We haven’t had a KTOTD in a while.
The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming! Emergency, everybody to get from street!
Ever wonder why the person trolling you on Facetwitagram types with a Russian accent?
OK, I’ll get off the cold war. I don’t think anyone has posted this here yet, though y’all might have seen the FKface von Clownstick bit Jon Stewart just gave us.
Dump away, fkers.
The Clinton campaign should have been pounding on this stuff for months, that he’s not as rich as he says he is. Part of his appeal is that he’s successful, and the more that is undercut the less he has to sell to the masses.
My suspicion is that the universe of potential Trump voters consists of two groups: people could never be convinced he is anything buy a yugely successful businessman, and people who don’t care because they are in it for the tax cuts/racism/lock-her-up stuff.
There was some use in provoking him to anger about it, like she did in the first debate or Mark Cuban tried to do on Twitter. But I’m not sure it could move votes on its own.
I think it had the potential to really get under his skin, especially if repeated over and over through the last months/weeks of the campaign.
Mutually assured cyber destruction
but it would hurt the US politicians worse
Neat system we have
he has to say it before the election for maximum impact. if it makes a difference, he’ll cave
Probably true. But imagine the circus it would be.
am i reading you right? are you exhibiting an air of… confidence?
WANT.
i’m doing one of those tricks i play on myself. the one where i imagine the worst is already real, inhabit it, just so i’m not quite as suicidy-feely in case it does happen.
I’m confident she’ll win. But I’m sick about what happens on the off chance she doesn’t and what this whole campaign has revealed about the republic.
the firewall is pretty solid. she is leading by over 5 in CO, PA, NH. has a solid shot at one of NV/nc/FLA or all three. has an outside cahnce at OH, IA, AZ, GA.
Trump has to be very organized to pull off all of those. And he isn’t. I bet the ground game is for shit. I know 4 people who are on their way to NV right now to drive vans of people to the polls.
but yeah, the next year is going to be painful.
Nevada is looking like a blowout based on the early vote. Apparently Latino turnout is through the roof, with polls staying open into the night in Vegas because of long lines.
Ralston’s calling it in Nevada.
Bah. While they’re screaming about Mexican drug dealers and rapists, I have quietly voted six times and should get in at least four more by Tuesday night.
Yeah, but they were all for None of The Above
Almost immediately after the election I have to make a rather lengthy drive through rural Idaho, in order to be in Pullman next Saturday. I was thinking, slapping a couple Make America Great Again bumper stickers on might ease my way through the Second Amendment checkpoints, at least offsetting my license plate from traitorously blue Nevada.
Mr. Pecker
Paywalled. I’ll look for other sources I can link to.
Interesting. It wasn’t paywalled last night. I wonder if they temporarily dropped it to get wider impact from the scoop.
FA Cup first round! The oldest footie competition in the world, open to the top 10 levels of the league.
As an unseeded knockout competition it’s all about the giant-killers, the cupsets, the Hereford-Newcastles.
Granted the first 6 rounds are a qualifying competition to winnow the bottom 6 tiers (the “non-league” teams) from hundreds to 32, and the 1st and 2nd rounds proper only add the 3rd and 4th tiers (now misnamed the 1st and 2nd divisions) so the top 2 tiers (Premiership and Championship) only join in the 3rd round, but you do still get the occasional amateur team beating a Premiership side … my how we laugh!
Sounds like the US Open Cup!
Thanks, and go As.
Paul Ryan told reporters this morning that he would finally make his first campaign appearance with Trump tomorrow in Wisconsin. Hours later, Trump cancels the trip to Wisconsin and announces he’s going to Minnesota instead.
wait. minnesota?
Right?
It seems he went there because he wanted to shit on their Somali population before this thing ends.
I’m really sad because I always fly the Minnesota-based airline that let him use their hangar. Turns out the owner is a big fan. Now I may have to go back to Delta (ugh) or one of the carriers where I’ll have to change in Chicago or Denver (double ugh and especially in the winter).
Hey guys, today is twenty years that I [i/e]migrated, I’m drunk and nostalgic, so of course I did not step away from the keyboard. And as you (both here and at AN and some in real life) have been a part of my new life, thanks to you and here’s the text.
how come you write better in english than all english first languagers
whisky
bah. immigrants.
(lovely.)
anyone know if soaker was released by homeland security?
Hmmmmmmm…
thus preserving the filibuster for another two years
Assuming no other vacancy before then.
#nevershanahan
Oh dear God.
Your Broncos are in for a world of pain tonight batgirl. I recommend drinking heavily now.
Ha Ha! I was just coming to see how you’re feeling and I see the answer is brimming with overconfidence.
Welcome to 3rd place.
What a great win. Raiders finally rose to a big occasion for first time in a long time.
Definitely seemed like their best all-around performance of the year.
Sigh. Congrats. Your squad played well. I’m certainly hoping to turn the tables on you in the rematch!
is that how you are supposed to do it?
yes it can be done, but only some can do it
for those who can’t dance, just clap your hands to it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/sport/video-1200185/Jonathan-Calleri-scores-outrageous-rabona-goal-Boca.html
But it’s not impossible.
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That was awesome.
Also, FK the Steelers.
Every time I see this anti-prop-53 ad with it’s opening line, “I am Governor Jerry Brown”, I hear in my head “my aura smiles and never frowns”.
I’d rather have him as president instead of Hillary, though.
Yeah, I thought it would be interesting to have him throw his hat in the ring this time too.
almost beat the last clinton
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAIDERS
Congrats (a day late) to Ireland. Fuck the
YankeesAll Blacks.GiantsLemme just go ahead and…
Thanks, and go As.
The difference being that no team has waited 111 years to beat the Giants.
Still.
Thanks, and go As.
I’ve seen (IIRC) a lot of critical views on Nate Silver this time around. Is it more the methodology or persona and does anyone care to explain?
I think he’s mostly getting picked on because he is a high profile smartypants and a significant outlier for the presidential predictions. Most of the criticism that I’ve seen has been content-free — I don’t believe at all the claims that 538 is fudging their model to get better ratings. The one substantive criticism that I saw was from Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium), who thinks that the 538 model is basically double-counting swings that show up in state and national polls.
One of the most interesting polling-related developments is this theory, which says that no one is really changing their mind, or even changing their likelihood of casting a ballot. Rather, the swings in the polls just happen because people change their polling response rates (i.e. if Hillary has a bad week, then her supporters are trying to shut out the political noise and are less likely to pick up a phone call from a pollster).
If this is true, then Wang’s stable polling-median estimator will probably fair very well.
Yglesias had a smart critique this morning that says Silver is low because he treats so many third party voters as random uncertainty, when in fact that certainty should be assymetric.
A bit of both. In both his baseball models and his election models, he adds a lot of complication, which he keeps proprietary, but it is not at all clear that all the extra parameters lead to better predictions than much simpler models, or are really justified in a theoretical sense. On the persona side, he seems thin-skinned about criticism.
To go into a little more detail on the election stuff: He first became well-known in 2008, when he was able to make predictions about primaries in states where polling was scant by making demographic comparisons with other states which were either better polled or had already had their primaries. That was a very clever idea, and seemed to work well in the absence of better data.
In a general election, the situation is quite different – voters are already more familiar with the candidates, everyone votes at the same time, and there is an abundance of polling data in any state that is at all close. So it’s not at all clear what, if anything, Silver’s demographic models gain over a simple time-weighted average of polls (along with the likely voter adjustments that individual pollsters are already doing).
So in terms of who is winning and by how much, at this point there is no real difference between the various poll aggregators. There still seem to be big differences in translating that into a probability of victory, which also depends on some estimate of possible systemic error in the polls. Silver seems to believe in the possibility of a fairly large systemic error (which could be e.g. either errors in everyone’s underlying likely voter models, or large numbers of people changing their minds at the last minute) but has not really explained why. (Ironically, IIRC he was one of the people who did a good job debunking the idea of a “Bradley effect” as a possible systemic error before the election in 2008).
I am a fan of Sam Wang whose model is transparent, and who seems to understand the underlying stats at least as well as Silver does. His most recent post yesterday went into how he estimates uncertainty, and he concedes that his published confidence may be a bit too high, while making a strong case that Silver’s is way too low.
it got a little personal earlier, when trump won the nomination, and instead of discourse going solely into what makes a good predictive model, it got mixed up and diluted with a bit of eyeball vs stats, optimism vs pessimism in prediction, and ad hominem crap in all directions. IOW, so disappointing when the leading people in any field behave exactly like your friends do in a fray, but there you have it. then again, totally in line for human behavior, if we consider that most wars are predicated and justified on a level that kindergarten bullies would understand.
currently though, he hasn’t swung totally away from that level and you can hear it in his voice during podcasts when he starts calling people idiotic. that’s why i’ve pretty much joined harry enten’s fan club as a way to seek light entertainment AND understand what’s going on, and i can’t wait to share a diet cream soda with him.
Harry FKing rules. The podcasts where it’s just him and someone else, without Nate or the fairly useless Clare, are the best.
Thanks.
It’s at the same time thrilling and little concerning that the smartest and most informed group of people I interact with are
a) in good part, people I never actually met
b) Americans (suck it, I love my stereotypes)
c) people who came into my life through baseball
Right back atcha
I’m curious about this alternative forecasting method. If nothing else, the hybrid approach adds a perspective missing from the models that just try to turn topline public polling data into a probability.
I’m also a big fan of what Nate Cohn is doing at the New York Times’ “Upshot” site, including using early voting in North Carolina to test his own poll’s turnout assumptions in that state. That kind of stuff really advances our understanding of how these elections work. I’ll be hanging out there, not at 538, on election night.
I love Haren.
Thanks, and go As.
Great handle too.
do we know if it was fake blood?
No, but it’s fun to insult him like that and it’s at least possible. It’s not like this year with the actively dripping blood.
This story from last week made me more willing to believe Schilling that much of a jackass.
The FBI should investigate!
and make Boston pay for it!
Thanks, and go As.
I shuddered so violently at this I almost ripped my shirt.
That’ll show those Washington insiders!
Maybe he can find a spot for Curt Schilling.
Surgeon General?
Hawk even being on this list with Bill enrages me.
Um…OK.
Is it that my eyes are getting worse or is that New Yorker font really hard to read online?
it’s that new digital responsive font. gauges how much you believe what you’re reading and makes it exactly that legible.
http://www.wnyc.org/story/beck-changed-man/
i think garfield is my favorite interviewer ever. he’s really “fuck you” but in a way that’s all “well, the facts are, fuck you.”
This is like the death-bed conversion approach to getting into heaven.
Until he makes some serious personal reparations for his part in wishing the alt-right shitfest upon us all, colour me unimpressed.
This is insane, and also those fried chicken and avocado things look amazing.
Fact check, elcroata?
They’re laughing… at you.
winner
One of my colleagues who’s a newcomer to the Bay Area and has become a Raider fan decided to buy his first seat in the Black Hole for Sunday’s game. He noticed a guy who had a Trump sign in amongst all the STAY IN OAKLAND signage. A while later, he heard a commotion and saw security walking down the aisle.
Trump guy points to torn-up sign on the ground and one of the Black Hole regulars. “He tore up my sign!”
Security: Did you tear up his sign, sir?
BH fan: Nope.
Several other fans: Nope, we didn’t see anyone tear up a sign.
Security, to Trump guy: Okay sir, maybe you want to sit someplace else, we can help you with that.
Trump guy exits to a loud chant from the section of FK DONALD TRUMP!
Ok, fine. My hatred of Raiders fans dropped a few points.
Anyone want to make a pitch for Prop 61? I’m a little skeptical.
http://votersedge.kqed.org/en/ca/ballot/election/area/42/measures/measure/2024?id=statewide-42-ca#elected-appointed-officials-Yes
$109 million raised to oppose it?? Holy shit.
I figure it’s a chance to impose controls on some pharma market excesses, and even if it doesn’t quite work it would force a legislative patch, the end result of which will be better than what we have today.
This. Also, it’s a step towards public option concepts and towards mass-buying-power.
Harder for special interests to juice sale prices.
That was an amazing catch by the Seahawk while holding hands with the Bill next to him.
I think the mic in Philly just caught Barack telling Hillary that the presidential seal was going to be permanently on her lectern soon.
The endorsement from Jon Bon Jovi should wrap it up for Hillary.
Not unless he’s a bigger star than Scott Baio
Think I’m just going to vote how SPUR tells me to on San Francisco’s 22 propositions.
i voted yes on D. Newsom is a product of the appointment, and i am petty and think that all mayors are bad.
I also don’t want ed to appoint Jane’s replacement (smiley face)
Team Jane left door hangers at my house twice in the last week. Poor individual targeting, but good neighborhood targeting.
Romney’s on the board in New Hampshire.
Lily has 8 grandparents (American, Italian, Canadian, Slovenian, English, Scottish, German, and Plutonium) so I have to respect the “at least 4”, but WTF.
How do people have more than 4 grandparents? I’m confused.
Her parents’ parents all divorced and re-partnered.
And if we her parents now separated and re-partnered she could get 4 more – which raises the nice distinction between a step-grandparent (your grandparent’s new partner) and a grand-step-parent (your step-parent’s parent).
I knew if I wanted a girlfriend, I was gonna have to get in that end zone.
damn, my childrens children could vote.
Until Milo introduces you to his new hot immigrant girlfriend…
Just voted here in NYC. Lines not too bad
Lack of lines is not a good sign.
I’m not too worried about NY.
Not for New York, but if poor turnout there were reflected elsewhere we’d be in trouble.
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
I voted two weekends ago at the *only* early voting location for Hamilton County (Cincinnati). It was actually fine when I went (15-20 minutes), but this past weekend it sounds like it was pretty crazy.
FU Jon Husted
In California I used to take an absentee ballot because the lines would be too long before or after work. Here the early voting is convenient with daily voting at the courthouse and a schedule of satellite locations around the county. Through Saturday, 51% of our county’s active voters had early-voted in person and another 10% had turned in absentee ballots.
I stopped on the way to work and dropping off the younger at school. Brought him with me. They gave him a voting sticker.
I let him feed in one of the ballot cards and explained that this is where they read in your vote and change it to what they actually need it to be
Thanks, and go As.
wait tracker and more.
https://projects.propublica.org/electionland/
Says it all.
She was writing in Michelle Obama.
Plagiarizing Michelle’s ballot.
Didn’t one of the sons also break NY law by tweeting his ballot?
Same one
Pretty sure it was the other one.
As far as I can tell, you’re both right.
OK, this is a weird confession. from my office, i have a direct line of sight to a polling place. the ladies, they keep coming in and out of there. and… they’re ALL looking fine. every single one of them. young, old, cute, ugly. everybody just has an air.
and i’m sitting here feeling like a creeper outside the women’s bathroom. i know it’s a private moment and they’re not dressed up for me and i should go mind my own business. but…
I KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THEY WERE DOING IN THERE.
(and it’s hot.)