Warning! Muppet Musings Ahead ← FREE KRAUT!

Warning! Muppet Musings Ahead 120

Now that the new CBA has been ratified and the details have been (mostly) explained, we can take a detailed look at where the A’s stand heading into the 2012 season. All projected arbitration salaries are, of course, projections and could differ from what unfolds down the road but the guys at MLBTR make a fair case for using their numbers. I do not argue for or against their numbers, I simply see no reason to double up on their work. (I do make one exception, but I flag it as such.)

Let’s start with what the A’s spent last year. Cot’s has them with an Opening Day payroll of ~$67 million and per Baseball America they spent ~$3 million in the draft and they didn’t make any notable (i.e. big money) signings in Latin America. So, round numbers, the A’s spent $70 million on the 25 man roster and the acquisition of amateur talent in 2011. It has since been reported that the A’s lost money last year and we’ll have to take that into consideration when discussing the team’s budget for 2012.

2012 Projected Arb. Salaries 2012 Guaranteed Salaries
Gio Gonzalez $4.2 M Kurt Suzuki $5 M
Andrew Bailey $3.5 M Brian Fuentes $5 M
Dallas Braden $3.3 M Grant Balfour $4 M
Brandon McCarthy $3.3 M Trevor Cahill $3.7 M
Craig Breslow $1.8 M Brett Anderson $3.25 M
Ryan Sweeney $1.6 M Mike Wuertz (buy-out) $250 K
Daric Barton $1.5 M
Joey Devine $900 K 10 Roster Spots @ $500 K $5 M
Landon Powell $700 K
Adam Rosales $600 K
Estimated Total $21.4 M Estimated Total $26.2 M

As currently shaped, the A’s 2012 25 man roster will cost ~$47.6 million. Teams will be allowed to spend $2.9 million on signing bonuses in Latin America and their designated draft pool will be determined by draft picks which haven’t been awarded yet. Given Beane’s claims of the team going into the red last season, we probably shouldn’t expect to see the A’s spend more than $65 million on the 25 man roster and amateur signing bonuses.

The Curious Case of DDJ

The A’s have offered David DeJesus salary arbitration as a pending free agent. They hope to re-coup a Sup 1 draft pick, but what happens if DDJ accepts their offer? This is me guessing here but DDJ can’t go to an arbitration hearing and expect to receive more than a 15% raise from his $6 million 2010 salary; so Worst Case Fiscal Scenario for Oakland has DDJ returning to the A’s for an unguaranteed $6.9 million in 2011. While I believe that that represents the most money DDJ could hope to earn on a 1 year contract this offseason, I think it’s unlikely he accepts the A’s arbitration offer. I don’t know if there’s a multi-year deal waiting for him this winter (if there is, no worries for Oakland) but I think there’s a good chance DeJesus signs a 1 year deal for a lesser amount if he can land in a more hitter friendly environment. This would give him the chance to rebuild his stock and hopefully earn him a (final) multi-year payday for 2013 and beyond.

But maybe Greed rules and DDJ accepts arbitration from the A’s. Oakland would have the option of cutting him prior to Opening Day and saving the bulk of the supposed $6.9 million. Or they keep him on the roster and let him play; considering the lack of big league outfield options currently in Oakland this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. Adding DDJ to the big league roster kicks the 25 man payroll to $54 million (47.6 + 6.9 – .5 for the roster spot). That should still leave the A’s far enough under our supposed $65 million ceiling to still fully fund the draft and any excursions in Latin America.

What about DDJ’s production?

I think the guy is going to rebound towards his career norm next season regardless of where he plays. Using Fangraphs’s numbers as a base, we see that DDJ was worth 2.2 WAR last year, a $10 million value. He cost the A’s $6 million, creating $4 million worth of surplus value. Early expectations suggest that the FA cost of a Win will cost $5 million in 2012, meaning if my WC salary prediction is true AND DeJesus performs no better than he did last year the A’s would still hold steady with $4 million in value. There is a chance DDJ performs worse than he did in 2011, but I figure those odds are probably balanced out by the chance DDJ doesn’t earn a raise via arbitration if he plays in Oakland next season.

All this says to me is that there is little downside in offering David DeJesus arbitration. If he declines the A’s get an extra draft pick. If he accepts the A’s get a player who at worse earns his salary and does not affect the A’s ability to spend up to limit of their amateur bonus ceilings.

What Should the A’s do this Offseason?

There are already rumors circulating about teams inquiring on Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey; I’ll touch on them briefly but I want to first focus on what I consider to be moves the A’s should take regardless of whom they may or may not trade.

1) The A’s should sign Brandon McCarthy to a 2 year/$10 million deal with a team controlled 3rd year option for $8 million or a $500 K buy-out. The dollars would break out at $4 million/$5.5 million/$8 million or $500,000. This gives McCarthy more financial security than he’s had as a big league pitcher while giving Oakland an efficient and productive SP who should be good for 160-180 innings of quality pitching. McCarthy is unlikely to ever be a 220+ IP horse, but his combination of K’s and control should provide continued value down the road, especially at these financial terms.

2) Landon Powell and Joey Devine need to be released. The A’s would save ~$500,000 by replacing them with more durable, league minimum salaried players. This $500 K covers most of the raise I’m giving McCarthy in 2012; monies that admittedly won’t matter unless the DDJ Worst Case Scenario comes to fruition. But Devine and Powell are fragile and I’m tired of the team spending time and effort on them.

So What the FK About Trading People?!?!

Oh, the carnage.

There are so many teams interested in Gio Gonzalez that he deserves his own post. One point of note: if the Marlins can’t/won’t include LoMo or Stanton then they don’t have the players to acquire Gio. In fact, I’m not certain the Fish could come up with a suitable package even if they included LoMo. Their farm system is in tatters and would almost certainly rank below the A’s if everyone who published prospect lists printed today. So I’ll sidestep discussing Gio for now save for this: it is possible, maybe even probable, that the A’s starting catcher in 2013 will have to come from whichever team ends up with Gio should he be traded.

Which is a nice segue into trading Kurt Suzuki to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I realize the general perception is that after two rough seasons Zooks has little trade value. I disagree. The Angels are actively shopping for a veteran Catcher and Kurt Suzuki has exactly the intangible qualities that Mike Scioscia wants in his starting backstop. In terms of performance, Kurt Suzuki was worth 2.2 WAR last season. The Angels managed -0.8 WAR from their 2011 backstops. That’s a 30 Run swing, more than enough to start a conversation on the matter. Exactly what could the A’s get in return? I’d target projects that are a minimum of 2-3 years away from realistically being ready for the Show. Switch hitting 3B prospect Kaleb Cowart, the Angels’ top pick in the 2010 draft, spent his rookie year in the Pioneer League and after an 18-33 start to the season he hit .248/.312/.388 for the remainder of the year. Some sources have him earmarked for Low-A ball in 2012, although I’m not certain he’s ready for that challenge. Even if he is, he’s at least 2 years away from a September call-up and that’s only if he has a Mike Trout breakout in him. CF Travis Witherspoon is toolsy and was rated by BA as being a defensive equal to Trout prior to the 2011 season. His bat is a question, though. He has plus bat speed but middling control of the zone. I think the A’s put more emphasis on managing the strike zone than the Angels do and feel their instruction could make a difference. Witherspoon is expected to start 2012 in High-A ball. Finally, LHSP Jean Carlos Santiago from the Angels’ DSL team. I haven’t seen any scouting reports on the guy and at 20 years old he wasn’t exactly young for the DSL but his performance in 2011 was outstanding and he pitched pretty well in 2010. He probably starts next year in one of the short season leagues, although I suppose an excellent Spring could see him start in Low-A.

Could I still find a deal that would work if the Angels balked at giving up Cowart? Yeah… but I don’t want to do all that work. No matter how much the Angels like him, Kaleb Cowart is not going to help them win while they’re running Weaver/Haren/Santana out to the mound. Hank Conger can’t hack it as a starting Catcher and they need to go outside the organization to find their starter for 2012 and a few years beyond.

So if the A’s trade Suzuki, who’s their Catcher in 2012?

I’d sign former Oakland Athletic Ramon Hernandez to a 1 year/$4 million deal with a team option at $4.5 million/$500 K buy-out in 2013. The $4.5 million guaranteed is a 50% raise over what Hernandez made last year with the Reds and should blow any other offers out of the water. He won’t cost a draft pick thanks to the new CBA and with the DH he should be good for 100 –  120 games played, assuming he doesn’t forget his bat in Cincinnati. He’s produced 4.4 WAR over the past two seasons combined despite not topping 100 games played either year. His presence would require the A’s back-up Catcher to be ready 60-70 times in 2012, and I don’t think Powell can handle the work load. Recker or Donaldson should be up to the challenge. An added bonus: going from Suzuki/Powell to Hernandez/Recker would save the A’s approximately $1.2 million and should produce similar performance.

Finally, Andrew Bailey has been getting a lot of buzz in trade discussion as well. With Catcher now a long term need for the A’s I’d ship Bailey to Cincy for C Yasmani Grandal, CF Dave Sappelt and RHSP Daniel Renken. Grandal needs to start the year in AAA and might not be ready to take over as Oakland’s starter until September. He has some work he needs to do behind the plate but his switch-hitting bat will provide average power and a solid OBP. Dave Sappelt murders LH pitching and can play CF; he might not be anything more than a RH platoon outfielder but I’d like to give him a chance to do more. Daniel Renken is a 2010 draft pick who’ll start next season in High-A. He throws 91-93 and has an excellent change-up; in fact BA rated his change as the best in the Reds system. His slider needs work but there’s hope for improvement.

Bailey is replaced by Balfour/Fuentes while Fautino de los Santos gets a little more experience. With any luck DLS is ready to take over as the closer by mid-season and the A’s can deal Fuentes and Balfour for extra prospects.

What I like about this series of moves is that it allows the A’s to build up their farm system while providing reasonable stop-gaps that keep the team from rushing any of its key prospects. Some combination of Allen, Taylor, DDJ, Sappelt and Jermaine Mitchell (once healthy) can cover in the OF while Green and Choice (hearing reasons for optimism on both) continue to develop. Ramon buys time for Grandal in AAA. This allows the A’s to deal Gio, should they choose to do so, for the best combination of talent they can find without having to worry about finding guys they can plug into the big league roster right away. And if things break right (for a change) maybe the A’s are fielding a young, competitive team by the second half of 2012.

I’ve gone longer than I intended… thanks for reading.

120 thoughts on “Warning! Muppet Musings Ahead

  1. vignette17 Nov 23,2011 11:33 pm

    Honestly, what the A’s need most is injections of talent. To me that means you add Cespedes and any other toolsy international players you can. I’m fine with your other plans although I’d like some lower minors bats with upside. Maybe you can get an elite bat prospect for Gio.

    So do all your plans. Add Cespedes for 8/50. Maybe add Jorge Soler. Explore Hisashi Iwakuma again. Hell, think about pursuing Darvish although it will require lots of budget work.

    • grover Nov 23,2011 11:50 pm || Up

      Last I heard Cespedes is looking to get 8 years/$60+ million. For whatever reason the Yankees really seem to believe. Soler might be an option but I haven’t heard the A’s mentioned in the discussion. (And I don’t follow the Cuban exiles very much.)

      • lenscrafters Nov 24,2011 9:52 am || Up

        Jesus, he wants 60 million now?

        I would definitely rather go after Soler if only to stop the Rangers from hoarding so much LA talent.

        • grover Nov 24,2011 11:07 am || Up

          1 rumor is he has an offer for $10 million upfront.

  2. elcroata Nov 24,2011 1:16 am

    Great recap, grover, thanks!

    Just a little note, your 2012 25 man roster seems one player and $500k short (you list Wuertz, but only as a buyout). Who is the player you disagree on in regard to MLBTR arbitration figures?

    I have to say that Bailey’s $3.5m seems on a low side to me, as explained in a comment I wrote on ** some time ago, but I might be mistaken.

    Because survival is insufficient
    • grover Nov 24,2011 1:22 am || Up

      Oh fuck me sideways…

      I was guessing on DDJ’s potential arby-induced raise if he forgoes free agency.

      As for Bailey’s projected salary, keep in mind that he missed almost a third of the season with an injury. Feel free to adjust as you see fit.

      • elcroata Nov 24,2011 2:01 am || Up

        OK, thanks.

        Yes, Street for example logged 200 innings over his first three years, Bailey only made it to 175. I have no idea how much weight this will carry, so $3.5m might be spot on. Here are the comparisons I used, anyway:

        As they were done mid-season, Bailey’s numbers have changed since (now 75 SV, 2.07 ERA)

        Because survival is insufficient
  3. FreeSeatUpgrade Nov 24,2011 8:42 am

    I’d be sad if Gio got traded, because he’s going to be great, he seems like a nice guy, and trading him is an admission of planned non-contention for a minimum of three years. That said, I understand and can’t argue much against that strategy.

    Do you think McCarthy would snap up an A’s offer like the one you describe, or might he think now he can do better elsewhere, either in bottom line dollars or “chance to contend” terms?

    "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
    • FreeSeatUpgrade Nov 24,2011 8:44 am || Up

      Also, great review grover, thanks for taking your talents to FK beach (though The Decision was a bit much).

      "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
      • grover Nov 24,2011 9:07 am || Up

        Hey! The proceeds went to Hope and Charity…

        • spwc2010 Nov 24,2011 9:30 am || Up

          Faithless as always…

          \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
    • grover Nov 24,2011 9:13 am || Up

      Brandon McCarthy has made about $3 million in his pro career; he spent 2010 in the minors rehabbing his shoulder and this contract would give him a raise from what he could expect this season and some security. I can’t guarantee he’ll accept, but he knows if he gets hurt again for any length of time it’ll be near impossible to find a similar deal on the FA market. I suppose it’s possible he might push for a longer deal to stay in Oakland but right now I don’t see that as being a sound play for the A’s.

    • lenscrafters Nov 24,2011 9:50 am || Up

      I don’t think a Gio trade necessary means 3 years of non contention. It’s quite difficult to construct an adequate trade for Gio using only low level, 2-3 years away prospects. Rather, if the A’s get the Haren-esque value they’re rumored to be asking for, such a package would inevitably have to include some close to ready top prospects, able to contribute within a year, or even current young major leaguers. In which case, I could see the A’s having one last hurrah in Oakland at least a year before the new stadium opens.

      There’s always lots of doom and glooming after the A’s trade away/lose stars (post ’01, ’04, ’07, etc) but the reality is that the Beane constructed teams never seem to suffer tremendously in the win column following a major exodus (except for ’06-’07 but the downgrade from Thomas to Piazza was hardly seen as a hope-killing one at the time). We overestimate the impact of the loss of familiar, name brand players and underestimate the talent Beane manages to bring back.

  4. spwc2010 Nov 24,2011 9:59 am

    Texas is going to win the AL West in 2012 unless Dallas gets hit by a comet or Nolan Ryan decides to cheap out and fly the club on a Russian charter airline…

    \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
  5. Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 10:43 am

    Can’t they just be good and I root for them?

    • grover Nov 24,2011 11:06 am || Up

      Only if you spent more time at FK.

      • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 11:20 am || Up

        [sigh]

        • grover Nov 24,2011 11:43 am || Up

          I’ll say this much… if the A’s follow my brilliant plan as outlined above and decide to hold on to Gio for next season then I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility for the A’s to “be good” by the second half of 2012. It would require a bit of Luck, but maybe they’re due.

          Gio, Cahill, McCarthy, Outman & Moscoso makes for a solid if not spectacular starting rotation. Braden and maybe Anderson will be ready by July. Balfour, DLS, Fuentes and Breslow gives you a solid core in the bullpen. Full seasons and a touch of improvement from Weeks and Sizemore helps in the infield; Barton’s return should provide a boost as well. Bringing back DDJ fills one OF hole, although the A’s would still have to mix and match to take care of CF, DH and LF. This is where the Luck has to kick in: Can Sappelt handle CF, at least until Mitchell can get healthy and contribute in a platoon situation? Can one (or more) of Taylor, Carter, Allen produce like the big league hitters the A’s need them to be? There are pieces that could contribute, in a couple cases some fairly well regarded (at one time) prospects that have yet to prove themselves at the highest level.

          Things could actually come together pretty quick.

          • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 11:46 am || Up

            I like Moose Costco.

            Can I have the pig, too?

          • batgirl Nov 24,2011 1:42 pm || Up

            Ok, let’s do that then.

            • grover Nov 24,2011 1:56 pm || Up

              You badmouthed my Eagles. I’m disinclined to acquiesce.

          • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:11 pm || Up

            Luck is good at baseball too?!?

            Also, it figures this comes after I ask for the Gio yellow jersey as my first-ever authentic sports jersey.

            "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    • Soaker Nov 24,2011 11:12 am || Up

      I’m guessing we want to schedule FK Day 2012 in April or May, because once they’re more than 20 games under .500 interest erodes quickly.

      What I discovered Blew. My. Mind. -- Pat Boone
      • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 11:21 am || Up

        I will be working, regardless. I work. A lot.

      • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:12 pm || Up

        Yeah, I think early in the season is good (at least for a first one)

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
  6. MikeV Nov 24,2011 11:37 am

    HAY GUYS I’M LEAVING FOR AWHILE AND I WANT TO POST AND LET EVERYBODY KNOW SO YOU ALL SEE AND KNOW THAT I’M LEAVING INSTEAD OF JUST GRACEFULLY BOWING OUT FOR A BREAK OK NOW YOU ALL KNOW SO I’M LEAVING NOW.

    GUYS. DON’T TRY TO STOP ME. REALLY.

    I’M GOING NOW.

    RIGHT NOW. ANYTIME. I’LL BE OUTTA HERE.

    And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

    Thanks, and go As.

    • grover Nov 24,2011 11:44 am || Up

      WTF are you going on about?

    • Future Ed Nov 24,2011 12:28 pm || Up

      DON’T LEAVE. ITS LIKE MY FAMILY IS BREAKING APART

      I have $5. No I don\'t.
      • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 12:30 pm || Up

        hmm. I have missed more drama over there, apparently.

        • Future Ed Nov 24,2011 12:33 pm || Up

          I just logged on to see, its not that bad.

          My quote is from the PT “why are cops heros because of their job?”/ mb yahooverlords debacle.

          I have $5. No I don\'t.
          • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 12:39 pm || Up

            oh yeah, that was no fun.

            I might have been the one who said that.

          • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:13 pm || Up

            That was when I went from “this place is a fun obsession” to “FK yeah, MB, I’d love to join a splinter group”

            So in a way it’s when FK was born.

            "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:18 pm || Up

      LB: I’ll give you $5 to say “good riddance” and nothing else in that thread.

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
      • grover Nov 24,2011 2:36 pm || Up

        Oh.

        That’s tempting.

      • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 2:43 pm || Up

        I will if the pot gets big enough.

        • Soaker Nov 24,2011 2:56 pm || Up

          I’m in for $10.

          What I discovered Blew. My. Mind. -- Pat Boone
          • DFA Nov 24,2011 11:44 pm || Up

            10 for me too. It also applies to anyone who does that not just LB

            In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
            • Leopold Bloom Nov 25,2011 12:09 am || Up

              Is that $25?

            • monkeyball Nov 25,2011 7:31 am || Up

              What DFA said.

              you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
              • DFA Nov 25,2011 8:08 am || Up

                Ill also give someone 25 bucks to say: DFA sure seemed to talk about baseball a lot, maybe you shouldn’t have banned him.

                In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
                • spwc2010 Nov 25,2011 9:36 am || Up

                  So, lemme get this straight:

                  We’re at $35.47 for “Good Riddance”

                  or $25.00 for “Maybe you shouldn’t have banned DFA”

                  so can I get $60.47 for “Good Riddance. Bring back DFA as the new Blogfather!”?

                  \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
                • Soaker Nov 25,2011 10:08 am || Up

                  I’m amused that there are only about a half-dozen comments that reference N***’s “sabbatical” at all. “Nobody cares” is more damning than “Good riddance”.

                  If you need a “sabbatical” from something that’s supposed to be fun my suggestion is, it’s probably time to dump that hobby entirely and start looking for a new one.

                  What I discovered Blew. My. Mind. -- Pat Boone
                • DFA Nov 25,2011 10:56 am || Up

                  This.

                  In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
                • DFA Nov 25,2011 10:55 am || Up

                  lol.

                  In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
                • nevermoor Nov 25,2011 4:57 pm || Up

                  My offer was for LB only because he is who he is over there.

                  "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
                • Leopold Bloom Nov 28,2011 11:58 pm || Up

                  I’m ready. Let’s do this. Wait. I fucked up, huh?

                  Well, I could put up a front page article.

  7. MikeV Nov 24,2011 11:51 am

    Re: Catcher

    Why not just go with the trio of Donaldson/Recker/Powell? If Grandal happens to go nuclear and is ready for the show sooner rather than later, it’s a little easier to not have to get rid of Ramon again.

    And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

    Thanks, and go As.

    • grover Nov 24,2011 12:03 pm || Up

      ‘Cause I want Ramon.

      I think you need to have a #1 guy at Catcher, even if the reality is he’s on the field just over half the time. I don’t think Powell can hold up physically. Donaldson and Recker are rookies and I don’t want to saddle a pitching staff with a rookie catching crew. Keeping 3 Catchers on the roster is silly.

      If Grandal goes nuclear and Hernandez is hitting he’s a tradeable commodity. If Grandal goes nuclear and Hernandez is doing just OK then he can transition into the #2 role and help mentor Grandal. If Grandal goes nuclear and Hernandez is toast than the A’s can waive him and aren’t out a lot of money.

      • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:17 pm || Up

        Especially where, as here, there isn’t going to be a big situation where we would really prefer him to BLOCK THE FUCKING PLATE

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
  8. Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 12:00 pm

    [whew]

    Just got caught up on two plus weeks of missed FKing.

    Relief.

    • spwc2010 Nov 24,2011 2:27 pm || Up

      You’re probably quite sore. Make sure to use a soothing lotion after you shower.

      \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
  9. MikeV Nov 24,2011 12:44 pm

    Also, McCarthy — I’d offer 3/21 and not blink an eye about it. He’s only 27, and he’s smart enough to realize when his shoulder is acting up and minimize the time he misses

    The injury in itself isn’t major and when it heals, it truly heals so that’s what’s kept me going. When I have it, the pain can be excruciating, but after seven days of rest, it feels like I have a new arm. So while it’s mentally defeating to miss so much time, knowing that it’s just one injury that doesn’t have residual effects, keeps me from ever really getting too down. I have no idea if it can be prevented but have come to peace with the idea that this just might be something I have every year, which turns my focus to how to best deal with it. In the past I’ve rested much longer and then went through the full rehab process, which eats up a lot of time. This year, I noticed the symptoms earlier so I had to take only two weeks off before getting back at it.

    Going forward, my hope is that recognizing it early can save me from a lot of DL time. I might not be able to get 200+ innings a year in because of it, but if I can work around the injury for 140-160+ innings a year, then there’s a career to be made out of that.

    And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

    Thanks, and go As.

    • grover Nov 24,2011 12:52 pm || Up

      His ability to manage the injury is a plus… should I have included that bit in my post? I considered it but felt things were getting long enough.

      My suggested offer could always be redone after 2012 if there mutual interest to do so. If played out, the contract would be 3 years/$17.5 million.

      • MikeV Nov 24,2011 12:58 pm || Up

        Sure. I mean I guess to me it’s just an example of the fact that he isn’t just a lunk who happens to be able to throw a ball 95mph, but he also doesn’t seem to be SO off kilter that he gets into his own head and lets it affect him (if he was, he’d probably get a 7/126 deal from the Giants (hey-o!)

        I mean, even if he regresses a bit from last year and doesn’t lead the league in FIP, I have no problem at all paying him just a little bit more than FFFFFUUUUUUUUU is making.

        And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

        Thanks, and go As.

        • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 1:00 pm || Up

          …how much would you guys sign me for, knowing my injury and posting history?

          • grover Nov 24,2011 1:03 pm || Up

            One hundred million pesos over the length of the contract.

    • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:16 pm || Up

      I agree with this. I think we should definitely try to keep him, but I wouldn’t limit myself to grover’s initial offer.

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
      • grover Nov 24,2011 2:35 pm || Up

        Fair enough. Where do you draw the line?

        • nevermoor Nov 24,2011 8:17 pm || Up

          I think $7M/year is a fair price, as long as the third year is a team option. I would, of course, prefer to mix in some IP incentives, but I think he could earn $14M next year.

          "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
          • grover Nov 24,2011 10:13 pm || Up

            Umm… huh? How could he earn $14 million? Methinks you meant to say something else but I’m not sure what exactly.

            • nevermoor Nov 25,2011 4:59 pm || Up

              I meant in WAR, not actual salary. For reference, fangraphs has this year at $21M

              "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
              • andeux Nov 26,2011 10:00 am || Up

                But he’s under team control now, so what he’s worth next year doesn’t really bear on whether to sign him to a longer-term extension.
                The relevant question is the extra money vs. the extra value for the subsequent years.

                And while his quote above about expecting to miss time every year shows a refreshing amount of self-awareness and honesty for a pro athlete, it doesn’t really make me think McCarthy is a great long-term investment.

                TINSTAAFK
                • grover Nov 26,2011 10:15 am || Up

                  Thus 3 years, including the option.

                  The A’s aren’t going to let McCarthy walk in 2012, nor should they. They’re really only committing themselves to one additional year. The shoulder is a concern, but he’s not so old that the A’s need to worry about age-related decline.

                • nevermoor Nov 26,2011 10:29 am || Up

                  Right. Forgot about that part.

                  I guess I would be willing to go to 7 in the two new years (with a 3rd year buyout).

                  "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
  10. batgirl Nov 24,2011 1:47 pm

    Hmmm. I thought this was going to be a review of the new Muppet Movie.

    Joba Chamberlain looking really bored on the Native American float.

    • grover Nov 24,2011 1:54 pm || Up

      My part ended up on the editing room floor. To Hell with ’em!

      • Leopold Bloom Nov 24,2011 2:02 pm || Up

        srsly. Elmo, my ass! FKing usurper…

        • batgirl Nov 24,2011 2:17 pm || Up

          Aww I think Elmo is pretty cute.

          • grover Nov 24,2011 2:35 pm || Up

            It’s like you’re trying to anger me…

            • batgirl Nov 25,2011 7:59 am || Up

              Hey, I can love Grover, Elmo and grover. There’s no limit on love.

              Now if you want me to start numbered ranking…

              • grover Nov 25,2011 9:18 am || Up

                As long as you ranked Grover first I could manage…

        • spwc2010 Nov 24,2011 2:28 pm || Up

          Agreed. Let’s make pillow stuffing out of him.

          \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
  11. nevermoor Nov 24,2011 2:06 pm

    Stickied. This easily qualifies, thanks for the work!

    "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
  12. monkeyball Nov 25,2011 7:32 am

    I am thankful for grover

    you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
    • grover Nov 25,2011 9:37 am || Up

      I’m thankful for Free Kraut

      • nevermoor Nov 25,2011 4:59 pm || Up

        I’m thankful for both. It’s incredibly rare to get this cohesive a (small) group. It’s also incredibly rare to get a grover.

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
        • Leopold Bloom Nov 28,2011 11:59 pm || Up

          blue n fuzzy rocks. as do all of you. sorry I’ve been AWOL lately.

          • nevermoor Nov 29,2011 12:04 am || Up

            I know how you can make it up to me.

            "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
            • Leopold Bloom Nov 29,2011 12:05 am || Up

              [blinks]

              go on…

              • nevermoor Nov 29,2011 12:43 am || Up

                Well… I’m hoping to someday watch the second episode of Deadwood…

                "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
                • Leopold Bloom Nov 29,2011 3:35 am || Up

                  Your point is valid.

                  I am starting to get sick, so maybe some quality time in front of the television and computer is warranted.

                • nevermoor Nov 29,2011 9:08 am || Up

                  I nag because I love.

                  "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
              • monkeyball Nov 29,2011 9:24 am || Up

                nm needs his leaves raked

                you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
                • andeux Nov 29,2011 9:41 am || Up

                  Is that a euphemism?

                  TINSTAAFK
                • monkeyball Nov 29,2011 11:49 am || Up

                  ask bloom

                  you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
                • Leopold Bloom Nov 29,2011 1:52 pm || Up

                  andeux, are you on facebook do you like gladiator movies?

  13. DFA Nov 25,2011 8:14 am

    Great work Elmo grover! Im wondering why you didn’t have the A’s target one of the Reds good SS specs since thats a position of relative depth with Cozart Hamilton Gregorius etc?

    In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
    • grover Nov 25,2011 9:17 am || Up

      Cincy has Cozart penciled in as their starting SS. If the season started today, none of the guys I listed would be in their Opening Day line-up; to me, that makes it more likely the Reds agree.

      I love speed and no one has more of it than Hamilton but the Reds are likewise enamored with him and the scouting reports I’ve read make it sound like he won’t last at SS. Essentially he’d cost more than he’s going to be worth. I briefly considered Gregorius but Grandal is more important and I don’t think the A’s could get both of them for Bailey.

      • DFA Nov 25,2011 10:58 am || Up

        I was looking at Gregorius as a secondary piece. Also if the A’s are able to include Pennington who will be healthy at the beginning of the year while Cozart is not and provides more certainty, I would love to get him, I wanted the A’s to target him in the Holliday deal.

        In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
        • vignette17 Nov 25,2011 12:41 pm || Up

          That would be nice. Bailey/Pennington for Grandal, Cozart, Sappelt, Renken? Where do I sign?

        • grover Nov 25,2011 2:25 pm || Up

          BA has Gregorius as the #8 prospect in their system, I just don’t think Bailey lands them both. Cozart is expected to be healthy and ready by Spring Training, taking the edge off any Moneypenny fancies the Reds may have.

  14. nevermoor Nov 29,2011 9:31 am

    Here’s a question for our prospect guys: are there any McCarthys floating around this offseason that we should be taking a shot at?

    It seems like there is no way to compete this year, so we should just be trying to maximize the trade value of our ML roster.

    "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    • spwc2010 Nov 29,2011 10:18 am || Up

      I’m not a prospect guy, but if the Angels don’t have rights to Jerome Williams for 2012, I’d take a flier on him.

      \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
    • grover Nov 29,2011 10:20 am || Up

      Ask again after the Dec. 12th non-tender deadline. Right now, there are two names that I think deserve closer looks.

      Mitch Talbot
      Zach Duke

  15. grover Nov 29,2011 10:31 am

    Interesting tidbit…

    Coco wants to stay on the West coast and play for a contender; A’s interested in re-signing him. If location is more desirable than instant winning then maybe Crisp roams CF in 2012? Just guessing, but a 2 year deal with 3rd year team option?

    • nevermoor Nov 29,2011 11:07 am || Up

      I’d love to keep Coco. (1) I think he’s underrated, and likely to earn his salary in his healthy weeks/months; (2) we need live bodies out there; (3) He’s Mrs. N’s favorite A.

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
      • Future Ed Nov 29,2011 12:03 pm || Up

        The best part of the Sanchez for Cabrera deal was making it less likely that Crisp plays for the Giants and my kids won’t therefore like the giants better.

        I have $5. No I don\'t.
        • grover Nov 29,2011 12:09 pm || Up

          Less likely, but far from certain.

          The Giants could sign Crisp, move Melky to LF and Belt to 1B. Cut/bench Huff.

      • vignette17 Nov 29,2011 12:34 pm || Up

        I’d rather have Cespedes or Aoki.

        • grover Nov 29,2011 12:40 pm || Up

          Cespedes is (supposedly) asking for $60+ million. One rumor says he has an offer that includes a $10 million bonus. And BP questions his hit tool, giving it a 50 ceiling.

          • vignette17 Nov 29,2011 12:46 pm || Up

            Obviously the A’s need to investigate thoroughly. But if there’s an international talent that is drawing enough interest to get a $10 M bonus and he plays a position of need, I want the A’s to be on the front lines.

            • grover Nov 29,2011 1:20 pm || Up

              Fair ’nuff.

              Another point… the cap on Latin American bonuses doesn’t go into affect until July, 2013.
              (Supposedly)

              • Future Ed Nov 29,2011 7:45 pm || Up

                three year olds won’t shout “Yoenis Cespedes” over and over. And stop what they are doing to watch him.

                Therefore, Crisp is way way way more valuable.

                I have $5. No I don\'t.
                • thus sayeth the llama Nov 29,2011 9:54 pm || Up

                  Bingo. Cria 1’s favorite players are Coco Crisp and Jemile Weeks.

                • grover Nov 29,2011 10:00 pm || Up

                  A little child shall lead them…

                • FreeSeatUpgrade Nov 29,2011 10:42 pm || Up

                  He should be able to draw a lot of walks.

                  "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
  16. nevermoor Nov 29,2011 11:20 am

    At least our strategic signings are still a year ahead of the Royals.

    "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"

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