As much as last night sucked, I don’t even know how you fix this roster for 2015. There’s obvious talent there. But enough? I’m not sure. We have about 10 million to spend this offseason (assuming we have similar payroll in 2015 to 2014).
SP
Gray
Shark
Kazmir
Pomeranz
Chavez
In an ideal world, you get a McCarthy cheap or some other backup plan. There’s not enough money and bigger issues to work on. This will still be a good unit.
BP
Doo
EOF
Cook
Otero
Abad
FRod//Savery/Whoever
This was supposed to be our biggest strength this year. We got what we thought was a serviceable-to-good closer, a fantastic set up man, and an elite set up man for half a year and added it to a very good pen already. I think these guys were the reason we under-performed our Pythag. They actually put up reasonable numbers in sum, but they had so many blowups.
And much as I love Doo, that’s three straight “postseasons” he’s had a meltdown. I can’t go back before 2001, but from what I can tell, Mariano had 3 meltdowns his entire postseason career. Unfair comparison? Of course, but damn it, Doo, you’re supposed to be elite.
Again, I think we could use quite a bit of help here, but there are bigger fish to fry. This time, maybe the pen can decide to cluster their unluckiness at better times.
Outfield:
Coco LF
Gentry/Fuld CF
Reddick RF
Coco needs the rehab. We have him for 2/22 starting next year. We’ve got to squeeze 2 good years out of him. Play him in a less demanding position and give him a ton of time off. Good defensively, and when you’re on a budget, that’s what you do. Bigger fish to fry.
I thought after 2012, the only way we would continue to be good was Cespedes and Reddick became 5 WAR talents. Neither did, but we somehow competed anyway. In 2015, the A’s sure could use a 5 WAR in RF though. I’m much more optimistic about Reddick than I have been since 1st half 2012. Maybe not 5 WAR, but it would sure make our outlook much rosier.
3b
Donaldson
Oh, that’s why we competed the last two years.
1b
Moss
Blanks
Moss enters his 3rd year of arb after getting 4.1M last year. His second half might push down his salary, but he probably makes 7-8 million. You hope it was injuries that made him bad and he’ll be healthy next year. We’re not getting a 30 HR bat elsewhere.
2b/SS
?
?
Found the fish to fry. There has been one good thing about Lowrie sucking this last second half: he’s back in our price range. If you told me at midseason a 3/$21M offer to Lowrie wouldn’t be laughed at, I would have written the contract myself. Lowrie probably draws a visceral reaction from you right now, but dude was 3.5 WAR last year. Move him to 2b and hope it was injuries.
At SS, we need to look outside the org. Hardy will get way too much money for a 32 year old who can’t really hit any more. Hanley is great but 30 and would handcuff us for too long. Much as I would love him, it’s not happening. I think we need to get a young SS from the Cubs. Starlin Castro. I would trade a SP not named Gray to get him. I haven’t fleshed this out yet, but Pomeranz+Olson+Nunez for Castro would be my starting point. I actually quite like Pom, but we can find a SP much easier than a SS.
C
?
Norris/Vogt
IDBISV any more. He might hit acceptably for a catcher or he might have returned to pumpkin form. We shall see. Norris gets half a season to prove it was injuries and that he wasn’t exposed. Otherwise, get him learning 1b I guess. I probably re-sign Soto as insurance or go after a defense-first catcher. It’s all the rage these days, you know? Plus there’s the PTSD.
DH
Jaso
If Jaso ever puts on a mask again, I honestly think the A’s should be sued. It makes our lineup a lot better, but we’re not a football team; I want Jaso to be able to function at 40. Let him focus on the one thing he does amazing. Hit. Let’s just hope this plan isn’t already too late.
So there’s my exciting plan. We bring back the whole team including Lowrie and Soto. And we trade for Starlin Castro. And we hope that these miserable two months really were injuries. Because if they weren’t? Well, we’re going to be a seller next deadline.
In the SP department, we get Griffin and Parker back next year. What that’s worth remains to be seen, but with any luck one or the other will be back to form.
I don’t want to see Lowrie or Callaspo ever again. I’d love it if we could find some great middle infielder in Japan, but that didn’t work out so well last time.
Not sure I’d rely on either. At best they’d be back mid-season, but this is Parker’s #2 and Griffin was a #4 or #5 guy at best before the TJS. Not sure you can expect much more than that.
I think as they start to come back they give Billy his reasoning-right or wrong-to trade sonny and start the blow up.
I would like to go even younger than Castro for SS. Do the Cubs have any top flight minor league SS…someone had to say it at some point, right?
He would have been called up in September if he wasn’t traded. Would he have done well? Who knows?
He would have sat on the bench next to Parrino and watched Lowrie alligator arm everything.
Given his injuries, I’m not so sure he would have. Or am I unremembering that and assigning it from someone else?
He had some, but honestly I didnt pay attention production wise after he left.
He had some early in the year but once he came back in June, he was healthy for the rest. When Lowrie was out, he absolutely would have had people clamoring for him, and possibly Beane would have called him up.
Doolittle makes me nervous…our middle infielders make me nauseous.
They need to put one of those house-sized fumigation tents over the middle infield area at the Coliseum. It would have the added advantage of hiding the Raiders logo on the grass that’s going down today.
No one is going to be seeing that logo in person by week #7 anyway…I can see some friends and family only sized crowds coming up for SparanoBall.
I heard they’ve sold out to the no-blackout point for the whole season. Not that people have to show up just because they bought the tickets, of course.
Thanks for the look ahead, vignette.
I only just worked up the nerve to come back to FK, but I was hoping for a rosterbation thread and vignette didn’t let me down.
I’m probably be reactionary. But is it time to end the Beane era? I mean, if his shit doesn’t work in the playoffs. Maybe it’s time to find someone who’s shit does.
I can’t imagine that happening as long as Fisher and Wolff own the team.
Doesn’t Beane own a piece too?
No
Yeah, Beane still does way more with a small budget team than anyone else
I have that same reaction at least twice a month during the season, and at every postseason exit. But the alternative might be worse (i.e. a GM that gets us shitty players, period, rather than one that gets & pisses on players that are at least fun to watch for a year or so).
It wouldn’t be ended involuntarily. From his perspective, 17 years in the GM chair is a very long tenure; Sabean at 18 years is the longest and Cashman also has 17 years. O’Dowd, Dombrowski and Melvin are the only others with at least 10 years. So he could be thinking about another project, and at 52 he has plenty of time to see a long-term project through. The flip side of that is that 52 isn’t particularly old for a GM and he has unfinished business in this job.
Sigh… I know. But even after a two days, I just kind of need a change in this team, from the top down. I know he’s good, I know he’s not going away. But I kind of see him as the Jeter of GMs.
Jeter’s got a few World Series wins, though.
On the other hand, I wonder what each team would give Beane if he did a farewell tour.
Beane only has that one.
Thanks, and go As.
Don’t worry guys, SS is taken care of.
Thanks, and go As.
It would actually cost less to pay him and have him not show up.
I don’t have ESPN insider– what is this “Donaldson trade looming in A’s overhaul” horseshit?
This is literally all it says:
Thanks, and go As.
“probably” is ridiculous.
In other words Fuck you Olney.
pretty much.
Thanks, and go As.
Pure clickbait, and a pretty terrible advertisement for “Insider.”
Apt words. And yet, if Beane does decide to to blow up the roster Donaldson will be his biggest trade chip. Lots of teams would have interest but the Red Sox leap to mind as the probable front runner.
Everything Beane did says he thought this year was their last, best shot. (Yeah, he forgot about the middle infield.) If Beane wants to tear it down to avoid getting stuck as a middling team, trading Donaldson makes sense. He’s the most valuable chip, even more than Gray.
But I don’t think he does it, because trading Donaldson would require a wholesale rebuild, and Beane has never wanted to go there. Not all the way.
“Half assing” a rebuild requires too much to go right in order to succeed.
The flip side is, going rebuild means he gets max trade value from Shark and Kaz. Teams are going to pay more this offseason for those two pitchers because they’ll have the option to make qualifying offers to them and collect draft pick compensation.
I could see that NEXT off season, but not this off season. Only way it happens now is if he believes we won’t be competitive.
His “history as general manager is clear”: He doesn’t want to lose 100 games. If he trades Donaldson and Gray, that tells me he’s (cough) “all-in” on a demolition and rebuild.
That’s actually something that bothers me about him. I can appreciate that he hates to lose. Hell, I hate watching them lose. But sometimes the best way to win is to lose big, particularly the way the system is set up. After this season, I’m kind of ready to watch them lose back to back 100+ game seasons. Grab those first picks. Then rev that shit back up. Of course now is probably the absolute worst time to do something like that since we hit 2 million for the first time. Man, sometimes I really hate the way MLB is built.
Earlier this season I was wondering about what it would take to sign Donaldson to an extension and I convinced myself that the best thing to do is just keep him through arb and then let him walk, since he wasn’t young when he first came up and he’ll be like 32 by the time he becomes a free agent. Of course, his arb years will be expensive…
Serious question:
Is there a downside to signing him through the arb years? gives him an atta boy which he seems like he needs. also lets him get the one big payday.
could be cheaper than going year to year
You are locked into a player regardless of performance or injury. A’s haven’t had the best luck with recent pre arb extensions (Anderson, Cahill, Harden, Crosby, etc).
From today’s fangraphs piece on the A’s
I loved the “he’s older than you think” line.
Thanks, and go As.
“might have been”
Yeah.
That was unfinished “That would be stupid awesome return to pull the trigger on that.”
Sorry, I like Lowrie. Except yesterday. And some other times last month.
I liked him last year. But I have been driven crazy by him this year. Especially since the finger injury. I know a few have said his numbers are consistent, but I swear every time he came up and a situation demanded x, he did y. Last night was the perfect example-he needed to put that damn bat on his shoulder and get walked in by a pitcher who was obvious wilting under postseason pressure. Instead he swings at the first pitch. And this is a guy who always waits around-heck I think I could imitate his “you called that pitch down the middle a strike? I’m Jed LOWRIE” look right now.
I like him at 3/21. I just don’t see him signing that deal. Midway through the season I thought a QO to him would be great. Have him at 2nd and someone younger and better at short.
But with two holes to fill, I don’t know what to say.
The starting pitching should be a strength. I think Chavez and Pomeranz will be good. I would not expect Parker or Griffin to be good, but they are decent injury insurance. I could see them signing a SP though just because that’s the one area where they could potentially find a good FA for cheap.
Obviously middle infield is a big problem. Might not be crazy to make a qualifying offer to Lowrie. He’s good, they have nothing at SS, and overpaying for one year seems better than having to sign him for 3, which would not be ideal… Asdrubel Cabrera is an option, but he seems to be a terrible SS. If they do that I’d want him at 2B with Lowrie at SS.
I expect some sort of bullpen addition.
I think Norris/Vogt at C is a strength of the team.
They need a RH outfielder who can hit.
It’s a good team, and I would pick them as the third best team in the AL next year, but after the Angels and Mariners…
I wonder about both team’s pitching. And Pujols is another year older and I suspect we’ll start seeing that decline. I’m not disagreeing about the order, though I question whether we’ll be the third best team in the AL. Or just the third best team in the AL West.
The Angels need to find a first baseman. Pujols can be a strong contributor, maybe fringe All-Star type, if he DHs. This year he started 116 games at 1B and 43 at DH; they need to reverse that or a little more.
Yeah, I should say that it’s the *start* of the decline, but not fall off the cliff Moss second half decline. We’ve been kind of seeing hints of it since he joined the Angels. I just think by the end of next year we’ll start seeing him as not the threat he once was, which is still, sadly, pretty good nonetheless.
Am I think only one who doesn’t think Trout will continue to be the world beater/MVP type much longer (within the next 3 or 4 years)? I’m guessing yes. But I kind of wonder how much of his skill set is built on speed and how much that’ll start to decline as injuries start occurring. I’m not suggesting he’d less than All-Star level, but just not the mega star he’s been.
He won’t play at this level for the length of his contract, but I see no reason to think he won’t be a 7-8 win player for the next five years. He just turned 23.
I could see him settling in as a more classic slugger type in the next few years, rather than the 5 tool marvel he is today. It looks like his speed is already declining. He’s still going to be a great slugger even if he does that though
Agreed here. I also see some of that prima donna becoming an issue. He already gawks and stares at umps too much, it wont get better as he thinks he deserves more respect.
The thing that I want to see with slegnA is how long these other guys are around. It sounds stupid but I will fight against a poo holes and Trout. But it’s the Kendrick and Aybar A’s killers that make it so tough. I swear they have both been there for a decade or 2 right?
Aybar is 30, Howie is 31. They both debuted with the Angels in 06. Aybar is signed for the next two years at 8.5M / year. Kendrick is signed through 2015 only, at 9.5M.
Enjoyable thing that I learned from the Angels page on Cot’s Contracts:
This is the last year of Vernon though. Assuming they pick up Street’s $7M option, they have $14 million to spend in the offseason minus however much Beckham and Freese get in their last years of arb (Freese made 5 M, Beckham 4.5 this year). So probably ~7M assuming they DFA Beckham.
And assuming they don’t raise their payroll which they probably do.
Right. It’s just enjoyable in a backwards-looking way.
Maybe they resign him.
They are up against the revenue sharing cutoff (or whatever that’s called) and apparently don’t want to go over. They could probably still pick up a good sp though.
I could see the Angels being not that good, although it would be scary if they signed a good SP. The biggest strength of their team when they started playing well was their bullpen, and those can always turn bad… Starting pitching looks really dicey.
The Mariners pitching is really scary, and their lineup has some really shitty parts that can be easily upgraded.
I’m not sure how much budget they have/are willing to spend, but how shitty would it be if the slegnA signed Lester?
he is going to the braves
Dodgers.
Mariners.
Red Sox.
MYSTERY TEAM!!
Inside sources!!!
Gun to my head, I say Cubs right now.
ditto. without the gun
regarding Doolittle. I think the plan was to have him set up, work on the secondary pitch, be ready to take over when johnson got flipped for fuld. hopefully he shows up in february with a real slider or change up
Needs one. If he doesn’t stay up in the zone with that fast ball he’s hittable. And I have no idea why Norris keeps calling it down.
Easier to catch and to possibly try and throw out a runner since he knows he has little chance otherwise. (Sarcasam font…sort of)
There is literally no reason that someone hasn’t showed him a cutter. YOU JUST CHANGE THE GRIP ON THE FUCKING FASTBALL
Thanks, and go As.
To be honest, as long as Doolittle’s primary success comes from getting batters to chase the high fastball, he’ll never progress much beyond what he is now – and that’s still a pretty solid pitcher. Problem is, as nice as his K/BB ratio is, just like his success it’s driven by hitters not being able to lay off the elevated heat. He’s got to get at least that one secondary pitch to a level of effectiveness that he can use it in any situation, any count, and keep people guessing at all times.
I think one pivotal issue is Moss. He has a hip problem. He needs tricky-sounding surgery that ends basketball players’ careers. Then again, maybe he’ll be fine. He certainly seemed fine last night.
The Moss of the season’s first half was a deserving All-Star, a frightening power hitter who proved he can hit lefties too. For a while, I thought the Donaldson-Moss-Cespedes combo rivaled Trout-Pujols-Hamilton. Sure, Trout was the best player in the game, but the A’s trio was at least as productive overall.
The Moss of the season’s second half was a blank spot in the lineup.
Which Moss will we get next year? If it’s the second, it’s hard for me to see the A’s as a legitimate contender.
I know I’m not ready for this, so why am I in this thread?
But the funny thing is, I look at that proposed starting rotation and think it could be pretty good.
The relievers? I’m less sure there, but that’s always an unknown from year to year.
Then I get to the lineup and think, “Everyone was playing hurt.” Coco was hurt basically all season. Shoot, by the end, it seemed like Reddick was the only starter who was both healthy and consistently productive.
Donaldson’s a stud, a team leader. I don’t think you even consider trading him. If Moss comes back and can play, that’s two power hitters in the middle of the lineup. Coco can get healthy. Reddick may have figured things out. I thought he looked better at the end of the season than he did in early 2012, when I always worried about his looping, going-for-a-homer swing.
But then I remember the last two months, the gaping holes in the lineup, the likelihood that guys like Stephen Vogt will never have their pre-injury runs of success again, the many missing pieces on a team that must face the slegnA and Mariners. And the collapse. How many teams just turn it around after an el foldo like that? Yeah, I know the Red Sox did, just last year.
Besides, it seems like this conversation is premature because we don’t know Beane’s assessment of the team. Does he see a team that can be tweaked with shrewd acquistions and better luck? Or does he see a flawed team that is unlikely to contend unless everything breaks their way? Everything he’s done suggests he thought the window was closing, and the July trades make the team less competitive next season. I’m not even totally sure how I feel.
I just know that the team on the field in August and September wasn’t a good one. Was that all the byproduct of injuries and crappy luck? Or was it a team that has gone south, and has self-imposed limitations that require a rebuilding effort?
The team needs an influx of new blood this off season to wash away the stank of sewage.
See I’m not sure it was all-in this year. We still have one more. Yeah, no Lester. And no Lowrie (maybe). No Gregerson. No Hammel. The mortgage the future move was for Shark. Cespedes was throw 2 WAR into this year instead of next. While two wins is a lot on a playoff team, it’s not the difference between playoffs and rebuilding. Next year when we lose Kazmir, Jaso, and Shark while Moss is a year older is the real expiration date.
I’m bullish ( or is it bearish?) on moss.
I think he might be done if he has that surgery in the offseason.
Thanks, and go As.
But he hit two HR in the last game!
Bearish.
You’re bearish. I don’t know.
Maybe you need to change your name to bull15. Maybe your name is causing our problem.
The other option is to trade away Kazmir. We get rid of $14 million and can address a need, plus have some more money to spend. But if you want to go for it next year, you have to find a team willing to trade ML-ready hitting for pitching. And to get ML-ready hitting it’s likely not going to save you money or be exceedingly risky given our ability to scout hitting.
How much is Kazmir really worth? He’s had two pretty good seasons, but tailed off at the end of this one, has a history of falling apart, and will be another year older.
Fangraphs’ look at the 2015 A’s.
Re: some comments above: What Doolittle does works great, no reason to change it. He was somewhat worse after coming back which is a little concerning, but no reason to worry about his repertoire. He was dominating. The problem is sometimes but not that often he gives up hits?
How about this: non-tender Jaso, throw a bunch of money at Victor Martinez, find a cheap ss who is a plus fielder but terrible hitter.
If we’re talking plus fielding, terrible hitting SS, Parrino’s already on the roster. And I’m not sure that Doolittle was fully recovered from his intercostal injury. I think when he’s healthy, he’s as lights out as you want in the back of your bullpen. I’m not worried about him either
Parrino is not a good fielder.
I think there’s absolutely reason for Doolittle to work further on his repertoire. If you’re not trying to improve on what you’ve got, rest assured others are trying to improve to deal with it.
I can agree with that, but I dont think he is going to fall off of a cliff if he doesn’t nail it down in the offseason. Everyone should always be working to fix their flaws and be a step ahead.
I don’t think he’ll fall off a cliff, but these five words should begin any opposing scouting report on him:
“Don’t chase the high heat.”
If hitters learn to resist the temptation and lay off that more often, he’s going to start walking more batters and get himself into situations where he has to bring the ball down, which will make him more hittable.
Hitters having trouble laying off high fastballs is pretty much a fundamental fact of baseball. I don’t think that scouting report was lost on any team the last couple years… Jake McGee does the exact same thing.
Sure, but some research earlier this season showed that’s almost the entire reason why Doolittle’s was so successful this year. He threw up even more than most do. Every so often you could see teams specifically forcing themselves to lay off it.
That same research showed that he was hitting the top of the strike zone a lot with that pitch as well.
That’s true.
Found the story, at least. Even he says he’s got to come up with something else for hitters to think about.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sean-doolittle-throwing-high-hard-and-historic/
I mean SOMEONE has to just tell him “here dude hold the ball like THIS and put pressure on THIS finger when you throw, now it’s a cutter.”
Thanks, and go As.
Bring back Russ Springer!
CALL ALAN EMBREE.
Thanks, and go As.
Victor Martinez seems like too much of a buy high to me. He’s a good hitter, but not as good as he seems this year.
Dude will be 36 and want at least 3 years. Pass.
He’ll be good next year, and everyone is getting traded next off-season.
People are talking about Vogt like his catching days are done, but I thought it was just that he couldn’t catch because of the foot ailment that he’s getting surgery for now. Is there reason to think that even post-surgery he won’t be able to catch?
I noticed that as well. I’m hoping it is just people who dont really know enough about the team and saw him stop catching and assumed that will continue.
Personally, I’m wondering if he was playing better than he really is. And if he is this good, was he this good because was catching less, or was he this good because he’s this good? If the former, then I kind of rather have him at first, allowing Moss (if he’s not dead or gone) to handle LF.
I need to stop thinking about this team.
The only guy who I feel confident about in the lineup is Donaldson. After that, it’s question marks or less.
Moss, as I discussed above, is pivotal. How serious is his hip problem and the upcoming surgery? Should the A’s be planning on him at all for next season? Do they dare hope for him to return to pre-injury form? He emerged as an unexpected star, the classic A’s signing, and was consistently good for 2 1/2 years. If he’s done, it’s hard to be optimistic.
Reddick looked quite good down the stretch, and wasn’t just trying to hit home runs. But do I trust him? Uh, he’s Josh Reddick. No.
After that, it gets worse.
Norris looked terrific early in the season. He was an adequate defensive catcher with pop in his bat. I know he was banged up after playing every day for months, and that undoubtedly contributed to his problems all around. I’m not ready to write him off as a platoon/DH/converted first baseman just yet. But contingency plans must be made.
Vogt is a hard one. He’s the best defensive catcher (not counting free agent Soto) on the roster, and had an unconscious first half. Then gravity set in, and then he was hurt. He could turn into a pumpkin, or fail to recover from his injury, or be unable to catch again. Who knows? But you can’t build your team around the guy.
Coco is another player where you don’t know what you will get. A player whose strength is his speed gets useless when he slows down or can’t use it. I assume his neck will be OK by the spring, but he can’t be counted on to play every day. Unfortunately, Coco has been a pivotal player on the offense and there’s no replacement in the offing. If he’s a fourth outfielder, that’s not good.
The middle infield is a wasteland. Signing Lowrie and making him a second baseman actually seems OK to me. That, of course, leaves the shortstop position open. Blecch.
I would try to sign Soto. He’s good defensively, and wasn’t a terrible hitter either.
The A’s have their usual long list of platoon parts that fit well when you had Donaldson, a healthy Coco and Moss, and Cespedes. But if it’s down to Donaldson, I’m not very excited about any of them.
I’m too tired to deal with the pitchers, which is just as well.
I think that keeping Reddick on the roster is a no brainer. He’s not going to be the centerpiece of the offense, but his defensive value makes him a pretty safe bet to be at least league average with more upside than bust potential. I guess the thing to worry about is that he has only averaged ~110 games over the past two seasons (but he was still over 2 WAR each year).
I realize that you’re trying to find *good* players for the roster, not just league average… but if we check fWAR for the 2014 A’s, they got to 88 wins with only one position player over 3 WAR (Donaldson, 6.4 WAR) and four more players in the 2-3 range (Norris, Reddick, Moss, Cespedes). The low hanging fruit of roster improvement is (as we’ve all discussed over and over) Sogard/Punto/Callaspo: 1004 PA, -0.6 WAR. If they managed to replace that with 1.5 seasons of league average play, it’s a 3.5 WAR swing — which is like replacing 2014 Reddick with Giancarlo. I admit that I don’t know exactly where we will get 1.5 league average middle infielders.
The other major spot for improvement is Coco, who had just 0.9 WAR in 536 PA. That’s a hard one obviously because he’s signed for a few more years and we’re all just hoping that he goes back to being his usual self.
I guess my bottom line is that, looking at the position player WAR (averaged across the good first half and bad second half), it doesn’t look too hard to replicate, and hopefully improve on, the 2014 production. It’s critically important that Donaldson stays good, of course. After the terrible second half, I also expect push back on the notion that WAR is the right thing to be considering, as opposed to “impact bats” or something like that. I would definitely listen to those arguments.
I’m just thinking out loud with nothing to back it up. By I’m wondering if WAR alone is enough. A player who’s 6 WAR in the first half and 0 WAR in the second is probably not terribly helpful if you’re trying to move forward in the playoffs. I wonder if somehow measuring it per week or per month and finding a median or looking at the standard deviation would offer something more valuable. I’d got to imagine that someone who consistently measures around 1 WAR per month is more valuable than someone with the same 6 WAR but with three WAR months and 3 zero WAR months, particularly when it comes time for the playoffs. One guy will be guaranteed to show up and the other will either be awesome or completely disappear.
My reaction would be to seriously doubt such a player exists (except as an extreme example of a SP who can’t yet go a full season).
Well, specifically that, no. But what I mean is just someone who’s overall consistency in value from start to finish isn’t so erratic. The less erratic player is more valuable than the volatile player. The problem is determining which is which when their overall value for the season matches.
So you’re saying we just need our players to be more consistent Vince?
No, I’m saying we need players who know how to step on the clutch.
I think you are really saying we need more Rangers and Yankees.
Only the really old and crippled ones.
Over the course of a full season, consistency vs. streakiness in terms of compiling value is irrelevant, but come the playoffs, I would say it might depend on the makeup of the team as a whole. If you’re the underdog scrapped your way into the playoffs team, I’d rather have streaky and hope to get lucky for a deep run, whereas if you’re the favorite, high true talent level team, consistent would be better, because just playing to your talent level means you’ll be performing at a higher level than the opponent the majority of the time
Yeah, this is the sort of thing I was getting at. Probably if we are going to talk about month-to-month variation, it is only sensible to consider offense, since measures of defense are just terrible over those samples.
I plotted up the wRAA (runs above average, *not replacement*) per month for six key hitters (using wRAA because it’s a counting stat, so if someone doesn’t get many at-bats in a month, it will be right around zero. The results are pretty noisy. Donaldson’s June is the worst month out of everyone and Moss’ May was the best. The Cespedes line ends after July and the Vogt line doesn’t start until June. The thick black line is an average across the six people shown (except that it’s an average across five for April, May, August, September). That line shows a pretty clear story of an above average in the first half that drops to below average in the second half.
My takeaway from this plot is that the month-to-month inconsistency wasn’t the problem — the problem was the steady downward trend of the black line.
I also choose to take away that my theory about Josh Reddick not being fully recovered from his wrist injury at the beginning of this season was correct.
If we can have Second half 2014 Reddick all of next year, I’d be happy with that.
Second half 2014 Reddick is an All Star who gets a fair number of MVP votes.
And I’d be happy with that.
… well, content at least
Yeah for sure. I think the health and talent makeup of the team at the end of the season is what matters. I buy that playoffs are a crapshoot and a team’s momentum going into them isn’t really relevant, but there’s a difference between a team who backs into the playoffs based on slumping but healthy players and one who backs into the playoffs based on injured players whose at-the-time talent level has been materially reduced
Who is black? The average?
Yes.
you got six guys all fighting over who’s gonna be mr black.
Why dopes Vogt got to be Mr. Pink?
I’m troubled by the notion that Norris was “banged up after playing every day for months”. He started 93 games and caught 870 innings, so he had just under 60% of the playing time. You don’t have to go all Fosse (“when I was playing I caught all 17 innings of a night game then caught both ends of a doubleheader the next day”) to say that if Norris couldn’t handle that catching workload at 25 he needs to try second base or something.
I doubt he got banged up from just playing catcher–various things happened that left him injured (for instance several players using his head for batting practice) at a time when the other two catchers were also injured. The injuries he has might linger, especially if he has a back problem, but I don’t see any reason to think he can’t handle the catching workload if he recovers by next year. Also, the natural plan would be to have him platoon with Vogt. He’s also not worth much at any other position.
My problem with that arguement is that I dont ever remember him being a plus defender behind the plate. It isnt like he was throwing tons of folks out before, and as he got beat up it became bad. He has always been meh at best back there. And as teams recognize that, and especially if power stays down and a focus on speed grows, the liability becomes only bigger.
‘Months and months’ is an exaggeration, but he was playing every day for weeks, and he was obviously injured.
I seemed like a gradual thing as Vogt was lost for foot pain and then Jaso died, er concussed. But it did seem like the last month and half he was the only guy back there while dealing with back pain the entire time.
New plan: find someone who has always been shitty but will be really awesome like JD Martinez.
Stephen Drew?
Jemile Weeks!
The “roll over or refund?” email for postseason strips arrived this morning. The last two years I rolled it over, and had my next season’s tickets and a few parking passes paid for. Today I asked for the refund. I won’t get the credit until mid-December and I’ll probably give them the money back by the time FanFest rolls around….but I just wasn’t feeling the golden glow of the last two years.
Another (or just a?) good thing about Norris is that one of my favorite Ken calls, that he used a few times, is “Norissss… ssssizzles a double.”
Jose tabata?
Interesting name. Could likely be had cheap. Hits lefties to tune of 124 wRC+. Solid to good LF. Awful RF.
For his career, Tabata’s L/R wRC+ split is only 107/99. His contract is good though — signed for $4 in 2015, $4.5 in 2016, then three(!) club options of $6.5, $7.5, $8.5 for 2017, 18, and 19. Should we really believe in such an extreme RF/LF UZR split? Or should we just take his the average across all outfield positions, which says he is a below average–but not disastrous–fielder (-4.6 UZR/150)?
So, we can forget about making a QO to Lowrie.
Thanks, and go As.
It’s hard to see anyone turning down a QO this time other than Shields, Scherzer and Hanley.
Steamer projections say:
C Vogt 1.2 WAR (537 PA)
C Norris 1.4 (220 PA)
1b Moss 1.7
2b Sogard 1.2
SS Punto 0.2 (260 PA)
3b Donaldson 5.2
LF Coco 2.1
CF Fuld 0.7
CF Gentry 0.2
RF Reddick 2.7
TOTAL 16.6
SP Shark 3.1
SP Gray 2.6
SP Kaz 2.4
SP Pom 0
SP Chavez 0.3 (35 IP)
RP Doo 0.8
RP Cook 0.3
RP EOF 0.1
RP Abad 0.1
Pitching TOTAL 9.7
In 2014, we got 23.4 WAR from the hitters and 16.6 from the pitching side. That puts us down 7 WAR pitching and 6 WAR batting. Um, ouch. Lowrie would make up ~2.5. Soto (2.3) would allow Vogt’s WAR to be added instead of replacement bench at 1b or LF. Chavez and Pomeranz could conceivably bring up the pitching side (Chavez from more innings, Pom from better performance). We better hope so, because otherwise, we’re in trouble.
Also, here’s an interesting link to check back on in the offseason: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team. I can’t tell where the numbers there come from, but they give us 36.8 WAR which is not bad. Actually, exploring that link looks like it does much better back of the napkin stuff than I did.
Yeah, the SP number is low if you trust that we’ll get above-replacement performance from the innings not covered by those 5 (e.g. one of our injured guys comes back). What scares me is that I think we’ll be lucky to actually get 6 WAR from our OF.
That seems low for Gentry assuming he’s healthy and actually plays a decent amount.
Thanks, and go As.
Big assumption.
0 WAR for Pomerantz strikes me as very pessimistic. How many IP is that for? Anyway, like nevermoor says, there aren’t enough starting pitcher innings there (or relief pitcher innings) and I’m pretty sure that we’ll get above replacement level performance. Probably aren’t enough PA either (but I’m less confident that the A’s will be using better than replacement level hitters).
It’s actually changed from yesterday when I typed my first comment. 121 IP of 3.99 FIP, good for 0.4 WAR.
Wow. That many innings of 3.99 FIP is only 0.4 WAR? What is league-average FIP these days?
League average was 3.74. 7.73 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, .295 BABIP.
My ignorant question for the day: why would they only have 35 IP for JCS? Clearly he would be a member of the rotation and if you believe that his fall off was innings based, which seems possible, wouldnt you assume he would be at a full season next year now that he has the experience?
The regular projections will not take any outside knowledge into account (i.e. it won’t know he’ll be in the rotation next year). It just looks at 7.2 IP in 2011, 24.2 in 2012, 57.1 in 2013, and 146 in 2014. I would have expected it to be at about 55 IP based on that.
But they have updated the projection to 126 IP, 3.83 FIP, 0.6 WAR.
What about Donaldson for Seager Guerro, Pederson and Urias?
Who says no first?
Them.
Dodgers. It sounds like they want Friedman to reign in the payroll and keep the franchise youthful. I think they QO Hanley (at most) or let him walk as a FA, meaning they need Seager sooner rather than later. Getting anyone’s top 3 prospects, even for Donaldson, is going to be nearly impossible.
Here’s a proposal I’ve been toying with…
Donaldson to Cleveland.
Jose Ramirez, Giovanny Urshela, Luis Lugo and Mitch Brown to Oakland.
It’s hard for me to see the value of trading Donaldson. He is the first legitimate MVP-type star we have had since Giambi. We have 4 more years of him. If he was 24, we would want to sign him for a million years. If he were a FA after next year, or even 2 years, I could see a trade. Presently? No way.
There are two scenarios that would have me advocate trading Donaldson:
1) A complete re-boot, which is what the above proposal is part of.
2) The Wascally Wabbit, in which Beane trades Donaldson and Kazmir to fill holes elsewhere (like SS, 2B and rotation depth) then uses the freed up cash to sign Chase Headley to a 4 year/$52 million contract to play 3B.
I don’t think Beane is ready for #1 yet, after next year I see it happening. And I doubt #2 is going to be available.
MLBTR suggests a 4 year/$48 million contract lands Headley, so at least I topped their numbers… the timing of closing a FA contract + pulling off a major trade is difficult. The key is, does SF let Sandoval hit FA and would Boston prefer Panda to Head?
Kazmir and Pittsburgh looks possible; Donaldson fills Cleveland’s needs exactly.
I could easily see Kaz going. If I had to choose between Kaz & Shark, I’d keep Shark and trade Kaz. Meeting their needs is only half the battle. Actually, might not even be half, maybe a third of it.
Here’s my argument for why Donaldson-to-Cleveland works for the Indians.
Clevelnad missed winning the Central by 5 games and making the play-offs by 3 games. They have about $10 million to play with before hitting max payroll. They managed 1.7 fWAR from 3B in 2014 and Chisenhall’s bat might be better suited for a platoon role… his defense isn’t going to keep him in the line-up. Donaldson produced 6.4 fWAR, or more than 3X’s what Cleveland got from 3B last year.
Plus, my trade targets don’t include their top prospects.
Why this works for Oakland:
Ramirez and Urshela could provide young, left-side starting production for the next 6 years. I’m not entirely certain Urshela is ready for Opening Day, 2015 but I think he’s close.
If Ramirez and Urshela are each 3 WAR players (a big assumption), the A’s still would need one of the pitchers to hit to get ahead in the next 4 years.
Given how hard it is for the A’s to get star players, I wouldn’t touch that deal. Beane’s at his best trying to find 2-WAR talents on a budget. He’s at his worst trying to find star hitters.
This team, frustrating as it was, is not that far from competing. There is still a lot of talent, and if the A’s have a reasonable shot at competing we need to try, because it’s so hard to build a contender on a budget.
Especially since it turns out the team we almost beat twice in one game is going to the WS without a playoff loss.
They’re better fucking continue that trend and not fucking choke.
you really think they will?
Assume crash positions.
12 of the Giants last 22 runs have scored without a hit … if they ever face a team that can throw strikes and catch the ball they’re in trouble.
the royals have hit 8 home runs in the last 7 games this post season after hitting 95 in 162.
They stop hitting home runs, their in trouble.
And this is their history. Honestly it is my assumption the Royals will go stone cold. The Giants have some sort of talent dampening device they have been using for years to turn playoff opponents into the CLE Spiders.
My extremem prediciton to a friend was they will get 3 hits over 4 games.
The Giants? That sounds about right. Yet they still end up fucking sweeping.
Am I the only one who thinks the Royals will win?
I also think the Royals will win.
Me too!
Question is: will they have a perfect 12 game postseason sweep?
I think the questions is wanting (pretty much everyone) and believing they will (which history shows the fuckers are incredibly lucky and teams have a tendency to fucking roll over and beg for them and a deep concern that the Royals will do just that).
I think it’s the fact that I’ve been conditioned to expect the opposite of everything I want to happen in the playoffs to actually occur
yup
Point acknowledged.
I do believe in Ramirez and Urshela as eventual 3+ Win players but that’s beside the larger issue: could/should Donaldson net a larger return? I need to do more research on the Indians’ system.
I do not believe Beane is ready to blow it up; this is much more an exercise for me to see what is out there if he chose to do so.
I agree though, I don’t think Beane is ready to do #1. My guess is he patch works the MI somehow (Pennington?) and deal Shark/Kaz if the team collapses or offer them QOs. Donaldson would still have 3 years before FA plus Moss and Reddick would have a chance to establish better trade value.
Honestly at this point im trading reddick shark kaz jaso norris and donaldson. You could get quite the haul.
I just don’t think we are competitive at this point without a MIF and unless we get moss back at full strength.
You are always in favor of selling and rebuilding though.
Thanks, and go As.
In this case, I’m kind of with him. I know we CAN compete, but I don’t see this as a World Series team without a few major upgrades that we can’t really afford. That being said, I don’t see anything major happening to the core this off season. Definitely see it happening after next year though.
I don’t see the Royals or the Giants as World Series teams either.
Yes, but those teams are fucking GOOD lucky whereas the A’s clearly have 100% BAD luck.
I dunno, I think maybe they try one more time next year and then go scorched earth.
Thanks, and go As.
Oh, I’m fairly sure they will. It’s more of a matter of what I (or DFA) thinks they SHOULD do more than what they WILL do.
They SHOULD make Fischer take a loss every year, because fuck it it’s sports and the dude can probably make it a tax writeoff somehow anyway, and give Billy a $150M payroll to work with every year.
Thanks, and go As.
MLB would heavily frown on that. It’s created too many issues in the past including the Rangers’ bankruptcy. But they’re payroll allowance is nearly 100M now with the new national TV deal. Unfortunately that just means everyone else has money to spare as well.
Eh. That’s OK, do it Mark Cuban style.
Thanks, and go As.
There’s a reason he doesn’t own an MLB team. And Cuban plays in a league with a cap.
Well yeah it’s collusion, he tried to buy a team — but that’s not exactly the point I was making anyway.
Maybe we can convince Larry Ellison that the America’s Cup is silly and since he couldn’t buy the Warriors he can drop a billion dollars on the A’s and Quakes.
Thanks, and go As.
Larry Ellison quixotically trying to buy a Club World Cup and blowing up MLS salary cap rules in the process would be fun to watch.
I be HE could get Mix to SJ!
Thanks, and go As.
I love donaldson. trading him would crush me. But honestly we need 1.5 Starting OFers 2 Starting MINF and 1SP I just don’t see how we compete with half a team.
Also we have nick fucking punto, so really there isn’t a lot of point in trying to contend with that dreck on your roster.
Even worse, we went after Punto to bring him here.
Thanks, and go As.
I get creative with the OF. Get a Matt Joyce or something. The MI is the big issue. Lowrie is sort of a buy low candidate. Stephen Drew is a big time buy low candidate. A trade is definitely possible.
We have a much better core than we had pre-2012 or possibly even pre-2013. You have to take a shot sometime, because you’re never gonna have the obvious best team in baseball on the A’s budget.
That said Punto makes me long for Pennington. And that is a sin I cannot forgive.
do you really think that Joyce is a good candidate?
I think pennington is a good buy low candidate.
Fuck it, get Hanley.
It’s not our money
Thanks, and go As.
Joyce has a career 128 wRC+ against RHP. He’s approximately average defensively. He’s not bad and wouldn’t be a hole on a playoff team. You need those kind of guys.
Reddick would be selling low, Jaso has limited value unless he says he can/wants to keep catching.
I think Beane trades Kaz to Pittsburgh, picks up Moneypenny from AZ, signs a mid-tier SP and brings back Lowrie to play 2B.
Honestly, I think Reddick’s second half is as high as he is going to get. The dude has serious injury issues and mental issues, too many to be able to string multiple seasons of 3 WAR play together.
What do we get back from Pitt?
I don’t know for kaz, but tabata should be cheap and a good fit for .5 of a left fielder.
Still hashing that out. My guess is the Pirates won’t like Kazmir’s $13 million salary and will try to make Oakland take Tabata as part of the deal.
Some people will like that… I’m not one of them. I do not consider Tabata an asset at all. Pittsburgh put him on waivers TWICE in the last year and no one took him off their hands. He’s a $4+ million albatross contract for a team with a smaller payroll than Oakland. I’d rather give Pittsburgh $3 million in cash than take on the $8.75 million owed Tabata over the next 3 years.
All that said, if Pittsburgh acknowledges that Beane would be doing them a favor by taking Tabata off their payroll, then he’d be a part of the deal. The prime piece would be SP Nick Kingham; I’m still debating the secondary player.
Kingman looks like a back end starter. Im not sure you couldn’t get better as the center piece.
Kingman maxes out as a #3, probably a #4. But he’s almost ready and can contribute in 2015. I think Beane signs a Gavin Floyd type to a 1 year deal, then banks on Kingham/Griffin/Parker to reinforce in the 2nd half.
I don’t think the Bucs part with Glasnow or Taillon and Beane has a habit of trading arms for arms. I realize Kingham isn’t a glamour choice; that’s part of the reason I’m struggling with the #2 name.
I don’t understand why you make this deal. You are taking on an extra money from tabata and not getting a very good prospect.
If I don’t get Tallion I want kingham plus bell, meadows or hansen.
Why?
I think you can save at least $9 million in 2015 salary, money that can be used towards the MI and a vet SP on a 1 year deal. The trade brings a young SP and I’ve been debating Hansen vs. Meadows. It’s so early in the offseason that I don’t have a great read on whom teams are high on and whom they’ll listen on.
As for Kingham’s goodness… he was BA’s 5th ranked prospect on the #1 farm system. Sickels gave him a B grade. And then he went out and pitched well at AA and AAA. I think he can be a mid-rotation SP. He won’t be a star, but the guy he’s replacing isn’t a star either.
If the centerpiece is a step down start for a starter, I’m not sure where the value is for us if we’re only competing for one more year. I get that there’d be more, but is there really more enough to really help us out?
especially since a 15 million QO for 1 year isn’t extravaget for his services so you can take a risk and get a suplemental pick
Which will be Beane’s play with Shark… barring an overwhelming trade offer, of course.
The A’s are only competing under their current incarnation for one more year.
Come 2016, Gray/Chavez/Pom/Kingham anchors the rotation quite cheaply.
I guess I just don’t understand your play here.
Because a year from now Kingham > draft pick. Among other reasons.
Come 2016 this team has no one. Yes, you’d have those 4 in the rotation, but you’ll likely not have any accompanying pieces that’ll make it a play off contender. I seriously see this team being blown up after 2016. So any move this off season is going to be a win in 2015 move, not a “well, it’ll be a nice minor piece next year” sort of move.
Are you talking about the 2016 season or after the 2016 season?
I meant after 2015.
The roster might get blown up after 2015… but it wouldn’t have to be. IF Beane can find a long-term option for SS this off-season then the potential is there for 2016 to be a contending season based on the current roster construction and farm system.
I just don’t see that happening. The arby numbers are going to start getting bad for the team. I’m not saying they *couldn’t* potentially compete, but they’d need too much to go right and if you want to get any real value for the pieces we have without having to go all Astros afterward (which Beane refuses to do) the blow up happens this year or next.
The arby numbers won’t be crippling in 2016 as Kazmir and Shark will most certainly be off the roster by then, freeing up ~$25 million.
I hear what you’re saying about the blow-up and I’m not saying it isn’t going to happen… I’m just saying that it isn’t a deadlock certainty for the 2015-2016 offseason.
It’s freeing up $25 million, but it’s also adding whatever we add this off season and the arby+ that likely fills that money up. While the team itself may be affordable, I just think we’d have too many holes to fill and not enough money or pieces to adequately fill them. The other part of the equation is when the kids will be ready, and as I said below, I see that as being 2017 so you’d want to reshuffle the deck in front of it while you have value to offer in trade. “Playing through” through 2016 leaves them with expensive pieces that won’t return much value and even more holes.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I remember a similar conversation with someone else years ago in which the other guy swore that because of the current roster and the state of the farm system the A’s window would slam close and the team would suck… due date of Armageddon was 2012.
I believe there are two legit paths Beane can follow this offseason. Depending on how the next few months play out, and then actually playing in 2015, there is still an excellent chance of multiple paths being available for the A’s.
There are definitely two paths. And it’s not necessarily a matter of a closing window, though there’s a risk of it. It’s more a matter of Beanes’ tendencies when it comes to the playing the cards he has.
If we’re looking to the current farm system to save us, then our presumed long-term solution at SS will be in Midland next year. The more apparent long-term hole is in the outfield, where I don’t see any real hope in the system..
There’s every chance Roberston will stall out or move to 2B, of course, but at least he exists.
I don’t see Robertson et al being relevant until 2017 at the earliest. It adds to my suspicious that post 2015 is the blow up. It allows Beane to pick up 2017 and beyond pieces in trade who should be heading into AAA in 2016 while giving a bunch of low risk, high reward guys like Moss or Vogt 2016 in a dead year to prove themselves.
Probably. But the fact remains that our best prospect is still a shortstop, and he’s not that far away.
Right. Which is why the sooner they reload the rest of the system with talent, the better. We need to be sure that he’s not the ONLY talent ready when that time comes.
I plan on writing something about that during the Winter.
OF is easier to cobble together, especially if you’re using platoons.
What if we drop Urias?
Donaldson for Seager Guerro Pederson?
Do you mean Guerrero?
The problem is Uribe was solid at 3B and Seager can cover SS until Uribe’s contract goes away.
Forgot that he still had 1 more year… I thought he was done.
However, you could move uribe to 2b and have gordon at SS and donaldson at 3b and that improves their inf
Because Uribe hasn’t played 2B in 3 seasons, Gordon might be stretched to play SS full time and I’m not sure the boon Donaldson provides over 3B Uribe masks the hit up the middle.
I don’t know enough about Guerrero; I’m guessing he’s a 2B.
fair enough.
The Dodgers are one of the (few) teams on my list that look like they need a 1 year rental SP. They can then go after a mid-tier SP like McCarthy on a 3 year deal and give their young arms another year to mature.
All of which makes Gray pretty, but not necessary, for their continued success.
I think you need to drop Seager from your trade ideas with LA. I don’t see the need for them to pay such a steep price to improve their roster.
Im not trading them donaldson or gray without him.
That’s fair.
It’s also why I don’t think either Donaldson or Gray would end up in Dodger blue.
I think if Beane shops Donaldson it’ll be to a team that needs to get over the hump, has a problem at the hot corner and has limited funds.
Right now that suggests Toronto and Cleveland.
Boston also makes sense with Mookie headlining a package.
Pitt would also make sense for donaldson since they have the issue with Alverez.
Maybe the Marlins.
Not sure I believe in Mookie (which is a thing I’m actively struggling with, because I own him in my fantasy keeper league).
That said, he’s an upgrade to NerdPower/Punto, so I’d certainly like to have him.
I think hes going to be really good.
So better than I think? Hope you’re right!
Boston was the first team I thought of. But I’ve read some interviews by their management folks and they’re really looking for a LH bat to compliment the line-up. They specifically mentioned 3B as a place to add that bat. That puts Sandoval and Headley in their sights. An additional (trade) target could be the Cubs’ Luis Valbuena.
So while I’m sure they’d be interested in Donaldson it would be at their price, not Oakland’s. They really like Mookie and aren’t going to part with him unless absolutely necessary; they have enough options to make Donaldson more of a luxury item.
neither headly or sandoval are mvp guys. Donaldson is. They have alternatives but he is the best way for them to significantly upgrade and Betts is blocked at 2b forever and in the OF for at least a year.
I don’t disagree with any of that. All I’m saying is that Boston has expressed a willingness to pay for a “Good” upgrade at 3B… not an interest to pay for “Great”.
I would consider this, but I think it might be too risky. Donaldson is a sure 5-6 WAR. He may just be better than you think!
I mean, I know you’re advocating scorched Earth, but Donaldson is the one commodity Beane hasn’t been able to procure regularly. As good as all 3 prospects are, it’s exceedingly unlikely you’re getting a single player of Donaldson’s caliber. And we end up back where we started, a really deep team with a lack of areas to really improve without stars.
I might trade Gray for this package though.
If we traded Gray Id want to sub Urias for Guerrero.
Would you trade Gray for Seager Urias and Pederson?
Offense, offense, offense. I trust Beane to cobble together pitching. So Seager, Pederson, Guerrero.
Or sub Pederson for Guerrero and have Seager/Guerrero/Urias. Not quite as good a prospect, but better fit. As grover said above, OF platoons are easier to mitch/max then IF.
Bet they get more than a half season of Lester
i doubt it.
1 year of 3 WAR?
You don’t think a team like the Royals would pay more than 1.2 wins and 6ER in a play in game for Cespedes @ 10 mil?
They’d have to switch him to RF?
Thanks, and go As.
Shortstop.
Small Forward.
yeah… but if you don’t care about trying to resign him it becomes less of a problem
Question.
Can you think of a comparable trade deal in the last five years to a potential Donaldson deal?
Best comparison I can come up with would be Stanton trade rumors from last offseason. But those were only rumors, so not much guidance on what an actual deal would look like.
Except it’s not a good comparison anyway, because Stanton’s much younger, so much more attractive for some team that might have wanted to trade for him and then get him to sign some gonzo ten year extension for a gajillion dollars.
Hanley? Discounted because of his salary, but…
Thanks, and go As.
Huh. I would definitely hope to get back more than Eovaldi and a single-A spec in exchange for Donaldson.
cabrera? (the second time?)
(cough) Matt Holliday?
Upton? kinda?
Upton, Hanley, Miggy Cabrera.
Anybody noticing who tends to come ahead in those deals?
Not us?
None of these really fit though
Towers is an idiot who blew all his leverage
Hanley had been underperforming and was a salary dump
Cabrera was a way to dump Willis’ shitty contract
I hope Beane is better than these fired gms
I keep coming back to Cabrera.
It’s not an ideal comparison… Cabrera was heading into his age 25 season when he got dealt; Donaldson will be 29 next year. Cabrera was 2 years from FA vs. 4 with Donaldson. Cabrera’s last 2 years with the Marlins saw him produce wRC+ seasons of 192 and 147; Donaldson has gone 147 and 129. Cabrera was worse defensively at 3B (-9 runs over his last two years with the Marlins) vs Donaldson’s +25.
But I think it’s a better comp than Justin Upton.
That 192 wRC+ made GMs feel things about Miggy that they will never feel for Donaldson, fair or not.
I screwed up somehow.
Cabrera’s last 2 years with the Marlins produced wRC+ seasons of 153 and 142. Still better than Donaldson but not as decisively.
The rest of the numbers are correct.
And considering Cabrera put up wRC+ of 171, 177, 166 and 192 in consecutive seasons… those warm fuzzies GMs felt proved accurate.
It also says something that the nearest comparables we found were fired GMs.
Step 1: Find a GM on the verge of being fired.
Step 2: Make trade.
Step 3: World Domination.
JUST MISSED Paul Goldschmidt!
Thanks, and go As.
Coincidentally, Toronto is on the short list of teams that could consider Donaldson a necessary addition.
Marlins ownership?
Give credit to Beane’s ability to pick trade talent when he has leverage. He got more value out of Ryan Sweeney’s first two seasons in Oakland (6 fWAR) after the Swisher trade than Florida got from Badenhop, De La Cruz, Maybin, Miller and Rabelo COMBINED (4.1 fWAR) during a similar time frame.
And Florida turned down better prospects to get rid of Hanley’s contract. Oakland doesn’t need to worry about finances with regards to Donaldson.
we are getting a new dh/1b/lf/rf!!
No Microfracture!!
is that what that means?
That’s what the beat writers say it means. Unless it means that there IS a microfracture but he’ll play (badly) with it for half of next season before they figure it out and shut him down again. I can’t imagine such a thing happening to us, though.
I don’t trust the beats to know what’s going on medically.
I don’t trust the doctors to, either.
Thanks, and go As.
I do trust them to say what type of surgery they did. But yeah, I dont trust anyone with a diagnosis until after the fact. I dont even trust Moss until like next Sept and he has done well all year.
Isn’t microfracture the surgery, not the injury?
Yeah and that’s what I meant. They didnt do the specific surgery that seems to hobble everyone forever. Now if it means BMo can come back to AZ and play like he did in the first half or during the WC game who knows?
I’m not convinced that microfracture surgery is necessarily something to panic about. Andrew Bogut had it on his ankle in 2012 and he seems to have made a complete recovery.
i have no idea.
I haven’t been to a doctor since 2006*
*for me. Kids tend not to have microfracture surgery
I think what this means is that in about 20 years, Mossy will be going in for a hip replacement.
Probably. It sounds like cartilage damage in a joint is something that never really recovers to 100% no matter what kind of procedure they do, so it’s just a question of how long the clean-up can minimize the pain and further damage.
Also, had we heard anything at all about his labrum before this?
#EricChavez
I thought he had said it was bone on bone and he got a couple shots for the pain. I think one of the interviews he did when they actually said it was messed up, he said he had to keep going to the trainer to get them to pop the hip and that would relieve it for a couple days too, and then it got to the point where it was having to be adjusted every day.
Bone on bone hip doesn’t sound good, so yeah I’d assume he’ll have a new hip when he’s 50 or something.
Thanks, and go As.
I have some knowledge about this sort of thing, since my right shoulder is basically cartilage-free.
I had my shoulder blade shaved back and it’s weaker. Entirely unrelated and pretty worthless to the conversation, but I wanted to share.
I need to shave my back if that helps.
I shaved my face this morning and now all it can do is hit weak ground balls to 2B.
You and me both.
I’ve got a bone spur at least an inch long on the top-end of my humerus. I can feel it clicking whenever my arm is in just the
rightwrong position.Make it happen Billy!
The A’s have re-signed Brad Mills to a minor league deal.
Game-changer.
$ $ Mills yo!!