Who should play SS on 2013 Oakland Athletics – a case for, but mostly against, Hiroyuki Nakajima ← FREE KRAUT!

Who should play SS on 2013 Oakland Athletics – a case for, but mostly against, Hiroyuki Nakajima 71

18 Dec 2012  |  elcroata  |FK-All · Rosterbating

Just rehashing what has been said so far, so we have a central place for analysis later.

1. His offense.

Back in October Brian Cartwright, a THT colleague and the author of THT forecasting system Oliver, wrote following:

Needless to say, that would be more than awesome. This would be good for OPS+ of 107, assuming league production in 2013 is the same as the one in 2012, meaning that Nakajima would be an above average offensive producer for any position, let alone the shortstop one. Also, to put things into perspective – Pennington had 64, Weeks had 71, Drew had 97, Inge had 86, Donaldson had 89, Rosales had 76, Sogard had 33, Hicks had 73 and pure Luke Hughes had -57. So, if this projection holds up, Nakajima would easily and significantly beat what all A’s infielders did in 2012.

Also, needless to say, Brian is an expert on this matter and no matter how hard the NPB to MLB translation is, he has much better idea than you and I ever could. This is meant to take nothing away from Brian, as the following data is mostly anecdotal and he certainly has a better system. But the data that I look at makes me pretty skeptical about his chances to achieve 107 OPS+.

Vignette listed some Nakajima / Nishioka comparisons yesterday. Here are the last three years they both played in the league:

So, in those three years, Nakajima hit for a little better average than Nishioka, walked just about the same and had 37 points more on ISO. He was also two years older, on the good side of the aging curve. The difference between them amounts to about 10 runs of offensive production over 600 plate appearances. Of course, Nishioka didn’t exactly light it up in the Majors, so you should either hope that he had a really bad transition or hope for more than 10 runs NPB pedigree difference. If you are hoping for league/park effects, tough luck – they both played in the Pacific Division and the park dimensions are exactly the same.

We have more data on Nakajima, however, as andeux pointed out, the league effectively went to a dead ball era in 2011. As a result, the league average production dropped by almost a run. It is difficult to compare the two eras, but what we can do is look at how Nakajima did in the last three years as opposed to a few (somewhat) known measuring points.

UPDATED: To include Central League players. Aoki comparison in 2011 looks good, for sure.

Looking at the 2012, some reason for optimism might arise. He was after alll, better than Willy Mo Peña, Tadahito Iguchi and Esteban German, all just somewhat below average MLB hitters. Of course, Iguchi was 37 and Peña and German had OPS+ since 2008 of 53 and 82, respectively. They also had to deal with new league and new culture, a burden that is now on Nakajima.

Going further back, Nakajima beats a 35 year old Matsui and such greats as Jose Ortiz and Dee Brown in their thirties. However he gets it handed to him by Nishioka, he of .215/.267/.236 in the MLB a year after. Also, if the best one can say about a hitter is that in his prime he hits just as well as Tadahito Iguchi in his years 35 and 36, then I believe that some room for concern is understandable.

Gee, I hope Brian laughs in my face this time next year.

2. His defense

There was this:

and this

and this

Nakajima led all Japanese shortstops in errors for three consecutive years (2005-2007), but supposedly improved his defense and won a Golden Glove in 2008. Nishioka, who had better defensive reputation, had -UZR/150 of -14 last year. Kaz Matsui, who had much better defensive reputation had a UZR/150 of -16 and had to switch to second base where he was league average. This just doesn’t make one very confident that he can stick at shortstop. And if the A’s do stick with him and his UZR/150 of, say, -20 then he is a defensive downgrade of roughly 2 wins over Penny.

I think the A’s are buying an infielder, more then they are buying a shortstop and will try to figure out where to put him on field. Provided he hits some. Actually, I am offering a friendly wager to a fellow FKer. I am taking under on 800 SS innings played by Nakajima. Anybody wants $5?

3. Perceived value

The A’s are paying Nakajima as if they expect him to be about a half of a WAR to a WAR player (or as if they just want to do something). Nobody else seemed to think that he is worth more. Nobody seemed to think that he was more valuable than Drew. So, how about not saying that this is a great move? It is low risk only in financial terms, it is a very high risk in performance terms. If he turns out into Nishioka 2.0, the A’s have not lost only $3MM. No, they have lost the best opportunity to make the team better.

Also, they don’t seem to believe that Drew over Nakajima would be more than a WAR upgrade (judging on Slusser’s information that the A’s offer was significantly less than $10MM). I might be willing to take another wager here…

71 thoughts on “Who should play SS on 2013 Oakland Athletics – a case for, but mostly against, Hiroyuki Nakajima”

  1. TJ Dec 18,2012 12:35 pm

    “The A’s are paying Nakajima as if they expect him to be about a half of a WAR to a WAR player”

    Actually, that’s not true. The A’s are paying him that much because that’s how much the rest of the league thinks he’s worth. The A’s think he’ll be worth more than that, otherwise they wouldn’t have tendered him that contract. Granted, they probably don’t think he’ll be worth all that much more than that, but they probably see him in the same league as Drew.

    • elcroata Dec 18,2012 12:49 pm || Up

      That’s lot of assumptions there.

      First:

      The A’s think he’ll be worth more than that, otherwise they wouldn’t have tendered him that contract.

      You think that teams never pay what they think the market value is, but always less? In a market where they have an opening and there is basically only one candidate left?

      The A’s are paying him that much because that’s how much the rest of the league thinks he’s worth.

      How do you know what the rest of the league thinks he is worth? The only thing we know is that nobody thinks he is worth more, otherwise they would have paid so. It could well be that everybody thinks he is worth a bag of balls.

      There are basically two conditions that have to be met to sign a player, if we look at monetary aspect alone. One, you have to offer more than your competitors. Two, you have to offer enough to meet player’s needs. Don’t forget that Nakajima received $3.6MM from Seibu last year. Even if everybody else in the MLB would only offer $1, that doesn’t mean the A’s could have him for $2.

      Because survival is insufficient
      • TJ Dec 18,2012 3:02 pm || Up

        All good points. You’re right that the rest of baseball might not value him at all and that point was poorly phrased on my part. My main contention is with your own assumption that because the A’s paid him what they did they then value him at about that much. As you already noted, what they paid him is representative of what it takes to sign him, not what they value him at. And given what we know about the A’s I think it’s a fair assumption to make that they value him at more than what they paid.

  2. Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 18,2012 1:18 pm

    I know Norichika Aoki played in the Japanese Central League, so the park/league adjustments are probably different, but Nakajima compares pretty solidly with him based on the raw numbers. Nakajima had more power and less discipline, but he also looks like he handled the first year of the dead ball era better.

    Aoki
Year  Age Tm     G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B  HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS   TB GDP HBP SH
2009  27 Yakult 142  624  531  87 161  23  2 16  66 18 10  75  65 .303 .400 .444 .844  236   9  13  1  
2010  28 Yakult 144  667  583  92 209  44  1 14  63 19  4  63  61 .358 .435 .509 .944  297  10  18  0  
2011  29 Yakult 144  643  583  73 170  18  5  4  44  8  3  51  55 .292 .358 .360 .718  210   6   9  0 

Nakajima
Year  Age Tm     G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B  HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS   TB GDP HBP SH
2009  26 Seibu 144  648  560 100 173  31  3  22  92 20 12  75 113 .309 .398 .493 .891  276  17  10  0  
2010  27 Seibu 130  579  503  80 158  33  3  20  93 15  5  52  97 .314 .385 .511 .896  257  20  13  0 
2011  28 Seibu 144  633  566  82 168  27  1  16 100 21  2  44  93 .297 .354 .433 .787  245  11  12  0
    • Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 18,2012 1:19 pm || Up

      Bah, that lined up better in the comment box.

    • elcroata Dec 18,2012 1:37 pm || Up

      I think most of the Japanese stadiums are very similar in dimensions, mostly 100m to the poles, 120m to the center and 3-4m wall.

      That’s good news. Thanks

      Because survival is insufficient
      • elcroata Dec 18,2012 2:08 pm || Up

        Added the Central League players, too

        Because survival is insufficient
      • Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 18,2012 2:26 pm || Up

        One recent positive example and comparison is better than none, at least.

  3. nobody in particular Dec 18,2012 1:52 pm

    It’s all good, even if Nak tanks Addison Russell will be here before we know it to conquest MLB.

    Never suck on a Blow Pop with the microphone open.
    • PDXAthleticsfan Dec 18,2012 2:09 pm || Up

      So how long before I need to start serious work on my F(IL)K up of Elvis Costello’s “Allison”, to be sung by the Young Ensemble of A’s Hurlers:

      “Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa-ddi-sooooooon, I know the ball is killed by you.
      Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa-ddi-sooooon, your swing is true.”

      A soliloquy of fresh-sounding ideas which would probably be disastrous.
      • nobody in particular Dec 18,2012 2:32 pm || Up

        hahahahahaha, oh that is badass

        Never suck on a Blow Pop with the microphone open.
  4. Englishmajor Dec 18,2012 2:20 pm

    Hiro is adorable. First question from Slusser was why did you want to play in Oakland? He said it was because Billy is “kakko ii” which the translator (who is also awesome) rendered as “Billy Beane is extremely sexy and cool”.

    • Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 18,2012 2:27 pm || Up

      “He was great in Fight Club, too!”

      • nobody in particular Dec 18,2012 2:28 pm || Up

        He may not be the best NPB player to come here, but he SURE IS THE CUTEST!!!

        WOW!!!!!!!!

        Never suck on a Blow Pop with the microphone open.
        • Englishmajor Dec 18,2012 2:36 pm || Up

          OMG! his final comment in English: I want to do my best for the team but I also want to learn the Bernie dance (he Bernies).

          • nobody in particular Dec 18,2012 2:45 pm || Up

            “I want to Bernie dance with Oakland.”

            I LOVE this guy!!!!

            Never suck on a Blow Pop with the microphone open.
            • Kay Dec 18,2012 4:02 pm || Up

              aww… how FKing cute!

              \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
          • FreeSeatUpgrade Dec 18,2012 9:13 pm || Up

            Nothing I have heard today makes me happier than this.

            "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
        • Glorious Mundy Dec 18,2012 2:42 pm || Up

          Cuter than Matsui?!?

          • nobody in particular Dec 18,2012 2:46 pm || Up

            no contest there

            Never suck on a Blow Pop with the microphone open.
          • nevermoor Dec 18,2012 2:55 pm || Up

            Cuter than Matsui’s porn collection?!?

            "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
  5. Glorious Mundy Dec 18,2012 3:47 pm

    David Forst is on with Townsend right now.

    • Glorious Mundy Dec 18,2012 3:50 pm || Up

      God, Ric Bucher sounds lost talking about baseball.

  6. vignette17 Dec 18,2012 3:52 pm

    Who’s Alex Ramirez and why have I never heard of him?

    • elcroata Dec 18,2012 9:30 pm || Up

      He played for Cleveland towards the end of the century a bit, got traded to Pittsburgh

      Because survival is insufficient
  7. aardvark Dec 18,2012 5:02 pm

    In case you missed it, Carignan did an AMA over on reddit earlier.

  8. grover Dec 18,2012 5:35 pm

    I want $5! Two caveats…

    1. The bet is void if an injury keeps Nakajima off the playing field.

    2. MikeV has to cover my debt if Hanley or Tulo come over to Oakland, like he keeps wishing.

    • MikeV Dec 18,2012 8:22 pm || Up

      and what about when Barton gets moved to 3B, what do I get then????

      And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

      Thanks, and go As.

      • Tutu-late Dec 18,2012 8:32 pm || Up

        KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!

      • grover Dec 18,2012 11:36 pm || Up

        You get to pound sand.

      • nevermoor Dec 19,2012 9:35 am || Up

        As someone with a signed Barton photo on the wall of my office, I very much hope he finds a way to be a solid player

        "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
        • Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 19,2012 9:51 am || Up

          My Barton-signed A’s pennant agrees with you.

    • nevermoor Dec 18,2012 9:13 pm || Up

      $10,000?

      "There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want"
    • elcroata Dec 18,2012 9:28 pm || Up

      Deal

      Because survival is insufficient
      • grover Dec 19,2012 10:05 am || Up

        I think there’s a very good chance I (or MikeV) end up owing you $5.

        Signing Nakajima removes some of the “need” perceived by everyone (A’s fans, player agents and opposing GMs) when discussing the A’s 2013 SS situation. Everyone knew Beane would not/could not go into next season with Rosales or Sogard as his Opening Day SS; this obvious weakness put Beane at a disadvantage in every negotiation he engaged in. And I read in a book somewhere that Beane doesn’t like being in a situation where he “needs” to make a move.

        Adding Nakajima is a flashy move that gives Beane a fallback position, at least for a few months. He can continue to look for an upgrade and he has obligated his opposite number to make more reasonable demands. Beane no longer “needs” to make a move at SS… he’s only going to make a move he “wants” to do.

        • elcroata Dec 19,2012 10:29 am || Up

          Pretty much agree with all of this

          Because survival is insufficient
        • Kylianna Dec 19,2012 2:45 pm || Up

          Makes sense.

        • bear88 Dec 19,2012 11:46 pm || Up

          I partially agree.

          Few GMs do well when they need to make moves, because everyone knows it. So Nakajima does remove that problem, but only if he’s not terrible – especially on defense. If he’s terrible, then Beane will be looking for a shortstop again soon, and will be in the same position he was before this signing.

          • elcroata Dec 20,2012 12:09 am || Up

            He might have a window though, after he realizes Nakajima is not the answer (perhaps even as of right now) until the others realize it (perhaps some months into the season).

            Because survival is insufficient
            • grover Dec 20,2012 12:54 am || Up

              Rough guess… Beane can use Nakajima as cover until June.

              Who knows, maybe Nakajima can handle the job.

              • brian.only Dec 20,2012 12:57 am || Up

                He’s definitely handling the media well, what a charming goof!

                • elcroata Dec 20,2012 1:10 am || Up

                  Yeah, I mean FK the numbers and what’s right projection-wise, I’d really like the guy to succeed

                  Because survival is insufficient
  9. YonYonson Dec 18,2012 9:25 pm

    WILY MO!

    "Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common." — Satchel Paige
    • YonYonson Dec 18,2012 9:31 pm || Up

      (no this does not mean I think Wily Mo should play shortstop… okay… maybe…)

      "Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common." — Satchel Paige
  10. PDXAthleticsfan Dec 19,2012 3:19 pm

    The video in this Rob Neyer piece is hilarious with some borderline NSFW moments.

    A soliloquy of fresh-sounding ideas which would probably be disastrous.
    • Englishmajor Dec 19,2012 8:57 pm || Up

      I love the Taiwanese news animators so, so much.

  11. Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 19,2012 3:39 pm
  12. elcroata Dec 19,2012 10:28 pm

    Because survival is insufficient
    • elcroata Dec 19,2012 10:29 pm || Up

      Because survival is insufficient
      • brian.only Dec 19,2012 10:46 pm || Up

        Kicks the pants out of what we received from Penny last year (215/278/311, .299wOBA) and a nice little bump up from Drew (250/326/382, .291 wOBA).
        Pretty much average, which for us is actually fantastic, but still, I’m hoping Billy isn’t done yet.

        • elcroata Dec 19,2012 10:52 pm || Up

          I hope he is right.

          You have career wOBA for Pennington, not his last year’s – that one was .263.

          However, 30 points of wOBA advantage (over Drew) is worth about 15 runs over 600 PA. 15 points of UZR/150 disadvantage over 1200 innings would negate that completely, though.

          Because survival is insufficient
          • brian.only Dec 20,2012 12:01 am || Up

            Ah, thanks for the correction, looks even better.
            Seeing as defense is not measured as actively and perhaps as accurately as offense only time will tell.

            • elcroata Dec 20,2012 12:35 am || Up

              Sure. When in doubt, always place more value on offensive stats. However, even those are highly insecure right now.

              Because survival is insufficient
          • Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 20,2012 10:15 am || Up

            At the price we paid, these projections are encouraging even if Nakajima’s defense is middling.

  13. JamesV Dec 20,2012 7:48 am

    I saw part of the press conference while visiting relatives. I hope Nakajima is half as good as his interviews are shaping up to be.

    Saw him play for Japan in the 2009 WBC but I didn’t remember anything standing out about him. I wasn’t really paying too much attention to any one person in particular though. I was just there to enjoy the baseball.

  14. MikeV Dec 20,2012 10:40 am

    Fallback. *runs and hides*

    And I have to say: mikev is one of my favorite people on here -slusser.

    Thanks, and go As.

    • elcroata Dec 20,2012 10:42 am || Up

      Veteran presence!

      Because survival is insufficient
      • Dial C for Concupiscence Dec 20,2012 12:58 pm || Up

        Knows how to win whiff on sliders low and away!

        • oblique Dec 20,2012 1:31 pm || Up

          Really looks like a ball player!

          • FreeSeatUpgrade Dec 20,2012 2:59 pm || Up

            He has the good face!

            "Kraut will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no kraut."
    • Kay Dec 20,2012 12:57 pm || Up

      Maybe he can catch on with an independent league team or something… another summer riding the buses for old times’ sake…

      \"Weren\'t you already aware the Kay is already writing everyone\'s story? We\'re all just characters who believe we are real. Things make more sense now, don\'t they. Be honest.\"- DMOAS
    • doctorK Dec 20,2012 1:00 pm || Up

      I’m too lazy to come up with something better.

    • Englishmajor Dec 20,2012 5:35 pm || Up

      Christ, what an asshole.

      • YonYonson Dec 20,2012 8:22 pm || Up

        ASVD

        "Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common." — Satchel Paige
  15. the dogfather Dec 22,2012 8:13 am

    el-cee: not sure whether this has been discussed hereabouts, but wanted to be sure you get to see David Brashears’ glacierworks project and 4B pixel “tour” of the Everest environs. My sense is he’s a pretty terrific mountaineer, and he does interesting things.

    Here

    Fascinating. I can get lost in this stuff for hours.

    The meaning of life is not so much found, as it is Made. -- Opus
    • elcroata Dec 22,2012 8:31 am || Up

      amazing

      Because survival is insufficient
      • sslinger Dec 22,2012 8:58 pm || Up

        Very cool. Some more really beautiful photography, this being of the night sky. Click on the Shooting Stars panel when the main screen shows up.

        • ptbnl Dec 23,2012 6:51 am || Up

          whoa … beautiful

          If this is His will, He's a son of a bitch.

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