Well, some of them were day games.
The A’s have gone 3-5 in their last eight games, with a pythagorean record of 3.9-4.1. The A’s have scored 30 runs while their opponents have scored 31. But they weren’t alternating blowouts; the average margin of victory for the winning team in these games has been 1.1 runs. The only game that wasn’t decided by 1 run was won on a walk-off, bottom of the ninth homer. That’s a remarkable run of close games.
And, not only have the games been close, they’ve been exciting. The average number of super-exciting plate appearances (which I define as plate appearances with leverage index > 3) in each game has been 4.5, led by a whopping 9 in last Sunday’s 4-2 win over the Giants. The average high leverage index was an insane 6.2, and the single-most crucial plate appearance was Jemile Weeks’ game ending pop-out last Saturday with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in a one-run game (leverage index = 10.7!). And, you’ll recall, that was anything but a routine play.
Twice, the most crucial plate appearance resulted in the biggest change in Win Expectancy of the game – Gentry’s bases-clearing triple tonight and Belt’s game-tying double last Friday. The biggest play of each game changed the Win Expectancy by at least 20%, except in the case of the 1-0 win over Seattle on Monday where the biggest play of the game turned out to be Seth Smith’s game winning homer (+12.5% Win Expectancy because it happened so early in the game). The biggest play was, of course, Derek Norris’ walk-off shot last Sunday at +89.3%. Outside of that contest, the game ended with the winning run on base (in scoring position) in 4 (3) of the other seven games.
The games have been back and forth; the losing team in each of these games has had an average high Win Expectancy of 73%. That is, the losing team looked like a pretty good bet to to win at some point in each of these games. The highest Win Expectancy for a losing team was the A’s at 95% late last Friday before the A’s blew the lead in the ninth.
Exciting baseball, folks – which, when the team isn’t really any good, is all you can really ask for out of a team.
All I have to say is yes, these games are very entertaining but not enough of them have the desired outcome. That said, it’s hard not to sense that a corner is being turned in the right direction after 6 years of dogshit baseball. I can’t imagine how good Cespedes, for instance, will be after a season learning the league, and Norris exhibits more natural confidence in one AB then “that other catcher” has shown in 6 years of them.
Speaking of which, I would pay Dick Callahan $1000 if the next time Employee #8 came up at home in a crucial situation with guys on base, he announced him as follows:
“Now batting…
the catcher…
number eight…
INNING OVER!!!!”
Ya the team is playing entertaining ball, and competing pretty well with what’s supposed to be the best team in baseball. Yes, it’s better to win these games, but I like it that the team goes into every game with a real chance to win. The talent level isn’t great, and I still don’t see what Fuentes and Miller are doing on the team with de los Santos and Figueroa in AAA, but I suppose these things take time.
Live, from the East Bay, it’s Staturday! Woot!
Hunh. So it is.
I endorse this statement. MOAR STATURDAYS PLS!
Yes please.
Well, DFA can also ask for MOAR losses.
I like exciting baseball that results in losses.
isn’t the pythag .500 now?
How much higher a leverage index can you get? Does it go to 11?!?
I believe that is as high as it gets
It has been fun. And despite the frustrating nature of the record, you have to be ok with almost winning two games in texas when ross and AJ Griffin were pitching
I’m sure there are fans who find losing close games more painful than being blown out. But for me, if my team had the tying run or the winning run at the plate or on base….and if there wasn’t some nefarious umpiring or other evil circumstance such as the presence of Giants fans within 500 yards of me…. I don’t mind watching that game. We had a chance to win, and we didn’t or couldn’t make use of it, and life is like that.
I agree — these have been terribly entertaining games, in both senses of the adverb. It seems to me that the A’s can play with the elite teams when they are flawless (witness LA sweep), but at this payroll (Balfour)/level of development (Cespedes in LF) for the younger guys, the Oaksters can’t sustain “flawless” as often as we’d like. I also think the highly comp’d players get that way because of an extra gear that they don’t always have to use, but that’s there when it’s needed. The premium they command is in that gear.
I like the experiments with Cowgill, Norris, Hicks and now Carter. I would go even younger at this point — e.g., I would rather see who will develop among the young relievers (I vote for Pedro) than to ever again watch Balfour commit hara kiri on the mound, or Fuentes moulder in front of our eyes. I’d probably try to move Coco and also go with Taylor over Gomes, but I have to admit I’m enjoying watching Inge at 3B. MTC, YMMV.
Brian Fuentes’ c’reer lies a-mouldering in the grave…
Absolutely
Blow this horseshit team up.
Troll! Run away!
:)
I’m counting on Arlington gamblers to do this for us.
Heh heh heh.