Sean Doolittle says he ran at 75-80 percent – and backward! – and his right calf "feels really good." He expects to throw bullpen Monday.
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) February 15, 2014
#Athletics meeting of the minds #AsTalk #BillyBeane #BobMelvin pic.twitter.com/zKG73erqdi
— Kate Longworth (@KLongworthCSN) February 15, 2014
First team stretch at #Athletics spring training… pic.twitter.com/kcd5qU4cPU
— Oakland Athletics (@Athletics) February 15, 2014
Clubhouse noticeably livelier with Reddick and, now, Moss here.
— Jane Lee (@JaneMLB) February 15, 2014
For FSU:
And in beer news.
did someone bring a dog inside the brewery?
Bizarrely the article doesn’t mention that they’ll be opening right behind the identically-appointed (albeit 25% of the size) Drakes brewery/tap room/event space.
Yeah, I thought that was strange too.
This just in: All members of the A’s are in the best shape of their lives after adding 5-15 pounds of muscle.
and there it is.
messi: top la liga scorer in the same jersey. passes di stefano to tie for 3rd-most la liga scorer overall.
wait. moss and reddick… which one is platooning at catcher, and which one is going to the rotation?
barton showed up early too. (he should catch)
it’d be a nice change of pace for him. catching strikes from pitchers instead of hell from fans.
So I want to buy a bike. I don’t need a good bike. I want to spend less than $100. But I don’t know how to tell a bike isn’t stolen when I go top craigslist.
sounds like a 3-speed raleigh to me.
Yeah, Raleigh sport FTW.
Not sure how tongue in cheek the $100 part is but I was able to put a sweet new Fuji together new for $400 w/out the hub.
Meaning single speed @ $400. My 3 speed is stupid fast and lightweight.
The seller having the receipt would be the safest, but you’d miss 99% of the unstolen bikes for sale then too.
If a bulk second hand seller has been involved anywhere in the ownership history it has got a good chance of being stolen.
Buying from a police sale is a whole different species of bad karma.
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/bik/4334817028.html
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/bik/4314194669.html
these seem legit for a couple of totally circumstantial reasons. careful pictures. info about what it’s like to ride them. no spray paint to change the overall color. effort put into recent fixes or into improving it to sell. the price isn’t ridiculously low, like if you’re looking at a 2-yr-old campagnolo for $100, or even $300, probably stolen. that’s why i said 3-speed bike, because $100 is about market. bonus if they’ll let you meet them at their house.
you could skip craigslist and go on FB, look for a SF bike community (for example) and ask if anyone has a bike to sell. i think the peer group will help oversee that any offers are legit.
if you have the time at point of purchase, there are a couple of stolen bike registries that you can check the serial against.
though by $100 market, i guess i mean ~$150.
I have a bike that is a 55 cm that you can have. good city commuter type. needs a tune up.
is it here in the city?
It might be a touch too big, but I wouldn’t mind trying it for a bit. I can tune it up and return it when you give up on your LA story.
It is in the city. Its my old bike which is too small for me. Ill be back starting on the 26th till the 4th, so I can get it to you that week. Its free and I dont’ need it.
cool. It will cost me some drinks, I expect.
I’ve been thinking of getting one too. I’ll have to keep this thread in mind
So have I. I’m like 2 miles from work so I can bike in on days I don’t have the boys.
Thanks, and go As.
http://blog.sfgate.com/crime/2014/02/18/craigslist-post-leads-to-stolen-bikes-return/
So when is the TJS scheduled?
not for the faint of heart
Fuck dude, that sucks, slegnA aside, I was pulling for him…
And now he has to limp for next 3 months feeling like a grandpa…
:(
Ouch.
A lesson to all of us aging ex-athletes.
Dude, you were asked about a few times today Gramps, I’m hoping, no expecting (!), to see you in 2 weeks!
Kihei-Wailea bureau reporting here. There was a Hawaiian Monk Seal snoozing on the beach when I arrived about 9 this morning. There aren’t very many of these creatures remaining. The lifeguards called it in and some volunteers arrived complete with NOAA “Monk Seal Response Team” T-shirts. They put up a temporary fence around the gal and let her doze all day. Dumb-ass humans are a problem and their “offspring”, dogs, are apparently an especial nemesis to the seals. Fortunately it wasn’t much of a dog day at the beach. She didn’t move more than 5 feet all day but as I was leaving, a couple big waves came in and gave her a good whacking and within seconds she was off in search of a delicious fish dinner.
It was “World Whale Day” in Kihei complete with a parade, street fair etc. You can see plenty of whale activity just by sitting on the beach all day. Sometimes you’ll see a couple of them putting on a really good show a couple hundred yards offshore with the big jumps out of the water, but that’s inevitably followed quickly by one of those damned boats loaded with tourists charging over for a close look. The whales wisely submerge and head elsewhere.
What beach did you see the Monk Seal at? We moved from Kapalua to Wailea today.
The sight of Steven Tyler in a swimsuit scared you away from Kapalua? (One of the women I was near on the beach was raving about Tyler hugging her in a local restaurant or someplace the other day and I just thought ewwwwwwww.)
This was at Little Beach. The seal was right at the bottom of the short trail where you come over from Big Beach. Speaking of scary sights, I might go back to Little Beach for one last day tomorrow but it would depend on weather, which is heading into a wet period. Monday and Tuesday both look like beach rainouts, so I’ll probably do the northwest Maui loop one of those days and the Hana loop the other before heading home Wednesday.
I’d need two baths from a Tyler hug if I were a women…
Try to make it out to Hana, it’s amazing, and there are far many less humans once you get past the end of the road. Waianapanapa is a great park, and if you have a 4 wheel drive the road out is even more beautiful. Love Hana.
There are a lot of places to check out over on the Hana side. It was worth more than the day trip I gave it, particularly considering the excruciating drive. There are B&Bs in town so that’s on the list for next time.
It’s been cloudy with rain showers for the last several days. As I get ready to go to the airport it’s an after-the-storm sparkling morning, just FKing glorious.
Beautiful.
In our six days there we did not see a single rainbow, can’t remember that ever happening on a Hawaii trip before.
Man, sounds like a great day in the greatest state in the union, I love Kihei, none of the white light nazi or yoga stud vibe from 15 minutes north, also far enough away from the west end corpo retreat, enjoy your time there!
See all the whales you can you can you bastard, still waiting for my first!
Kihei has some dated shabbiness to it. It reminds me a lot of a tropical South Lake Tahoe in that way, and for a base camp on Maui it’s meshed well with my parsimony.
Full disclosure, the shabbiness is what I love about it, it’s ‘just’ Hawaii, no resorts or fanciness.
Completely with you on home base, for us, it’s usually Kailua or Kihei, we’re 15 year graduates w/ Kihei rental too.
In my younger days I loved a good shabby vacation setting. Downtown Las Vegas, for instance. These days I either totally rough it (backpack/tent/campstove) or go for the full luxury treatment. Both satisfy a certain escape which I really need from my vacations.
2.7M contract for Schlong, avoided arby.
Thanks, and go As.
I’ve always thought it was nice that the catchers show up so the pitchers have someone to throw to. (This has been Bed’s baseball analysis for the 2014 Major League Baseball season.)
Pomeranz “didn’t throw due to an ingrown leg hair that had to be lanced”… Welcome to Oakland.
A mile? Really?
irabu
Fat toad.
bg/AV bait
lol. i watched that game. cute dog.
So funny.
Humber Humber. The tl/dr version:
* Thinks too much; Bob Welch thinks he can help.
* Lefties hit .433 against him; Curt Young thinks he can help.
* Was briefly an Oakland A for Xmas 2010, then got claimed by CWS. Couldn’t be helped.
His Perfect Game was during one of the FKGates if I recall correctly.
Thanks, and go As.
interview with the beast.
The national TV money is kicking in.
Oh no mikeA
President of the Clowns of America International (?) decries article, says he was taken out of context and article is rife with errors. Such as:
.
Large clowns in tiny cars. Comedy gold.
Mmmmmm, relief pitchers.
Savery is a good name for a reliever.
IKR, how many more bullpen arms can we get?
Doolittle–> SS
Sadly, born too late to have been a battery mate of my old fave with the Hawaii Islanders, catcher Rick Sweet.
Hey – I remember that guy! One of several Islanders who never seemed to get a shot at the big leagues.
They must not be comfortable with Abad. So why trade Blevins?
Union busting?
The Angels made the highest offer to Matt Garza, and he blew them off.
I somehow doubt that Garza will be hurt financially by accepting only $50M over four years.
At the same time, LOL at the Angels.
It’s because they play in a shitty stadium where the pipes back up several times a season!!!
I have it on good authority that Garza never would have played for the Angles
read between the lines
Is it because he’s so obtuse?
ASVD
In fact he’s paying less taxes in Wisconsin so he may just about break even.
Thanks, and go As.
Though it’s complicated by paying taxes to the state you’re playing in – so only half the time Wisconsin over California. As an Angel 3/4 of his road interleague games would be in states with no tax, for example.
I’d still take half my games outside of CA right off the bat.
Thanks, and go As.
But he may face more bunters.
Ubaldo 4/48 -> Orioles
That could be a great bargain for them. Him and Kazmir were the two SPs I wanted this offseason.
yeah thats a great deal. Draft pick compensation really hurt him
ubaldo had a QO, yeah?
Can I have 100k?
are you planning to use it for a jail break?
am i in jail?
Well thats not creepy…
sounds like you’re anglin’ to buy the book i made.
its cheaper if you are an AV club member
Don’t google Joel Peter Witkin.
Not even worth a hundredth of that.
But it’s a masterpiece! The artist him or herself says so!
i just wonder if it’s original. those quotes really put the term in doubt.
That ad hits a sweet spot where the sculpture shows some clear evidence of competency. It’s kind of fun and not terrible. But then you read the text and see the price tag and realize that the person is just crazy.
I love the “bonus offer!”
You’re obviously Extremely Serious about this DIEHARD COLLECTOR’S ITEM. Perhaps you Can Bargain it Down and enjoy some ORiginal Art to Display in your Home and/or “Domicile.”
this one is cheaper and cooler
Count again.
oh wow.
ouch.
When did crazy people stop using commas?
Cash only too.
Specifically, though, he’s asking for “CASH” (quotation marks in original). To me that means I could give him 900000 in something I consider to be “CASH” and I’d meet the terms of his offer.
Frankly, the most impressive thing about this is that he has kept this 6 foot tall assemblage of sytrofoam pieces intact for more than 25 years.
You give him too much credit. He just made it yesterday.
No:
It has stayed in the year 1987 for all this time.
Yes, it was implied that that was a lie.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Only $10K for the Carnival Cruise Line smokestack
that is why he stopped using commas.
there in the body he writes “10.000”
SOmeone give him 10 bucks and now he is pissed.
Uh oh, the “good face” has been scientifically proven.
Note to Lew Wolff: Endow a small university department. Have them publish a study on the benefits of franchise relocations of < 50 miles. .... Profit!
so… we can face a man’s endurance performance by looking at his ass?
Moneybutt (at ** in the old days) was way ahead of its time.
sslinger bait.
I had just read that article when I saw this. It’s one of the reasons we were thinking of moving but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen any time soon. Between that and the construction of the new parking lot on Gayley where Maxwell Family Field (formerly Kleeberger for those of us old-timers) is situated, the next year or so is going to suck around here. Plus waiting for the inevitable plans to put a building where upper Hearst parking is, now that they have the 450 new spaces on Gayley. The only redeeming feature is that Soda Hall is butt ugly, and this new building will hopefully block the view of it from Ridge. And, as always, gotta love the last line of the piece:
Reading it now
Sent it to Pocket and will read later.
Wait, so the angels are going to get better by being the cardinals? like teaching pitchers to use a curveball telling hitters to be more like trout and less like Brandon Wood?
What is OBS?
I guessed OPS.
Oh, BS.
and is that scott servise pitcher or catcher
Also warning autoplay!
See, more evidence that there is no clown shortage.
Relevant to MikeV’s call to treat prospects like humans: MLB sued over wage and working condition violations against minor league players.
They should wait a few months and they can cite Raiderettes v. Raiders.
One of the BenGals is already suing.
I was REALLY hoping this was some kind of Onion article. Shit. I’m STILL hoping it’s an Onion article. Because if not, they keep raising the bar of just how fking stupid they can fking be.
Here’s the back story on why this guy is an idiot.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”
-Upton Sinclair
See, this sort of thing bugs the shit out of me. We have two options:
1) We attempt to convince the world to look the other way environmentally and basically sound like a fking idiot doing so.
OR
2) We attempt to create legislation that will help finance these sorts of retrofits so that our standards can be met without putting people out of business.
But hey, let’s fk commonsense and do #1.
3) We finance construction of new better plants that don’t burn coal.
Cespedes added 15 pounds of muscle? Um, where?
Maybe the soles of his feet and he’s now 5″ taller? Because otherwise yeah, I’m not sure more muscle helps him in anything but his mirror preening habit.
forehead. to hold his eyebrows up
His junk.
Olympic Hockey semifinals on Friday: Finland vs Sweden at 3:30 AM our time, US vs Canada at 9:00 AM our time, live on NBCSN. I will be recording the latter and avoiding the internet all day until I get home after work. Which may mean I actually have to do work that day. A sacrifice I’m willing to make.
California men: not, um, stacking up so well.
piercing!
Thanks, and go As.
OTOH, “new york minute”… you just got upstaged by vermont!
As usual, Sal is on top of it
Same thing in cosmology … one visible universe, infinite variance.
WTF, Phillies? That’s messed up.
assholes
Yeah when you have a chance to be a dick just to be a dick, you gotta take it.
They did, however, form a blue ribbon panel
how is your shoulder?
Pretty much the same as it was in October :-/
Yes, burning bridges and general assholery is how good business is done
I can’t adequately describe this story so I’ll just link it. K-it-Forward: How dozens of psychotic gearheads not only kept a wretched Chrysler K-Car running, but drove it back and forth across the country for a whole year, enough miles to circumnavigate the globe, to race it 20 times.
The Slusstress says that MLB is considering having the A’s open the 2015 season in Taiwan.
I hate that.
I love the idea of opening in Taiwan, but MLB does such a shitty job of it. No, I don’t want 2 games then the same two teams a week later at home. PLay clevelan in Taiwan, fine, then play the angels the next week. don’t give me the mariners for 2 then the Mariners for 2 more. That is bullshit
They’re doing it your way this year. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks open in Australia, and then come home to play the Padres and Cubs, respectively.
I hate it for other reasons. It’s a junket for the team and press, in return for an opening game that most fans can’t see live. And they even could make the timing work out reasonably (1 PM in Taiwan = 9 PM PT) but they don’t.
Or do it over a weekend where staying or getting up early to see it isn’t so conflicting.
How about just broadcasting it live in Northern California whenever they play it? That would be a marked improvement over last time.
I thought they did do that; I had the weird and wonderful experience of watching Yoenis hit his first A’s home run when I woke up to pee in the middle of the night. Or was it all just a dream?
I think MLB Networks carried the Mariners broadcast of one game, and the other wasn’t on locally at all or was tape delayed or something? Either way, I was asleep.
I think it was tape delayed. Definitely not live if at all.
I’m pretty sure GM is right one the M’s game. I remembe someone having a sig with something to the effect of “back to back middle of the night get up and pee jacks”..
That was my comment-turned-tagline. That’s why I assumed it was shown live, since I saw it at something like 3:00 am our time (following evening in Tokyo).
I was awake for 2008(?) and I watched, but had no access to 2012. If ity was not blacked out on mlb.tv, I would get up and watch
I watched 2008, but I was living on the east coast so the time was kinda perfect. I wasn’t going to pass up the opportunity for breakfast with Rich Harden.
Vote Nerd Power! Matched up versus Posey in the next round.
Score a small one for San Jose:
Huh. I’m actually really surprised by that. It says absolutely nothing about anything, but maybe there are few A’s fans in the Circuit who want this shit over with as much as the rest of us.
What is up with these skaters and their music? Suddenly a Prince song I’ve never heard gets skated to by not one, but (2!) skaters in the same Olympics? And then the Pink Floyd?…
The San Jose girl is adorable, the other two Americans were meh, and man can that Yuna Kim skate the heck out of a routine.
I was amused during the Ice Dancing finals how the also ran pairs were skating to stuff like Michael Jackson medleys and the Les Miserables soundtrack. I commented to my wife, “How can these idiots not have chosen some famous Russian ballet piece? There wouldn’t be a dry eye in the house!” Of course the groups that medaled did just that.
Are you telling me you have not memorized the soundtrack from Graffiti Bridge? Ok, lets be honest, I love Princ and you couldn’t pay me to sit through that awful movie again.
OK you’re officially my new go to guy for Prince info. Can you explain why two people chose that song at the same Olympics. Is it getting re-issued?
Oh, and I almost forgot that gawd awful Santana medley that one of the ice dancing pairs skated to in the teams competition.
FK just ate my comment.
In summary; no clue, I cant imagine why they would reissue that or why you would choose that song to do anything to.
Very serious article about the dangers associated with fraternities. But the opening paragraph is hilarious:
I was curious to find out what happened to Mr. Hughes, but Google hasn’t helped me yet. By an interesting coincidence, though, there is a Travis Hughes who used to pitch for the Rangers, and there is a Travis Hughes who edits an SB Nation blog.
I’m just going to assume they’re all the same guy.
my kids alway want me to call chris young when they see the name in my phone. i have lost count how many times i told them its not the one they are thinking of. blows their mind
You should probably call the guy once just to prove it to them. It’s obvious your children think you’re a liar.
Let me call first. I have a few choice words to say to that guy…
With the A’s struggling to compete financially, the owners cannot come together on a plan to relocate the franchise.
Just got to this, a fantastic tale.
White elephants.
Still happen.
Every year in Oakland.
What, Nobody In Particular was a Yankee???
I know we have some Aledmys Diaz fans on here and apparently the A’s feel the same way.
Yay
agreed
I can’t see how him being a short stop is that big a deal. If a guy can stick there he could just as easily slide left or right. And let’s face it, everyone needs one.
Speaking of pitchers and catchers, is anyone going to spring training? I am going to be there next week Tues-Sun.
Lucky duck! Have fun, and say goodbye to Phoenix Muni for Me. Only went there once, and enjoyed myself immensely, despite the terrifying fact that it was Law Enforcement Appreciation Day with special guest Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
Jealous! If only the law enforcement didn’t hate the tanned folk…
Im trying to get assigned to negotiate a contract out there so I can partake.
Let’s get our hopes up again!
From not quite a prospect but some scout thought he was a bad ass to a batting practice pitcher. How far the mighty has fallen.
No Hatte this year. 20 games of Shooty instead. Arneson thinks that’s an improvement. I don’t see why.
It really depends on which parts of his repertoire Shooty brings to the booth. When he confines himself to actual insights into the specific actions involved in playing baseball which he has from his own playing days, Shooty can be informative. Stuff like fielding balls, body momentum, what a hitter looks for out of the pitcher’s hand, and so on. But too often in the studio Shooty takes the next step into voodoo crap like playing the game the right way. That Shooty Babbitt would be much, much worse than Hatteberg.
at least 162 of Vince.
I miss Vince. I’m sure I won’t be saying that in a couple of weeks, but for now, I miss Vince.
Coleman?
Oh dear god no. No. NOOOOO. I can’t stand him.
Cruz—>Baltimore 1/8
After turning down a qualifying offer (1/$14M) from Texas and supposedly also 5/$75M from Seattle. Wow.
my fantasy is drew holds out till june and the A’s sign him
At this point the O’s will sign all of the untouchables. It’s not like it’s going to hurt them anymore now.
Darn, I would’ve loved to have Cruz for that amount.
Even giving up a pick?
It would hurt, but I place a lot of value on present wins in a competing year. Cruz seems pretty clear to be an upgrade over Barton/Vogt. And there’s a chance you can always recoup some of the value through getting a QO pick from him next year since it’s just a one year deal or through a midseason trade. Plus, the A’s are picking 25(?) next year so it’s not too big of a loss to me.
But Barton/Vogt aren’t the AB losers here. Its taking away AB/fielding times from Crisp/reddick/cespedes/crisp/jaso.
Sure, two of barton/vogt/giminez doesnt make the team, that’s fine but it hurts defensively.
It doesn’t make sense for the A’s at almost any price.
I don’t see any way Cruz takes time away from those guys you listed unless they suck or they’re injured, which is likely to happen anyways. And since Gentry can’t fill in all time, it’d make more sense to have someone like Cruz who could also back up the fragile outfield than I dunno, Michael Taylor.
If the A’s go through cespedes, reddick and crisp I would think that Moss and vogt would get time in the outfield and barton goes to first.
I don’t see cruz’s projected 7 runs of offense asbetter than doing nothing.
Yeah, Moss and Vogt in the OF with Barton at first seems pretty bad to me if you’re trying to compete. YMMV
it no doubt is, but at that point, cruz is not going to help you.
The team will likely suck yes, but it’s suck with a fighting chance if you have Cruz over Vogt at least.
I don’t understand how you could be for Drew but vehemently against Cruz. You realize Cruz and Drew are projected for the exact same WAR in ZiPS? It seems pretty clear to me that the Barton/Vogt contingent is worse than the Lowrie/Callaspo/Sogard/Punto contingent. And Drew almost certainly will cost more than 1/8 along with the draft pick.
drew would be replacing sogard’s bat and lowries glove, I think that is about 2 wins right there, the same as cruz’s projected WAR, but cruz would be taking ABs away from jaso, crisp (and therefore gentry in the field) cespedes and callaspo. I am guessing that is a group that will produce 1-2 WAR at DH, so the baseline would be higher.
I am not advocating signing Drew at his current asking price, but I am saying Drew is a better value to the A’s than Cruz at any price.
Yes, if you look at it as Cruz replacing the good players on the team, then it doesn’t look like an upgrade. I look at it as Cruz replacing Jaso at DH and Jaso replacing Vogt at catcher.
If the lineup is Jaso DH/Vogt C, it’s because they’ve decided Jaso’s too much of a health risk to catch anymore.
That’s what I thought this offseason too, but recent comments indicate the A’s are open to Jaso catching.
Why wouldn’t he learn from this year’s experience and take the QO next year?
Unless he gets suspended again, I don’t think this year’s experience is entirely relevant.
I just don’t think suspensions hurt market value that much. See Peralta, jhonny.
You may be right but it’s hard to know for sure. For instance, we can’t be certain that Peralta wouldn’t have gotten more than he did if he hadn’t been suspended.
I mean Melky Cabrera got a 2 year 16m contract after his PED suspension. Would he have gotten more if he didn’t juice? of course.
But that isn’t the point. The point is that either A) his performance was supported by PED and he won’t be clearly worth the offer B) His performance was not affected enough by PED that a 34 yo defensively challenged slugger who already had a bad experience turning down Qualifying Offers decides that he is going to forgo 14m guaranteed for 1 year to seek multi year deals
I would be much more money on A)
I’m not quite clear on what you’re trying to say here.
In any case, my point is a simple one. Whether or not Cruz accepts a QO depends on a lot of factors, foremost of which I think are his performance this year, whether or not he’s suspended again, and how the outfield market looks next year.
What happened to him this offseason is definitely a factor as well, but it’s still just one factor out of many, so I’m not certain either way as you seem to be.
I just really think that expecting a 34 defensive black hole to turn down 14m is unrealistic so adding value to his acquisition based on that if falsely tipping the scales in cruz’s favor.
So unrealistic…except that it just happened right now.
next year he will be older, the QO will be closer to $15M. I will be surprised if he turns one down from anyone.
Those are factors sure, but I doubt an extra year and an additional ~1 million or so in QO money matters more than say, the strength of next year’s outfield market. Which is incidentally terrible: the best OF available is Alex Rios but he has an option.
Someone on twitter opined that with the pick, Cruz should have gotten 1/2.5 or something. If the A’s were to waste a pick, Drew is a much better upgraded than the a DH
I’d be interested to see how this breaks down. ZiPS projected Cruz for 1.6 WAR (in Texas, though I doubt his Baltimore projection would be hugely different). Given 6.5-7 million $/WAR, does this mean ZiPS sees the 55th pick as worth around 8 million or so? That seems off to me.
why does that seem off? The increased dollar value of $/WAR it also increases the value of the pick. Esentially they are valueing the 55th pick at 1.15 WAR which seams reasonable.
Draft picks are rising in value sure, but what teams are willing to pay on the major league free agent market per WAR is not likely the same as projected WAR from a draft pick.
Im confused then
Value of draft pick = Expected WAR of draft pick * Average cost of WAR
If the cost of the Average Cost of WAR increases the Value of the draft pick increases, the value of the draft pick increases.
You’re using the average cost of WAR on the free agent market and applying it to draft picks. Because of risk and whole lot of other factors, that seems like an inaccurate use of the statistic.
To use an example, the projected value of a number one overall pick is what, 25 WAR? That doesn’t mean teams are paying 150 million dollars to their number one overall picks.
Actually thats how everybody does it… here is an article where Silver does that
…did you even bother to read the article?
Silver is using $/Per WAR for free agents (“Market Value”) as just one of the factors to calculate the actual value of a draft pick. In his article, he calculated the total Market Value of a Tier One draft pick as 30 million dollars (that’s your “Value of the draft pick = Expected WAR of draft pick * Average Cost of WAR”).
But notice he didn’t stop there. He subtracted the Marginal Cost (this is key, teams don’t have to pay cost controlled players the same as free agents) and factored in depreciation because of uncertainty (which results in “Gross Present Value”). The actual value of the draft pick is that tidy little number at the end of the column (“Net Present Value”). You’ll notice it’s a lot less than Market Value by itself.
So going back to your example of the draft pick worth 1.15 WAR…The projected WAR’s Market Value is around 7 million or so. But the actual value of the draft pick can only be figured out once you subtract for the marginal costs and depreciate.
The marginal cost change is negligible since the MLB minimum isn’t rising significantly
Year
Min
Salary
Diff
% of
Increase
2007
$380,000
$53,000
16%
2008
$390,000
$10,000
3%
2009
$400,000
$10,000
3%
2010
$400,000
$0
0%
2011
$414,000
$14,000
4%
2012
$480,000
$66,000
16%
2013
$490,000
$10,000
2%
2014
$500,000
$10,000
2%
2015
??
??
??
2016
??
??
??
Note: 2015-2016 will be at least $500,000 plus a cost of living adjustment (COLA)
Marginal costs include more than the minimum. It includes arbitration projections (which will rise as market value rises) and other related costs.
How convenient of you to ignore that though.
Which while not being controlled for in the CBA, there hasn’t been a rash of higher than normal arbitration awards either.
I have no idea what you mean by higher than “normal”, but because they are a percentage of market value, the flat costs of arbitration are higher now as market value has clearly risen.