As some of you may know I’ve agreed to run the Oakland A’s during SB Nation’s Offseason Simulation which kicks off this Sunday. I’m intrigued by the position Beane finds himself this offseason: with some tinkering (like acquiring a SS) the A’s should contend in 2015. But after that it looks like a rebuild will be in order. One of the early stories has been whether or not Beane should trade Donaldson “before he gets expensive”. The A’s have flat out said that won’t happen.
Which is where I step in.
I have always believed that no matter how talented or productive a player is it is always possible, if not necessarily probable, that moving on from that player can improve the team. Josh Donaldson is a huge trade chip but just how good is he?
I did a crude estimate of his projected value over the next 4 years based on his MLBTR estimated salary of $4.5 million and his FG Steamer projection of 5.5 fWAR in 2015.
| Year | WAR x Win $$$ = Value | Salary (Millions) | Value Surplus |
| 2015 | 5.5 x 6.0 = 33.0 | 4.5 | 28.5 |
| 2016 | 5.0 x 6.5 = 32.5 | 8.5 | 24.0 |
| 2017 | 4.5 x 7.0 = 31.5 | 14.5 | 17.0 |
| 2018 | 4.0 x 7.5 = 30.0 | 20.5 | 9.5 |
| Total Production | Total Salary | Total Value Surplus |
| 19.0 fWAR | $48 Million | 79 Million |
Donaldson is an amazing asset to the A’s organization if he’s playing in Oakland. He also offers potential to completely re-shape the franchise if he’s playing anywhere else in 2015. He is at the tail end of his peak age years and we can expect to see some performance decline no later than 2016. Just over 1/3 of his projected trade value is tied up in his 2015 season therefore any trade return we might see after the 2015 season would be significantly less than what we could expect from a deal that took place in the next few weeks.
The question is whether or not I can find a trade partner willing to part with the significant amount of young talent I consider necessary to compensate me for the lost production and surplus value. My greatest obstacle is that the bulk of the people I’ll be working with/competing against have attitudes that reflect the real industry standard: that prospects are worth their weight in platinum. I think the only way I can get past that is to focus on contending teams with limited budgets and use my budget flexibility to enhance their willingness to part with their young talent; because as badly as people want to hoard their prospects they are equally desperate to get out from under bad contracts.
I’ve been given a $91 million budget in the Sim and I have ~ $72 million committed in salary. If I trade away Donaldson, Shark and Kazmir I free up an additional $25 million. Rather than put that cash in the bank I’ll apply it towards eating bad contracts or paying down the salaries of my trade assets. I won’t go over budget so I’m not cutting into the profit margin on the business side and I won’t pick up any bad money that extends beyond 2016. This way if I’m winning in 2015 and/or 2016 I’m doing so in spite of the money I’m spending and entirely because of the players I got in return on my trades. Then, in 2017, I’ll be clear of all the bad money contracts and will be able to afford to pay any necessary arbitration dollars or target FA pieces to push the team over the top.
Why do this now instead of waiting a year? Simply stated, Donaldson is at his high point in terms of value plus both Shark and Kazmir will be free agents after 2015. I’d be lucky to get half the return if I wait a year to start the rebuild. So if I can find the young talent I want I’m going to trigger the fire sale.
If I can’t then I’m just going to have to go with Plan B.
Do you have teams and/or returns in mind for each of the 3, or are you going to just make them available and see who comes asking about em?
Thanks, and go As.
Cleveland is a prime candidate for Donaldson, with me eating Swisher’s contract as part of the deal. The pitching market in flux so nothing definite there at this time.
so what kind of long term debt can you get into? Can you sign hanley for 6 years? Beane can’t and won’t, but if you have $20M this year…
I’m going for $30 million this year.
I get the instinct, but my view is that our farm system is a complete shambles, and the only way we recover is by failing our way into years of high draft picks (a la TB) and using those picks well. I don’t think we get enough from those three guys to be better than a .500 team in the foreseeable future, which is a deathtrap for a small-budget franchise.
Given that, I think plan B followed by a bunch of time in the wilderness is more attractive.
Plan A is looking grim.
And has anyone heard if O’Flaherty’s arm fell off or is he better?
Pretty sure they said he was fine right after the game we really needed him in when he couldnt pitch. (At least thats how I remember it.)
Me too. But I couldn’t find a source article saying that so I nixed a trade deal for and OF. I ultimately did move him to someone who was willing to gamble on the elbow.
What’s Plan C…we all start following Professional Field Hockey instead of baseball?
MLS. Earthquakes.
Thanks, and go As.
Supposedly the Dodgers want to ditch one of Crawford/Kemp/Ethier.
They all make hella money though. Kemp would still look good in LF imo.
Thanks, and go As.
My CC crush reignites!
15:$20.5M, 16:$20.75M, 17:$21M
How much do LA need to realistically eat in order to get something resembling an actual baseball player in return for him?
Thanks, and go As.
75% at least.
LA pays us half the contract. We send them a bag of baseballs.
Who says no?
Thanks, and go As.
Not me. $10M for a 2WAR guy is a bit below market and I still think he has some upside from 2 WAR. But I’m on record as irrational about this.
He was 2.9 and 2.5 the last couple years in 116 and 105 games, I think he’s a 3 WAR guy easily if he’s able to play 145 games.
Thanks, and go As.
Was looking at BBref, but I’m glad they’re the lower number.
Not sure you can ignore durability issues, particularly as he hits mid-30s, but I agree he has that talent.
I wouldn’t count on him hitting 145. I think you shoot for 100-125 and if you’re happy with what you project from that, great. If not, pass. I’d guess you’d see something between 2 and 2.5 WAR next year at the top end.
Well, for a bag of balls, sure, why not. They’d probably say no though, unless they were desperate to get some money back in order to use it elsewhere.
I believe the idea is that they have a glut of OFs ready to play and 3 dudes in Kemp/Ethier/Crawford that are taking up spots.
Thanks, and go As.
In the Sim Kemp got dealt with $16 million annual as part of the deal.
For the life of the contract?
I’d take that.
Thanks, and go As.
I need a little help. I remember an interview either by Lew or with Beane discussing Lew in which it was said ownership has been willing to give Beane more funds if he needed them. Am I crazy and does anyone have the link to the story in question?
Last year the A’s started with ~$82 million in payroll. They ended up pushing it to just over $88 million by the end of season. The guy running the Sim gave most teams a 10% payroll bump but he based the A’s numbers on their Opening Day payroll, meaning I have a $91 million budget. If the bump were based on the end-of-season numbers I’d have a $97 million budget. With a $97 million budget I’d be able to afford one of Scherzer or Lester plus strengthen my bench. My 2015 rotation would be Scherzer/Lester, Shark, Kazmir, Gray and Floyd, with Chavez and Pomeranz in the bullpen for depth… although I heard someone mention Pom might have one remaining option.
So can I please get some FKing help with a link to the article?
I believe that was one of Beane’s interviews on **
Thanks, and go As.
I don’t remember a specific article, but it’s been mentioned multiple times.
Floyd? Like Gavin Floyd?
Thanks, and go As.
yeah… it was a good deal.. 1y for 5.5
Yep.
As in, the guy who had TJS in 2012 and then broke his elbow in 2014. I signed him to a 1 year/$5.5 million contract. He’s already throwing at near full strength… and with Chad Billingsley signing a big league deal at $5 million…
Huh. Is all this posted yet?
Thanks, and go As.
At Royals Review.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2014/11/9/7170679/sb-nation-mlb-2014-offseason-simulation-project
ricky weeks? Not a bad gamble. Don’t think he would in real life
Huh.
That (the whole sim thing) is a neat idea executed terribly IMO.
Thanks, and go As.
Speaking of executions…
After Lester signed with Milwaukee for 7 years/$192 million plus a $20 million vesting 8th year I decided to bump my offer to Scherzer.
6 years/$186 million guaranteed with a 7th year vesting option worth $30 million. Total possible value: $204 million over 7 years.
And I’m doing it with a budget under $100 million in 2015.
I have no clue what happens in 2017.
holy crap lol
Thanks, and go As.
A couple transactions to highlight:
Braves trade OF Justin Upton, OF B.J. Upton, P Craig Kimbrel, P Aaron Norcraft plus $9 million to the Yankees for OF Brett Gardner, P Michael Pineda, OF Aaron Judge, P Manny Banuelos and SS Jorge Mateo
DAMN.
Mariners sign IF Jed Lowrie to a 3 year $24 million contract with a $8 million club option and a $3 million buyout
I would love Lowrie at this price.
Athletics trade OF Josh Reddick and P Ryan Cook to the Indians for IF Jose Ramirez
About right.
Somehow I think Lowrie will get more than 8M per year.
Thanks, and go As.
I hate Reddick and think that he will be hurt/ineffective for most of his career so I jumped when grover told me about the deal for Ramirez.
How can we get Starlin Castro from the Cubs?
Thanks, and go As.
Sure we’ll just trade them one of our ultra awesome short stop prospects. We have one, right?
It would’ve cost a lot. Not quite a metric shit ton, but close.
damn metric system
Thanks, and go As.
So the A’s just signed Max Scherzer to a 6 year/$200 million guaranteed contract with a vesting 7th year option and an 8th year team controlled option.
The rotation:
Scherzer
Shark
Gray
Kazmir
Floyd
Total payroll for 2015: $94.38 million
I also traded Punto, Ynoa and Maxwell for a RH OFer named L.J. Hoes. I found a good defensive SS who’s under team control for the next 6 years.
And Mark Ellis accepted a minor league deal with ST invite to come back to Oakland.
Hoes is already a great favorite in the bleachers.
now we need a player named boats
Thanks, and go As.
I’d prefer someone named Broes. He can bat in front of Hoes. Always.
Just pick up Swisher and one other guy he’s friends with.
Is the theory that merchandise sales from LJ will cover the Scherzer contract?
That’s a pretty solid blaze-of-glory setup. Did you give them Punto in lieu of receiving some cash, or were they stupid enough to want him?
Honestly… thank god for Houston’s commitment to be a big league team in 2015!
I went fishing, sending emails and asking for a RH OF org. bat and said Punto was the chip I could spend. But the Astros had been making some unusual deals so I sweetened the pot for them by adding Ynoa to the mix. They originally refused to take Punto but asked about Hoes for Ynoa. I figured, why not. I said I’d be willing to do Hoes/Ynoa when they asked if I’d include an extra prospect. I said only if they took Punto.
They wanted Maxwell enough to eat Punto’s $2.75 million. In fairness, their infield bench was a little weak.
But thank you Houston!
No way they’d do that irl.
True.
But I wanted to show it could be done.
If I could do it all over again I’d have gone different.
If we’re going big ticket items, give me Hanley/Tulo or give me death.
Nice knowing you…
I’m having trouble following the mock trades, but at least you have reading about baseball and the A’s without feeling a total sense of doom.
Don’t get me wrong. I still feel grim about things.
It’s still too soon for me.
Tis over.
My summary, if you are so interested.
Ike Davis if the pirates release him? Or are we counting on Jaso for lefty first base?
Moss is lefty.
and a left fielder
allegedly
Thanks, and go As.
Worth a ST invite?
He’d probably enjoy moving to Nashville.
I thought the rockhounds were in Midland?
Does Stockton have an airport he could fly into from a LA or SF home?