Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!
- The first rule of FK is, there is no rules at FK
- The second rule of FK is, there is no rules at FK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W6cT3Tvu9g
Thanks, and go As.
They’re going to go beyond slot and pay taxes on it?
I was working on a piece about that subject.
Here’s the basics:
If the draft happened tomorrow (what, like there’s something already on the calendar?) the A’s would pick 11th, 34th, 47th, 63rd and 75th through the second round. The official slot recommendations haven’t been released but they’ve held constant the past two drafts, so I based the next off of the 2011 draft. (Warning: all dollar figures are approximations) Their 10 round draft budget would be $5.896 million. Their 5% overage would be $294,800. The 75% tax hit for that overage would be $221,100. In the past, slot recommendations for all picks after the fifth round has been set at $150,000. Rounds 11-40 have a $100,000 cap per pick. Any moneys that exceed $100,000 in rounds 11-40 gets counted towards the teams allotted draft budget. But the A’s could spend an additional $3 million in rounds 11-40 just by sticking to slot. All told the A’s can budget $8.896 million towards the draft and stick to slot. They can add an extra ~$295 K and only receive a fiscal penalty for the overage.
turn this comment into a post, pls.
feel free to either keep working it up into something more polished/long (TWSS) or just post it as-is.
Maybe after the weekend.
Is that before the draft pick penalty?
I may have this completely wrong but don’t we lose draft picks next year if we go over our $$$ limit this year?
Past a certain dollar amount, yes
Thanks, and go As.
So is saying “We’re cutting the payroll back $X to then put that $X into the draft/intl. budget” a bunch of phooey?
It would appear so
Thanks, and go As.
Okay good to know I’m not the crazy one.
I forget though, is there a cap for intl. spending?
not to my knowledge
Thanks, and go As.
There is. Its like 3m buck per team.
Did they change that after signing Ynoa?
Thanks, and go As.
new CBA
So what fuck is Joe Stiglich talking about?
i have no fucking idea.
That doesn´t apply for Europe, though. I´m willing, if not cheap
Apparently they only spent about $3 mil last year and plan on $10 this year. I guess some/a lot of that goes towards scouting.
I like that idea wrt increased scouting. Why not just hire a shitton of scouts and spread them throughout the country and find every hidden gem there is.
This this this. Ive been saying this for years. They should pay scouts more give them better hotels, make it desirable for the best evaluators in the game to work for the A’s. And then they should send them to random LA country and have them find a bunch of great kids who will play for a 10 k bonus and completely restock the minors.
According to the latest SuSlu article they’re definitely much more focused on the draft in a way that’s supposed to make up for pretty much a lot of what you’ve been complaining about in terms of their half assing it overall the last several years.
exactly. the team never fking cared about amateur talent acquisition at a time when it was most critical.
The organization is too chummy and has shown too much complacence in general.
Too bad that MLB is comprised of 30 heels and no faces. Even the Rays and Jays have too many bruises and blemishes to be rootable.
How? Im defintely rooting for the jays this year
Rogers is a big corporate monolith communications company and not exactly loved among Canadians.
Maybe my heart will warm to them a little once I see the new uniforms on the field.
I don’t think the word “care” is right there. They cared, they were just stuck in neutral for years trying to rebuild while not looking complacent to TPTB. I mean, imagine a few years ago when they expected a decision within a year, then waiting… then nothing… then putting a reset on what you did to start over… then rinse repeat. It’s a shitty way to handle things, sure. But if they had started back when they should have, they’d start getting good now, probably not good enough still with no money to retain the talent and still have to start over again now assuming a decision was to be made.
no they absolutely did not care about the draft.
That’s a giant load of bullshit.
Yeah, I’m with dmoas. They didn’t pick reaches in any way. They didn’t go overslot as much as they could, but I almost buy the theory they didn’t want to disrespect Selig.
They may have focused on the big league roster, but they cared about the draft.
They got some of the least likely players to turn into MLB successes, College hitters that K way too much, and Gray. They spent no money. Besides Gray they didn’t pick one player that projects as a first division starter.
Yeah, once you pick past the first and second round, it’s hard to pick first division starters. The reason they spent no money is because they only had one pick in the expensive rounds.
Part of that was Balfour, who I still think was an OK signing. He could be flipped for a prospect as good as pick 60ish in the draft if he does well. The other parts are the A’s don’t tank (which they should) and they hadn’t had type A’s or B’s for a while (which is indeed a valid concern).
The problems weren’t with the draft itself, but with not gaming the now harder system as much as they could. And if part of that was to keep Selig happy….
It’s easy to say they didn’t do as good as they could, basically because it’s true. But to suggest to they didn’t care is just a steaming pile.
The didn’t pick anyone with upside of becoming a first division starter considering that they have more swing and a miss than the chief administrator in a bar on ladies night.
The refusal to not rig the system but just play by the god damn rules like TOR did the last two years is not caring about talent acquisition.
Spending the third lowest on the draft is not caring.
Picking overvalued specs is not caring.
Not doing as well as they could is not caring.
If the A’s are to become a winning organization they need to start winning every opportunity to acquire talent. The A’s failed to do that.
Failing != not caring
Sucking != not caring
Not putting as much emphasis != not caring
Not gaming the system != not caring
NONE OF THESE things means they didn’t care. It just means their attention and strategical emphasis (both on the field as well as off) was on other things. That doesn’t mean they didn’t care or didn’t try. It just means they had their eyes on a bigger picture, one I’m sure you don’t have omniscient about (none of us do), so you’re attempt to attribute it all to “Fuck this, I don’t care” is just false. And regardless of how you attempt to apply it, it’ll continue to remain false.
Actually not putting emphasis on is the definition of not caring.
No, putting zero emphasis is the definition of not caring. Anything above that is the difference between caring a lot and caring a little.
I’m with this. Their strategy since Crywolffisher bought in has been to be Good Corporate Citizens, specifically as seen by Selugworth. Which means bowing, scraping, waiting, not-wave-making, not-over-slot-going, revenue-sharing-check-receiving, just-enough-on-shitty-FA’s-spending …
This is simply untrue. I’ll agree they focused on the big league team to the detriment of amateur acquisition in 2011 but previous years saw the A’s spend money in the draft and in the international market.
In 2012 the A’s can budget and spend ~$12 million in the draft and on IFA’s without facing anything other than a small fiscal penalty. I hope they approach that number.
They spent less than half the money that the pirates have spent from 07 till last year. Half. Don’t tell me that Pitt is some giant market team that just has money to throw around.
I would say that its likely that the A’s spend about 8m on the draft/IFA next year.
Compare their MLB payrolls during that year and where do they stand?
And yet Pitt won only 2 less games and got a fucking boatload of talent in the draft.
Yes, but they weren’t being fucked by Selig while trying to build a new stadium, they could focus all their attention on actually trying to build a team since they have a new stadium. And yet they still suck and have done so for 20 years.
booooo hooo. They didn’t even half to break the slot system (which they did to a certain extent previously) and the idea that Beane and baseball ops should give a flying fuck about anything besides building a winner with the budget that they have is a failure on their part unless they were given an order to Major League it by Wolff and then fuck him.
Dude, they have a finite about of money to work with. And to act like it’s that simple is just downright stupid. Their priority is to create a sustainable contender, so they’re sure as shit not simply going to keeping the status quo while doing what you want, throwing all their money into the draft. Doing that just makes them a permanent minor league team for the rest the league, it doesn’t make them a winner. They need to add a new source of revenue. In order to do that, they need to show that Oakland and their current situation doesn’t work. So most of their money has to go to the MLB roster. The fact that they’re bringing in shitty players is less about Major Leaguing things and more about saying “hey, *this* is the talent level that we can attract and pay for.” They’re showing that paying out their max budget gets them garbage talent and a less than .500 team.
Thats what Major Leaguing is. Refusing to make the best decisions so they could say “Hey *this* is the talent level that we can attract and pay for”
The only proven model for lower revenue teams to contend is through acquiring talent as IFA or through the draft. The A’s seem to think signing washed up vets and MRP is the way to long term contention. Its crap.
No, Major Leaguing is putting out the absolute worst fucking team on the planet you possibly can in order to become dead last. You’re delusional if you think what you want them to do is in any way sustainable over the long term. Nearly every team is capable of spending a shit ton more on the IFA market, the way things are going there may not even be an IFA with the ever growing threat of an internal draft, MLB and the union are doing whatever they can to take away any advantage there once was in building via the draft. The idea that the A’s can build a competitive team that way anymore while only having a 6 year window, you’d have to be a fucking god in order to be successful with that method. No amount of money is going to get you there and the A’s don’t have money.
Id take Pitts future than the A’s in a fking heartbeat.
If for nothing else, for banging Jolie
on the draft and IFA’s?
yes 6 or so on the draft and 2 on the IFA market. Basically the same bullshit weve been doing.
Really? You want to compare the A’s to the Pirates?
The Pirates haven’t picked lower than 4th since 2007. They’ve also lost 55 more games than Oakland during the same stretch. All that talent they’ve added won’t help their team for a minimum of 3 years, if it develops.
And those games mean what? Id rather lose the games and have their farm/mlb club than what we have.
So the championship or bust argument. Which I find tired and stupid. At least be honest… you want their 2011 draft class vs. the A’s 2011 draft class. And by the time Beane is done trading his wares the A’s are going to have as much “talent” further along in the development process as the Pirates will.
Not true at all. Not one of those years was a year in contention. I care about meaningful games at the end of the year and the playoffs.
Yeah Id take any of their top 6 prospects over what weve got. Our farm is still quite bad.
DFA
You’d take Luis Heredia or Starling Marte over ANYONE the A’s have in their farm system?
That kind of A’s hate makes you a Giants fan.
Also from my numbers they get 5% more than their $6m pool plus 3m for international. Thats hardly 12m.
~$6 million for Rds 1-10.
$100 K cap each pick 11-30. 30 picks X 100,000 = $3 million
IFA = ~$3 million
ahhh… that makes sense, I forgot the last 20 rounds.
Hell, I’d fucking do it if they just pay for the hotels/food/flights/salary.
FKing, please. We get money every time.
Isn’t that essentially what the Pirates tried in India?
no they tried to participate in a fucking reality tv show about who could throw the hardest.
And they won!
Fair enough.
Probably because scouts, as a whole,ddo not havhave a good track record.
Right but if you are in the fucking barrio of Venezuela and giving kids 10k in bonuses and putting them in an academy and letting them play against eachother and then sending the half way decent ones to the DSL I bet you could find a bunch of talent.
you sure have a potty mouth this christmas day.
(not a criticism)
The way the A’s are run pisses me off. Also ive been watching deadwood nonstop and its rubbing off on me.
SFO cocksucker.
{IP’s in Bloom’s pants}
[sigh]
I need a new web address. This one’s got urine on it.
I peed in that years ago.
Basically. Would have been nice to do this last year in the deepest draft in memory instead of signing FUUUUUUUUU or Balfour or Matsui.
A’s are one of 4 teams interested in Iwakuma.
I’d like him fine if the A’s have to spend money. Although Cespedes would be a great fit….
OK, that’s not where I thought I put this comment…
I want Solar
I’d take Jorge Soler as well.
Cheaper, younger, can time better with new core.
Why not make a run after all of them.
If the team was willing to spend 80m on talent we wouldn’t be where we are today.
We’d never sign them all so that’s not an issue.
Sal doesn’t think much of his short-term potential.
He’s big on Cole, though.
Cole may eclipse him in terms of talent and value its true.
YDNSWIDT
I was going for a Solar Eclipse joke. I might have missed other things.
Lol. Always rhought Nick Green was overrated, too.
Isn’t next year’s draft supposed to be offensive heavy?
NM: this looks pretty cool
Yes, I’m determined to find a mobile skin that looks cool for FK
Thanks, and go As.
Installed. Let me know.
Ooh. I like it!
Thanks, and go As.
^^ that was posted from my Evo 4G.
That mobile skin has my vote. Unread comments don’t show up, but the look/feel are fantastic IMO.
Thanks, and go As.
Merry
Christmas EveMiddle-HanukkahFestivusAlmost New Year!This is cool. Good work fellas.
Mike you are an asset to the community.
My wife was joking about Nevermoor being a programmer/barrister.
“He’s a floor wax…”
“He’s a dessert topping…”
And I look just like that
you kinda look like MC Hammer on crack, Humpty.
The big Das Racist single last year had the line
“Mama looks chalky, papa looks stocky… Me, I look a little something like a young Shock G”
THAT is an AWESOME line.
shimmermoor
<3
I wouldn't mind playing around with implementing MOAR FKING KEWL STUFF.
Never really done any wordpress or intertoob stuff. Most I have done is set up a couple different variants of bulletin board software for my fake online baseball league.
Thanks, and go As.
I welcome any and all help. The big project(s) are upgrading to a current version and making my hacks work in a more official/safer way, but neither is sexy enough for me to ever quite get around to.
I’m sure together we can manage to FK up all sorts of fun stuff.
All you need to do is…
:takes off sunglasses:
…email me
Thanks, and go As.
FUCK THAT SHIT
We need a non-anti-elppA tech person to add to the team …
Apparently I just made the iPhone interface awesome.
So use wordpress app?
Couldn’t get that to work, which is why I suggested the mobile theme which has a neat autodetect feature and automatically switches
Thanks, and go As.
Oh, so just try regular mobile browser?
Yessir.
Thanks, and go As.
I don’t think I’m really as anti-apple as people think I am.
Yes, I think Android is better, but the reasons that I believe it’s better are reasons others will cite to say that IOS is better.
Thanks, and go As.
I am though.
Well shit… our powers combined?
Thanks, and go As.
Im going to retry drupal and see if I can get a more ** style auto update w/ unread que
I don’t even know where to start, but I’m in.
Thanks, and go As.
I would love you both more if you do.
you know the only part of old country that I’d miss is the lounge anyway
Thanks, and go As.
…and if we get that interface, we can lounge and game thread here! FUCK AN!
Works for me.
Incidentally, what doesn’t work for me is the auto refresh buttons. I keep hitting the 30s refresh button, but it doesn’t refresh and it resets back to not checking if I click another link.
TECH SUPPORT. TECH SUPPORT WHERE ARE YOU.
Thanks, and go As.
You need to go into the dashboard and set it there otherwise it’s not permanent.
Interesting.
Thanks, and go As.
Right, there’s a default setting in your profile.
I couldn’t figure out how to make your preference sticky when I hacked it in (since the preferences are stored in a DB and I don’t know web 2.0-y server side stuff)
But for whatever reason, I can’t get it to work with my Chrome.
Bloom, that sounds like an inappropriate blowjob.
clockworks?
Agree 100%. I’ll sacrifice comment tracking for this sweet interface.
Thanks Mike!
I just checked it out on my wife’s iphone.
Looking good.
Very easy to navigate.
huzzah!
Looks great, I like it, though the lack an unread comment signpost will require some adaptation.
The right margin is a problem
But enough about the GOP, what do you think of the skin?
Yup. And not knowing what’s unread in a commenty thread is a challenge.
PLus, if you’re logged in on mobile, click on a thread, miss a bunch of new comments … they’re permanently un-newed.
Hmmm…
I’ll have to think about that.
I really think an app is going to be the way to go.
But then, I don’t know from nuthin’. I’m just speculatin’ on a hypothesis.
I’m sure that’s best, but that’s also a lot of work.
My problem was it didn’t put the comment where it was suppose to be
Interesting. Some of the mobile comments have been nested properly, no?
well its why my reply to grover ended up at the bottom
less of a problem for me than before I think
Thanks, and go As.
And this would trump my piece about the amateur budget…
I guess if you’re not going to post it until February…
Thanks, and go As.
I’m guessing a few more leaks will appear on the above. If not, I’ll post by Tuesday.
Do we have to give you a hamburger today?
Thanks, and go As.
Bacon cheese burger and make it snappy.
I could run with that, but the truth is now seems like a good time to add a bit more baseball content to the mix.
more baseball content from grover is always a good thing, regardless of the time.
Thanks, and go As.
Endorsed.
endorseded
Agreed.
this.
naw, fuck that muppet.
[just couldn’t handle the unanimity of this thread…]
Space here is at a premium.
I’ll try and make it worthwhile. I’m working on the draft piece. Then KG will probably have his A’s list posted after New Year’s. BA will cover the A’s late-January.
So 3 posts over the next month.
If that’s OK with you. And the schedule.
Sir.
that made me chortle a lot more than it should have
Thanks, and go As.
As long as they are all on your assigned day of the week with suitable SEO headlines.
(gags on spoon)
Weird. Rosenthal yesterday said it wasn’t going to be at the owner meeting in January.
Maybe because it has already been decided?
Don’t know. Conflicting info either way based on what he said.
His follow up is more interesting.
Which? The one that says 3/4 of owners will approve it so basically FK the giants?
Thanks, and go As.
“@alamedaman23: @BNightengale has selig co-opted the giants? or 3/4 of the owners will approve?â€The owners will approve
So Selugworth has gotten enough of the owners on board to put it to a vote at the owners meetings, and they’ll announce it after that.
Thanks, and go As.
Which makes Rosenthal’s it’s not on the January agenda weird. Unless of course Wolff grew a pair yesterday and requested it.
Well, I am to Century Link (commonly referred to as the Clink up here) to hopefully watch the 9ers move one step closer towards clinching that bye. Temperatures in the low 40s with off-and-on showers–good thing our seats are so bad, that I think we are actually under cover. Should be a good time, and a good game. #noticeme
I’m hoping you will have a FKing sign or something so we see you.
Thanks, and go As.
KNOCKING ON WOOD. FURIOUSLY.
I could easily see us lose this game. Seattle at home is good. (Also, color me jealous)
oh yeah… it’s football day, huh?
I kinda forgot about that. Time to check the Denver score…
Woo hoo!
If this is His will, He is a son of a bitch.
I’m a Goddess person myself. However, I lean more towards the side that man creates the gods rather than vice versa. Rather than become cynical about it, I just decided to build a better Goddess.
Tebow and the donkeys look just as bad as they have in the other games I’ve seen. Actually that’s not quite true – Tebow looks a little better, and the rest of the team much, much worse than in previous games.
Bills up by 10, should be at least 16. Doesn’t matter, they’re just setting jesusboy up for another 4th quarter comeback.
Speaking of looking terrible, every time I glance up at the Oak/KC game someone is either getting a penalty or throwing the ball directly to the other team. I’m still rooting for the whole division to finish 8-8, even though I think that would mean KC would win the tiebreaker.
That was truly one of the ugliest halfs of football I’ve ever watched.
However, sucker that I am, I can still visualize pretty clearly how a couple of good Raider drives and defensive stands could take control of the game in the second half. Of course, I can also visualize clearly the Raider D giving up a 98 yard drive to lose the game late too.
sCam broke Peyton’s rookie passing yard record.
Just insane. Granted it’s a passing league now
Thanks, and go As.
TINSTAAFQC (this week).
Paul allen is a fker. Total waste of taxpayer money.
DFA B8
WTO protests were fun. Along the same lines, you should check out this movie, based on this book by my friend, about how our other friend decided to run for City council in Seattle after the WTO, and did way better than one of my friends should.
nice!
Portland-bound tmw crazy am.
Drive or fly?
Fly. Learned my lesson last year after having to abort a drive over Siskiyou (before we even left) due to inclement weather.
(FTR, I’m actually an accomplished snow/ice/sleet/black ice/mountain pass driver … but I will 100% vote for wimping out with JP in the car.)
with good reason.
No shit? Flying that way this afternoon.
How long you up there? We’re there xmas, coming back here Saturday. Would be great to hook up if you’re proximal and have time. We’ll have a rental car in PDX, so we’re mobile.
Wait for it …
Email me.
Or, y’know, call/text. 415 706 8314
you have done everything right, all g has to do is email
solid.
Thanks, and go As.
Also, Sal will be up there, but he’ll be on sabbatical the whole week.
It’s raining here, big surprise. Leaving for Seattle on Tuesday.
I’m sure it’ll be nice and sunny there.
Holy FKing shit — the fog this morning is awesome!
Found a Peet’s after a bit of driving around.
why would you go to peet’s rather than stumptown?
Cuz we’re all the way out in Tigard
uggggg im sorry
Hey, I was in FKin’ North Plains.
eeeeewww
have fun… I love it up there.
This actually got an out loud chuckle from me. (old country)
Kudos, JL. That’s fantastic.
Thanks, and go As.
Glad someone got a laugh out of it.
The hilarity that has ensued has been MUCH better than getting unbanned.
Thanks, and go As.
Someone should reply to Blez in his stadium post in the vein of “mikev wanted you to know ‘x’ but unfortunately because of his unilateral, surprise banning he’s unable to do so. He also says ‘hi and merry x-mas.'”
I was tempted to reply to his FB post about the stadium thing and say “I can’t respond on ** because I got banned for no apparent reason.”
Thanks, and go As.
Or that. Less publicly, but sure.
You mean he didn’t un friend you like the communication told the rest of us to?
done
nice.
Wonder if tca will bother responding again and continue to say he’s done everything right
Thanks, and go As.
I hope so. I don’t mind starting some meta for once.
Also, I love calling Napoleon ‘tca’. In my work, we use TCA (trichloroethane) for steam oxidation processes. It’s pretty nasty stuff and very undesirable.
that is awesome.
Thanks, and go As.
omg it got rec’d and turned green.
FANTASTIC.
Thanks, and go As.
That was awesome! As is the new sigline, JL!
heh.
It was fun to watch Tebow and the spread get lucky and piss off all the conventional football wisdom people.
Now it will be fun to watch the aftermath, hopefully culminating in a Troy McClure-ian seafood fucking scandal.
KC shoulda known not to depend on a guy named Suckup.
Barring a major SD comeback today: Oakland and Denver 8-7, SD 7-8.
KC@Denver and SD@Oakland next week.
If one of Oakland and Denver wins (and the other loses) they win the division outright.
If both lose, it’s a 3-way tie at 8-8. First tiebreaker is head to head, and they would all be 2-2 (with the road team winning all 6 of those games). Second tiebreaker is division, and they would all be 3-3. Third tiebreaker is common opponents, and … I’m too lazy to figure that one out right now.
If they both win, it’s a 2-way tie at 9-7, again going to the common opponents tiebreaker.
If Denver ends up tied with Oak/SD, Denver wins. If Oak finishes tied with NYJ and/or Cin, Oak gets playoff spot. At least according to this.
Both Den and Oak lost to GB, Det, Buf, NE. Both beat Chi, NYJ, Min. Oak lost to Miami, Denver won.
Thanks, didn’t occur to me that a wild card was still a possibility too. So (still assuming SD’s loss today):
Oakland needs a win, and either a Denver or Cinci loss.
Denver needs a win or an Oakland loss.
And SD is just out.
It seems that Denver would win the common opponents tiebreaker in either scenario. Darn.
Woo Hoo!!! We not sucked at just the right times!
Not every day you knock the Decatur Staleys out of the NFL record book.
Play should have never happened, either. Horrible PI non-call right before the blocked punt.
Thanks, and go As.
Akers is now 3 FGs away from setting the single season point record.
Meanwhile, SF is 1 FG away from losing.
Conservative playcalling after a 40 yard pass.
Thanks, and go As.
If they lose the ball…
If they score 7 the game is over.
Now they’ve given them the ball TWICE with the chance to kick a FG to win the game.
Thanks, and go As.
Much ado about nuttin
Yeah. I just hate the “take 3 points” mentality. Sure, there are a lot of what ifs. What if there’s a turnover, what if you get no points, but you gotta have some trust in your offense to execute.
Go for 7, put the game away, take 3 if you can’t. Don’t run it up the gut 3 straight times.
Thanks, and go As.
Agreed. Alex is as safe a bet as anyone in the league back there to avoid a turnover.
I loved the protection.
You know what’s crazy though, really
Dude is still only 26.
Thanks, and go As.
Yep. I wouldn’t mind keeping him around.
He’s 27. [Grabs pitchfork]
Oh.
Shitcan his ass.
Thanks, and go As.
I like the image of someone throwing a shitcan at him. Or turning him into a shitcan. Or stuffing him into a shitcan.
Note: I like Alex Smith.
Oh he’s not going anywhere. I bet he gets 2 or 3 years, if not 4 if the money and salary cap aspect isn’t bad (and Baalke has been awesome at that so far)
I’m also not really convinced that Kaep is the future, either. I actually heard a rumor that they had moved up to take Dalton, but then Cincy took him and they had to take Kaep. No idea if there’s truth to that or not.
Thanks, and go As.
I have no idea either way, but he has looked perfectly good in the chances he has gotten. Hopefully the Falcons win Monday and we can (1) rest all our hurt guys and (2) give him a half of a real football game.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they pick an early QB next year.
I dunno. With Barkley staying in school, it’s basically going to be Luck, RG3, and then guys like Landry Jones or Brandon Weeden getting picked way too early like Christian Ponder this year.
Maybe Luck will demand a trade to SF.
Thanks, and go As.
Throw in Keenum & Moore on to that list middle list. They wouldn’t need someone to pick up the team immediately if they kept Smith around a few more years.
Keenum maybe, Moore will get destroyed in the NFL unfortunately.
Thanks, and go As.
Probably Tannehill from A&M, too.
I think Luck and RG3 go in the Top 5/10, Jones probably by the middle of the 1st, and then everybody else
Thanks, and go As.
You think? He’s done nothing but win for 4 years. Hell, all the games he’s lost have been a result of botched kicks. Might not be in the top tier, but under the right system and coaching.
I think it would be great if he did. I would root for him, especially over guys like Cam Newton or Philip Rivers, but I don’t know a lot of 5’11, 185 pound quarterbacks in the NFL.
Thanks, and go As.
Listed as 6’1″ – 6’2″, 190. Probably would need to add some bulk for the NFL though.
The thing is this is a win-now team with a QB who can take ’em to 13 wins.
I could see a FA move (everyone says we’d make sense for Peyton if he can ever play again), but I can’t see rolling the dice on another QB given that we already have two promising rookies.
Peyton to the Niners is a rosterbation paradise. It literally would be the absolutely perfect move if Peyton were healthy.
But there’s no conceivable scenario that doesn’t end one of two ways for me: Peyton ends up back with the Colts (restructured contract, old contract whatever) or Peyton retires.
Oh I agree with that completely, which is why I’m fine with Smith going forward.
I really think he’s a pretty solid starter, and the only clear upgrade reasonably available is a healthy Manning. Given this is a playoff-level team, I wouldn’t want to roll the dice on a potential downgrade.
I’m fine with Smith if he comes inexpensively. The offense’s struggles aren’t entirely due to Smith. But to take the next step to being a SB winner is to fix the offense. That means better receiving corps, better play calling, better QB play.
And in the next year or two, it means finding Gore’s replacement.
They really need a true #1 reciever
I think Hunter can replace Gore
Yeah. I would want to be drafting RB / WR / CB in the draft. But I don’t think drafting another QB (especially given where we’ll be picking) moves the ball forward.
@DFA: Crabtree/Morgan/Ginn is pretty good.
also Kyle Williams is going to be a FKing monster.
Thanks, and go As.
Is it? I see possession receiver, hurt possession receiver who is a FA, and iron hands kick returner who is a FA.
Kyle Williams will be an excellent slot receiver, but a true #1? I don’t think so.
Morgan will resign, and he was developing into a beast before he broke his leg.
Also you gotta remember Harbaugh runs his own version of the WCO and it’s still power running/TE heavy. Vernon Davis is going to continue to be a key part of the receiving corps.
Also, they will probably bring back Dominique Ziegler. You can’t deny the power of the fro.
Thanks, and go As.
Morgan was having a couple of good games. However hes coming off a major leg injury.
Like I said, I would target a WR in the draft, but we aren’t as weak there as we have been.
Or really bad enough to justify “weak”
Bratwurst, kraut, (more) kale, mashed potatoes.
Anchor xmas ale.
Cioppino tonight, roast beef tomorrow.
yummy. I should come over, then?
Nice.
Whole crab (even though we still have leftover crab cakes), salad, Acme sour batard, salad. Wine with dinner, Bulleit to go with Santa offerings. Wild mushroom risotto tomorrow night.
(tries to remember Looney Tunes episode when Wile E. Coyote tried to kill the Roadrunner with an Acme Sour Batard)
asvd
Also: Sour Batard would be a good name for a saison from these guys.
prime rib plus hott buttered rum
Grilled cheese. Mendocino oatmeal stout. Lots and lots of caffeine. 7 am flight, 5 am shuttle pickup, cleaning up apt. and packing. JP didn’t nap ’til 5:30, woke up at 8, didn’t get to sleep ’til 12:30.
Gonna be a rough xmas.
Plus, Meesus Moonkeyball feeling sick.
oofda. good luck and good speed. hope mb jr. enjoys the day…
He did awesome! Started getting a bit anxious when he got buckled in, but we got him excited and interested throughout prep, takeoff, and flight. He did better than I did on the approach through the low ceiling into PDX (I hate approaches in overcast weather).
short flight? and the xmas was held at the grandmamam and grandpere’s home?
The older one, on his own, started calling my dad “Gramps”
SFO-PDX. I think flight time was ~ 80 m.
when are you all coming back?
Mid-afternoon New Year’s eve. Already have van service lined up.
Next time travel on days Im working!!!
Hey, if I could time travel, I’d leave when I want and arrive on days you’re working!
Awesome! Llama 1 looked out the window all the way there and back. Llama 2 required repeated readings of Elmo’s 12 Days of Christmas, which has made me a) hate Elmo even more than begore and b) question my MiL’s love for my sanity.
Elmo: not a fan of the lockbox.
… and JP slept almost the entire flight back.
Merry Christmas to you.
Heh.
I mean… Ron Paul says and does some seriously wacky fucking things, but… is there a chance?
Thanks, and go As.
I would LOVE to see Ron Paul lose to Obama in the general election and bring
small-militaryhomophobia, race-war, and gold-bug ideas back into the mainstream of political thought.Come on now. That’s not nice.
The race-war shit is a bunch of BS journalistic baiting, and the gold-bug shit wouldn’t fly, even if he WON the general election.
Just like Occupy Wall Street brought the topic of wealth inequality to the mainstream kitchen table, a Paul candidacy would bring the topic of a small military with minimal foreign engagement back to the mainstream kitchen table.
That’s okay, they don’t qualify for POTUS, either.
asvd
KTOTD
Would someone pop over to Google and tell me if that gif thing is playing for them?
I cannot get the music to play.
Press all the buttons then wait for a second.
I kept muting it when I thought I was pressing play.
Thanks, and go As.
nope. not playing. The ex’s computer is a piece of fucking shit. Space bar’s jacked, too.
It is after I push all the buttons.
the music plays?
Yup
mine does not. Apple? Is that the problem? I don’t like Apples…
OMG YOU GUYS THE NBA STARTS TOMORROW!!!!1!!
Does anybody give a shit about that league anymore?
Thanks, and go As.
Never did. Hoped it folded.
Bill Simmons.
League?
I thought the NBA was advertising itself as “Sports Entertainment” these days… or at least they should.
Entertainment?
indeed
New NBA marketing campaign: “We’ll get you like a case of Anthrax!”
(alternative for Warriors and Kings fans: “At home you feel like a tourist!”)
NBA fan’s self examination= “Could I be happy with something else? I need something to fill my time.”
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
So I guess Adrian Peterson won’t be #1 in fantasy football anymore
Thanks, and go As.
Yeah. Yikes.
Finally finished putting out all the stuff. I’m goin to bed.
Merry Christmas, FKers.
Thanks, and go As.
G’night, sleep tight. We’ll set up stockings in the morning, then go down to Saul’s for bagels & lox. Merry christmas to all y’all FKers as well.
Right back atcha.
Merry and happy and all that. Bitches.
Merry Christmas everybody!
Merry Christmas you FKers! God bless us, each and every one (except the atheists…go cry on you pillows alone, godless losers).
Have a nice day, beautiful people.
I’m stoked that the football game comes on right in the middle of the boring party at the in-laws (teetotaling Christian vegans, oddly enough.) I like her side of the family, but they are definitely not fun party people.
Hi, I’m not sure I know you.
I told ** to **** itself, and now I’m looking for a new home. monkeyball said you were trying to make this less of a sausagefest over here, but I don’t know you…. I don’t think. So, HI!
welcome!
Heh. Irony on Christmas morn’.
Hi, Jennifer.
Hes Gaijin_Suketto over at the old country
Heh heh. Ah, now it makes sense.
Welcome to FK, doll.
Thanks, and go As.
I just wanted to know who spwc was, I won’t be staying.
what youre not intending to email the chief administrator?
Don’t get me started on that giant horse fuck of a mess.
That’s too bad. You talk about all sorts of interesting stuff and it’s fun following your progress in the medical field.
I’m sorry if I’ve ever offended you, but I can assure you that I only meant to boost your ego and make you feel better about yourself when you were down. I apparently failed on that front, and I sincerely apologize.
Ack! No, it’s nothing like that. I’ll email you.
I’m starting to think **** needs a new nickname.
Toonces fits, don’t you think?
tca
I LOVE Toonces.
We’re trying SOOOOOOooo hard to make this less a sausage fest that we drew straws for one of us to get a sex change.
Yeah, baby!
Jennifer! Welcome!
Huzzah! Welcome.
She was already here, though…
I don’t count.
you DO count. A lot.
Dude, not cool.
Welcome anyway!
Jennifer, FUCK YEAH
It’s a Christmas miracle!
Howdy!
Merry FKmas, and a Happy Midwinter Solstice to all!
Also, Newtonmas.
Let’s try to keep our priorities in order: Happy Rickeymas!
thank you.
Three days later, Rickey came back to steal third.
So, um, FK YES.
I got a Merkur 23C for $WINTERTIMEHOLIDAY
Yes, I feel more manly already.
Thanks, and go As.
I got one of these (or similar, I can’t tell).
No one can out man that.
wait does it turn into its own man bag? thats pretty cool
Thanks, and go As.
no, its just for being able to sit on the grass at parks and soccer and stuff. so you ass wont get wet and you don’t have to lug chairs around.
it IS pretty awesome.
Dude thats awesome!!!!!
I got some super awesome japanese hipster jeans, a flannel shirt, and some chinos from nyc along with home made butter + rum for hot buttered rums from my brother.
but I also cleaned up with a 5 1/4 qt Staub Coq Au Vin
My ex-wife stole a watch for me.
I gave myself love.
That’s sweet, in its’ own sour way.
agrd.
Better than stealing it from you.
You’re not a real man until you either use a straight-razor, or let it grow Old Testament style.
That’s why I said “more manly” and not “fully like a man”
I considered a straight razor, but I didn’t want to bother with keeping an edge on it with a strop, etc.
Thanks, and go As.
Yeah, it’s a pain in the ass. I used one for ~10 years, then just got tired of the whole dealio.
do either the straight or the saftey razor give you a really good shave if you do them at home? I was considering both, mostly for the neck since im doing the beard again.
Yes. With a little practice.
It’s also better for your skin and significantly cheaper over the long run.
Thanks, and go As.
cheaper is a key factor for me… buying razors is like getting a mortgage.
My razor: 34 bucks (they also have razor/brush/stand for 70 bucks
10 blades: 6 dollars
Shaving soap: 9 dollars
That’s enough to last for like.. months and months. and the consumables, the razors and soap, are WAY cheaper than disposables
Thanks, and go As.
Right for sure. Also there is the oldtimey/badass component. I just don’t want to put that kinda outlay out if the shave is going to leave a bunch to be desired.
it’s a better shave.
Thanks, and go As.
sweet… have you ever done the straight razor?
Have not.
I’m prolly gonna go to a real live barber shop and get a straight razor shave, then just do maintenance with the safety razor
Thanks, and go As.
WIllie’s on 22nd (next to make out room). They do straight razor. Its pretty fun
yeah… Ive wanted to try it just to say i have but usually its like legit expensive, so Im going to wait till the next time I dispatch the full beard.
“strop” is a particularly manly word.
I like my least-manly-of-all electric razor.
I think they have it backwards. The straight-razor is the last manly, electric near-most, not shaving manliest. It’s based on the “fuck this shit, I’m lazy” factor.
Plus the “i want shiny expensive toys” factor.
You know what, I’m sold!
“Ports?”
and is a pretty good relief pitching prospect for the O’s
Merry Christmas!
Mistake: once eating a red licorice stick in the presence of my mother in law.
Consequence: five consecutive years of an industrial-pack of red licorice.
That happens to me, but frankly, my mother is worse at that
Happy FKristmas one and all.
Visiting the in-laws too, fortunately they’ve glommed on to baseball as my thing so mostly I get shirts/books/cards, but this year also the camera that had intrigued me months ago.
And my only Xmas role has been martini-mixer … a large glass of iced gin carried through a room containing an open bottle of vermouth.
When my old roommate and I went on a martini binge, we actually put some of the vermouth in the drink. Does that mean that we were hardcore, or merely naive?
When you’re on a martini binge its not the vermouth that’s the issue.
I’m currently OCCUPYing one of my xmas presents. Thanks!
You got Justin Herman Plaza for xmas?
I think he’s blogging while with MissusMonkey…
Hoping FKing Santa didn’t offend.
Not at all. Much appreciated all the way ’round.
I literally got oatmeal for Christmas from my ex-MiL. And it wasn’t even the whole package. Half a thing from Costco.
But she’s poor. And crazy. And I do eat a lot of oatmeal these days.
Oatmeal is a whole FKton better than getting her cat wrapped in a box as a present.
Feel your pain. I was asked what my favorite animal was, and made up “penguins” on the spot.
It took four years to wean ’em off of penguin themed stuff.
And once again, my brother in law hauled away the Star Wars and Scrabble themed stuff. My punishment for getting my shit together and appearing a quasi-responsible adult.
Don’t you hate perverse incentives?
Marte has a higher floor than choice is younger and at a higher level. Hereros is a fricking 17 yo and has a true #1 ceiling
So did Ynoa. Unless the kid is Felix and will be in the bigs at age 19, I put zero faith at all in a kid that young.
Thanks, and go As.
Well Heredia fucking autocorrect on the phone has actually pitched stateside with a lot more IP than Ynoa ever had.
That’s fine, but with any pitcher that young I think it would be stupid to take anything other than a “When, not If” stance on an arm injury.
Thanks, and go As.
but the same is true with a 19 yo like Cole or a previously injured pitcher like Parker.
Repeat TJS is pretty rare isn’t it? The only guy I can think of is Capuano
Thanks, and go As.
Its like 10% of cases. That being said his numbers weren’t that good this year.
That’s what I worry about. Parker doesn’t have the numbers to match an A- rating. But even you have to admit, Beane has a knack for getting talented pitchers even if he can’t keep them healthy (although Zito, Haren, Gio, Cahill are all very durable).
Didn’t Huddy originally get hurt in a bar fight?
allegedly
Thanks, and go As.
I think Beane has had a great track record with pitcher’s health… Harden, Braden, Anderson are hardly a huge attrition rate.
Hes too close to the majors for what I would want if I was rebuilding the A’s Id rather have taken a lower level high upside kid and then used the extra value from the certainty and used it to improve the shitty second and third pieces.
But you have to get at least a couple guys who are ready now, so that in 3-4 years when competing starts again there is someone to be the ‘ace’ who isn’t a rookie/2nd year guy
Thanks, and go As.
But they will be expensive by then.
I’m pretty ignorant when it comes to prospect development, so maybe I’m missing something. The goal is to time as many prospects to enter the majors together, a la the Royals. But prospects rise through the system at very different rates: some get injured, some develop more slowly, some get injured. Right? So would it not be better to let Parker develop into an asset over the next three years, then deal him for a 2011-Parker-esque prospect when Cole, Choice et. al are ready for prime time? You get cheap talent on the major league level for three years, and a piece whose development is sure to coincide with the rest when it’s time to bring up the potential stars.
Getting high level strong talent is very difficult as most teams that are in a position to add players for contention will use those high level prospects as players rather than trade bait for anything but truly elite talent. Why would you give up a Matt Moore rather than just use him? Getting elite but low level talent is easier to do because of the point in the competition cycle.
spitballing: wouldn’t you want to stagger at least some players around, so everyone doesn’t get expensive at one time?
no… theyll stagger themselves by maturing at different rates. And you need them to all be good and cheap right around the same time.
In theory, sure. But do you pass up the best package of talent because they’re close to being big league ready?
Looking at the new batch of arms, it’s obvious that Milone is ready to start in Oakland. He put up absolutely dominant numbers in AAA and is at the point where he needs to prove himself vs. big league hitters.
Parker and Peacock, on the other hand, should start the season in AAA. Parker needs to brush up on his breaking ball and I’d prefer if he did that in Sac. He could probably do OK if he started next year in Oakland but why not save some service time? Peacock looks like he needs the AAA innings as well to put the finishing touches on his game.
AJ Cole (probably) heads to Stockton.
Pencil in Oakland’s Opening Day rotation as:
McCarthy
Outman
Moscoso
Milone
Ross/Braden (depending on Braden’s readiness in ST)
McCarthy hits FA after next season and it’s unlikely the A’s offer him $12.5 million in arbitration for the chance to recoup some draft picks. If he’s healthy, he’s probably trade bait by July. Moscoso is a nice arm to have around but he’s someone that you’re always going to be looking to upgrade from. Outman (whom I like) and Ross aren’t exactly sure things, Milone is a rookie and Braden has a long list of injury issues and might even have an innings limit.
There will be opportunities for Parker and Peacock as early as July. Calling them up at mid-season gives the A’s cheap production through 2014 and (depending on Super 2) 2015. But lets say they qualify for Super 2 status in 2015. Right now Brett Anderson is the only player on the A’s roster who is signed for millions of dollars in 2015 and even that is under a club option. As of now, the only starters on the Oakland roster who wouldn’t have been able to (theoretically, at least) file for FA are Milone, Pennington, Allen, Weeks and Carter. Rosales and Blevins would be around as well; maybe a few others. Pennginton, Rosales and Blevins would all be a year away from FA.
So even without trying to stagger salaries the A’s are going to be able to cycle players through.
Well I think you need 3 to four strong top 10 picks drafts to get the franchise somewhere competitive, so by the time that happens Millone is Arb2 Parker and Peacock are Arb 1
I think a turn around can happen quicker than that. I haven’t written off Allen and Carter. Sizemore and Weeks should improve production at their respective positions and with a little luck Pennington might level out somewhere between his 2010 and 2011 seasons. It would be nice if Barton could do 60% of what he did in 2010.
The OF is an issue (I think a turnaround can happen quicker than you suggest but NOT in 2012!) which could see internal answers by mid-2012.
Bailey still has to be dealt. McCarthy strikes me as July trade bait. If Anderson comes back at full strength for the 2nd half of 2012 then he’ll have trade value next offseason. Braden might not be very attractive but letting him provide innings and continuity through 2013 wouldn’t be the worst thing ever.
There are other ways to improve the team than via the draft.
Weeks is likely to be injured and ineffective for half of his 7 years of team control.
Allen has 360 PA of replacement level production and has shown no proclivity to reduce his K rate.
Carter cant play defense and has has his second mediocre year in a row.
Pennington is regressing to where I thought he would be before 10
Sweeney is terrible. Suzuki is league average at best.
Taylor is a mess.
Beane misjudged the market for Bailey, McCarthy is way too much of an injury risk and never had a high enough peak to generate much.
Braden is hurt to meh.
Please show me hope… I would like to see it, I really would
You don’t want hope. Hope invalidates your position.
Allen’s PAs have occurred over 3 seasons. And he did show an ability to reduce the K’s while getting consistent AB in the minors.
To Hell with it. Go ahead and be pissed off.
Hes exactly the kind of person we should be playing but I just don’t think that him becoming a first division starter is more than perhaps a 10 to 20% chance. Not good odds.
Not if they are signed to below market extensions before arby hits.
Thanks, and go As.
Or we get a new revenue source.
Even if we get a new stadium situation the explosion of TV revenues from other clubs will render us comparatively broke and I hardly think that the stadium is going to turn into the bonanza that other people are claiming, no matter where it is built.
I will say, I went to a Sharks game last night and it was packed/jumping. And the tickets are a whole lot more than anything the A’s charge now.
Its a much much smaller stadium, and there are less dates and there is no other better hockey team in your area.
Sure, but it’s a lot of money being spent to consume sports. And SJ A’s would be a lot closer than the Giants (plus there’s a regional identity issue).
this is true… it might be a success, I just think that they screwed the pooch over the last serveral years that its going to help but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that there are less A’s fans than fans of pretty much any other team in baseball.
I never said shit about signing anyone to Pujolian numbers, but we sure as shit will gain enough to handle arbitration of our own kids with a little more to spare. I don’t see anyone claiming a new stadium = magic pixie dust money except for your straw man arguments while acting like everyone took a massive dump in your cereal.
Im saying that the revenue increase isn’t going to be enough to allow us to make shitty decisions. Also look at Beane’s deal with Cahill, it was a bad decision at the time, regardless of how much money you have.
Whatever you say, Chicken Little.
Last time I said the sky was falling it did (2011 poised to contend, Trevor Cahill, shitty year)
Yeah, I think Lew’s failure to appreciate the importance of tv revenue (flushing away the current fanbase is part of that equation), when combined with his incompetence at nailing down a/any stadium solution, is going to be the death knell for the franchise.
Even with a Jan/Feb SJ go-ahead, this team will be mired in the cellar for the next 10 years.
exactly and there isn’t going to be a way to restart fan interest in 10 y like building a new ballpark could
I think the whole flushing away the fan base is grossly overstated. The hardcore group won’t falter too much, but will take a hit. And winning and the new stadium will capture the casual crowd who really doesn’t give a shit about today or yesterday. The key is how they handle things when they break ground and putting together a winning to team before they start in SJ. The TV revenue will take a good while to build up, generally speaking, the corporate sponsorship will get them started on both counts. To get to Anaheim/Texas money (or competitively near it) will probably take longer than 10 years, but to actually be competitive won’t take nearly as long.
When is the TV contract up for renewal, assuming its not a year to year license.
Arby’s hits… usually about forty five minutes to an hour after you eat.
Arby’s hitys = nacho runs
Look how that worked out with Cahill… give an extension to a mediocre pitcher and then you cant even trade them for anything good because the deal sucked so bad.
Except in the case of AZ that lower level arm was Skaggs… whom the D’backs refused to part with. And the drop off from Parker to Corbin/Miley/Holmberg is pretty extreme. Going in their direction would be about a bulk return and not targeting premium talent.
Then get a third team involved that like Parker and had lower level elite talent.
You’re becoming dogmatic in this “Oakland sucks” meme of yours. You want to complain? Fine. Take your shot and then offer an alternative about what the A’s should have done.
Name the mystery 3rd team. Name the low-level prospects.
Otherwise you’re griping just to hear the sound of your own voice and it’s FKing boring.
How about the Red Soxs get Parker and the A’s get Bogarts? Then they can save Bard for the pen.
I’d love that trade. But give me a power hitting SS, and I’m always in love. I really want Cecchini from Boston (and his brother in the draft). Bailey, Parker for Bogaerts, Cecchini?
Id want more. Bogarts Cecchini and Jacobs? I think thats underselling the value of Bailey if you don’t get more.
I take it back. If you can’t be objective don’t say anything.
I get that you don’t like Parker. Fine. Doesn’t phase me in the slightest. But the guy is perceived as a near MLB-ready Ace caliber pitcher and you just suggested trading him for 1 FKing prospect with a half season of Low-A ball under the belt.
Bogartes is a B+ spec according to Sickles Parker is an A- spec accounting for the difference in hitters v pitchers the A’s win that trade every time. So go blow Billy grover
You just got done saying how aiming for low level talent allows a ballclub to acquire more prospects.
Now you’re arguing that a near MLB ready SP prospect with #1 potential would only net 1 low-level prospect.
Pick a through line and stick with it DFA.
If he was traded for a lower level pitcher of the same talent, then yes there would be more coming the A’s way. That doesn’t mean that the A’s wouldn’t do better getting a hitting prospect instead.
Second Sickles says hes got #2 potential not #1.
Third value is value. Bogartes is worth more than Parker, according to the Wang research.
Victor Wang’s research is biased towards hitters because pitchers tend to self destruct more often. And I don’t mean biased in a negative connotation.
The problem is, Parker has endured surgery, recovered, performed and has been (once again) graded as a Top 10 SP prospect. The risk of him flaming out are much less than that of a Taillon or AJ Cole, simply because he’s already cleared so many hurdles.
This is where Wang’s model breaks down. He’s valuing ALL pitching prospects, regardless of level and minor league experience. There are more risks involved with low level arms than guys who have made it through the upper minors. At this point, while I think there’s a legit argument to be made over how good Parker will pitch in the big leagues there is little doubt that he will pitch in the big leagues.
Hell, he’s already done so.
Wang’s work was a theoretical guideline assigning specific values to the aggregate. Those values might not be applicable to a specific individual like Parker.
His numbers when he came back aren’t that good. His slider has lost bite.
He could also reinjure his elbo or his shoulder.
Much of what you say is true. Id rather have low level star ceiling hitters than Parker though.
Which was my point.
“hitters”.
Plural.
Parker for Bogaerts straight up sold the A’s short.
Hitters was to describe a category. If you think it should be more try Bogarts and Christian Vazquez,
It’s Bogaerts. With an “e”.
You’re original comment was Parker for Bogaerts.
No misinterpretation there.
And the problem is that you don’t see that there should be more.
Your right a Sickles B+/A- hitter for a Sickles A- pitcher who I like less than consensus and when pitchers are more risky than hitters. That is a totally unfair deal. I couldn’t believe I was such a fucking idiot that I didn’t think we needed a ton more value coming back. Fuck I mean a B+/A- hitter thats essentially worthless, especially compared to the value of an A- pitching prospect who has an injury history.
I didn’t say unfair; I said you were selling the A’s short. Boston has 3 reliable SP in their rotation and Parker could be pencilled in as early as April. And in return for a universally regarded high-upside, (near or) big league ready A- SP prospect you’re asking for 1 low-A bat in exchange.
You are failing to maximize the value of the asset in play. A complaint you’ve often sent Beane’s direction.
Im sorry, now you are saying that Im improperly valuing an asset when Sickles says that their roughly the same value? Should I stick with Sickles projections or not?
I will always underestimate the return on the A’s side, because I don’t believe in homerism. What doe you think would be equal value a C+ guy? B-? I honestly like what I proposed above Bailey and Parker for Bogarets Crecchini and Jacobs for both teams.
Value is not only tied to a grade. It’s also tied to team need and projected availability.
And for below… the difference is I’m not arguing to change the grade and rate a prospect lower than how he was graded 3 weeks ago.
Youre still hiding from the fact that I answered your question. Name a third team that would want Parker and would give up something good for him… Bogartes and Jacobs from Boston. Its a totally workable deal.
I’m not hiding from anything, this is the first time you’ve suggested Bogaerts and Jacobs for Parker. Your first comment on with Boston as the third team did not include Jacobs. In fact, you didn’t include Jacobs until you talked about packaging Parker with Bailey.
But now, as to the specific idea of Bogaerts and Jacobs for Parker… I think that’s a little rich for Boston’s tastes.
Although if they said yes I’d be happy.
I mean I think its really rich maybe Jose Vinicio instead of Jacobs?
Brentz in lieu of Jacobs.
When I was doodling ideas I came up with Ceccini, asking for Jacobs but expecting Brentz and Gibson. Youkilis might be gone after next season and the Red Sox need Middlebrooks on hand to replace him if necessary. Bogaerts is the new sexy and I wondered if Cecchini might suffer a bit from middle child syndrome. I don’t really like Brentz but Jacobs had such a good year that there’s a strong chance at Boston balking at him AND Cecchini; the potential 3B has the edge in desirability here.
Im not a fan of brentz… Id want someone else
OK.
Sean Coyle instead?
sure.
Sigh.
Sterling Marte: DOB = 10/9/88
Michael Choice: DOB = 11/10/89
Cole has a true #1 ceiling and has pitched in full season ball. Parker is going to be a Top 20 prospect on just about everyone’s list.
But stay angry.
Marte has hit at AA and plays GG CF. A year _ a higher level + playing a premium defensive position makes a big difference.
I like Parker a lot less than consensus I acknowledge that. I also just really like Cole Taillon and Marte. Im more down on Choice and Parker than most. I see Cole as being better than Parker in terms of what the A’s need. I see the A’s Cole and Heredia interchangeable essentially with Cole further along the injury nexus but Heredia clearly farther in development than Cole was at his age.
Stands to reason an IFA would do that over a college guy, no?
which one Heredia or Marte?
Marte.
You would think that a prospect IFA would reach higher levels earlier than a college drafted prospect
You would but it still doesn’t mean that there isn’t a year of physical projection left in the younger player. Furthermore, Marte hit better and Ked than Choice at AA rather than in the hitters paradise of the CAL league while cutting his Ks and significantly increasing his power output. Oh did I mention that he plays GG CF?
Marte’s BB % was also 3.8 last year. When that .390 BABIP goes down, his numbers don’t look so flashy. At Choice’s age in A+, Marte’s K/BB was 59/12 in 253 PAs. Choice’s was 134/61 in 542 PAs. Their K percentages were almost the same (Marte: 23.3; Choice: 24.7), with Choice having 4 times the BBs, and a .257 ISO compared to .117. Yes, Marte’s ISO went up this year in AA, but his other component numbers stayed roughly the same.
Also, you said: “…but it still doesn’t mean that there isn’t a year of physical projection left in the younger player.” Maybe you missed grover’s comment above that Choice is almost a year younger than Marte. I would agree that there’s still a year more physical projection left in Choice than Marte.
Obviously GG defense in CF is one thing that Choice doesn’t have, and it’s definitely true that Marte showed improvement in AA, which is a very good sign. That said, I think it’s a stretch to compare Marte’s offensive numbers to Choice’s favorably.
Your right about the Age… I had it the other way in my head. Though, looking at Choice, im not sure any additional growth would be good for him since hes athletically thick to start out with.
The positional adjustment alone between CF and RF is worth 9 points of wOBA per 600 PA. If Marte is +7.5 in CF and Choice is average in RF thats 17 Points of wOBA that Choice would have to make up.
Further, Marte has sustained very high BABIPs in the minors, so I am less concerned about it. The BB numbers are concerning but since he has shown a strong hit tool previously, he will have to walk less than Choice for the same OBA, which reduces the concern. Finally, I will always take a player who has made a jump in level and improved than one who hasn’t yet.
Good points, although since Choice is currently still in CF, I wouldn’t write him off as a projected average RF at this point… probably more a below average CF, above average RF.
Otherwise, yes, I actually like both Marte and Choice a fair amount, especially as Choice’s Ks had a nice downward trend during 2011.
As to BABIPs, the very high marks are certainly a net positive for Marte, but it has also masked his terrible plate discipline numbers heretofore, and I wouldn’t expect his BABIPs to approach .400 in the ML with better fielders.
I wouldn’t expect 400 BABIP either but if he hits 300 which i certainly believe is possible and does 300 335 425 with plus 7.5 D in Center thats like a 3+ WAR player.
I won’t argue with you at all if you choose Gerrit Cole over any prospect in the A’s system. But Tallion AND Marte over anyone on Oakland’s farm? That’s a stretch.
Who would you take over Taillon?
AJ Cole struck out 1.5/9 more than Taillon but BA wets itself over Taillon’s stuff. They’re at least a draw; an edge to Cole if you go by performance.
Pitt put a limit on Taillon’s curveballs per game, and thats his best pitch.
Which is part of the reason I offered a draw. Pittsburgh made Taillon throw mostly fastballs because they wanted him to work on fastball command. That almost certainly cut back on his K’s but it was a necessary developmental step towards a future big league career. Perhaps Cole had better fastball command from the start, allowing Washington to not put the same restriction in place.
Thats fine. Scouts prefer Taillon by a wide margin though and the numbers are pretty similar.
I acknowledged the scouting love but the numbers show a distinct advantage for one pitcher and you’re arguing against him.
Who was allowed to use his full repitoire
Who was more advanced at the same age and produced superior K/9 numbers.
Im not going to buy that. If I only take politics classes in college because I know everything about them and refuse to take maths because Im trying to keep my GPA at a 4.0, its really not going to prepare me for my job on the Presidents Council of Economic Advisors.
Of course you aren’t going to buy that. But it is a perfectly valid interpretation of the two prospects and presents a sound reason for arguing why Cole could be the superior prospect OR (like I said originally) it would make most sense to declare a draw. My goal is to show that Cole is an equal or better prospect to Taillon and therefore to argue that “any of Pitt’s top 6 prospects are better than the A’s” is flawed. If Cole is equal to or better than Taillon then the logic behind your claim is suspect.
Its prospects. There are going to be disagreements (and I like Cole more than Parker) I just see Taillon’s scouting reports to be substantially better and the difference in Ks isn’t that significant when you look at some of that being lost in BB rate.
Bullshit.
Taillon BB/9 = 2.1
Cole BB/9 = 2.4
whats bullshit? Cole walked more guys. Not a ton more. But he also didn’t strike out a ton more.
What’s bullshit is saying that a .3 BB/9 increase in walks negates a 1.5 difference in K/9.
what part of some do you not understand? Some of that is lost.
A 1.2 difference in K/9 rate isn’t significant now?
Im not sure when you became so fking dense but I liked the old grover better.
Ill math it out for you
Taillons Scouting reports + Draft position + Bonus + Better BB rate in a small sample size + the org not letting him throw his best pitch > Coles better K rate in a really small sample size.
I never said that it wasn’t significant. I said that it wasn’t enough to outweigh the scouting reports for me.
Remind me why its a good thing that they didn’t let him throw his best pitch
Thanks, and go As.
Because low A hitters cant hit a dominant curve even if they know its coming. Big leaguer can. This forces him to refine his tertiary pitches.
And I liked you more when you were an A’s fan, DFA. You tended to make sense, not excuses.
Draft position? Bonus?
You’ve FKing got hard performance data to look at and you want to compare their signing bonuses? Draft position is what you turn to when the initial data reflects poorly on a prospect, not when the performance is complimentary. You made a stupid comment about picking any 6 Pirate prospects over anyone in the Oakland system and instead of just admitting the goof you keep digging in.
You are so pissed off at the A’s that you’ve lost your objectivity; nothing they do is good enough or right. You can’t even write out a comparison between Taillon and AJ Cole without resorting to bias.
Yes absolutely. Draft position and Bonus are by far more significant indicators of success than a 1.5 K/9 gain and loss of .3 BB/9 difference in Low A ball. Especially when the scouting reports unanimously pick Taillon over Cole. Find one service that ranks Cole higher.
You cant because it doesn’t exist.
Cole is a very good spec. I like Cole a lot, as I have previously said. I don’t dislike the Gio trade (I would have gone with the Red Sox hitting approach because I really like Bogartes and Jacobs). I like the Cahill trade more than you did (while still hating it)
I like Heredia better than Cole, That is probably more of a stretch than Taillon over Cole. Taillon over Cole isn’t really, especially when the pro performance you are clinging to is one fricking year of 90 IP
Draft/bonus is pointless in this case. Cole signed for $2 million, setting a new 4th round record. Big fucking deal. You have positive data on both sides. When you have that kind of hard data you should focus on the here and now, not what people were thinking 2 years ago. I’ve already acknowledged the current scouting report edge to Taillon. Interesting footnote: you’ve downplayed Parker’s pre-injury performance in spite of the glowing scouting reports he had back then.
I’m not trying to prove that AJ Cole is a better prospect than Taillon; I’m showing that he’s comparable and that your earlier claim isn’t based on objectivity but is an emotional response to your loathing of the A’s FO.
I don’t really give two shits about pre injury scouting reports. Especially when post injury scouting reports are more suspect. Look at what Sickles had to say:
Personally I love scouting reports to say that there is more risk than anticipated, that the breaking stuff doesn’t look as good pre injury and that the K rate needs to be higher… I mean thats basically all you could ever want in a prospect.
Seriously if you aren’t trying to prove that Cole is a better prospect than why are you bringing up that he was drafted hundreds of picks after Taillon and got less than 1/3 the bonus that Taillon got? Basically the performance gap between the two isn’t significant enough to outweigh the scouting.
Cole is a very good prospect I would rate him as a B+ and Parker a B. They are both valuable, but I would rate Garret Cole an A- and both Taillon and Heredia higher B+ and Marte a B+ which is more valuable because hes a hitter.
You don’t even listen to yourself, DFA. The quote wasn’t that his “breaking stuff doesn’t look as good as pre-injury” it was “he (doesn’t use) his breaking stuff as much as he did pre-injury”.
It’s not uncommon for a team to limit a pitcher’s use of a certain pitch when they want to focus on other parts of his development. This shouldn’t be held against him.
I brought up Cole’s draft story because you made such a big deal out of Taillon’s. Both were sought after HS arms. I don’t think their draft position matters anymore but you seem to feel otherwise.
I don’t trust how you grade prospects. I don’t think you’re being objective when it comes to Oakland’s crop. I think Sickels’ grading system provides a common vernacular for fans of all teams to discuss players and prospects and to insist on a personal variant is hubris and counter-productive.
LOL. You are contradicting yourself here. Either teams limit use of a certain pitch to aid development and that shouldn’t be held against him like you are with Taillon vis a vi Cole, OR it should and Parker should get dinged. I am holding it Parker because its injury related rather than an organizational choice. If throwing his slider broke his old ligament it could likely break the new one.
Draft position matters until you get a significant difference in pro performance. Basically Similar performance but more positive scouting reports for Taillon make him a higher ranked prospect for me.
So I cant disagree with Sickles? and doing so I hubris? LOL thats silly, especially with Heredia, since Sickles has a notably has a super conservative policy on them. For example KG at BP has the 5 I mentioned all at 5 stars except for Marte who is at 4 stars.
I was pointing out your contradiction re: the scouting reports of Taillon vs. Parker, not making one of my own. You do not apply the same standards when judging one prospect vs. the other.
Draft position/signing bonus is a cushion you use when the performance data goes against the prospect in question. Sickels does this often when looking at and grading prospects with one year or less of non-flattering data.
Of course you can disagree with Sickels. I do all the time. I did when discussing Norris with Nats fans. But instead of arguing that Norris didn’t deserve his “B” grade and really deserved a “B-” (thus creating a non-starter to discussion) I acknowledged his given grade but expressed my concern about his performance in AA. I explained that while he was a B grade prospect he only made sense for Oakland if the 3rd and 4th pieces following him in a trade graded higher than OR offered high ceiling potential than a B-/C+ low ceiling types being discussed by the other side.
Hubris is taking Sickels grading system and a few weeks after he publishes his AZ list declaring a prospect he gave an A- to is actually only a B grade guy and expecting your declaration to matter.
I don’t like Parker. How the fuck is that different than you not liking Norris? Saying I like Pitts guys better is both personal preference and Sickles who likes most of Pitts guys better.
I know, sample size of 2, but wasn’t this the arguments for Porcello and Cahill increasing their K rates? Both were advanced too fast, but both had bad K rates because they weren’t allowed to throw curves and neither ended up improving.
Porcello yes. Cahill no. In the minors Cahill’s knuckle curve was considered his out pitch that would allow him to be TOR rather than just a #3 sinkerballer.
Cahill has increased his K-rate from 4.53 to 5.4 to 6.37. He has also increased his fWAR from .6 to 2.5 in 3 years. While his performance has not been dominant he has shown improvement.
I think he’s going to produce dominant numbers down the road but that’s for Cahill to prove.
His BB rate also went back up with the increase in the Krate.
He had issues with his fastball control. I’m not saying Cahill is a finished pitcher by any means; however, to argue to argue that he hasn’t improved is incorrect.
Yeah all the way from a 4.15 to a 4.02 Sierra.
On reflection, I’ve soured on the new qordpress skin, since it hasn’t solved the right margin issue, and I miss being able to find the unread comments.
But still, really, fuck the Giants.
You’re gonna make me try to find a mod to rec that post, aren’t you.
Thanks, and go As.
OK, so the Kindle Fire might be the best FKing bathroom reader ever created.
Thanks, and go As.
whew! bought one for my friend.
Wow. You bought a bathroom for your friend? Why the fuck didn’t you buy me one???!!
You’re being obtuse.
Oh. And here I thought I was being equilateral. My bad.
acute.
I’m telling Red not to deal with you guys.