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WinExp 44

28 Sep 2011  |  the llama  |Game Thread


Papelbon was -.799

Dan Johnson, in one PA, was +.490.

At basically the same time:

  • The Sox were up 3-2 in the ninth, with nobody on base for Baltimore, and needed just one out to wrap things up. Their WinExp was 95.3%.
  • The Rays were tied in the top of the 12th, the Yanks had men at the corners and nobody out. Rays WinExp was 18.2%.

    At that point, the PlayoffExp for the Red Sox was
    [Probability that Sox win and Rays lose] + [Probability that Sox win and Rays win and Sox win game 163] + [Probability that Sox lose and Rays lose and Sox win game 163]
    Figure the Sox were 50/50 to beat Tampa in game 163. At that moment in time, the PlayoffExp for the Sox was

    (.953)(1-.182) + (.953)(.182)(.5) + (1-.953)(1-.182)(.5) = .8855.

    The Sox went from 89% expectancy to making the playoffs to setting their tee times in about ten minutes.

    • 44 thoughts on “WinExp”

    1. MikeV Sep 28,2011 10:20 pm

      I love you.

      And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

      Thanks, and go As.

    2. andeux Sep 28,2011 10:22 pm

      I was wondering about exactly this calculation, but was too lazy to figure it out. Thanks.

      TINSTAAFK
      • suspicious coin Sep 28,2011 10:24 pm || Up

        Doesn’t even factor in the batter-pitcher matchup and ball-strike count, which probably pushes the PlayoffExp past 90%.

    3. Poppy Sep 28,2011 10:33 pm

      It was fun to watch.

      There's a wild thing in the woolshed and it's keeping me awake at night.
    4. FreeSeatUpgrade Sep 28,2011 10:37 pm

      And I thought this night couldn’t get any better. Great stuff.

      "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
    5. monkeyball Sep 28,2011 10:44 pm

      DanExp. JohnsonExp.

      you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
      • nevermoor Sep 29,2011 9:39 am || Up

        Indeed.

        Dan Johnson joined the Rays in 2008, and hit two home runs that season. The first of them was a game-tying blast against Jonathan Papelbon in this game.

        Johnson played for the Yokohoma BayStars in 2009.

        He returned to the Rays in 2010 and hit the grand total of seven home runs; one of them was a walkoff against the Red Sox.

        Johnson has played with the Rays sparingly in 2011, and he’s hit only two home runs all season. The first was a ninth-inning shot that turned a 7-6 deficit into a 9-7 lead, and the Rays recorded their first victory — one they would desperately need, as things turned out — after opening the season with six straight losses. Johnson’s second home run of the season came in the bottom of the ninth inning in the Rays’ last victory, and pushed their chances of winning from less than five percent to more than fifty percent.

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    6. nevermoor Sep 28,2011 10:59 pm

      You want crazier… I bet the playoff odds of both the Cardinals and Rays making the playoffs was sub 1% about two weeks ago.

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
      • nevermoor Sep 29,2011 12:16 am || Up

        In fact, more like 0.01%

        Rays. Braves.

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    7. ArakSOT Sep 28,2011 10:59 pm

      That was some seriously sweet schadenfreude. Both the Sox and the Yankees came within a strike of winning.

      No Boston or LAA in the playoffs. THANK YOU baseball gods.

      There is always a score.
      • suspicious coin Sep 28,2011 11:05 pm || Up

        Good to see you around. And amen!

      • Poppy Sep 28,2011 11:48 pm || Up

        Are you still in Boston? Is there much wailing in the streets? And do you have some video (and SOUND) of that, please?

        There's a wild thing in the woolshed and it's keeping me awake at night.
        • suspicious coin Sep 28,2011 11:49 pm || Up

          Just point a webcam out your window.

        • lenscrafters Sep 29,2011 1:41 am || Up
          • spwc2010 Sep 29,2011 8:28 am || Up

            I thought that was going to be the clip from Deadspin of some thugs in Boston harassing drivers, and the driver that got out with a baseball bat and started hitting the guys’ skulls and kneecaps for extra-base hits.

            \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
          • Poppy Sep 29,2011 3:38 pm || Up

            NEEDS MOAR TEERZ.

            There's a wild thing in the woolshed and it's keeping me awake at night.
    8. Leopold Bloom Sep 29,2011 3:56 am

      I absolutely despise Papelbon, but he really is a stand-up guy when it comes to talking after the game.

      • spwc2010 Sep 29,2011 8:29 am || Up

        I miss Sparky Lyle.

        \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
        • FreeSeatUpgrade Sep 29,2011 8:30 am || Up

          Someone left a cake out in the…wait, that’s not rain!

          "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
          • dmoas Sep 29,2011 8:31 am || Up

            A l’ttle yella innit?

          • spwc2010 Sep 29,2011 8:44 am || Up

            Dude, stop peeing on the cake, you’ll wash Sparky’s freshly laid turd off!

            \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
      • DFA Sep 29,2011 11:36 am || Up

        Yeah I have a lot more respect for him after that interview than I did before.

        In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor
      • suspicious coin Sep 29,2011 10:39 pm || Up

        Here’s the locker interview. He’s got krazee eyes.

        • Leopold Bloom Sep 30,2011 1:21 am || Up

          Kinda like a self-aware Bill Buckner Jared Loughner?

          • FreeSeatUpgrade Sep 30,2011 8:44 am || Up

            Fixed that for ya.

            "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
            • monkeyball Sep 30,2011 9:30 am || Up

              Low.

              Funny, but low.

              you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
    9. aardvark Sep 29,2011 9:36 am

      Best Moneyball Review. Evar

      • andeux Sep 29,2011 9:45 am || Up

        Pitt never should have designed that poster.

        TINSTAAFK
        • Leopold Bloom Sep 29,2011 1:47 pm || Up

          Screw you! That poster was magical! It deserves the Academy Award!

    10. nevermoor Sep 29,2011 9:37 am

      Nate Silver is also impressed.

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    11. nevermoor Sep 29,2011 9:45 am
      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    12. ptbnl Sep 29,2011 10:06 am

      Name that Red Sock:

      he’s a miserable, dim, finger-pointing, unaccountable wretch of a teammate, and those may be his good qualities.

      (and that’s from the Boston Globe)

      If this is His will, He's a son of a bitch.
      • nevermoor Sep 29,2011 10:14 am || Up

        Drew?

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
        • Soaker Sep 29,2011 10:15 am || Up

          I’d say Drew in the non-pitcher division, but it fits Lackey like a glove.

          What I discovered Blew. My. Mind. -- Pat Boone
      • monkeyball Sep 29,2011 10:25 am || Up

        All of them?

        you better hope to God you don't show up in this little community, because you'll wish you had never come
        • Leopold Bloom Sep 29,2011 1:45 pm || Up

          Even Marco?

          • Future Ed Sep 29,2011 1:51 pm || Up

            he isn’t a red sox anymore

            I have $5. No I don\'t.
            • nevermoor Sep 29,2011 1:56 pm || Up

              Can we have him back?

              "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
              • Future Ed Sep 29,2011 2:03 pm || Up

                not if the giants want to go younger (sorry mikev, took you joke)

                I have $5. No I don\'t.
    13. JediLeroy Sep 29,2011 11:43 am
      az di bobe volt gehat beytsim volt zi geven mayn zeyde
    14. nevermoor Sep 29,2011 11:37 pm

      More on the odds.

      This chart has to be in log-10 scale. There is no other way to present the improbability of a Sox-Braves joint collapse or Rays-Cards joint comeback. Less than a week ago, the odds of either outcome occurring were closer to 1 in 1000 than 1 in 100. On September 4th, the odds for either joint-outcome occurring were a dismal 1 in 100,000. Two days later, the odds of both Tampa Bay and St. Louis playing October were a mind-boggling 1 in 250,000.*

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"

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