they count multiple negative tests of the same person as different people in order to inflate the base and have lower percentages.
Quite a comedown from “100% chance of a season” 5 days ago.
It sure seems to me like the owners don’t actually want to pay for a season unless they can break the union in the process.
Based on your post below, sure seems like it.
Howard Terminal has always been a thin thread anyway. This is quite a confluence of factors, and my feeling is that we’re watching the death of baseball in Oakland, as the 1994-1995 work stoppage killed it off in Montreal.
That seems awfully dire, it’s not like other cities are now more emboldened to snatch a team than they were before. And Montreal was far more disaffected and unprofitable before MLB’s self-inflicted wound. Not comparable.
Also, who would have thought 10 years ago that the Death of Baseball in Oakland wouldn’t even crack my top 10 list of things that suck?
Let’s see … Trump, pandemic, killer cops, Profar …
For the yikes file.
Barry has a negative report about bonds
Seems like it may be time to start describing this as a “lockout.”
The Court’s opinion is like a pirate ship. But not a cool pirate ship. A pirate ship that pretends to be Scalia.
Gotta fire all the Yankees fans, per Gorsuch’s opinion for the majority. This just gets better and better.
So, you can’t fire Sotomayor without firing Alito?
We’ve all seen it, but on the 50 year anniversary it deserves another look.
Trevor Bauer is…spot on?
Bauer and bregman are polar opposites. I hate half of their personality and love the other.
for the shelter in place, my court set up goto meeting sowe can conduct court business. Today we restarted “regular court” but with social distancing and stuff. that included allowing lawyers to appear in court by goto meeting.
My judge this morning said we had to start using the video option when our cases were being discussed. Needless to say the blue of my cut offs clashed with the blue buttondown that was closest too me.
The yellow bowtie goes with anything.
Do you have juries? What happens to them?
august is our target. The supreme court of CA declared an emergency extending speedy trial deadlines through july.
Jury panels are a minimum of 60 people coming in sitting shoulder to shoulder waiting to be put in the jury box for voir dire. that can’t happen even in august.
My assumption is (i declined to be on the committee to figure jury service out) is hardships sorted out before hand, and questionnaires will be sent out first. then about 30 people willbe brought in to be qualified for the jury.
Its going to be a shit show
I was scheduled for Jury duty the Monday after shelter in place started, so I’m curious to see if I’ll be called right away when they resume in Alameda County. This doesn’t sound fun.
Me too! I was supposed to go to the courthouse in Dublin.
So, what with right-wing terrorists, one of them active military, having killed two Bay Area cops to try to spark a Civil War reboot, maybe law enforcement will start recognizing where the real threat to their safety comes from? Too much to hope for?
Damon was a good guy. This really sucked. I am so glad he hired private counsel.
Way too much to hope for. Same deal with gun control too.
It seems so obvious, and it’s been this way for at least 10 years now, premeditated attacks on cops are far more likely to come from rightist militia types than imagined antifa cells or criminal gangs.
Then, I’ve also never understood how any city cop anywhere can be an NRA 2nd amendment type, yet it’s still commonplace.
That’s the best they’re going to do. With three 10-team “leagues”, it’s 20 three-game series, two per week for 10 weeks. A home-and-home with eight of the other nine teams (=48 games), and two home-and-homes between “natural rivals” (=12 games). Season ends as scheduled on Sept. 27. Eliminate the extra off days in the postseason and even with a 16-team postseason, 5-game series in the first two rounds and then 7-game semifinals and World Series can still be done by the end of October.
Because 60/162 at pro-rated salary is the maximum guarantee they were willing to give.
Given the positive COVID tests of Cowboys and Texans players reported this week I am growing more skeptical of MLB’s plans, even if they get player-owner agreement. What happens if Altuve Bregmann and Verlander all test positive a week into the season? You know, other than the acknowledgment of karma.
I hope the A’s have a great “season” but there’s no way I can invest much interest in 60 games. I’ll watch some of it with casual interest but nowhere near the usual passion for every game, and if the whole thing implodes, blah.
I’ll watch if for no other reason than the last few weeks have shown me I dont want to watch anything else on TV at this time.
Several MLBers have reportedly tested positive as well. I remain skeptical as well.
Five Phillies, plus three staff members.
I’m not sure what the plans for spring training 2.0 are but if the idea is to get everyone down in Arizona again where COVID seems to be escalating, this could all get shut down again if/when players test positive a week into it.
Yeah, I’m with andeux and don’t see any way this is going to happen.
Is it possible to have 30 light hitting 2b?
I of course hope the John Bolton’s book does further damage to Trump’s reelection prospects. But first hand knowledge of multiple impeachable offenses would have been a lot more useful back in January. Man, fuck that warmonger and the mustache he rode in on.
Yeah, this. Especially fuck this business about “the Democrats should have impeached him for the stuff I refused to tell anyone about before my book came out.”
It sounds like censorship would be the best possible thing that could happen to this book. NYT Book Review
Tagline!
I like big fonts and I cannot lie.
bold extra wide is the technical term.
ICIP air-raid siren in Shotgun Blasts into the Face
Did you double on dog whistle?
i like the new distinction. republicans OR conservatives.
what’s ICIP? my first glance, i read ICYMI.
“In college I played…”
mb running gag.
riiiiiiiiight.
[scrambles for golf clap in-joke] [doesn’t remember it]
ASVD (Annika Sorenstam…). I too had forgotten ICIP, and when I looked it up one version is I Come In Peace.
i get a lot of the int’l conference on image processing.
Does anyone know Oakland’s rules on sidewalk repairs?
Am I liable as the home-owner? If (as I think) so, am I supposed to just fix it myself, or call the city to fix it and get billed, or what?
I haven’t had occasion to look up anything in the Official Baseball Rules this year so let me keep my skills sharp by trying this one:
1. Yes, this is the homeowner’s responsibility.
2. You’ll need to hire a contractor.
Man I miss MLB Rulebook Analysis FK.
While ptbnl endeavored to solve the mysteries of the origins of the universe, Soaker plowed through the Oakland Municipal Code to determine the obligations of various parties in regard to sidewalk repair.
I had better plans for today, but last night I noticed a pool of water on the kitchen floor. Upon getting down on hands and knees and exploring the area under the kitchen sink with a flashlight, considerable profanity was expelled. So I got to sit around for much of the day and eventually made a nice contribution to the Covid-19 impacted local economy.
In practice, subsection C (Unsafe Condition Becomes Known) is the key. If you haven’t been notified by the City, or by a neighbor in some formal way, or had an actual trip-and-fall incident, no one with the City will care.
It’s been reported to the city, and we have a new crazy neighbor who has hinted that they plan to trip.
What I don’t understand is what we actually do about it – can we just pull up the offending (root-lifted) slab so there isn’t a trip hazard?
Your only real question is whether you’re resolved to fix it. Now, as guard against litigiousness, or later if/when the City tells you to. After that take 2-3 bids and choose a contractor. You can’t possibly determine the cheap path to compliance without incurring more liability yourself.
Chapter 12.22 is more specific than what I posted above as to the property owner’s obligations and liability. It sounds like something that has to be addressed sooner or later. I’d probably put up a cone or caution sign, spray paint the hazard area and get about looking for a qualified contractor to get the work done. The language about assessment for cost of repair appears to apply to the situations where the property owner refuses to make the repair within a reasonable time after the notice.
For reference, here’s Chapter 22 of Division 7, Part 3 of the Streets and Highways Code as referred to in the Municipal Code, but the City code tells you what you need to know. I spent many hours poring through the Streets and Highways Code back in my title insurance days and I can’t say I miss that much.
Oooof … there’s a lot to digest in there.
If I read it right, 12.04.110 says I can’t do any work without either getting a permit or (since it’s a small area) waiting for notice from the SoS/DPW, and 12.04.020 says I have 3 days after receiving such notice to start the repairs.
In practice I’d think you will have up to 90 days, under 12.22.020(D).
I would wait until you get official notice from the City. One of the worst outcomes would be to try and be proactive, spend money on a fix, then get told you had to do it differently. This happens A LOT with municipal repairs.
You probably know this already, but you should also document every interaction with the neighbor with detailed notes. Each instance demonstrates his/her foreknowledge of the condition which could be helpful to a legal case down the line.
we put metal tube bollards in front of gas meters in the garage so I can park. poured concrete in 8′ pipe.
when PG&E was out to do something or other, like smart meters or something, one guy quipped, “these even look like they may be to code!”
The disagreement being about the three batter minimum rule, which Slusser despises.
Watched this discussion on race in baseball tonight. Good, not great (yes, there is a lot of Harold Reynolds being Harold Reynolds). But it was good to hear from some of the young African American voices, and getting Sharon Robinson to participate was a big plus. I hope there are follow-ups, and it would be great if they included some latinx players too.
@sslinger, not an IGer myself, but this could be interesting.
Thanks, I saw this too. Likewise, I don’t use IG but I’m going to see if it’s possible to watch this without signing up.
This is not looking good.
Dumbfucks apparently took down a statue of Ulysses Grant in Golden Gate Park. Absolute idiots.
Gambling game theory question for the FKhorus. A promo my horse betting platform has tomorrow will put $500 in the accounts of four random players 20 minutes before each of the 12 races on the Belmont card. It’s only valid for the next race, you have to bet it all, any winnings are yours but the initial $500 goes away.
I’m thinking the optimal bet is high probability, low reward. Like $500 on the favorite to Show (3rd or better) which might pay $550. As opposed, say, to a $4 trifecta box with 6 horses (120 possible combos) which could pay anywhere between $80 and $2,000. Any of you math-types bored enough to offer ideas? How much does the size of the field (6 horses versus 12 horses, say) influence the optimal strategy?
The card starts at 8:45 AM our time. The Belmont Stakes is at 2:40 PM. I think the fave Tiz The Law wins easy and will be betting a trifecta with him over Sole Volante and a few others
What you’re asking isn’t entirely a math question. Optimal depends on 1) what you’re trying to optimize, which depends on how risk-tolerant you are; and 2) how good your own handicapping is.
The simplest answer is to try to maximize expected value. That basically means just making the bet where you think the true odds are better than what you’re getting by the biggest amount. But if you’re not a better-than-average handicapper, all bets have negative expectation. That’s kind of obvious, and probably not the answer you’re looking for.
A more risk-averse strategy would be to try to maximize the expected value of the logarithm (as in the Kelly Criterion). For that, you would have to spread it across multiple bets, to make sure that you do not lose all of it. The absolute lowest-risk thing to do would be bet the whole field, in proportion to their odds, ensuring you walk away with around $420 ($500 minus the vig). That’s the right play if you’re risk averse and also don’t trust your handicapping, and so in practice would be unsatisfying to anyone who actually likes to play the horses.
What you suggest (betting on the favorite to show) might be optimal if your goal is to maximize the chances of walking away with at least the $500. (Still conservative, but slightly higher-risk and higher-reward.)
Psychologically, I would think some people would go to the other extreme: figure that they’re playing with house money, so bet on some high-risk high-reward bet and if (when) it loses, they’re no worse off than they were in the morning.
Anyway, this was probably not very helpful. You might just ask Primera who she thinks will win.
My main goal would be to turn the chance of money into actual money. I hadn’t considered betting the whole field proportionally to the odds. Might do that if it happens in a race I haven’t analyzed at all. But if it’s one I’ve looked at, you’re right that it’s more fun to take some risk/but some faith in my handicapping.
Primera has gone vegan and is reluctant to make horse picks anymore, alas. Damn woke culture taking away my profit potential.
I understood the deal to be that you only got to keep the winnings *above* the free $500.
Keep all the winnings, return the $500 seed capital.
So this is like you are getting freerolled in a poker tournament. Seems to me your play is to make a high risk/high reward bet (or bets) that you wouldn’t make with your own money. Upside you walk away with several grand, downside you break even.
If you take a risk-averse approach, maybe you can give yourself a highish chance of winning $100 or less, but when the risk of loss is zero either way, I’m going high variance.
Oh, I missed that part. Duh.
In that case, betting the whole field doesn’t make sense as it ensures a loss.
I’m thinking about this some more, but GM may be right.
OK, I hope I get it right this time.
Let’s consider a regular $500 parimutuel bet with a 1/n chance of winning.
That means (n-1) out of n times, you lose your $500.
If there were no takeout, then the 1/n time that you did win, the ticket would be worth 500*n, for a profit of 500*(n-1).
Overall the expected value of the bet would be 0 (no matter what n is).
But there is actually a 16% takeout. So when it wins the winning ticket actually is worth 420*n, for a profit of (420*n – 500).
Overall the expected value of the bet is -80 (again, no matter what n is):
1/n*[420*n – 500] + (n-1)/n * [-500] = -80
But in this setup, where the seed money is given and we keep the profit above that seed money, we are interested only in the expected value of the profit, without worrying about the loss:
This is
1/n*[420*n – 500] = 420 – 500/n
This increases as n increases. So if you are risk-tolerant and want to maximize expected value (and don’t think you have an edge in handicapping), you would bet on the longest shot on the board.
[I’m just considering regular bets here. Exotics can have even longer odds, but I think they also have larger takeouts, so the cap on the expected value is lower.]
But the increase in expected value also comes with a corresponding increase in variance, so considerations of risk tolerance still apply. If your goal is just to maximize the chance of walking away with some profit, then you would obviously do the opposite, and bet on the favorite.
Also note that while that function increases with n, it does so more slowly as n gets large. That would suggest that even if you are risk-tolerant, you might still prefer an intermediate strategy.
Can you address the variance by making a large number of small, high-risk bets (presumably exotics, to be able to fit enough of them in a single race)?
This is fascinating, thank you all. No opportunity so far through first 8 races.
As I ponder as a hypothetical I’m still inclined wager conservatively to maximize chance of some profit. However, if the $500 was actually put in front of me I can imagine impulsively going for the big score.
BTW Primera likes #1 Tap It To Win, turns out.
Barring receipt of 500 magic beans, my more modest ticket will be $5 exacta 8/2,9 and $1 tri 8/1,2,4,9/1,2,4,9. $22.
Should that be the 8 on top of your tri?
My $2 win bet is on #10 Pneumatic at 17:1
Fixed yes thanks. Man every other price on the board looks great if you see an angle you like. Tiz The Law just looks so much the best to me.
Looks like your 8/9 paid but probably not great odds.
$19.60 x 2.5 = $49. Nice.
Minus the trifecta still a nice win. Backing faves isn’t my preferred style but I’ll take it.
What I really like is to back a live longshot in a pace play. Also Nick Cave and Peaky Blinders. So I’ve got $5 on #4 Red Right Hand at 12-1 to go gate-to-wire to win the next race.
I still get mad about hamel
Nothing says Law and Order President like firing prosecutors.
That story is great: they fired Bharara and installed this guy Berman who was a Republican loyalist. But they also didn’t want him to have to go through confirmation hearings, so officially he was appointed “temporarily” (over two years ago) by the judges in that circuit.
Now he has ended up prosecuting Michael Cohen, Parnas and Fruman, and is looking into Giuliani and some banking stuff that will further embarrass Trump, so they want to get rid of him. But he refused to resign, and Barr can’t fire him because of the way he was appointed. (Trump maybe can, but in his typical mix of corrupt and incompetent, is claiming he is not involved.)
Tying the threads together, “Tiz the Law” seems like a bad name at this point in history.
Not the worst thing by a long shot, but how is it that trump supporters love his tagline and associate him with it, but he is too much of a coward to actually fire someone?
Because they are morons.
Apparently he has agreed to resign after all, after Barr pinkie-swore not to interfere in the ongoing investigations. That will work out great, I’m sure.
Setting up the outdoor stage for a big speech to the overflow crowd and then having to take it down because you only got an Early May Tuesday Night Coliseum Crowd to show up at all is phenomenal advance work.
Old adage in political campaigns is to never book a room you can’t fill.
I don’t understand if the kpop fan getting tickets is true, how did the campaign not know they were the same ip addresses?
Isn’t the database they are setting up the idea for allowing all people to get tickets? How were there not 20K in tulsa and environs that wanted to go?
Most of the people running the campaign are primarily focused on scamming as much money from it as they can before it is over or they get fired is my theory.
Well, someone’s getting fired tomorrow.
Miller dismissed the idea that Trump was dissatisfied with Parscale and mulling changes to his campaign strategy as “fake news.”
Miller, the guy who was fired during the transition for his strip club outings and his intra-campaign staff affair resulting in a baby, is apparently back in the Trump saddle. Neat.
And there it is
and the how of it.
bluechecks locked out on twtr, so he had to go to FB.
Off topic, I love these gifs, makes me think about how much better baseball is now