If the season started today, we could be looking at something like this as the Athletics 25 man roster:
(position – name – 2013 salary in $MM [italic is arbitration estimate])
Lineup
C – Norris – 0.48
1B – Moss – 1.40
2B – Sizemore – 0.48
SS – Nakajima – 2.88
3B – Donaldson – 0.48
LF – Cespedes – 8.50
CF – Crisp – 7.00
RF – Reddick – 0.48
DH – Smith – 3.30
Bench
C – Kottaras – 1.10
OF – Young – 8.75
1B – Carter – 0.48
INF -Â Rosales -Â 0.70
1B – Barton – 1.10
Starting rotation
SP – Anderson – 5.75
SP – Parker – 0.48
SP – Millone – 0.48
SP – Griffin – 0.48
SP – Colon – 3.00
Bullpen
RP – Neshek – 0.98
RP – Blevins – 1.00
RP – Cook – 0.48
RP – Balfour – 4.50
RP – Doolittle – 0.48
RP – Blackley – 0.48
Option buyout: Drew – 1.35
=====================
Projected opening day payroll ~ $57MM
The focus of this post is mainly on the financial side, so don’t jump on me because I placed the A’s most expensive player on the bench. He will be on the 25 man roster and he will play his fair share of games. The important part is that he will be paid $8.75MM. Also, I don’t know if Sizemore will be playing second base with Green backing him up, or if Weeks will be playing it with Sizemore backing it up, but I don’t really care – each costs a league minimum in 2013. Finally, I also don’t envision a five men bench with two first basemen on it, but I wanted to include Barton, because his contract is not of a league minimum variety and I wanted to reflect that. His contract is also not guaranteed ($250k is), so perhaps the payroll will be about half a million lower than what I have here.
Adding this as it is, we are at $57MM, basically the same figure as last year. However, since Wolff took over, the Athletics averaged just over $61MM on their opening day payrolls. Also, last time the A’s had reached post-season, they increased the next year’s Opening day payroll by $17MM to a Wolff’s era highest $79MM. So, in all probability, there is still room for increase, the question is how much, with the options probably ranging from “nothing” to as much as $15MM.
Whatever the money is left should go first to improving the shortstop position. Rosales is by all accounts replacement level, so by acquiring a league average shortstop the A’s could get about two wins better in a hurry. With Yunel Escobar gone, there are five options most often mentioned:
1) Sign Drew on a one year deal with 2014 option
Drew was a 4 WAR player in two years prior to his injury and league replacement level after. There are questions what kind of performance is to be expected from him and he will be paid accordingly. Slusser reported that the A’s are planning on signing him on a one year deal with a player option for 2014. If the league believes he is likely to perform at least as a league average shortstop, he will get the money. But how much?
- Scutaro went for $20MM/ 3yr. He is 37 years old and a 2.5 WAR player over last 3 years. If you say he declines to say 2/1.5/1 WAR over those three years, he is being paid $4.5MM/WAR
- Izturis signed for $10MM/3yr. Over his career he was an average fielding shortstop, although he was used mostly as a utility infielder. Over last three years he was a league average (2 WAR/150 games) producer, but as he will probably be used off the bench in Toronto, he gets paid about $3MM/WAR. He is also 32 and the type of player (speedy, no power) who often sees decline at this age.
So far not much happened on the SS front, due to the fact that there are not too many viable free agents, but also that not too many teams are shopping for one.
Drew’s biggest draw is the upside and the not so distant 5 WAR season in 2010. Everything depends if the teams will buy into that and pay accordingly, or if they will be vary of the post injury production and hold back. If he is seen as 2-3WAR/yr player, I just don’t see how he gets paid less than $10MM/yr, which was the value of the option the A’s declined and instead chose to pay a $1.35MM buyout, basically valuing him him at less than $9MM. (To be fair, it was a mutual option, so perhaps they knew Drew was declining and just beat him to the punch).
He probably stands to gain the most with a one year deal with a 2014 option as Slusser mentioned, although Oakland is not the world’s best place to rebuild hitting value. Boston has Iglesias penciled to start, and he was bad both in his cup of coffee and in the AAA. Bogaerts had a great 2012, but there are some question marks about his SS defense and he could use another full year in the minors. I could see a mutual interest and Boston could be a great place for Drew to rebuild value. A player option for 2014 could bring the value of 2013 salary down, but I would be very surprised if this Boras client signs for anything less than $8MM in 2013. If the A’s sign him, the 2013 payroll is probably somewhat above $62MM and that could probably be the only move they make.
We’ll see. As of now, the A’s, the Red Sox, the Twins and the Diamondbacks are all looking (more or less actively) into the shortstop market.
2) Trade for Peralta if Drew signs with the Tigers
If there is any truth to such rumors, Tigers are after Drew and would be willing to trade Peralta for Weeks. That means that the Tigers are either confident that Drew will bounce back in a great fashion or that Peralta will decline, but I just don’t see much sense in it from the Tigers perspective. Peralta is a league average hitter playing competent shortstop. He is durable (averaged 150 games per year over last seven years) and under a very reasonable contract – $6MM for 2013. And he is just one year older than Drew.
They would convert Weeks to OF, but why not just keep Peralta and sign a free agent OF? Whether that trade makes sense for the A’s depends on how much they believe in Weeks (5 years of control left, two at the league minimum) and how high they value their chances in 2013. I was never very high on Weeks, so I’d do it if the opportunity arose.
Either way, if this were to happen, the A’s would looking at $59MM for 2013 and probably a dollar or two left to spend elsewhere.
3) Trade for Asdrubal Cabrera
That would probably be very costly in terms of talent. Supposedly a three way trade was close to completion in which the Indians would have given up Cabrera for Olt + one of Bauer/Corbin. I don’t want to be anywhere near such a trade. Cabrera would add $6.5MM to the 2013 payroll, meaning it would be at $59MM
4) Sign Nakajima
Consensus seems to be that he could be had on one year plus an option year for $3MM-$5MM. Consensus also seems to be that he is not very good. With him the A’s 2013 Opening day payroll is somewhere around $56MM.
5) Sign Adelmis Diaz
I think something like $12MM over 6 years could get that done. I also think he will not be ready for Majors in 2013 as I wrote elsewhere. Adding him on such a contract, A’s could be creative about the signing bonus, probably keeping it to not more than $3MM, again ending with $56MM but still not adding a shortstop to the 2013 squad.
To sum it up:
I’d be happiest with getting Peralta and signing Diaz in hope he could be ready for 2014. In case he doesn’t work out, 2014 SS class has Peralta, Escobar and Ryan, perhaps Drew so you can start all over again. But I guess it all depends on how valuable you think Weeks is.
So, say the A’s get a new shortstop somewhere in the $8MM range. They are then at $61MM for the start of the season and hopefully at least 2 wins better.
Where do you see them going from there? Add another $5MM to $10MM, which might be plausible, try not to give up too much talent in a trade and make them better.
– Do you go after Shaun Marcum? Joe Saunders? Trade for a first baseman? A middle infielder?
UPDATED 29.12.
Fine and informative post, ec.
I’d trade Weeks in a heartbeat. I’d also try to sign Diaz as well. But I’d run it in your 1,2,4,3 order for who starts at SS this year. Not so much that I value Drew all that much over Peralta, but it’s a Devil you know + not having to give talent up.
And after that? Say you have some $5MM to $10MM at your disposal and are ready to part with some talent. Who do you go after?
I’ll sign for that.
Thanks, and go As.
Are 2013 WS tickets for sale already?
Not a clue. Might try to snap up another starting pitcher from somewhere even if it’s a high risk/high reward type as long as the contract length was short. I doubt you’ll find a starting third baseman or second baseman that’ll gain you much. If there’s a catcher with potential I might look there. Mostly I’d be prepared to hold on to that extra cash and take a wait and see approach looking to fill gaps mid-season.
I wanted Uehara. I still think the bullpen could use another good pitcher, though of course, don’t spend much money on it. Gotta get Drew or Peralta.
I agree, I think Uehara is one of the most underrated relievers in the league.
Really glad he’s out of the west.
Trading Weeks for one year of Peralta is a significant overpay. I’d rather just roll the dice with Nakajima/Diaz.
I think it’s more of statement about how I feel about Weeks that I don’t view it as an overpayment.
(rec)
now you lead dan by 1.
Nice writeup ec. I would prefer Drew if we could get him on a one-and-one deal. I doubt the the few million difference in what he would sign for vs. what Peralta is making is worth selling on Weeks now. I reserve the right to flip flop on that though if spending those extra few million on Drew means we couldn’t add somebody else through free agency.
As for who to spend the potential remaining $5-10 million on in some of those scenarios, I would like to see Marcum on the A’s. He’ll likely come cheaper than his talent and history merits thanks to his elbow issue last season.
Wherefore did you see the PEralta for Weeks rumor???
EDIT: Did my own damn research…
Heh, Slusser mentioned it a week ago.
I’d sign Diaz AND Nakajima. I’d explore a pitcher looking for a bounceback contract, possibly Marcum. If it’s possible to fit it in budget, I sign Youkilis.
I trade Crisp or Smith. I look high and low for a SS for this year, maybe Drew, maybe Cozart, maybe somebody we haven’t thought of. Worst comes to worst, we start Nakajima or Diaz.
Too late on Youkilis
So he’s their 3B fill-in for ARod, then moves to DH? Is that the idea?
So can we have the Chavez back?
when spring training camp breaks, he’ll still be in arizona
Oh man I forgot about that…
I agree with you on Asdrubal. Given the options, I think money for Drew is the winning move, since none of these guys are good enough to make me want to give up prospects.
Affects the A’s a little, in that yet another 2 names people talked about as a future Oakland SS go off the board.
Indians/Reds talking Choo.
If the Diamondbacks get Gregorius or Cabrera, the A’s could just ask nicely for Pennington back.
You know, I didn’t consider the “ask nicely” option.
Why doesn’t that surprise me?
(kidding, kidding)
If hate were payroll, I’d make the Dodgers look like the A’s.
If we’re going the ask nicely option, aren’t there better options out there?
Threaten to move our Spring Training site to Blythe, CA! Think to all the taxes they will lose!
I kinda like that idea. FK Arizona.
Oh, that will be attractive to free agents. “By the way, we have our spring training in Blythe. If you sign with us, you get to spend 6 weeks a year there!” This is why the Padres no longer train in Yuma.
Can’t we sell the fact that “Blythe” means “happy” or “carefree”, while downplaying the fact that it is 10 miles south of hell?
I wonder if the Indians will still plan to trade Cabrera if this goes through.
Looks like a 3 team trade has gone through. I wonder what this means for Upton and Cabrera.
Probably not much right now. Neither team acquired an immediate replacement for either of them. The price for Cabrera will still be very high.
It seems like the most active seeker of a SS this offseason (according to the rumor mill) just got their guy, so that takes a suitor out of the running for Cabrera.
I imagine that the Diamondbacks will no longer insist on Profar or Andrus for Upton now that they have Gregorius. I hope this doesn’t make a trade to Texas more likely.
I’m afraid Olt just went up on their wish list a bit
Less likely. Upton was the bait for a new SS. New SS in town, not much need to dangle Upton.
I hope that’s the outcome, rather than “we filled the SS hole, now we don’t need to insist on one when we trade Upton”
That’s what Towers says, but it’s hard to believe given his desire to purge the roster of any player with a reasonable amount of talent.
Whoa, Trevor Bauer?!
IKR.
Is Didi Gregorius that good?!? I’ve never even heard of him.
He’s Dutch, of course he is awesome.
Supposed to be very good with the glove but questions about the bat. Not much pop. Fast but doesn’t know how to steal a base. Doesn’t walk or K much.
For Trevor Bauer?!?
I’ve heard Mr. Bauer can be very stubborn.
Look at it from Indians perspective. They gave away one year of Choo for Stubbs and Bauer? Fucking A
Unreal. Vintage Beane.
When was Beane that good???
Greive, Berroa, AJ Hinch for Damon, Lidle, and MaEl.
Mulder for Haren, Barton, Calero.
Hudson fornevermindMulder had two years remaining on his contract.
The KC/Tampa three-way deserves consideration…
Mulder was traded for a better pitcher, and we got two valuable throw0ins in the deal.
Haren hadn’t established himself yet and had struggled enough in his MLB auditions to have lost some of his shiny new toy luster.
Cleveland traded one year of their RF for a near-MLB ready Top 20 prospect.
I acknowledge the point on the KC/Tampa deal.
Pierzynski for Liriano, Bonser, and Nathan.
Bedard for Jones +
Examples of non-Oakland FKn A trades???
Yeah, my memory was getting jogged.
Half a season of Bartolo for Sizemore, Phillips, and Lee always stands out to me. If for no other reason, than I was at the game in which the other Lee in that deal hit a grand slam of Magnante, thereby ending his Oakland tenure.
i miss the baseball season
They liked Penny so much in the month they’ve had him, they decided to trade Bauer for another one.
If only someone like Hanley Ramirez was being given away last year.
Yeah, right. Like that would ever happen without the A’s snatching him
Well… it’s not like you can get quality, starting short stops without giving up the #8 guy in your starting rotation.
hanley for eovaldi
gregorius for bauer
There does seem to be something hinky with the SS market these days.
Like collusion hinky or like wtf are they smoking hinky?
I’d think the latter.
Heh
I was out of town in July last year, so I missed the discussion and all the Hanley stuff, but if the A’s had to take on Hanley’s whole contract like the Dodgers did, could they afford the $15 million a year for him, especially since Beane didn’t know how the A’s were going to perform over the last two months of the season? Paying market price plus prospects for a 3 win player whose defense is precipitating a move off of SS doesn’t seem much like the A’s style. Was the consensus that Hanley will bounce back/is worth more than his contract, or was it that the A’s won’t have a chance to get a 3 win SS again in the near future so damn the monetary cost?
Umm… rumor is the Marlins were going to eat about half the salary if they dealt Hanley to Oakland. Dodgers stedded in last minute and offered to take on the whole contract.
Yeah, so I’m assuming that the A’s would have had to take on the whole contract to beat out the Dodger’s offer. Considering what we know about Loria, I don’t think he would have wanted to make up the difference in prospects.
I never heard who the A’s were giving up in the deal, so I can’t be certain.
But yeah, probably.
I think the theory was that the Dodgers only stepped in after the A’s balked at the Hanley + money deal to make sure his infected hand would be OK. In other words, the Marlins would have taken the A’s deal before receiving the Dodgers’ offer. Not sure if that’s accurate, but that was the sob story being told.
So the complaint isn’t that the A’s should have outdone the Dodger’s offer, it’s that the A’s should have moved faster before the Dodgers jumped in?
That was the way I understood the complaints at the time.
not to group think it, but that is what I understood.
Of course much of that understanding came from the FK echo chamber.
I think that’s basically what happened. A deal was in place then LA swooped in and said they’d take on all Hanley’s money.
Thanks, and go As.
Say, does this mean the D’Backs don’t need Cliffy anymore?
Best comment I’ve read on this trade: “I think the general rule of a threeway is that one person always ends up terribly disappointed.”
“The man in front isn’t getting any!”
Heh
In other words, Arizona sat there mystified thinking “Hey wait a minute, I thought WE got Bauer!!!”
Reply fail.
It won’t happen but I’d sign Pierzynski for 3/21, willing to go up to 3/25. If Drew doesn’t sign for 1/10 or less, then I just go for Nakajima/Diaz.
Yuck. I want to agree with this completely, except fuck AJ. I’ll suffer through Norris, even if it means a worse team.
Just sign Nakajima AND Diaz and hope it provides enough depth. I wanted Youk, 1B, 3B, and DH insurance….
Oh god no. This is where I step off of the rationality train.
Even putting aside personal hatred (or trying to), three years to a 36-year-old catcher seems crazy. I might have gone after Russell Martin for similar money.
Yes, I would too, but he’s off the market now and our catching situation still sucks.
To me it just seems so easy for Norris to hit 2 WAR, considering the positional advantage, that I don’t think it’s where the money should be spent. My priorities are really SS, RP, SP.
I don’t think it’s as easy as you’re making it out to be. Russell Martin played 133 games last year with a 95 wRC+ and was worth 2 WAR. We can’t reasonably expect that much production from Norris next year.
I think it is. Look at Zooks. 90 wRC+ in 2011, 2.2 WAR. 84 wRC+ in 2010 AND negative UZR, and 1.8 WAR.
Catcher already gets 2 WAR just by positional adjustment.
Thanks, and go As.
Just nitpicking – there is no UZR for catchers
whatever they list on fangraphs under fielding. I’m too tired to care this morning.
Thanks, and go As.
Sure, if you think Norris can put up a wRC+ around 90.
I don’t see why not.
Thanks, and go As.
By the same token AJ has only hit 2 WAR three times in his last 9 seasons.
If that’s really the best veteran option, I’d roll the dice with the kid.
I don’t understand the Pierzynski hate. Is he a wife beater like Brett Myers? Is he a total lunatic like Milton? Has he written homophobic slurs and caused clubhouse problems like Yunel? Is he unabashedly racist like Luke Scott?
As far as I can tell, Pierzynski’s sins are that he talks a lot of shit to opposing players and he once pissed off the Giants 9 years ago (which quite frankly, is a plus in my book). Yet he’s hated a lot more than those other players who have characteristics that are, IMO, quite a bit more unlikable.
I actually liked listening to him on the radio.
Thanks, and go As.
Speaking only for myself, it’s just a bitter grudge I hold from the 2002 playoffs.
this (also, FK Billy Koch)
I would not trust him for 2 years, let alone three, but Damn, looking at the next two years of Norris plus whatever scrap heap, yeah a second AJ year can’t be that bad.
there has to be a better option in two years, no?
The dude we got in the Suzuki trade might be ready by then. He hit very well in his month in Midland.
He’s hit well everywhere actually. He walks a lot and doesn’t strike out much. He’s older though. He’ll be 24 all next year.
This is the problem I have with following prospects anymore. Saying he’s “older” at 24?!?! Makes me feel ancient!
Watch out. This is the line of thinking that led Elmo so badly astray.
Which is why I’m glad the A’s immediately pushed him to AA last year, and why he should be in AAA by the middle of 2013. He’s just the right age for a non-superstar catching prospect at his level. The question is can he actually catch.
Does anyone really expect the Wet Blanket to really post anything near what he accomplished in 12′?
He hadn’t performed anywhere near that level since 2003 and his power came out of nowhere which is a bit odd for a 37 yr old…
Ugh, sometimes I really miss preview…
I couldn’t handle this. And I cheered for Kenny fucking Rogers.
Updated to reflect Nakajima signng and Drew buyout. Current projected 2013 opening payroll is $57MM