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Ixnay on the inxjay 38

12 Jun 2009  |  monkeyball  |Game Thread

No score going to the 5th. Cust’s double was a thing of beauty — as was the Giants’ relay.

I’m not saying anything else.

38 thoughts on “Ixnay on the inxjay”

  1. monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:14 pm

    One very nice bunt, one beautiful bunt.

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  2. mikeA Jun 12,2009 8:14 pm

    Bunting with a runner on second and two outs is amazingly stupid.

    • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:18 pm || Up

      Sacrificing is, yes — but that was a beautiful bunt for a hit. It kept LHE from making an out.

      you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
      • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:20 pm || Up

        Duh. 2 outs. Duh.

        Anyway, not out = good.

        you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
      • mikeA Jun 12,2009 8:24 pm || Up

        No, it’s always wrong. It risks an out with virtually no chance of driving in the runner.

        • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:27 pm || Up

          Disagree. Well-executed bunt with the infielder back on a handle-able pitch, decreases chance of making an out.

          you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
        • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:29 pm || Up

          Objective of an individual batter isn’t to score runs, but to minimize outs

          you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
          • mikeA Jun 12,2009 8:37 pm || Up

            The objective of a batter is to maximize runs. With 2 outs and a runner on second the main objective is to score the runner on second. Bunting, even if he’d have a .500 average on an in-play run decreases the chance of scoring the runner on second. Getting to first with two outs doesn’t add much. It is not even a remotely close call.

            • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:43 pm || Up

              This is perilously close to the “don’t take borderline pitches” or “hit a grounder to the right side” argument

              you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
              • mikeA Jun 12,2009 8:57 pm || Up

                Math:
                Run Expectancy with a runner on second and two outs: .344 http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html
                Lets say a bunt will be successful 50% of the time (very generous) and score the run on an error 5% out of that 50%.
                1st and 3rd 2 outs is .538.

                So the half of the time it works the team gains ~.2 runs and the half the time he’s out the team loses .344 runs. And that’s with the very generous assumption of a .500 average (and a higher run environment than exists this year for this team against this pitcher. So: always stupid.

                • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 9:03 pm || Up

                  using that rationale, though, you can argue that he simply shouldn’t swing AT ALL

                  you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
                • mikeA Jun 12,2009 9:11 pm || Up

                  No, the .344 runs represents the average of what happens from that situation. Usually a 0, often a 1, occasionally more than one, which averages out in this case to .344. It’s actually “expected runs when the hitter swings away” because hitters always swing away in that situation until tonight.

                • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 9:22 pm || Up

                  But you have to parse out all the other scenarios as well — would you have been unhappy with a “normal” infield 1b, a short 1b to the of that didn’t score rajai, a bb, or a hbp? All of those factor into the 1r and 1+r (and 0r) scenarios in the avg r expect. An out ends the inning there and guarantees a 0r outcome. and that r exp avg is of ALL hitters — ocab has a 68-69% chance of ending the inning there by “swinging away” (ie, taking a normal approach).

                  you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
                • mikeA Jun 12,2009 9:36 pm || Up

                  A “normal” infield 1B is a good outcome, just like a bunt hit was a good outcome. I wouldn’t take a generic high chopper or squib for the same reason it’s a bad idea to try to bunt. Obviously I’d “take” a BB, but a BB-minded strategy is no good in that situation because it doesn’t help much and still risks an out.

                  The average would be a bit lower since it’s Cabrera, but not all that much lower because the key variable is scoring the runner on second, and Cabrera is not a bad bet to do that.
                  All of those things you listed factor in and the result is the .344 average/whatever it is for Cabrera. It’s complex to calculate, so the bunt scenario is just a guess, but the “real” number for the bunt scenario wouldn’t be worse than the .500 BA simplified estimate.

                  An out on the bunt attempt ends the inning there and guarantees a 0r outcome.

                • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 10:50 pm || Up

                  But it seems like you’re conceding that the bunt there is the option most likely to keep the inning going, right?

                  you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
                • mikeA Jun 12,2009 9:14 pm || Up

                  Two more intuitive things: bunting creates the situation where you need two hits to score the runner instead of one, which makes it less likely even if the first hit has a high likelihood of success. Second, the increase in likelihood of the bunter scoring it substantially cut into by the fact that the bunter is giving up any reasonable chance of getting beyond first.

                • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 10:49 pm || Up

                  But not every nonbunt hit there scores the runner (especially with O-Cab’s weak-ass hitfx profile)

                  you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
            • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:48 pm || Up

              Accept the charitable estimate, and that’s a .500 BABIP on that pitch, right?

              you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  3. monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:18 pm

    Darn

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  4. monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:24 pm

    Now there’s the slider to the lefty’s back foot

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  5. ArakSOT Jun 12,2009 8:27 pm

    both Leagues oughta be playing with the DH rule…

    There is always a score.
  6. monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:27 pm

    yikes. this inning unraveled quickly

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  7. monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:34 pm

    trailing sucks, but man is it fun watching lincecum pitch

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
    • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:37 pm || Up

      wow. 54:21 k:b

      you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  8. ArakSOT Jun 12,2009 8:37 pm

    ursescay

    There is always a score.
  9. mikeA Jun 12,2009 8:39 pm

    Pretty much ever other AL team has won/is winning…

    • green star oakland Jun 12,2009 8:46 pm || Up

      Apart from the O’s, Rays, White Sox & Mariners that is.

      If this is His will, He's a son of a bitch.
  10. monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:51 pm

    who’d we lose to activate nomar?

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
    • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 8:57 pm || Up

      Uh … Cunningham sent down? I just don’t understand the FO sometimes …

      you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  11. mikeA Jun 12,2009 9:18 pm

    At least it was a short game…

  12. mikeA Jun 12,2009 9:23 pm

    While I have the RE matrix out…

    Kennedy safe at the plate: 2.19 RE for the inning.
    Kennedy out: .725 RE for the inning.

    • monkeyball Jun 12,2009 10:52 pm || Up

      What’s 2nd + 3rd w/1 out? (it was 1 out, right?)

      you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  13. mikeA Jun 12,2009 11:03 pm

    0 outs. 2.05. Obviously it a terrible time to take that risk, but it probably didn’t occur to either Kennedy or Gallego that he wouldn’t score on that ball.

    • monkeyball Jun 13,2009 7:15 am || Up

      ah, right.

      yeah, it seemed a fairly safe call — the giants made a heck of a play there

      you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
  14. monkeyball Jun 13,2009 10:20 am

    Minor celeb encounter at the farmers market this morning: met Giants coach Ron Wotus in line at the Healdsburg Bakery stand. He raved about Mazzaro.

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
    • Leopold Bloom Jun 13,2009 4:12 pm || Up

      Should’ve kicked him in the nuts and ran.

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