So, I’m still trying to get a hold of all the transactions the A’s were part of in the last weeks. Assuming they are done [insert evil laugh here] their 25 man roster should look something like the list on the left. To understand the changes — and for the fun of it — I looked into what their roster and financial obligations would look like if they just resigned everyone and performed no trades. This way it was easier for me to try to assess the trades and the “trades” not as they happened, but position for position.
I have used arbitration estimates everywhere. I structured Kazmir’s deal as 2x11m. And I assumed 20m/2yr for Balfour (he has a two year offer from Orioles on the table, money is not disclosed as of writing this).
First thing that sticks out is that the 2014 payroll looks remarkably similar to the one it would be with all the 2013 A’s still around. And it is also high for the A’s, matching the record-setting2007 and about 20 million higher than the average over last five years.
And here are changes in the roster:
1. Starting pitching (FIP*)
In: Kazmir (3.80) + Pomeranz (3.91) for $11.5MM
Out: Colon (4.10) + Anderson (3.94) for $16MM
*As for the projections, I will go with Oliver, although I find Steamer better. But I don’t know anybody at Steamer, so I am not sure what park the current projections are based on, which does make a big difference. Average pitcher will have a 3.61 FIP playing for the Mets, 3.85 playing for the A’s and 4.32 playing for the Rockies. I spoke to Brian Cartwright this morning (Oliver creator) and he made the corresponding changes reflecting the latest trades. The FIP number in parenthesis is FIP scaled to playing for Oakland.
We can certainly discuss the validity of the projection systems and differences between Steamer and Oliver (Steamer is more bullish on all four; sees Kazmir/Colon swap same as Oliver does, but values Anderson significantly better than Oliver, perhaps because it is not yet based on playing for Rockies), but at least when everybody is on the field this does not seem like a bad swap for the A’s. However, this is just as much about how often these four will be pitching ( to lesser extent so with Pomeranz) as it is how they will perform once there. I guess A’s medical staff was equally involved in the decision making as was talent evaluation.
2. Relief pitching
In: Johnson (3.44) + Gregerson (3.33) for $15.7MM
Out: Balfour (3.77) + Blevins (4.18) for $11.5MM
Again, Steamer likes Balfour better than Oliver does, and it sees Gregerson and Blevins pretty equal, so make out of it what you want. Important thing is that Johnson is here on what is basically a one year deal, while Balfour will get 2015 on his contract, too.
3. Infield (WAR/600PA)
In: Punto (1.1) for $2.75MM
Out: Weeks (0.8) for $0.5MM
4. Outfield
In: Gentry (4.5) for $1.1MM
Out: Smith (0.7) for $4.3MM
5. Prospects
In: Billy Burns, Chris Jensen
Out: Michael Choice, Chris Bostick
Pre-2013 , Choice was a B on Sickels’ list, while Bostick was a C/C+. Jensen was unranked, while Burns got HM. Since then, Choice had a decent season in which he continued along the path of planned development, while the other three saw their stock rise. Burns is probably the most interesting player of the lot, and although his results have to be taken with caution due to his ARL, he has had incredible on base skills so far. If his plus plus speed translates to centerfield defense, he might well be a contributor to the major league club.
So, this is it. Much less analysis, much more an attempt at overview. Shoot with corrections and or comments.
Rule 5 draft: None taken, none lost in the major league phase.
Thanks, and go As.
and the minor league phase didn’t have us lose anyone of consequence either.
MIL: Vincent Catricala, 3B, Midland (OAK)
MIA: Tony Thompson, 3B, Midland (OAK)
And they take Tim Atherton (RHP) from Minnesota’s system. I was guessing this might be Keith Atherton’s kid, but no, it turns out this is Billy replenishing the A’s supply of Aussie pitchers.
He actually looks kind of interesting. Just turned 24, still in A ball, but consistently high strikeout rates and low hit rates.
I think I ask this every couple years… but aren’t you the one who runs the A’s System Depth Chart?
I found this site by accident but they seem to do a good job tracking options. According to here, Vogt, F. Rodriguez and Gentry still have options available.
Yes, I keep track of the depth chart and a separate list of options.
That agrees with what I have for Vogt and Rodriguez. I hadn’t done the research for Gentry or the other new players yet, but if the listings there are complete it looks a lot easier than searching through all the transactions on the mlb sites. Thanks.
Also tracks for Pomeranz, Lindblom and Scribner as having 1 option remaining. Lists Abad as being out of options. Gregerson has 5 years in the Show so options no longer matter.
vogt plays outfield.
He did!
He was primarily an outfielder in the minors. He made almost as many AAA appearances in the OF as C in 2012.
Atherton is also a recent pitching convert. He started as an outfielder.
That is a good reason to be 24 in A ball.
Forst has said the plan is to start Pomeranz in AAA as a SP. Also, Oliver has Straily projected at 2.4 WAR, higher than Parker or Griffin.
Looks like you enjoyed your trip.
thank god.
phew
From Slusser’s article:
Dude knows how to play to A’s fans… praise Rickey and talk up Moneyball
From Sickles on Burns
I can live with a Coco/Damon arm as long as he catches the shit out of every ball hit anywhere remotely near him.
He sounds kind of like a Juan Pierre who gets thrown out less often.
And with less power, sadly.
And who walks more!
SAME HIGH SOCKS!
Seems like a rich man’s Juan Pierre. For a solid defensive center fielder who can both get on base, stay on base, and can steal like a NY pick-pocketer, I’ll take it.
David Freitas is the PTBNL in the Johnson deal.
Mlbdepthcharts.com is quite good for an overview of all transactions made.
What else is there left to do this offseason? Trade Callaspo to the Yankees? Maybe pick up a C/MI? I wouldn’t mind signing another good reliever in February/March like we did with Balfour (and some other player who won’t be named).
Also aside from Coco and Punto, everybody is aged 24-30. In fact of the 32 players who could conceivably make the opening day roster, 25 are between 26-30 yo.
Given that the Blue Jays were infatuated with Anderson and a bad physical scared them off, I think this nixed trade was probably with Anderson.
Given what happened later, I would think it included something like:
Gentry -> Oak
Brett -> Tor
Santos -> Tex
I don’t think Choice would then have been included in the trade. So who could we have traded him for? Everyone’s dream would be Fister, but I think we have to assume that Detroit for some reason loves what they got. And given how much conjecture we’re working with, no use going too far down the rabbit hole. Food for thought.
That would’ve been an interesting trade. I’m not sure Choice gets traded if that deal goes through; with Taylor out of options and Shane Peterson being… well, Shane Peterson… the A’s don’t have any OF depth behind the starters + Gentry. I know, Moss could move to the OF but that’s digging a new hole to fill an old one.
That sounds kinda dirty.
And so is the roster we have better than the roster that involved standing pat?
I’m not sure.
Kazmir still seems an awfully big risk, making Colon almost seem like the safe option. I remember when he was really good, and when he was dreadful. We’ll see what we get.
Johnson is coming off a bad year, for a closer. But Balfour was risky too. Obviously, Beane wanted to have an “established” closer instead of going with Doolittle or Cook, and that will help with depth if nothing else. Signing Balfour to a multi-year wouldn’t have made sense. I’m ambivalent to negative about the real choice here, which was Johnson v. Dootlittle/Cook as the closer. The A’s gave up nothing for Johnson, but that’s money that could have been spent elsewhere.
I’m kinda bummed about losing Seth Smith, but it depends on how Gregerson does. Impressed with the return for Twiggy.
Gentry cost a lot, but he seems like a good acqusition.
But would you rather have Anderson than Johnson? That seems like the real choice when it comes to resource allocation.
Plus if you were going to go for established closer at 10m Id rather have Nathan at 2/20 than Johnson at 1/10
This is hindsight now, but like I said right when he was traded, I think Anderson is worse off than they ever let on and I think it’s a lot more telling that he wasn’t properly stretched out to be a starter last season.
Thanks, and go As.
That is certainly a possibility, especially when it comes to health teams have an advantage.
the ting about Nathan at 2/20 is he is 1/10 in 2015. The 2015 A’s need payroll flexibility just like the 2014 one does.
I don’t agree with giving any reliever 10m but if you are going to do so I am not sure why you are going to do so with Johnson when there were other options availible
Why is it Anderson vs. Johnson? Shouldn’t it be Anderson vs. Kazmir vs. Colon? Especially if you’re willing to entertain the idea of signing Joe Nathan.
Because of the money trade off. You could have afforded Anderson and Kazmir if you weren’t spending 10m on Johnson
In a vacuum I agree, but w/ the TV money…
We do have a pretty nice bullpen now.
Glad I don’t have to watch game 4 happen again…
Honestly, I can’t say I’d be happy about the A’s committing $19 million to two SP who combined for just over 200 IP last year. Fun fact: Anderson and Kazmir totaled 120 IP combined from 2011 – 2012.
Why not? In 200 IP they could have like 5 WAR between them. Now we’ve got Gray, 4 #4 starters, and Kazmir.
I don’t NOT believe in parker. there is a third, I suppose
Yeah, I don’t not believe in him either. I don’t think he’s better than average though. Heck, Gray isn’t projected better than a #4 either for that matter.
I still like Straily’s stats too, but man is he hard to watch.
History suggests otherwise.
2013: 202.2 IP; 2.8 WAR
2012: 35 IP; .9 WAR
2011: 85 IP; .8 WAR
2010: 262 IP; 1.3 WAR
Corey Brown for cash. DFAd and out of options, so he probably gets a spot on the 25 man roster, making the outfield a rotation of Cespedes, Crisp, Reddick, Gentry, Brown
Thanks, and go As.
Not so fast. Michael Taylor’s gonna have something to say about that.
“Shit.”
Brown’s ability to play CF probably wins him a job over Taylor. “Versatility” etc
Thanks, and go As.
I wasn’t being serious. I hope neither of them is actually on the team.