Derby Day Open Thread ← FREE KRAUT!

Derby Day Open Thread 63

2 May 2009  |  FreeSeatUpgrade  |FK-All

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Want my Advice? Stay away from West Side Bernie’s. It’s dank and dirty—even by sleazy Seattle cruise bar standards—and they want a goddamn Regal Ransom just to get in the door. But after last night…five run lead blown, walk off desolation…I needed someone. Mr. Hot Stuff or Don fuckin Mossi, didn’t matter. Anyone.

I follow the A’s. In Seattle, this means a room at the General Quarters Inn, a ramshackle joint hard by the freeway, flaking paint, burned out neon, built years ago on the smoldering embers of the famous old tire fire, the Frisean Fire. And in all the years I stayed there, any time of year, day or night, Papa Clem was working the desk. He’d seen it all and knew where to find it.

“I wanna meet someone tonight, Clem. Where do you think…the Musket Man?” He shook his head. “Naw, Jim, that ain’t you.” And that’s how I wound up at Bernie’s, squinting across a strobe lit smoky club, eying queens, hustlers, and rough trade. Unappetizing. The house band was Summer Bird, a horrible P-Funk cover group who couldn’t even get the words right. Knot Just Feet Deep? Atomic Rain? Hell, even with my geekiest BABIP on I was funkier than these guys. The dregs on the floor gave me their best Join In The Dance eyes, but it wasn’t looking good.

And then they walked in. The first 6’2” 230, long dirty blonde hair, no shave, no fear. The second packed his own six feet and two bills, black, smooth, solid. Their faces were burned in my scorebook. Travis Buck and Santiago Casilla. They were headed my way. There was Nowhere to Hide.

I didn’t let on that I knew them. Casilla introduced himself as Jairo. Travis hadn’t really thought it through. “I’m…uh…Joe. Yeah, Joe. Joe…Buck.”

This was my chance. A second chance, no less. That February night in Surprise AZ…the Desert Party…too scared to speak, too shy to make eye contact, I’d slunk away, like Dunkirk, to get drunk in my hotel alone, again, a mumbled “I Want Revenge” an impotent protest of my own uselessness. Which wasn’t gonna Hold Me Back this time.

“Mmmm, how you doin’, Chocolate Candy?” Casilla smiled. Buck nodded as his hand traced a slow spiral down my spine. I stared down the barkeep. He jerked his head towards the back door. “That’s where guys go for Flying Private.”

And they were Mine. That Bird band played Fathership Connection; my confidence swelled. “Who wants to be the Pioneerof the Nile?”

I hit the trifecta. What are the odds?

Okay, now, everybody…Back Your Pony! These are the Morning Line Odds from a few days ago. I will comment as the day goes on with updated odds, some info about the horses, and my choices of how I’m betting my imaginary $100. Please post your own wagers, dump your own links, question my ersatz heterosexuality, make it a butt thread, whatev.

1. West Side Bernie 30-1
2. Musket Man 20-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1
4. Advice 30-1
5. Hold Me Back 15-1
6. Frisean Fire 5-1
7. Papa Clem 20-1
8. Mine That Bird 50-1
9. Join In The Dance 50-1
10. Regal Ransom 30-1
11. Chocolate Candy 20-1
12. General Quarters 20-1
13. I Want Revenge 3-1
14. Atomic Rain 50-1
15. Dunkirk 4-1
16. Pioneer of The Nile 4-1
17. Summer Bird 50-1
18. Nowhere to Hide 50-1
19. Desert Party 15-1
20. Flying Private 50-1

Common wagers and terms:
* Bet to Win: You get paid at the odds shown at post time if you horse finishes first
* Bet to Place: You get paid at a fraction of the odds if your horse finishes first or second
* Bet to Show: You get paid at a smaller fraction of the odds if your horse finishes first, second, or third
* Exacta: Pick the top two finishers in order; pays at a multiple of both horses’ odds
* Trifecta: Pick the top three finishers in order; pays at a multiple of all three horses’ odds
* “Box” your Exacta: Two wagers betting both possible combinations of your two horses finishing first and second
* “Box” your Trifecta: Six wagers betting all six possible combos of your chosen three horses finishing first, second and third

So, you might spend a $100 thusly: $50 on #1 to Win, $10 on #2 to Show, $10 on #3 to Show, and a $5 Boxed Trifecta (6 bets x $5 = $30) on the 1-2-3 horses in any order.

By the way, I really don’t know shit about horses. I just love a good excuse to drink and watch TV. Let the juleps flow! More later.

Edit–Hats:

63 thoughts on “Derby Day Open Thread”

  1. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 8:04 am

    Update odds: 8:00 PDT per sportsbook.com (original odds in strikethrough)
    1. West Side Bernie 30-1 40-1
    2. Musket Man 20-1 25-1
    3. Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1 30-1
    4. Advice 30-1 25-1
    5. Hold Me Back 15-1 12-1
    6. Frisean Fire 5-1 4-1
    7. Papa Clem 20-1 12-1
    8. Mine That Bird 50-1 50-1
    9. Join In The Dance 50-1 50-1
    10. Regal Ransom 30-1 15-1
    11. Chocolate Candy 20-1 8-1
    12. General Quarters 20-1 5-1
    13. I Want Revenge 3-1 scratched
    14. Atomic Rain 50-1 50-1
    15. Dunkirk 4-1 4-1
    16. Pioneer of The Nile 4-1 9-2
    17. Summer Bird 50-1 30-1
    18. Nowhere to Hide 50-1 50-1
    19. Desert Party 15-1 10-1
    20. Flying Private 50-1 50-1

    Big news, obviously, is that the Morning Line favorite I Want Revenge has been scratched due to a “hot spot” in his ankle. Or some bad Canadian sushi. Hard to say for sure. Money has moved in pretty heavily on Pioneerof The Nile, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, and General Quarters, dropping the odds as shown.

  2. monkeyball May 2,2009 8:46 am

    I think I’ll spend the morning “boxing my exacta.”

  3. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 8:47 am

    Some horse notes:

    Only five horses have posted better than 100 “Beyer Speed Figure.” Beyer is a park-adjusted measure of speed. The five: West Side Bernie, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, General Quarters, and Dunkirk.

    Pioneerof the Nile has four straight wins, but carries the doubts which always accompany California Horses. Chocolate Candy is your Northern California entry, but he’s not beaten Pioneer in several attempts.

    Both CA horses have strong finishing speed, which will help if the early pace is too fast for many horses to sustain.

    Regal Ransom and Desert Party have been racing in the United Arab Emirates and are thus particularly hard to measure v the US horses. Regal beat Desert last time, but Desert bested him twice before that.

    Friesan Fire has three straight wins, but the quality of his opponents is a bit suspect. Musket Man has a similar recent history.

    Dunkirk is named after one of the most famous retreats in military history.

    Summer Bird’s trainer is named Tim Ice. Nowhere to Hide’s trainer is named Zito.

    This is generally regarded as a very strong field, with four or five legit favorites and a bunch of potentially good value from horse with odds in the 8-1 to 15-1 range. I’ll likely end up with my money on one or more of those.

  4. Poppy May 2,2009 8:58 am

    I know how to saddle and ride horses (normal-like, not like a fat 5’9″ jockey), but I don’t know shit about betting on them.

  5. andeux May 2,2009 10:54 am

    FSU, are you going to GGF to watch the race?

  6. mikeA May 2,2009 11:38 am

    I won $50 a couple months ago betting on plastic mechanized horses up in Tahoe. The combo of horses 3 and 5 came up big for me.

  7. 2icecream May 2,2009 11:43 am

    Sloppy track + inside speed bias = Regal Ransom going wire-to-wire from the 10-hole.

  8. 74mk May 2,2009 11:49 am

    How do I recommend this? Stupid FK 1.0.

    Travis hadn’t really thought it through. Good stuff.

    I don’t know what to think about the people who name these horses. I Want Revenge, Nowhere to Hide, Hold Me Back … I’m pretty sure that if my parents had named me “I Want Revenge”, I’d be on an awful lot of mood-leveling medication right now. Even if you’re a horse, and you don’t know what “revenge” means, or even what names are or why the hell all these short people make you run in circles (ovals?) all the time, it can’t help.

  9. Razr May 2,2009 12:24 pm

    This is like one of mb’s poetic interludes except it ain’t a poem and fsu wrote it. Ok, maybe it’s not like that but it’s fk-ing awesome.

  10. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 1:02 pm

    Odds now per sportsbook.com, two hours until post time:

    1. West Side Bernie 30-1
2. Musket Man         25-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff       40-1
4. Advice                 30-1
5. Hold Me Back     12-1
6. Frisean Fire            7-2
7. Papa Clem            12-1
8. Mine That Bird     40-1
9. Join In The Dance 50-1
10. Regal Ransom     18-1
11. Chocolate Candy   7-1
12. General Quarters   7-1
13. I Want Revenge SCRATCHED
14. Atomic Rain        40-1
15. Dunkirk                 9-2
16. Pioneerof The Nile 9-2
17. Summer Bird       45-1
18. Nowhere to Hide 40-1
19. Desert Party         12-1
20. Flying Private      30-1

    Little movement on the prices for the faves; the Dubai horses slipping as the track stays sloppy, Desert Party to 12-1 and Regal Ransom to 18-1, a nice price for Ice Cream up there. Lot of intriguing lines in that second tier of horses. I’ll have my picks up shortly.

  11. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 1:19 pm

    Gotta go with the man who’s seen it all and knows where to find it. Papa Clem takes the lead in the last quarter mile and staves off a bunch of hard-running late finishers with the mud flying.

    I’ll lay $50 on Papa Clem to Win, $20 on Musket Man to Show, and I’ll box the trifecta for $30 ($5 x 6) with those two and Friesan Fire, 7-6-2.

  12. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 1:22 pm

    NBC’s fashion montage set to No Doubt’s I’m Just a Girl.

  13. andeux May 2,2009 1:34 pm

    I’m off to the track. Will lay a couple bucks (real money) each on Papa Clem and Regal Ransom.

  14. xbhaskarx May 2,2009 2:07 pm

    Heh, I saw there was a Derby thread and I knew it had to be FSU.

    I don’t actually care for horseracing, but I still get caught up in the big three races (at least for two minutes a year) just because I love the names, and it’s fun to try picking the winners.

  15. xbhaskarx May 2,2009 2:13 pm

    Based on just the names, I’ll go:
    1. Dunkirk
    2. Pioneer of the Nile
    3. Regal Ransom

    As with March Madness (** pool winner), I’ll go with favorites and hope all the experts blow it by overthinking / showing of their knowledge.
    It’s a win-win. If I get it wrong, hey, I know nothing about horseracing.

  16. monkeyball May 2,2009 2:50 pm

    My picks:
    1. Zombie Gee, Dad Helicopter Sabotage Targets Indian Billionaire
    2. Verhoeven’s American Genre Pictures Punch Geren in the Face Now!
    3. Candy Maw Inane Banter Avoidance
    4. Tantric Landslide
    5. Voracious Insect Mother

  17. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 2:52 pm

    2:45 pm odds, still all over the map.

    1. West Side Bernie 32-1
2. Musket Man         19-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff       26-1
4. Advice                 47-1
5. Hold Me Back     12-1
6. Frisean Fire            7-2
7. Papa Clem            13-1
8. Mine That Bird     47-1
9. Join In The Dance 49-1
10. Regal Ransom     22-1
11. Chocolate Candy   9-1
12. General Quarters   9-1
13. I Want Revenge SCRATCHED
14. Atomic Rain        53-1
15. Dunkirk                 6-1
16. Pioneerof The Nile 6-1
17. Summer Bird       42-1
18. Nowhere to Hide 42-1
19. Desert Party         14-1
20. Flying Private      43-1
  18. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 2:54 pm

    Really well dressed people walking primly through the mud next to shitting horses. America is awesome.

  19. Jjjsixsix May 2,2009 2:58 pm

    okay, after staring idly at TV coverage while eating lunch, I really want General Quarters to win.

  20. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 3:15 pm

    Steven Foster FTW. “Where all of the darkies people are gay.”

  21. Leopold Bloom May 2,2009 3:15 pm

    Anyone else read HST’s foray into the Derby world?

  22. mikeA May 2,2009 3:23 pm

    Nowhere to Hide is trained by Nick Zito; it will probably run around the track in the wrong direction end up dating Hillary Duff in a couple years.

  23. xbhaskarx May 2,2009 3:31 pm

    Mine that Bird?
    { rips up tickets }

  24. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 3:33 pm

    I shoulda been tipped to Mine That Bird when I had so much trouble working him into my story.

  25. xbhaskarx May 2,2009 3:37 pm

    This is the first year they had steroids testing at the Derby, right?
    Coincidence that an unknown $9,000 horse at 50-1 blew away the rest of the field? Probably, but it’s still interesting.

  26. mikeA May 2,2009 3:37 pm

    Weird thing about the victory lap is that probably between 99 and 100% of the crowd is pissed.

  27. Jjjsixsix May 2,2009 3:51 pm

    of COURSE the espn headline is “‘Bird’ is the Word.”

    of course it is.

  28. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 3:58 pm

    Damn, $103.20 payout on a $2 Win bet for Mine That Bird…$41.5K on a $2 8-16-2 trifecta. Gotta love the longshot payout.

    Let the record reflect that I had two horses in the top 4, and that my Musket Man to Show payout of $120 makes me a minor 20% ROI winner on the day.

  29. FreeSeatUpgrade May 2,2009 4:28 pm

    Casilla to 15 day DL with a sprained right knee. A sprained right knee?! Gio up.

  30. monkeyball May 2,2009 4:40 pm
  31. 74mk May 2,2009 4:50 pm

    Levitt:

    If I had to pick a last-place finisher (a bet they would never actually offer at the track because people involved with horse racing understand better than most that people respond to incentives), it would be Mine That Bird.

  32. soaker May 2,2009 5:48 pm

    5/2/09–The Spectrum, Philadelphia, PA

    1. Saturday Night, Brown Eyed Women, Schoolgirl, Althea, He’s Gone>UJB>Mason’s Children

    (live broadcast on SiriusXM)

    Where the hell was The Race Is On? Anyway…I’ll have A’s-Mariners on video, but sorry Ken and Vince, you are preempted on audio for the first six innings or so tonight.

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