I know you mostly don’t care. But the $0.20 Golden Pick-6 carryover pool will exceed $1 million tomorrow, unless someone won it today (full disclosure: I did not). For a 20-cent bet you pick the winners of the last six races on the card at Golden Gate Fields. Even a favorite-heavy slate usually pays $50 or more on a 20-cent bet; longshots, bigger payout (yesterday’s was over $300).
But here’s the trick: The full progressive wagering pool is not paid out until only one bettor hits the Pick-6. So, if you have a “chalk†ticket someone else will too, and though it would still be profitable, it’s not quit-my-job profitable. This creates a weird betting dynamic which incentivizes longshot risk taking. For example, my (losing) ticket today mixed one favorite, a couple middle-ish picks and two longshots. 24 combos at 20-cents each, total bet $4.80.
So, anyone hoping to take the $1 million needs to be both correct and unique. I find this fun, because you have to weigh crowd behavior against handicapping to craft a bet strategy. What’s more, because most horse wagering is online, the huge Golden Pick-6 pool is well known, attracting more bettors, and making it less likely that anyone will win on any one day.
But here’s the other trick: the meet at GGF ends Sunday June 12. If the carryover pool is still alive, it must be paid out, and all bettors with a correct Pick-6 ticket will share the payout. So from now through Saturday 6/11 you’re incentivized to pick longshots, but on Sunday 6/12 the dynamic changes, and a correct Pick-6 ticket even if shared should return more than the odds on a 6-event parlay would suggest. I am interested in hearing what you probability and game theory mavens think.
A’s play tonight at 7:05. Oakland’s Throwin Samoan is two starts off his maiden win and eligible to improve. He’s opposed by BeardyMcRighthander, who has impressed with three wins in five starts, most recently stretching out impressively to seven furlongs on the grass in Detroit six days ago.
"Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
No winners today, over $1 million tomorrow, biggest active horse payout in the world.
God I fucking hate Journey.
On June 12th are you allowed to make multiple bets to increase your fraction of the $1M?
Assuming 6 horses per race, covering all the permutations costs $9331.20, so you’d want to be 1 of 100 winners or fewer to break even. But if you can make multiple bets, you could load up on the favorite-heavy slates to increase your fractional share of the pot.
Sure, you could bet $1 and win 5x more than the person who bet 20 cents.
For the last meet of the year the cards will probably be closer to 7 horses per race on average, so $23,529.80 to cover all bets.
Today the numbers of entrants are 7,7,10,10,9,11, so it would be almost $100K to cover all possibilities at the minimum bet.
I wonder if anyone will actually do that on the last day.
On any other day, it’s still potentially profitable if only one person does it, but a sure loser if two people do.
Nice escape act by Manaea there.
And another one. Assist by Country Joe West.
Gotta love Omar Vizquel.
Fuck all the rest of those guys though.
It’s OK, a two run deficit is nothing.
I was feeling sick because we cant hit, but then I remembered That the motor city kitties are playing next level Team Dynamite nowadays.
Ha, don’t know if I’ve seen that before.
Nice of Victor Martinez to languish around the plate for no good reason except to interfere.
I am fond of the outdoor survival genre of TV shows. History Channel has this one called Alone which is just spectacular. Highly recommended.
So, I guess our bright side is that, when we are bad, at least it’s quick?
TWHS
Ray dropping knowledge. Davis is capable of hitting a HR.
Oh Billy…this is a big one!
Second straight week of Friday night tech bridge lines…my LA party life is getting out of control.
Guys, I’m not 100% sure we are World Series favorites at this point.
Thanks, and go As.
Maybe not favorites, but at least we’re not the A’s.
But the payout would be huge!
100-1 today, five other teams less likely than us!
No winners today, up to $1.25M heading into the last four days of racing. 6-15 tickets have been hitting per day; seems likely the pot will roll over to the mandatory payout Sunday. Worth a play.
Um, so how do I win?
Thanks, and go As.
Any advice for Sunday?
wear pants.
Thanks, and go As.
Based on my record since I wrote the above, the best approach is to light one’s money on fire, and at least save the time spent on futile handicapping.
BTW the race card for Sunday is huge, twelve races in all. Races 7-12 will comprise the Pick-6. With entries showing 10-8-7-11-8-14 horses, barring scratches it would cost $137,984 to cover all chances.
How about the Belmont?
I’m not settled yet. Exaggerator will probably get bet down to near even money odds. He’s the best horse in the race by far, but that price sucks, the pace and distance and workload are all questions, and there’s some other horses I like. Governor Malibu, Destin, Suddenbreakingnews for sure. Still considering Stradivari and Lani. Avoiding closers in favor of stalkers for the most part.
The carryover has rolled past $1.4 million. With expected new action tomorrow, “officials for The Stronach Group”{?) say the final payout pool will exceed $4 million. Starts with Race 7, 4:02 est post time.
So $1.4M carryover, and $2.6M from new wagers.
The house take is about 24%, so that would be about $3.4M in wagers.
Thanks to the carryover, expected value for each dollar bet is 4/3.4 = $1.17.
After the scratches, it would only cost $82,320 to cover the whole field.
I’ve shelled out $19.20, using the highly scientific “names I like” method of picking horses.
At $1.17 EV you’d be stupid NOT to bet your life savings!
How many legs did you single on your ticket? I figure if I have the guts to single two legs I can add some broader choices in a couple others. The first and last legs (races 7 and 12) are really hard, since none of the horses have ever won before. In race 7 in fact 7 of the 10 entries have never raced before.
No singles. Three in the last race, two in the others.
My other horse racing consultants advise me that looking at sires is the best way to handicap these types of races, if you’re going to bother handicapping at all (which I do not).
I’m in for $86.40. Couldn’t bring myself to single any. Kept at least one of the ML faves in every race, plus some mid-range shots. One 15-1 horse. Races thus far today have mostly gone to faves.
Out in the second leg.
Out in the first.
Odd development: They made a late decision, for safety reasons, to switch Races 10 and 12 off the turf course, onto the main track. Pick-6 bettors still alive are give “ALL” on their tickets for races 10 and 12. Should dramatically boost the number of winners (and thus diminish the payout).
And after all the excitement, with two legs going ALL and another with 2 winners in a dead heat, the payout was a disappointing $146.16.
Ha. That’s a little misleading because presumably most people who hit it got paid multiple times, e.g. someone who had originally boxed 3 horses in each of those two races would get paid 9 times. Still not the 5 or 6 figures one might have hoped for though.